Seguimiento general en EEUU

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stormchaserAlberto
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor stormchaserAlberto » Mar Feb 28, 2017 8:33 pm

DMS N* 220
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Mesoscale Discussion 0220
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0524 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

Areas affected...Portions of eastern Iowa...northern
Illinois...northwestern Indiana...and southwestern Michigan

Concerning...Tornado Watch 42...

Valid 282324Z - 010100Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 42 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms capable of tornadoes, large hail, and
damaging winds will continue across portions of Tornado Watch 42
this evening.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of supercells has organized across northern
Illinois late this afternoon on the nose of a stout 850-700-mb jet.
A 21Z sounding from Lincoln, IL indicated a strongly veering with
height low-level wind profile, topped by steep lapse rates in the
approximate 850-650-mb layer, which is fostering vigorous updraft
accelerations in these storms. Additionally, low-level
storm-relative helicity is maximized in the vicinity of a warm front
across northern Illinois currently. As a result, several supercells
continue to evolve eastward across the area, with recent reports of
a large tornado in eastern La Salle / western Grundy counties.

As these cells move east towards northwestern Indiana and Lake
Michigan, cooler surface temperatures and lower dew points may favor
some slight weakening of these cells and/or less organized storm
modes. However, any organized, rotating updraft may be able to
sustain itself even in a weakly stable low-level environment, due to
a strong upward pressure perturbation gradient force. Moreover, some
upscale growth of cells into small bowing segments may yield an
attendant damaging-wind threat with these storms as they progress
east.

DMS N* 221
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Mesoscale Discussion 0221
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0528 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

Areas affected...Central Arkansas into southeast Missouri

Concerning...Tornado Watch 43...

Valid 282328Z - 010130Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 43 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for tornadoes may increase over the next few
hours across Arkansas into southeastern Missouri, with further
development into the lower Ohio Valley and western Tennessee later
this evening.

DISCUSSION...Multiple clusters of thunderstorms continue to evolve
across central Arkansas into southern Missouri across the open warm
sector and driven mainly by warm advection in the low levels and
lack of substantial capping.

Cells over Missouri have shown complex storm structures, with
several splits noted on radar. This is not surprising given the
mainly straight-line hodograph on the 20Z observed SGF sounding.
Also evident steep lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear, which
support a severe hail threat. As these storms continue eastward,
they will encounter a more unstable and more sheared environment
supported by a gradually increasing low-level jet and observed axis
of mid 60s dewpoints in place. Therefore, potential for stronger
rotation and right-moving tornadic supercells will increase over
time.

To the south, 850-mb flow is a bit stronger and more backed, with a
cluster of cells west of the Little Rock area showing mesocyclones
at times, but nothing long-lived thus far. However, the LZK VWP as
well as objective analysis indicate 250-300 m2/s2 0-3 km SRH in
place, with an upward trend in GPS PW observations as well. The
increasing low-level jet will further increase low-level shear this
evening, favoring tornadic supercells.

Model guidance suggests increasing storm coverage spreading eastward
across the lower Ohio Valley and western Tennessee, with a risk of
tornadoes this evening. As such, additional tornado watches could be
required in those areas.
Dome, dome, dome..The life is a dome

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maatii96
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor maatii96 » Mar Feb 28, 2017 9:30 pm

Mmm, y eso que está el ENE de Vilonia? Hay un tornado warning en la zona.

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stormchaserAlberto
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor stormchaserAlberto » Mar Feb 28, 2017 9:35 pm

DMS N* 222
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Mesoscale Discussion 0222
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0600 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

Areas affected...Northern Indiana...northern Ohio...and southern
Lower Michigan

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 010000Z - 010130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...At least an isolated severe risk in the form of large hail
and damaging winds will continue eastward across northern Indiana,
far southern Lower Michigan and parts of northern Ohio tonight. A
watch will likely be issued.

DISCUSSION...Multiple clusters of elevated storms have developed and
intensified over the past hour across northeast Indiana to the
northeast of a warm front across the region. Steep mid-level lapse
rates, modest elevated buoyancy, and ample shear through the
cloud-bearing layer will support at least some severe hail risk this
evening with these mostly elevated storms. Additional upstream
storms across north-central/northeast Illinois may gradually move
into the region later this evening, all while a warm front and
related increasingly moist air mass develops northeastward across
the region. This could account for at least some increasing
near-surface-based severe risk later this evening with an increasing
potential for damaging winds and at least some tornado risk.

DMS N* 223
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Mesoscale Discussion 0223
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0605 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

Areas affected...Portions of eastern Kansas and northern/central
Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 010005Z - 010200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Storms should increase in coverage across the region this
evening, with a growing threat for tornadoes, large hail, and
damaging winds. Cells will likely organize from portions of
southeastern Kansas northeastward to west-central Illinois over the
next several hours. Tornado watch issuance is likely over northern
Missouri shortly. Additional watch issuance farther south is also
possible this evening.

