Seguimiento general en EEUU

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stormchaserAlberto
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor stormchaserAlberto » Sab Oct 14, 2017 11:10 pm

Bajaron el riesgo a leve para lo que resta de esta noche y la madrugada.
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% de tornados.
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% de viento.
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Granizo.
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Discusión.
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Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Valid 150100Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN MI...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening and overnight from
parts of the south-central Plains to the upper Great Lakes region.
Damaging wind gusts and occasional hail are possible.

...Central Plains into the upper Great Lakes region...
Outlook was trimmed from the west based on progression of the front.
Current expectation is for the activity just ahead of the front from
eastern KS into northeast MO will continue to track northeastward.
Some updraft intensification and/or increased forward-propagation is
possible as the front catches up with these storms. Primary severe
threat during that time will be damaging wind gusts. Afterward,
undercutting nature of the quickly progressing front and translation
of the best forcing for ascent away from the region will lead to
diminishing storm intensity. More details are available from MD
1716.

Farther north (across northern IL), several outflow-dominant storms
are progressing eastward across the region in a bowing cluster.
Despite unfavorable thermodynamics, overall storm trends have shown
fairly consistent strength over the last half hour or so, suggesting
the cluster is well-organized. As such, the system will likely
continue eastward/northeastward for the next few hours. Even so,
stable surface conditions suggest the severe threat will be fairly
limited, with the exception of areas closer to central IL where some
airmass recovery is possible just ahead of the approaching cluster.

...Southern Plains...
A few strong wind gusts are possible with any convection that
develops along the front but most of the activity is expected to be
elevated behind the front.

..Mosier.. 10/15/2017

Se actualiza a las 06:00z.
-------------------------------------------------
Últimas discusiones a mesoescala.
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Mesoscale Discussion 1714
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0601 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Areas affected...Northern Illinois and adjacent portions of the
Upper Midwest

Concerning...Tornado Watch 501...

Valid 142301Z - 150030Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 501 continues.

SUMMARY...The risk for potentially damaging wind gusts and perhaps a
couple of tornadoes is expected to increase across much of northern
Illinois, including the Chicago metropolitan area through 7-10 PM
CDT. An additional watch or watch extension will probably be needed
eastward into the Chicago metro area.

DISCUSSION...Within moderate to strong southwesterly mid/upper flow,
ahead of a significant short wave trough now turning east of the
Rockies, forcing for ascent associated with a smaller scale
perturbation is contributing to the evolution of at least one
distinct mesoscale convective system. The bulk of this activity has
spread east of the Mississippi River and appears likely to continue
progressing northeastward into the Great Lakes region this evening.
As it does, inflow of weak to moderately unstable warm sector air
likely will support further convective intensification through the
01-03Z time frame.

Strongest storms seem likely to become focused along a remnant
convectively generated or enhanced boundary near/north of Interstate
74 into the Interstate 80 corridor of northern Illinois. This is
where a zone of low-level warm advection will enhance large-scale
ascent, and low-level shear will become maximized as southerly 850
mb flow continues to strengthen to 50+ kt, in conjunction with
further deepening of the surface cyclone migrating northeast of
central Iowa.

The risk for potentially damaging wind gusts seems likely to
increase with the evolving convective system across northern
Illinois during the next few hours, and could impact at least
southern portions, if not much, of the Chicago metropolitan area by
around 02Z. Further, an isolated supercell or two within, or
perhaps forming discretely ahead of the line, may be accompanied by
potential for tornadoes as low-level hodographs enlarge.

..Kerr.. 10/14/2017

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Mesoscale Discussion 1715
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0623 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Areas affected...West central through northeast Missouri

Concerning...Tornado Watch 501...

Valid 142323Z - 150100Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 501 continues.

SUMMARY...The risk for damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of
tornadoes, is expected to increase with thunderstorms spreading
across central into northeast Missouri through 8-9 PM CDT.

