Seguimiento general en EEUU

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stormchaserAlberto
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor stormchaserAlberto » Sab Nov 18, 2017 4:58 pm

Tiraron más al este el área de tiempo severo, siguiendo el avance del frente frío.
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% de tornados.
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Viento.
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Granizo.
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Discusión.
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Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

Valid 182000Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO
AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA INTO OHIO...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts, marginal hail, or a
brief tornado remain possible this afternoon across parts of the
Ohio and Tennessee Valley regions, and into northern Mississippi and
Alabama.

...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys...
A line of storms currently extends from west central Ohio
southwestward into northeast Arkansas along a strong cold front.
Ahead of this line exists a narrow corridor of instability, with the
greatest theta-e air into the lower Mississippi Valley where
temperatures are approaching 80. Despite weak instability, very
strong mean wind fields may produce gusts at or above severe levels
anywhere along the line. For more information see Mesoscale
Discussion 1770.

..Jewell.. 11/18/2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017/

...OH/TN Valley Region...
Water vapor imagery shows a vigorous upper trough moving rapidly
eastward across the Central Plains. Large scale forcing ahead of
this feature is overspreading the mid MS and lower OH valleys, and
should result in scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Storms will be
focused along a cold front - initially over central/southern IL and
southeast MO. This activity will spread eastward through the
evening hours into parts of IN/KY/TN. Wind fields are very strong,
and are supportive of organized storms with bowing and supercell
structures. However, low-level moisture and CAPE are quite limited
today with dewpoints only in the 50s to lower 60s, and MUCAPE values
below 1000 J/kg. Considerable cloud cover and slightly veered
low-level winds are also negatives for a more robust severe event.
Nevertheless, the initial storms over IL/MO and western KY/TN may
produce large hail, with the risk of damaging winds increasing
through the event farther east. A tornado or two is also possible
in early supercells, and along the QLCS later today.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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Mesoscale Discussion 1770
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0148 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

Areas affected...Western KY to Southwest OH

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 516...

Valid 181948Z - 182045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 516
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe threat is shifting east across WW516. Damaging
winds remain possible.

DISCUSSION...Frontal convection has gradually matured into a
near-continuous squall line currently observed from central IN,
southwest into western KY. This line of storms is progressing
east-southeast near 30kt and should continue this motion across the
remainder of WW516. This activity will soon advance east of greatest
instability axis but damaging winds remain possible as environmental
shear remains strong.

..Darrow.. 11/18/2017

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Mesoscale Discussion 1771
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0318 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

Areas affected...Western and Middle TN...northern MS and northern AL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 182118Z - 182315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A few severe wind gusts will remain possible across Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 517 through 01Z. In addition, some risk for
strong/severe gusts will exist south of the watch area over northern
portions of MS and AL. Radar and storm report trends will be
monitored and a local watch extension or a new Severe Thunderstorm
Watch may be needed.

DISCUSSION...The southward extension of a line of strong/severe
thunderstorms extended from Stewart County TN southwest across
northwest MS at 2110Z. Thus far, storms have remained mostly below
severe limits across WW 517, however recent radar trends show a
solidifying line with a more pronounced leading edge reflectivity
gradient. Thus, in the presence of weak surface-based instability
and strong low-mid-level southwesterly wind fields the risk for
widely scattered damaging gusts should continue through 01Z as the
line moves towards Middle TN.

Farther south, a few breaks in cloud cover have allowed slightly
greater surfaced-based instability across northern MS, where storms
have been gradually strengthening since 20Z. Low-mid level wind
fields will be supportive of some severe potential in this area, and
a local watch extension may be needed across southern portions of
the WFO Memphis County Warning Area. Although cloud cover remains
well established farther east across northern AL, at least some risk
for strong/severe gusts may develop as the fast-moving line of
storms progresses east through this evening aided by strong frontal
forcing.

