Seguimiento general en EEUU

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stormchaserAlberto
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor stormchaserAlberto » Sab Oct 21, 2017 2:02 pm

Nueva actualización. No hay cambios.
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% de tornados.
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Viento.
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Granizo.
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Discusión.
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Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1115 AM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Valid 211630Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT FROM SOUTHEASTERN KS AND SOUTHWESTERN MO ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN AR AND OK TO PARTS OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TX TO
IA AND SOUTHEASTERN MN...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TX
TO PARTS OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MS VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected especially across
portions of the south-central Plains late this afternoon into
tonight. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes will
all be possible.

...Synopsis...
A pronounced midlevel trough over the Rockies will progress eastward
to the Plains by tonight. A surface cyclone in southern MB will
move to the north-northeast, as a trailing cold front moves eastward
into the upper MS Valley, and southeastward across the
central/southern Plains and the Ozarks. Low-level moisture
continues to spread northward in advance of the cold front and
beneath a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates, which will combine
with increasing deep-layer vertical shear and lift along the front
to support a threat for severe storms this afternoon into tonight
from IA to north TX.

...Eastern KS to IA this afternoon through tonight...
Initial severe thunderstorm development is expected by mid afternoon
along the cold front in KS (possibly evolving from early midlevel
convection), and storms will subsequently expand northeastward into
IA through this evening. Remnant steep midlevel lapse rates and
moderate buoyancy will support an initial large hail threat with the
frontal convection, and deep-layer vertical shear will be sufficient
for supercells. However, largely front-parallel, deep-layer shear
vectors and flow aloft will tend to support rapid upscale growth
into a squall line in the zone of linear ascent along the front by
this evening. As such, damaging winds will become the main threat,
though limited surface heating and moistening profiles aloft with
time may tend to limit the downdraft/damaging-wind threat with
northeastward extent. An isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled
out with the more discrete initial storms, or with embedded
circulations within the line.

...OK to north TX late this afternoon through tonight...
More discrete supercell development will be possible across western
OK and northwest TX in the 21-23z time frame along the dryline, near
and south of a weak triple-point low at the intersection of the cold
front and dryline. MLCAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg, midlevel lapse rates
greater than 8 C/km, and effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt
will favor supercells with the initial semi-discrete storm
development. A couple of tornadoes and very large hail will be
possible with the initial supercells, though low-level shear in the
warm sector will not be particularly strong to the west of I-35.
Upscale growth into an extensive squall line (likely merging with
the convection farther north into KS) is expected this evening, with
the severe-storm threat transitioning primarily to damaging winds by
late evening. A couple of tornadoes will remain possible this
evening into tonight with embedded mesovortices from southeastern
KS/southwestern MO into eastern OK, especially with more
southwest-northeast oriented bowing segments in the line.

..Thompson/Leitman.. 10/21/2017

Se actualiza nuevamente a las 20z.
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor stormchaserAlberto » Sab Oct 21, 2017 4:25 pm

Primera discusión de la jornada.
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Mesoscale Discussion 1721
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0123 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Areas affected...eastern Kansas...far southeast Nebraska...far
southwest Iowa and northwest Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 211823Z - 212100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the
east-southeastward progressing cold front across eastern Kansas
later this afternoon. Once initiation occurs, storms will quickly
intensify with damaging wind gusts, hail and a tornado or two
possible into the evening hours. A watch will likely be needed by
20-21z.

DISCUSSION...Breaks in low level clouds have allowed temperatures to
warm into the mid to upper 70s across much of eastern KS early this
afternoon. With dewpoints in the low and mid 60s, MLCAPE values have
increased to 1500-2000 J/kg. The VAD wind profile from the DDC radar
also has shown a slight increase in midlevel winds over the last 30
minutes or so, suggesting the shortwave impulse over northeast NM is
beginning to eject east/northeast into the Plains. Furthermore,
cumulus along the front from far northwest OK into central/eastern
KS and southeast NE is becoming increasingly congested with some
vertical growth evident. In conjunction with hi-res HRRR guidance,
this suggests convective initiation should occur within the next
couple of hours.