DISCUSSION...In the wake of one smaller scale short wave
perturbation migrating northeastward into the Upper Midwest, another
impulse on its heels is migrating rapidly into/through the lower
Missouri Valley. Forcing with this feature appears to be providing
the support for an evolving convective system south through east of
the Kansas City metropolitan area, which seems likely to intensify
further, through the 01-02Z time frame, aided by continued inflow of
weak to moderately unstable warm sector air. In conjunction with
continued deepening of a surface cyclone across Iowa into the Upper
Midwest, south/southwesterly 850 mb flow is forecast to strengthen
in excess of 50 kt as far south of the lower Missouri Valley.
Enlarging low-level hodographs are expected to contribute to
increasing damaging wind potential with the convective activity,
along with at least some potential for tornadoes.

..Kerr.. 10/14/2017

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Mesoscale Discussion 1716
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0732 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Areas affected...Southeast KS...Far Southwest MO

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 500...

Valid 150032Z - 150200Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 500
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for locally damaging wind and perhaps
marginally severe hail continues across southeast KS. While storms
will eventually move into southwest MO, a weakening trend is
expected later this evening as a cold front sweeps through the area.

DISCUSSION...Multiple potentially severe bowing segments have
evolved across southeast KS over the last 1-2 hours. With moderate
instability and relatively strong low-level flow and effective shear
in place, these features will continue to pose a threat of damaging
wind and localized hail for the next 1-2 hours as they move into
southeast KS and west-central MO. The strongest of the bowing
segments is likely to move east-northeast into Tornado Watch 501,
while the trailing segments will eventually impact the remainder of
southeast KS into southwest MO.

A strong cold front is approaching the southeast KS from the north
and will overtake the strongest convection by mid-evening. With the
strongest large-scale ascent moving northeast away from the region
and weaker moisture and instability with eastward extent (as noted
in 00Z SGF sounding), a weakening trend is expected with time as
convection becomes increasingly undercut over southwest MO. Some
local extension of the WW 500 may be required in the short term
across southwest MO, but at this time new watch issuance is
unlikely.

..Dean/Guyer.. 10/15/2017

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Mesoscale Discussion 1717
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0904 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Areas affected...Parts of south/east central Missouri...central and
northeast Illinois...northern Indiana

Concerning...Tornado Watch 501...

Valid 150204Z - 150330Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 501 continues.

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms may continue to be accompanied by a risk for
potentially damaging wind gusts as the develop eastward late this
evening into the overnight hours. However, this risk is expected to
become considerably more spotty or localized after 10-11 PM CDT.

DISCUSSION...With weak to negligible mid-level cooling across the
warm sector, the loss of daytime heating is resulting in waning
boundary layer instability across the lower Missouri Valley into the
southern Great Lakes region. By 03-04Z, this may begin to result in
more rapid weakening convective trends. Until then, though, the
more vigorous lingering thunderstorm activity remains focused ahead
of the southeastward advancing cold front, and will continue to be
accompanied by a risk for potentially damaging surface gusts. Warm
sector lower/mid tropospheric wind fields continue to strengthen to
40-50+ kt, in response to further surface cyclone development across
Iowa into the Upper Midwest, where a more rapid deepening of the low
center is still expected overnight. As a result, some risk for
damaging surface gusts may persist beyond 03-04Z in lingering
convection spreading into the lower Ohio Valley/southern Great Lakes
region. But this likely will become increasingly localized in
nature.

..Kerr.. 10/15/2017
Dome, dome, dome..The life is a dome

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stormchaserAlberto
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor stormchaserAlberto » Dom Oct 15, 2017 12:44 am

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Mesoscale Discussion 1718
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0946 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Areas affected...Portions of western...central...and northeast OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 150246Z - 150415Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A marginal risk of severe hail and wind will continue into
the late evening. Watch issuance is not currently anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Strong thunderstorms have recently developed across
portions of western OK, with weaker convection developing in the
wake of a fast-moving cold front across northern OK. The strongest
storm across Washita County OK is currently located ahead of the
front and appears to have developed out of a midlevel ACCAS field.
MU CAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg and effective shear of 30-40 kts will
continue to support occasionally organized storm structures capable
of marginally severe hail with the strongest cores. Relatively
strong low/mid-level flow will also support the potential for
localized severe wind gusts (as recently observed at KCSM), mainly
with convection that is ahead of, along, or just immediately behind
the surging cold front. With time, convection will become
increasingly undercut by the front, resulting in a decrease in storm
intensity later tonight.