..Bunting/Hart.. 11/18/2017

Ya está por terminar este corto episodio de mal tiempo. Muchos reportes de granizo e inundaciones.
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Mesoscale Discussion 1772
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0444 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

Areas affected...central Kentucky...far southeast Indiana...and
southwest Ohio

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 516...

Valid 182244Z - 182345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 516
continues.

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to move east through the early
evening. Isolated wind damage will be possible with some of these
storms. Severe Thunderstorm Watch #516 has been extended in time to
01Z.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue along an eastward moving cold
front. Ahead of the front, a narrow tongue of weak buoyancy remains.
Here, most-unstable CAPE values generally less than 250 J/kg will
support thunderstorms for a few more hours; at least until the cold
front out runs the last of the instability. Despite the weak
buoyancy, strong low-level wind fields will allow for at least some
downward momentum transport within the line of thunderstorms, giving
risk to the potential for local wind damage. Therefore, after
coordination with local offices, Severe Thunderstorm Watch #516 has
been extended in time until 01Z for primarily southern portions of
the watch. Northern areas should be able to be removed from the
watch prior to new expiration time. After 01Z, thunderstorms should
have moved through the axis of appreciable instability and an
overall weakening/dissipating trend is expected. Additional watches
downstream are not likely.

..Marsh.. 11/18/2017

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Mesoscale Discussion 1773
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0524 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

Areas affected...Portions of Tennessee and northern Alabama

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 517...

Valid 182324Z - 190130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 517
continues.

SUMMARY...A squall line will continue east within and near Watch 517
this evening, with an attendant threat of a few damaging gusts and
perhaps a tornado. The line should gradually weaken with eastward
extent this evening, such that downstream watch issuance is not
currently anticipated.

DISCUSSION...A nearly continuous line of thunderstorms is advancing
across Tennessee and northern Alabama early this evening. Over the
last hour, there was a localized uptick in tornado potential
south/east of the Nashville area, with three distinct tornadic
debris signatures in Rutherford, Wilson, and Trousdale counties.
While cells will continue to outpace remaining low-level buoyancy,
impressive low-level shear may still yield a quick tornado across
Middle Tennessee over the next hour. Otherwise, an isolated damaging
wind threat will likely persist through the 01Z expiration time of
Watch 517.

Farther south, convection has at times consolidated into a few
stronger segments over northern Alabama. Local observations have yet
to indicate severe wind gusts, but considering the strength of
low-level flow and presence of weak mixed-layer CAPE, isolated
damage will remain possible for the next couple hours, before
surface-based buoyancy is shunted farther south.

..Picca.. 11/18/2017
Dome, dome, dome..The life is a dome

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mateix
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor mateix » Lun Nov 20, 2017 9:58 pm

Las temperaturas comienzan a normalizarse en NYC luego de un octubre récord.
http://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?i ... enviar=Ver

La media hasta hoy es de 8º, y se espera un FF relativamente importante para la época entre el 26 y 27, el cual podría dejar alguna que otra media en torno a los 0º.

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Ernest
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Ubicación: Villa Urquiza, Ciudad de Buenos Aires

Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor Ernest » Vie Nov 24, 2017 6:52 pm

No es algo tan loco, pero en la costa californiana anduvieron con temperaturas máximas de 30-36º ayer, batiendo algunos récords diarios (del Día de Acción de Gracias). Fue un día bastante cálido en general en el centro y oeste de USA.

http://www.weathernationtv.com/news/rec ... iving-day/
Did you want to talk about the weather, or were you just making chitchat?

Mi página en facebook: MeteoMundo

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stormchaserAlberto
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor stormchaserAlberto » Sab Nov 25, 2017 1:07 pm

Un par de discusiones del tiempo severo que se dio el jueves en Florida, por el paso de una onda corta.
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Mesoscale Discussion 1774
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0438 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

Areas affected...A small part of the southwest FL Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 231038Z - 231215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A small window of time exists (between 11-13Z) for a
potential brief waterspout and/or tornado to develop and move across
the islands of Captiva and Pine northward, and could affect the
coastal areas of northern Lee and Charlotte counties.