DISCUSSION...Observational data early this evening suggest
increasing large-scale ascent is beginning to overspread the region,
with a few cells developing along surface confluence near the cold
front just east of the Kansas City metro. KSGF VWP data depict a
growing, clockwise-looping hodograph over the last 2-3 hours,
indicating strengthening warm-air advection in response to forcing
for ascent with the approaching trough. As mid-level temperatures
continue to cool, thunderstorms will organize from southeastern
Kansas to northern Missouri.

A pool of higher surface dew points (generally in the lower 60s)
currently exists across northeast OK and southeast KS, and
strengthening low-level south/southwesterly flow should advect this
moisture northeast through the evening. With regional soundings
sampling steep mid-level lapse rates over the region, MLCAPE values
around 1000-2000 J/kg should be realized from southeastern KS into
central MO. Strong southwesterly 850-700-mb flow will enhance
storm-relative helicity considerably, favoring low-level
mesocyclogenesis in any supercellular structures that develop. While
there is some uncertainty with the storm mode due to linear forcing
along the front, recent convection-allowing guidance suggests that a
cluster of supercells may form over the next 2 hours or so.

Considering the kinematic and thermodynamic environment, any
sustained supercell would be capable of tornadoes, with the
potential for a strong tornado or two. These cells would shift
northeast from southeastern Kansas into central Missouri through the
evening and into the overnight hours.
Dome, dome, dome..The life is a dome

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stormchaserAlberto
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor stormchaserAlberto » Mar Feb 28, 2017 9:39 pm

Nuevo tornado watch!
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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 44
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
720 PM CDT Tue Feb 28 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Extreme eastern Kansas
West-central and northern Missouri

* Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 720 PM
until 200 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter
possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing near a cold front will offer
severe hail and gusts, and an increasing tornado threat with time,
while moving into strengthening moisture over the watch area. See
SPC mesoscale discussion 223 for additional/initial meteorological
guidance.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles
east and west of a line from 40 miles south southwest of Knob Noster
MO to 25 miles north of Kirksville MO. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 41...WW 42...WW 43...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
storm motion vector 25035.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 45
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
735 PM EST Tue Feb 28 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northern Indiana
Southern Lower Michigan
Northwestern Ohio
Lake Erie
Lake Michigan

* Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 735 PM
until 400 AM EST.

* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected to spread
across this region north of a warm front, offering the potential for
large hail and isolated strong-severe gusts. A tornado cannot be
ruled out later tonight over parts of northern Indiana as well, but
that threat is more conditional and uncertain at this time. See SPC
mesoscale discussion 222 for initial meteorological reasoning.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles southwest of
Benton Harbor MI to 15 miles east southeast of Detroit MI. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 41...WW 42...WW 43...WW
44...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
26035.
Última edición por stormchaserAlberto el Mar Feb 28, 2017 9:43 pm, editado 1 vez en total.
Dome, dome, dome..The life is a dome

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maatii96
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor maatii96 » Mar Feb 28, 2017 9:43 pm

Otra belleza al SO de Saint Louis, con tornado warning

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stormchaserAlberto
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor stormchaserAlberto » Mar Feb 28, 2017 9:46 pm

Sondeo 23z de la universidad de Valparaiso, Indiana. Resuelve TOR como vigilancia.
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stormchaserAlberto
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor stormchaserAlberto » Mar Feb 28, 2017 9:51 pm

No se donde es esto, pero es realmente IMPRESIONANTE!
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La Rosa, Illinois.
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maatii96
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor maatii96 » Mar Feb 28, 2017 9:59 pm

Les traigo dos sondeitos interesantes :P

Lincoln, Illinois

Tremenda cortante, la helicidad y el viento en capas bajas (55 nudos en 850!!), lo desfavorece el hecho de que no está muy cálido ni húmedo, pero sigue siendo un sondeo impresionante.

Imagen

Springfield, Missouri

Cortante impresionante pero no tan bestial como el otro sondeo, con 45-50 nudos en 850. Lo mismo, sería una bomba si estuviera más cálido y húmedo.

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Chuekin
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor Chuekin » Mar Feb 28, 2017 11:08 pm

Recordar que esto es dinámico (si mal no vi en el fb de un flaco que sigo en Illinois está activando un frente frío). No le hace falta más cálido o húmedo porque ya es una bomba tornádica. La helicidad es fabulosa y la hodógrafa es monumental.

EDIT: Esto sin contar que ahora tiene que empezar a aumentar la intensidad del LLJ.
We in the field know that GFS 10+ day forecasts are "fantasy land"

Hay que dejar de decirle CHUVA al WRF por dos años (?)

-Martin

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maatii96
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor maatii96 » Mar Feb 28, 2017 11:15 pm

Gracias Chuekin por la aclaración :D

Cuánto hace que está viva esa SC que ahora está al sur-sudeste de Saint Louis? Que bárbaro

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Traté de encontrar el frente, así muy a groso modo y pésimamente dibujado :lol: :lol: :lol:

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