Steep midlevel lapse rates and effective shear in excess of 35 kt
will aid in storms quickly becoming severe with at least a brief
window of opportunity for semi-discrete cells. However, the quickly
progressing cold front and front-parallel deep-shear vectors will
result in rather fast upscale growth. Any cells that can stay
semi-discrete will pose a threat for large hail and damaging wind.
Once upscale growth occurs, a transition to mainly a damaging wind
threat is expected. While forecast low-level hodographs are
unimpressive, they are adequate for low-end tornado potential and a
tornado or two can not be ruled out either in an isolated cell or
within embedded mesovorticies along the leading edge of the squall
line. A watch will likely be needed between 20-21z.

..Leitman/Thompson.. 10/21/2017
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor stormchaserAlberto » Sab Oct 21, 2017 4:50 pm

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Mesoscale Discussion 1722
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0236 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Areas affected...Western and central OK and part of western North TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 211936Z - 212130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...A new severe-weather watch will be coordinated soon across
portions of the southern Plains. Thunderstorms are expected to
develop by late afternoon across western Oklahoma and into parts of
western North Texas, with storms becoming severe producing large
hail and perhaps a tornado with the initial activity. Damaging
winds will become a greater threat as storms form a line, advancing
east across central Oklahoma into the evening.

DISCUSSION...Despite the lack of lightning so far, trends in visible
satellite imagery indicated sustained and deepening convection along
the portion of the cold front advancing southward through western OK
with some cooling of cloud tops. Farther south into western North
TX, visible imagery indicated likely surface-based cumulus clouds
forming from southeast of CDS into Wilbarger County. Objective
analyses indicated an increase of low-level convergence across this
latter area and the cold front, as a dryline shifts east through
northwest TX. The warm sector has become moderately unstable
(MLCAPE 2000-2500 J/kg) with weakening of surface-based inhibition
per objective analyses along and just east of the surface
boundaries. Additional surface heating and an increase in
large-scale ascent, as an upper trough moves east into the southern
Plains, are expected to aid in further weakening of the cap and
strengthening storm development from late this afternoon through the
evening.

An increase in deep-layer shear will support supercells with the
initial activity across western OK and western North TX, while
upscale growth is expected into the evening, with damaging winds
becoming the primary threat as a squall line evolves into central
OK.

..Peters/Thompson.. 10/21/2017

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 502
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
225 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Eastern Kansas
Northwestern Missouri

* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 225 PM until
1000 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity
through late afternoon along and immediately ahead of a cold front.
The stronger storms initially could pose a large hail threat, though
storm mergers should lead to the formation of a squall line with
damaging winds by this evening. An isolated tornado could occur
with embedded circulations in the line.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles north northwest
of Chillicothe MO to 50 miles south southeast of Wichita KS. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
23040.

...Thompson
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor stormchaserAlberto » Sab Oct 21, 2017 6:00 pm

Tiraron un poco más al este en la nueva actualización.
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Se actualiza nuevamente a las 01z.
---------------------------------------------------------
Última discusión a mesoescala.
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Mesoscale Discussion 1723
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Areas affected...portions of western and central Iowa into southern
Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 211957Z - 212200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms along an eastward advancing cold
front may pose a sporadic damaging wind threat into the evening
hours across central Iowa into parts of far southern Minnesota.
Some small hail also may be possible with the stronger cells. Trends
will be monitored for possible watch issuance later this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed along the eastward surging
cold front across western MN/IA. While the area has been under
mostly cloudy skies today, breaks ahead of the front have allowed
temperatures to warm into the upper 60s and low 70s with dewpoints
in the low 60s. This has resulted in a narrow corridor of weak
instability with MLCAPE values around 500-1000 J/kg. Strong deep
layer shear oriented generally parallel to the front will maintain
linear storm mode as storms quickly track eastward. Steep midlevel
lapse rates in the presence of weak instability and strong shear
will allow for some cells to approach severe limits with damaging
wind gusts the main concern.

Given the fast, progressive nature of the cold front and
aforementioned shear vector orientation with respect to the front,
storms will have difficulty remaining ahead of the boundary. This
may temper the overall threat as storms become undercut by the
front, and any severe potential may be brief/sporadic. Trends will
be monitored and a severe thunderstorm watch may be needed at some
point this afternoon.