..Dean/Guyer.. 10/15/2017
Dome, dome, dome..The life is a dome

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stormchaserAlberto
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor stormchaserAlberto » Dom Oct 15, 2017 1:59 pm

Riesgo leve de tiempo severo hoy para el oeste de Nueva York y el norte de Pennsylvania. Viento como riesgo más importante.
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Discusión.
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Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1104 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Valid 151630Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
NORTHWEST PA AND WESTERN NY...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN OH
INTO EASTERN NY...

...SUMMARY...
A narrow band of showers and thunderstorms may produce damaging
gusts near severe levels over parts of the lower Great Lakes region,
this afternoon into early evening.

...Lower Great Lakes Region...
No substantial changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. A
large upper trough is moving across the MS Valley today, with its
associated cold front stretching from southeast Lower MI into OH/IN.
Strong southwesterly low-level winds ahead of the front will
maintain 60s dewpoints across western NY/PA as the boundary
approaches later this afternoon and evening, with MLCAPE values
generally below 500 J/kg. 12z models are in agreement that a
fine-line of showers and a few thunderstorms will develop along the
front and spread across the SLGT risk area. Forecast soundings show
favorable low-level wind fields and low-level lapse rates for gusty
winds along the leading edge. However, weak CAPE and poor mid-level
lapse rates provide uncertainty regarding the vigor of updrafts and
even the extent of lightning along the line. A few near-severe wind
gusts appear possible this afternoon and evening, before the
activity moves into a stable environment over eastern NY and VT
after dark.

..Hart/Cook.. 10/15/2017

Se actualiza nuevamente a las 20z.
Dome, dome, dome..The life is a dome

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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor stormchaserAlberto » Dom Oct 15, 2017 4:20 pm

En cualquier momento, se viene un watch.
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Mesoscale Discussion 1719
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0203 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Areas affected...From eastern Ohio across Pennsylvania and into
western/central New York

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 151903Z - 152000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A narrow line of low-topped showers and thunderstorms will
develop eastward with a threat of strong to severe wind gusts this
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Multiple segments of low-topped showers and storms are
developing from southwest Ontario into eastern Ohio along an
intensifying cold front. The strongest area of lift currently exists
over Canada, and this is where sporadic lightning activity is
occurring.

Surface observations show gradually warming temperatures, with
dewpoints in the lower 60s. The deeper moist plume exists mainly
just ahead of the front, with drier air/lower PW values from the
Appalachians into New England. Temperatures aloft are not very cold
except for well behind the front into Michigan, leading to only weak
CAPE values. In addition, much of the instability exists mainly in
the parts of the atmosphere.

With mean winds in excess of 40 kt in the lowest few km, these
showers and storms along the cold front will likely transfer
momentum to the surface with 40-50 mph wind gusts possible, and
perhaps an isolated severe gust. The most likely area for severe
winds would appear to be over New York where mean wind speeds are
strongest, and in closest proximity to the shortwave trough. In
addition, veering winds with height and sufficient SRH may result in
embedded areas of rotation in QLCS fashion. This, however, will be
dependent on sufficient instability being present. Ample heating
over NY lends some confidence of this possibility.

..Jewell/Hart.. 10/15/2017
Dome, dome, dome..The life is a dome

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mateix
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor mateix » Dom Oct 15, 2017 8:54 pm

¿Octubre récord en la Gran Manzana?

Miren qué locura son esas T...

http://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?i ... enviar=Ver

-8 días con media > 20 :shock:
-8 días seguidos con máxima > 25 :shock: :shock:
-3 días seguidos con mínima >20 :shock: :shock: :o
-Mínima absoluta: 11º
-Máxima más baja: 18º3


La media, hasta hoy, viene siendo de 20ºC.

Sin palabras. Insólito.
En términos comparativos, nada que envidiarle al abril 2015 en CABA.

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stormchaserAlberto
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor stormchaserAlberto » Dom Oct 15, 2017 11:12 pm

mateix escribió:¿Octubre récord en la Gran Manzana?

Miren qué locura son esas T...

http://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?i ... enviar=Ver

-8 días con media > 20 :shock:
-8 días seguidos con máxima > 25 :shock: :shock:
-3 días seguidos con mínima >20 :shock: :shock: :o
-Mínima absoluta: 11º
-Máxima más baja: 18º3


La media, hasta hoy, viene siendo de 20ºC.

