Seguimiento general en EEUU

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stormchaserAlberto
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor stormchaserAlberto » Lun Mar 06, 2017 2:18 pm

Les dejo la actualizacion del convective outlook para el dia de hoy:
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% de tornados.
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% de vientos.
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% de granizo.
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Discusión:
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Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1033 AM CST Mon Mar 06 2017

Valid 061630Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MID-MS VALLEY
AND OZARK PLATEAU...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS UPPER MIDWEST TO
EASTERN OK AND AR...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL
STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe storms are expected starting late afternoon and
continuing into tonight across the central states. The greatest
concentration of tornadoes, a couple of which may be strong,
damaging winds, and large hail is expected to be across the Ozark
Plateau to the Mid-Mississippi Valley.

...Lower Missouri Valley, Ozark Plateau, Mid-South...
Scattered storms should develop along the dryline late afternoon
centered on eastern KS as mid-level height falls overspread this
boundary downstream of a vigorous northern Great Plains shortwave
trough. Despite a weakness in hodographs near 700 mb, low and
deep-layer shear will be strong. In conjunction with a destabilizing
air mass characterized by a plume of returning Gulf moisture with
lower 60s surface dew points amid steep mid-level lapse rates, the
environment will be quite favorable for supercells. As the cold
front overtakes the dryline, storms will grow upscale this evening.
This should result in a multi-faceted severe risk, all of which
yield probabilistic upgrades this outlook. Large hail and tornadoes,
some of which may be significant, will be the primary risks with any
supercells that can maintain discrete mode immediately ahead of a
probable QLCS. Damaging winds and a few embedded tornadoes should be
the primary hazards with a fast-moving QLCS, supported by very
strong and strengthening mid-level winds, along the northern extent
of moderate instability across Missouri towards the mid-Mississippi
Valley.. With southwest extent towards the Red River, deep-layer
winds will be oriented increasingly parallel to the front, which
should tend to favor a predominant QLCS mode and a more
isolated/less intense severe risk tonight.

...Upper Midwest...
Strong forcing for ascent will overspread this region along the
northern extent of the warm sector, yielding scattered storm
development along the cold front late afternoon. Rather steep
mid-level lapse rates will compensate for comparatively lesser
boundary-layer moisture farther south. Elongated, straight-line
hodographs should support a few supercells, although the degree of
forcing will probably tend to favor upscale growth into one or more
short-line segments. All hazards appear possible with widely
scattered severe reports expected.

A las 20z, van a actualizar de vuelta.
Dome, dome, dome..The life is a dome

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maatii96
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor maatii96 » Lun Mar 06, 2017 3:09 pm

La cortante baja de este sondeo es increíble.

Springfield, Missouri (está dentro del área con mayor riesgo de tornados)

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stormchaserAlberto
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor stormchaserAlberto » Lun Mar 06, 2017 4:20 pm

Here we go! :twisted: :twisted: :twisted:
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Mesoscale Discussion 0252
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0108 PM CST Mon Mar 06 2017

Areas affected...Portions of Iowa

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 061908Z - 062145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The risk for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes will be
increasing across parts of western IA in the general 2030Z-2200Z
time frame and then subsequently spread eastward. The issuance of a
Tornado Watch will be likely during the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery indicates high-based cumulus
development becoming increasingly focused within the deep boundary
layer across parts of central and eastern NE. This high-based
convection is being enhanced by ascent within the left-exit region
of a mid/high-level speed maximum advancing northeastward across the
North-Central States. As large-scale ascent continues to increase, a
pseudo-dryline over the middle Missouri Valley region will continue
to sharpen and serve as a focused zone of thunderstorm development
in the general 2030Z-2200Z time frame. Warm-sector pressure falls of
2.0-2.5 mb per 2 hours have been noted across the region in
association with the strengthening large-scale ascent.

As midlevel flow continues to strengthen, with at least some flow
component orthogonal to the dryline and an approaching baroclinic
zone, initially discrete/semi-discrete supercell modes will be
likely across western IA -- aided by 50-65 kt of effective shear.
With time, upscale growth of this activity should foster storm
clusters and QLCS segments spreading toward the Mississippi River
into the evening hours, especially as the baroclinic zone overtakes
the dryline and accelerates eastward.