DISCUSSION...Trends in the NWS radar at Tampa through 1030Z
indicated strengthening of a low-level rotational couplet embedded
within a cluster of storms which extended from 25 W FMY to 60 WSW
FMY. Lower tropospheric winds across the west coast of FL (per
trends in VWP data at TBW since 06Z) indicated strengthening in the
lowest 3 km, given the approach of a trough from the central Gulf of
Mexico. This has resulted in likely strengthening of the offshore
baroclinic zone attendant to the land breeze, while low-level
hodograph curvature has also increased since the 00Z TBW RAOB.
As the aforementioned low-level circulation continues to cross the
baroclinic zone, further strengthening is possible with waterspout
and/or tornado development. An east-northeast track of this storm
cluster will bring it across the islands and coastal areas of
northern Lee and Charlotte counties from 11-13Z. A stable
environment located farther inland from the coast suggests any
stronger, organized storms will weaken with eastward movement.

..Peters/Edwards.. 11/23/2017

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Mesoscale Discussion 1775
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

Areas affected...Central coastal and inland areas of the western FL
Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 231340Z - 231615Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A broken band of thunderstorms in the far eastern Gulf of
Mexico could pose a risk for a brief tornado and/or locally strong
wind gust, as they reach the central coast of western Florida around
15Z and advance inland.

DISCUSSION...At 1320Z, mosaic radar imagery showed a broken band of
storms located west of the FL coast, extending from 40 W PIE to 45
SW SRQ, with a couple embedded, persistent low-level rotational
couplets. This band of storms appears to be supported by the leading
extent of DPVA attendant to the central Gulf of Mexico trough and
within a low-level zone of convergence. Despite a cirrus shield,
attendant to the offshore band of storms, spreading downstream
across west-central FL (the discussion area) limiting surface
heating, an ongoing gradual increase in surface dew points should
aid in some destabilization. Although recent VWP at TBW indicated
veering low-level winds, hodograph curvature remains sufficient
(0-1-km SRH near 200 m2/s2) to support a marginal risk for a tornado
and/or locally strong wind gust as the storms reach the central
portion of the western FL coast around 15Z.

Uncertainty remains with how far inland these threats will be
possible, as the aforementioned clouds and limited destabilization
could preclude any organized storms from reaching too far inland.

..Peters/Edwards.. 11/23/2017

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Mesoscale Discussion 1776
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1223 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

Areas affected...central Florida

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 231823Z - 232030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Threat for a couple of damaging wind events and a brief
tornado will persist through mid afternoon, primarily in a narrow
corridor across north central FL. Overall threat appears too
marginal for a WW.

DISCUSSION...Storms have undergone some intensification as they
moved onshore just north of Tampa, possibly due to interaction of
attendant ne-sw oriented convergence boundary with the seabreeze.
Stationary front extends from just north of Tampa to north of
Melbourne, and visible imagery shows thinning cirrus, allowing
modest diabatic warming of the boundary layer in the warm sector
where MLCAPE ranges from 500 to 800 J/kg over central FL. Models
indicate there should be some tendency for low-level winds to veer
and weaken as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves east of the
peninsula later this afternoon. In the meantime, the more favorable
low-level hodographs with 150-250 storm-relative helicity will
persist in vicinity of the stationary front. Storms moving east and
interacting with this boundary may develop occasional supercell
structures and bowing segments, posing a risk for locally strong to
damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado. The marginal thermodynamic
environment and tendency for the low-level winds to veer and weaken
later this afternoon suggest overall threat should remain limited.

..Dial/Hart.. 11/23/2017
Dome, dome, dome..The life is a dome

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Cristofer
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor Cristofer » Sab Nov 25, 2017 11:49 pm

stormchaserAlberto escribió:Un par de discusiones del tiempo severo que se dio el jueves en Florida, por el paso de una onda corta.
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Mesoscale Discussion 1774
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0438 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

Areas affected...A small part of the southwest FL Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 231038Z - 231215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A small window of time exists (between 11-13Z) for a
potential brief waterspout and/or tornado to develop and move across
the islands of Captiva and Pine northward, and could affect the
coastal areas of northern Lee and Charlotte counties.