Sin palabras. Insólito.
En términos comparativos, nada que envidiarle al abril 2015 en CABA.

Muy templado viene octubre por ahí. En un rato, le va a estar llegando un frente frío, que va a dejar un descenso de algunos grados en las temperaturas. La máxima de mañana, va a rondar los 19ºC y se puede dar en la madrugada. Mínima de 10ºC. 15ºC y 7ºC de extremas el martes, para después regresar a los 20's.
Dome, dome, dome..The life is a dome

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mateix
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor mateix » Dom Oct 15, 2017 11:26 pm

stormchaserAlberto escribió:La máxima de mañana, va a rondar los 19ºC y se puede dar en la madrugada. Mínima de 10ºC. 15ºC y 7ºC de extremas el martes, para después regresar a los 20's.


Exacto.
Se prevee una leve refrescada -levísima, para los estándares del otoño neoyorquino-, a la que seguirá otro período templado.
Al menos, eso es lo que ve el Weather Channel de acá a 10 días.
Aun con las esperables variaciones, es por demás elocuente lo cálido que vendrá el mes.

Stormy
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor Stormy » Lun Oct 16, 2017 1:21 am

Hay que ver cómo lo terminan, que allá los cambios de tendencia pueden llegar a ser muy abruptos. Igual, lo que tuvieron en diciembre de 2015 (tan cálido como nuestro junio del año pasado, un delirio) es inigualable.
mateix escribió:pamperos que hacen disparar la T...

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Santiago Linari
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor Santiago Linari » Lun Oct 16, 2017 6:13 pm

Ezequiel15 escribió:21 de Td en NY y 24 en Washington. Nada mal para ser octubre.


De hecho se registraron más de 60 mm de agua precipitable en zonas de Luisiana y el este de EEUU, en muchos casos récord para octubre.
El lunes 8 se batió el récord de mínima más alta para octubre en el Reagan National Airport de Washington, con 23,8ºC

Todo cortesía de los restos del huracán Nate y su humedad asociada.
Pones canciones tristes para sentirte mejor

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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor stormchaserAlberto » Sab Oct 21, 2017 11:47 am

Tiempo severo para esta tarde en el medio oriente y sur de los Estados Unidos.
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% de tornados.
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Vientos severos.
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Granizo severo.
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Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 AM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Valid 211300Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI ACROSS
OKLAHOMA...AND NEAR THE RED RIVER IN NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHWEST
TEXAS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE FROM
NORTH TEXAS TO THE SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN BORDER AREA...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
SLIGHT RISK AND EXTENDING TO WESTERN WISCONSIN AND THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU REGION IN TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected especially across
portions of the south-central Plains late this afternoon and
evening. Severe hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are
possible.

...Synopsis...
The main mid/upper-level feature for this forecast is a full-
latitude, synoptic-scale trough, evident in moisture-channel imagery
from southern SK southward across eastern MT, WY, western CO, and
western NM. Although several embedded vorticity maxima are
apparent, this trough should maintain coherent structure as it
shifts eastward across the Great Plains through the period. By 12Z,
the trough should extend from western MN to eastern NE to
west-central/southwest TX.

At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a pronounced cold front from the
eastern Dakotas southwestward across central NE, western KS and
southwestern CO. A dryline was drawn from eastern Chihuahua
northward across far west TX to near ROW then northeastward over the
western OK Panhandle and the KS/CO border region south of the front.
The dryline will mix and advect eastward today, reaching a late-
afternoon position over southwestern OK and northwest/west-central
TX. By 00Z, the cold front should arc from northern MN to
northwestern MO, southwestern OK and southeastern NM, while
overtaking the dryline across the southwestern OK/northwest TX area.
By 12Z, the front should reach western Lake Superior, southern WI,
the MO/AR Ozarks, and south-central TX.

...Southern Plains to KS...
Thunderstorms are forecast to develop initially along the cold front
between northeastern KS and northwestern OK in the 19-22Z time
frame. A short time window exists for supercellular structures,
before frontal forcing and a substantial component of flow aloft
parallel to the front contribute to quick quasi-linear evolution.
Accordingly, hail threat with this activity should peak relatively
early in the convective cycle before transitioning to mainly wind
with isolated, marginal hail possible. Farther south, initially
separate dryline or proximal warm-sector initiation will be either
concurrent with the frontal regime, or with a relative delay of an
hour or two, given the stronger capping (but also stronger surface
heating and boundary-layer lapse rates) over southwestern OK and
northwest TX. This early-stage activity will offer an enhanced
significant/damaging hail and slight tornado risk.