..Leitman/Thompson.. 10/21/2017

---------------------------------------------------------------
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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 503
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
300 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Western and central Oklahoma
Northwest Texas

* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 300 PM until
1000 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 2.5 inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is expected around 4pm, with an
increase in storm coverage/intensity into this evening. More
isolated supercells with very large hail will be possible initially
across western Oklahoma and northwest Texas. Storms will then grow
upscale into a more solid squall line by late evening, when damaging
winds will become the more common threat. A tornado or two could
occur with the initial discrete supercells, as well as later this
evening with circulations embedded in the developing line across
central Oklahoma.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
east and west of a line from 45 miles west northwest of Ponca City
OK to 55 miles southwest of Wichita Falls TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 502...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 24030.

...Thompson
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor stormchaserAlberto » Sab Oct 21, 2017 6:34 pm

Nube pared más temprano en Avoca, Iowa. Foto del cazatormentas Mike Lachendro.
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor stormchaserAlberto » Sab Oct 21, 2017 7:02 pm

Va empezando a tomar forma la línea. Ya hay algunos cazatormentas en las superceldas aisladas del oeste y sudoeste de Oklahoma.
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Mesoscale Discussion 1724
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0505 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Areas affected...Western/central OK and North TX

Concerning...Tornado Watch 503...

Valid 212205Z - 212330Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 503 continues.

SUMMARY...Large hail, some of which will be significant, and a
couple tornadoes will be the primary risks across western and
central OK into a part of North TX through 02Z. These hazards will
increase towards the I-35 corridor and the Oklahoma City metro area
near 00Z.

DISCUSSION...Splitting supercells have been evident centered from
Tillman to Washita counties as of 22Z ahead of a convective band
along the cold front across north-central OK into the Low Rolling
Plains of northwest TX. With middle 60s surface dew points and
MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg within the inflow region, these
ahead-of-the-line supercells will have the greatest opportunity to
produce very large hail. The tornado threat should also increase
between 00-02Z as a southwesterly low-level jet strengthens.

..Grams.. 10/21/2017
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor stormchaserAlberto » Sab Oct 21, 2017 7:54 pm

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Mesoscale Discussion 1725
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0538 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Areas affected...Eastern Kansas...western Missouri...and far
southern Iowa

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 502...

Valid 212238Z - 212345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 502
continues.

SUMMARY...The risk of damaging wind gusts and isolated hail
continues along and ahead of a squall line in western portions of WW
502.

DISCUSSION...Storms have mostly congealed into linear segments along
an outflow that extends from near STJ to TOP to just southeast of
ICT. Several of these storms are mostly behind this outflow and
slightly elevated atop a stable boundary layer - especially across
south-central Kansas. Hail will be the primary threat with this
activity, while damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat with
convection along and ahead of the boundary - particularly with
storms near and east of the Topeka area that have exhibited bowing
segments. An additional risk for surface based activity will occur
with pre-frontal convection migrating northeastward from
north-central Oklahoma.

West of this line, the severe threat is diminishing as thermodynamic
profiles stabilize behind the cold front. The severe thunderstorm
watch may be cancelled early for areas behind the front. See
attendant Watch Status messages for further guidance.

..Cook.. 10/21/2017

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Mesoscale Discussion 1726
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0541 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Areas affected...Northwest TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 212241Z - 220015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe wind gusts and marginally severe hail will
be possible with high-based storms west of the dryline. A severe
thunderstorms watch issuance is unlikely in this corridor, but a
watch issuance is much more probable farther east later this
evening.

DISCUSSION...High-based convection has developed between the
west/east-oriented cold front and southwest/northeast-oriented
dryline across the South Plains and Low Rolling Plains of northwest
TX. A 54 kt gust was recorded by the Sundown TX mesonet site at
2210Z. Very large surface temperature/dew point spreads will support
a continued risk for isolated severe wind gusts. While MLCAPE is
likely meager, strong speed shear within the cloud-bearing layer
should foster small hail, possibly approaching quarter size. As the
cold front further overtakes the dryline, increasing linear
convective coverage is anticipated and this should necessitate watch
issuance east of the dryline later this evening.