DISCUSSION...Trends in the NWS radar at Tampa through 1030Z
indicated strengthening of a low-level rotational couplet embedded
within a cluster of storms which extended from 25 W FMY to 60 WSW
FMY. Lower tropospheric winds across the west coast of FL (per
trends in VWP data at TBW since 06Z) indicated strengthening in the
lowest 3 km, given the approach of a trough from the central Gulf of
Mexico. This has resulted in likely strengthening of the offshore
baroclinic zone attendant to the land breeze, while low-level
hodograph curvature has also increased since the 00Z TBW RAOB.
As the aforementioned low-level circulation continues to cross the
baroclinic zone, further strengthening is possible with waterspout
and/or tornado development. An east-northeast track of this storm
cluster will bring it across the islands and coastal areas of
northern Lee and Charlotte counties from 11-13Z. A stable
environment located farther inland from the coast suggests any
stronger, organized storms will weaken with eastward movement.

..Peters/Edwards.. 11/23/2017

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Mesoscale Discussion 1775
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

Areas affected...Central coastal and inland areas of the western FL
Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 231340Z - 231615Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A broken band of thunderstorms in the far eastern Gulf of
Mexico could pose a risk for a brief tornado and/or locally strong
wind gust, as they reach the central coast of western Florida around
15Z and advance inland.

DISCUSSION...At 1320Z, mosaic radar imagery showed a broken band of
storms located west of the FL coast, extending from 40 W PIE to 45
SW SRQ, with a couple embedded, persistent low-level rotational
couplets. This band of storms appears to be supported by the leading
extent of DPVA attendant to the central Gulf of Mexico trough and
within a low-level zone of convergence. Despite a cirrus shield,
attendant to the offshore band of storms, spreading downstream
across west-central FL (the discussion area) limiting surface
heating, an ongoing gradual increase in surface dew points should
aid in some destabilization. Although recent VWP at TBW indicated
veering low-level winds, hodograph curvature remains sufficient
(0-1-km SRH near 200 m2/s2) to support a marginal risk for a tornado
and/or locally strong wind gust as the storms reach the central
portion of the western FL coast around 15Z.

Uncertainty remains with how far inland these threats will be
possible, as the aforementioned clouds and limited destabilization
could preclude any organized storms from reaching too far inland.

..Peters/Edwards.. 11/23/2017

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Mesoscale Discussion 1776
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1223 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

Areas affected...central Florida

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 231823Z - 232030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Threat for a couple of damaging wind events and a brief
tornado will persist through mid afternoon, primarily in a narrow
corridor across north central FL. Overall threat appears too
marginal for a WW.

DISCUSSION...Storms have undergone some intensification as they
moved onshore just north of Tampa, possibly due to interaction of
attendant ne-sw oriented convergence boundary with the seabreeze.
Stationary front extends from just north of Tampa to north of
Melbourne, and visible imagery shows thinning cirrus, allowing
modest diabatic warming of the boundary layer in the warm sector
where MLCAPE ranges from 500 to 800 J/kg over central FL. Models
indicate there should be some tendency for low-level winds to veer
and weaken as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves east of the
peninsula later this afternoon. In the meantime, the more favorable
low-level hodographs with 150-250 storm-relative helicity will
persist in vicinity of the stationary front. Storms moving east and
interacting with this boundary may develop occasional supercell
structures and bowing segments, posing a risk for locally strong to
damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado. The marginal thermodynamic
environment and tendency for the low-level winds to veer and weaken
later this afternoon suggest overall threat should remain limited.