The prefrontal moist sector should be characterized by steep
midlevel lapse rates, strong surface heating, and dewpoints in upper
60s F, yielding 3000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE from northwest TX to
central/northern OK, and around 2000 J/kg over northeastern KS.
Forecast soundings also suggest 35-45 kt effective-shear magnitudes
and 150-250 J/kg effective SRH, the latter increasing around 00Z as
the boundary layer decouples and the LLJ strengthens. However, the
increase in inflow-sector SRH will occur while storm modes get
messier, casting uncertainty on the longevity of any supercell
tornado potential. However, damaging bow echoes are a distinct
possibility starting within 2-4 hours after storm initiation. As
such, the enhanced wind probabilities are displaced eastward from,
but somewhat overlapping, those for hail.

The various convective regimes should merge as the front overtakes
the dryline throughout the evening, resulting in a lengthening/
backbuilding QLCS that sweeps eastward/southeastward across the
outlook area. During that phase, an enhanced damaging-wind risk
exists, with isolated hail possible. This segment of the squall
line will encounter a warm sector with relatively large values of
low-level shear and helicity, related to hodograph enlargement by
the southern sector of a 45-60-kt LLJ. As such, embedded LEWP/bow
configurations with mesovortices, and related potential for
short-lived tornadoes and locally enhanced damaging-wind swaths,
will exist for a few hours. Extent of backbuilding across west-
central TX and the Edwards Plateau region is uncertain, but the
severe threat appears lesser and more conditional than farther
northeast, given:
1. Later development with respect to optimal boundary-layer
instability, and
2. Potential for frontal undercutting of convection.

Overall, the severe threat will diminish overnight and with eastward
extent as the convection encounters progressively more static
stability near the surface -- though continuing boundary-layer
theta-e advection and moisture transport should make that process
gradual as well.

...Missouri Valley to upper Mississippi Valley...
Buoyancy is expected to decrease gradually with northeastward extent
from eastern KS, corresponding to lesser magnitudes of midlevel
lapse rates, low-level moisture and diabatic surface heating.
However, frontal forcing still should encounter sufficient low-level
theta-e to support upscale evolution into a strong/severe squall
line with thunderstorm gusts the main severe threat and isolated to
widely scattered, marginally severe hail also possible.

Peak prefrontal MLCAPE should reach near 2000 J/kg over northwestern
MO, grading to around 1000 J/kg over the upper Mississippi Valley.
Midlevel winds, and the mean-wind vector, should be aligned only
slightly rightward of the axis of convective-scale lift, indicating
quickly quasilinear evolution and dominance of that mode, amidst
35-40 kt effective-shear magnitudes. The severe potential should
wane through the evening hours, amidst diminishing instability
within and increasing elevation of the buoyant inflow layer.

..Edwards/Dean.. 10/21/2017

Se actualiza de vuelta a las 16:30z.
--------------------------------------------------------
Última discusión a mesoescala.
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Mesoscale Discussion 1720
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0320 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Areas affected...southwest New Mexico into a portion of far western
Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 192020Z - 192245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Stronger storms will remain capable of producing a few
instances of downburst winds and hail through early evening. Overall
threat is marginal, and coverage of severe events is not expected to
become sufficient for a WW.

DISCUSSION...Surface temperatures have climbed to near 80F with
dewpoints in the mid to upper 40s in the presence of boundary-layer
mixing, boosting MLCAPE to 400-800 J/kg. Storms over southern NM
have increased in overall intensity during the last hour, and
further increase in coverage may occur as forcing for ascent
attendant to a progressive shortwave trough over AZ spreads into
western NM. No substantial increase in winds aloft is expected with
the approach of the impulse, and vertical shear will remain weak and
supportive of multicells. Nevertheless, the thermodynamic
environment with steep lapse rates and inverted-v boundary layers
will continue to promote a risk for a few instances of downburst
winds and hail through early evening.

..Dial.. 10/19/2017
Dome, dome, dome..The life is a dome


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