..Grams/Guyer.. 10/21/2017
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor stormchaserAlberto » Sab Oct 21, 2017 9:01 pm

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Mesoscale Discussion 1727
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0640 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Areas affected...OK and north TX

Concerning...Tornado Watch 503...

Valid 212340Z - 220115Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 503 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat will increase towards and east of the
I-35 corridor, including the Oklahoma City and Tulsa metro areas. A
downstream tornado watch issuance is likely by 01Z in OK, with a
severe thunderstorm watch issuance more probable in north TX.

DISCUSSION...Corridor of persistent supercells over southwest OK
near the Lawton vicinity will pose the greatest near-term risk for a
couple tornadoes, large hail, and isolated damaging winds as surface
winds have backed across this portion of the Red River Valley, while
1-2 km agl winds have strengthened per FDR/TLX VWP data. Linear
bands should continue to increase in coverage along the cold front
as it accelerates east-southeast. This should merge with the
pre-frontal supercells and foster an increasingly predominant risk
of damaging winds with an eastward-evolving QLCS. A QLCS tornado
risk will also be present from south-central into northeast OK.

..Grams.. 10/21/2017
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor stormchaserAlberto » Sab Oct 21, 2017 9:31 pm

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 504
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
720 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Eastern Oklahoma

* Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 720 PM
until 200 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Ongoing semi-discrete supercell thunderstorms across
southwest Oklahoma should continue to move toward east-central
Oklahoma this evening while additional linearly organized storms
continue to intensify near a cold front. Damaging winds will be the
most prevalent risk, but some tornado potential will exist as well,
particularly as the low-level jet continues to strengthen this
evening.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles
east and west of a line from 5 miles south of Durant OK to 25 miles
east northeast of Bartlesville OK. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 502...WW 503...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 22035.

...Guyer

Indiahoma, Oklahoma.
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor stormchaserAlberto » Sab Oct 21, 2017 10:36 pm

Hay un nuevo watch vigente, en este caso para Texas. Es por tormentas severas con granizo de 2 pulgadas. Mayores detalles en la discusión.
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Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 505
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
750 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
North Texas

* Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 750 PM
until 200 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Scattered semi-discrete storms should continue to
intensify across western parts of North Texas this evening with more
extensive development occurring as the cold front continues to
overtake the dryline through late evening and overnight. Bouts of
severe hail will initially be possible, although locally damaging
wind gusts should become more prevalent by late evening and
overnight as storms trend more linear. Some tornado risk cannot be
entirely ruled out, particularly across far north Texas areas closer
to the Red River.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45
statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles west southwest
of Abilene TX to 70 miles east southeast of Sherman TX. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 502...WW 503...WW 504...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
27025.

----------------------------------------------
Ajunto una nueva discusión a mesoescala. Resumiéndola un poco, en la discusión se dice que la línea de tormentas continuará propagándose hacia el este en porciones del WW502, produciendo vientos severos aislados.
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Mesoscale Discussion 1728
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0810 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Areas affected...Eastern Kansas and western Missouri

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 502...

Valid 220110Z - 220245Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 502
continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated severe wind risk persists across remaining
portions of WW 502. A new WW is being considered downstream of WW
502 - particularly for portions of southeastern Kansas and
southwestern Missouri.

DISCUSSION...A line of storms continues to propagate eastward across
portions of WW 502 - generally along a line from near LWD to MKC to
CNU. Most of the line has been sub-severe over the past hour or so,
although a 59 mph wind gust was reported in Burbank, OK recently -
and that storm should propagate into southern portions of WW 502
with time. This isolated severe wind risk - most concentrated in
southeastern Kansas and vicinity - will eventually reach the eastern
extent of the the watch over the next 1-1.5 hours. A new severe
thunderstorm watch is being considered as ongoing convection - aided
by 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and an increasing low-level jet across the
region - approaches southwestern Missouri.

..Cook.. 10/22/2017

----------------------------------------------------
Vean la extensión de la línea, con lo más severo sobre Oklahoma, Texas y Missouri. Por delante, está una masa de aire cálida y húmeda proveniente del Golfo y atrás aire mucho más fresco proveniente desde Canadá.
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Supercelda de alta precipitación hace un rato en Cache, Oklahoma.
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