..Dial/Hart.. 11/23/2017


EL JUEVES!!!! hoy es Sabado, cual es el finde publicarlo dos días despues y más si no fué un evento significativo??? :roll:
No te olvides de visitar: AFICIONADOS A LA METEOROLOGIA ARGENTINA

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stormchaserAlberto
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor stormchaserAlberto » Lun Dic 04, 2017 3:38 pm

Bueno. Hoy, tenemos una zona en riesgo leve por tiempo severo y hay otra con blizzard. 2% de tornados, entre 5% y 15% de vientos destructivos y 5% de granizo.
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Discusión.
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Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1027 AM CST Mon Dec 04 2017

Valid 041630Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM EASTERN OK AND NORTHWESTERN AR TO
NORTHEASTERN MO...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT FROM SOUTHEASTERN IA/NORTHWESTERN IL TO EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN TX AND AR...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across eastern
Oklahoma and the Ark-La-Tex region into Missouri and southeast
Iowa/northwest Illinois late this afternoon into tonight.

...Synopsis...
A surface cyclone in southwest MN this morning will move toward Lake
Superior by tonight, with rapid deepening expected in response to
strong deep-layer forcing for ascent within the left exit region of
a 130 kt upper jet streak. An associated surface cold front will
surge southeastward in the wake of the cyclone and cross the mid MS
Valley and southern Plains by the end of this forecast period. In
advance of the cold front, a narrow moist sector with boundary-layer
dewpoints in the mid 50s into IA and mid-upper 60s in TX, will
continue to spread northeastward through the day. Though surface
heating will be tempered by widespread clouds, the low-level
moisture and remnant steep midlevel lapse rates will support at
least weak surface-based buoyancy as far northeast as parts of
IA/IL.

...Mid MS Valley to the Ozarks through tonight...
Thunderstorm development is expected in a band along the cold front
from mid-late afternoon (21-23z). It appears there will be a 2-4
hour window of opportunity for damaging winds (and perhaps an
isolated tornado) this evening as far northeast as southeast IA and
northwest IL, given buoyancy rooted at the surface and 50-60 kt flow
just above the surface. Strong deep-layer shear may support
embedded supercells within the line for a few hours this evening.
The frontal convection will maintain intensity longer from eastern
OK into AR, where mid 60s dewpoints will drive at least weak
buoyancy into tonight. However, the convection will become more
anafrontal with time and low-level flow will veer/weaken, which will
limit the southwestward extent of any severe-storm threat.

..Thompson/Bunting.. 12/04/2017

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Un par de vigilancias por tormentas severas.
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Mesoscale Discussion 1780
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0357 PM CST Mon Dec 04 2017

Areas affected...Much of southwest...central and northeast
MO...extreme southeast KS...and extreme west central IL

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 518...

Valid 042157Z - 042330Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 518
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe storms will continue to develop across severe
thunderstorm watch 518 as a cold front advances east through this
region. Damaging winds remain the primary threat, though a brief
tornado cannot be ruled out. Counties can be cleared from the west
with the cold front passage.

DISCUSSION...At 2140Z, mosaic radar imagery indicated a broken band
of strong to severe storms extending from north-central to southwest
MO, with additional storms in extreme southeast KS. This activity
will continue to advance through a narrow corridor of generally
marginal instability (surface-based CAPE less than 1000 J/kg).
Strong effective bulk shear up to 50 kt is supporting organized
storms with a few supercells detected per area WSR-88Ds. SGF VWP
indicated vertically veering and strengthening low-level winds which
favor a threat for damaging winds, while a tornado risk cannot be
ruled out, though weak buoyancy may temper the latter threat.

..Peters.. 12/04/2017
Dome, dome, dome..The life is a dome

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stormchaserAlberto
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor stormchaserAlberto » Lun Dic 04, 2017 9:00 pm

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Mesoscale Discussion 1781
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0534 PM CST Mon Dec 04 2017

Areas affected...Portions of eastern OK and western/central AR

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 519...

Valid 042334Z - 050100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 519
continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated threat for mainly strong to damaging winds
should continue across WW 519 for the next several hours. Downstream
watch issuance into more of western/central AR will probably not be
needed.

DISCUSSION...Mosaic radar imagery from 2330Z depicts a broken line
of thunderstorms extending along and just ahead of a surface cold
front across eastern OK into far northwestern AR. Several other
thunderstorms have recently developed across southwestern AR within
the open warm sector. A few cells within the broken line have
exhibited supercell characteristics over the past several hours,
with sporadic large hail and strong/damaging winds being reported.
The airmass immediately downstream of this ongoing convection should
remain favorable for maintenance of severe thunderstorms in the
short term, as MLCAPE around 500 J/kg and effective bulk shear
values of 40-50 kt are present across western AR. A tornado cannot
be completely ruled out given veering low-level winds supporting
effective SRH around 275-325 m2/s2. However, the primary severe
threat will likely transition to strong/damaging winds as the
surface cold front overtakes ongoing convection, with these
thunderstorms quickly growing upscale into a southeastward-moving
squall line.

While some severe threat may exist to the east of WW 519, cooler
surface temperatures and less low-level moisture is present with
eastward extent across central AR. Resultant instability likewise
wanes into central AR. Coupled with the loss of diurnal heating
which should further reduce already weak instability, the small
spatial severe threat to the east of WW 519 may become too marginal
over the next several hours to justify a new WW in central AR.

..Gleason.. 12/04/2017

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Mesoscale Discussion 1782
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0605 PM CST Mon Dec 04 2017

Areas affected...parts of Missouri and adjacent west-central
Illinois

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 518...

Valid 050005Z - 050200Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 518
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe risk -- mainly in the form of gusty winds --
continues locally within WW 518.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a somewhat broken line of
storms along the advancing cold front, with gradual decreases in
intensity noted over the past hour. With surface analyses showing a
gradually cooling boundary layer, and afternoon special RAOBs
showing that cooling to have a very deleterious effect on available
CAPE, expect the decreasing trend in updraft intensity to continue.
While a locally damaging gust will be possible with a few stronger
elements within the convective band over the next 1-2 hours, risk
should gradually diminish -- and appreciable risk is not expected to
extend east of the current WW.

..Goss.. 12/05/2017

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Mesoscale Discussion 1783
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0122 AM CST Tue Dec 05 2017

Areas affected...Portions of far eastern Texas...central/northern
Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 050722Z - 050845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A brief tornado could occur over the next 1-2 hours.
However, the threat should be relatively transient/confined,
precluding watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar data illustrate a cluster of convective
cells from eastern Texas to northern Louisiana early this morning,
ahead of a cold front pushing southeast across the Arklatex.
Developing within a modest low-level warm-advection/confluent
regime, these cells are likely being aided by a weak southern-stream
impulse currently crossing the upper Texas coast. KPOE VWP data
depict some veering with height through the lowest 2 km, with 0-1km
storm-relative helicity around 150 m2/s2. Several of these cells
have occasionally exhibited weak rotation, and this trend may
continue for the next hour or two. Therefore, despite weak buoyancy
(evidenced by a lack of CG lightning), a favorably moist boundary
layer may support a brief tornado. However, as low-level flow
continues to veer this morning, this potential should diminish with
decreasing shear.

..Picca/Guyer.. 12/05/2017
Dome, dome, dome..The life is a dome

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maxi_rosario_eche21
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor maxi_rosario_eche21 » Mié Dic 06, 2017 4:21 pm

Alberto. Busca info de los incendios en LA, no de tormentas aisladas que no suman

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stormchaserAlberto
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor stormchaserAlberto » Mié Dic 06, 2017 7:19 pm

Increíbles incendios están afectando a zonas del lago Casitas en California. Hay más de 30.000 personas evacuadas y 150 viviendas destruidas.
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Dome, dome, dome..The life is a dome

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Ale de Castelar
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor Ale de Castelar » Mié Dic 06, 2017 8:12 pm

De ciencia ficcion

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