While the magnitude of warm-sector moisture return is somewhat
modest (surface dewpoints in the middle 50s), steep midlevel lapse
rates attendant to an overlying elevated mixed layer plume will
support sufficient buoyancy (MLCAPE around 750-1250 J/kg) for robust
convection capable of severe hail, wind, and a few tornadoes. The
tornado risk will be relatively greater for persistent supercell
structures amid effective SRH around 200-300 m2/s2 in the open warm
sector, and perhaps with line-embedded meso-vortices later in the
afternoon/evening.

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Mesoscale Discussion 0253
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0137 PM CST Mon Mar 06 2017

Areas affected...Portions of MN and western WI

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 061937Z - 062200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The risk for severe thunderstorms will be increasing
across parts of southwest and west-central MN in the general
2030Z-2200Z time frame, with this activity subsequently spreading
eastward/northeastward. Severe hail and wind, along with tornadoes,
will be possible across the region, and a Tornado Watch will likely
be issued within the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...The exit region of a cyclonically curved mid/high-level
jet streak continues to impinge upon the western extent of modest
moisture return (surface dewpoints in the lower/middle 50s) analyzed
from IA into southern MN. Visible satellite imagery indicates an
area of more agitated cumulus growth across northwest IA -- along a
surface trough that arches northwestward to 981-mb low pressure
analyzed over east-central ND. This surface trough represents the
focused corridor of low-level ascent that will serve to support
surfaced-based thunderstorm generation in the general 2030Z-2200Z
time frame, with this activity spreading toward the Mississippi
River into the evening hours.

Despite the modest degree of moisture return east of the surface
trough, midlevel cooling associated with large-scale ascent -- amid
antecedent moderately steep midlevel lapse rates -- will support
MLCAPE around 500-1250 J/kg (greatest south). The presence of 40-60
kt of effective shear will support organized convective structures,
including supercells especially during the first few hours of storm
development.

Visible satellite loops reveal notable horizontal convective roll
structures along the southwestern periphery of northeastward-eroding
low-level stratus across central/south-central MN, indicative of the
strong low-level shear already in place. Large effective SRH (around
250-400 m2/s2) aided by backed surface winds in closer proximity to
the track of the surface low (compared to points south) will offer
tornado potential with storms spreading across the area into the
evening hours. While supercell storms will have the greatest risk of
producing tornadoes, the large magnitude of ascent will probably
foster upscale-growing convective clusters/quasi-linear segments.
Furthermore, an inflection in forecast hodographs (around 3 km above
ground) suggests that storms may evolve into a cluster mode fairly
quickly. While these factors could impede the longevity of strong
low-level circulations, tornado potential will exist, along with
large hail and severe wind potential. The severe risk will spread
toward the Mississippi Valley region into the evening hours.

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Mesoscale Discussion 0254
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0148 PM CST Mon Mar 06 2017

Areas affected...east-central into northeastern KS...far
southeastern NE...northwestern into central parts of MO

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 061948Z - 062145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...A couple of supercells are forecast to develop over
eastern KS during the 22-00 UTC period. An attendant risk for very
large hail (2 inches or greater in diameter) and some tornado
potential will seemingly accompany this activity. Upscale
convective growth will eventually lead to an increased risk for 50+
kt gusts later this evening, along with some lingering tornado
potential, and a decrease in the large-hail threat.

DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows a swelling cumulus
field from the eastern half of OK north-northeastward into northeast
KS to the east of a dryline. Surface analysis indicates
temperatures are warming into the mid 70s with dewpoints in the
mid-upper 50s. A strong capping inversion will likely inhibit
convective initiation for a few more hours until the cap locally
erodes over east-central and northeast KS during the 21-23 UTC
period.

Additional surface heating and some slight increase in low-level
moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the upper 50s) will yield
moderate buoyancy (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE). Strong effective shear
(60-kt) coupled with the magnitude of buoyancy ---owing in part to a
steep lapse rate profile--- will promote an initial discrete mode
and the likely development of a couple of supercells. Large to very
large hail will probably be the predominant risk but a
window-of-opportunity for a tornado or two may develop during the
1-3 hour period after convective initiation as storms intensify as
hodographs enlarge by early evening (300-450 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH).

Upscale growth is likely to occur this evening ---supported by a
plethora of CAM guidance--- as a 100-kt 500-mb speed max moves
rapidly from the central High Plains into the lower MO Valley by mid
evening. An increasing risk for damaging winds will probably
develop and spread downstream across central and northern portions
of MO later this evening.

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Mesoscale Discussion 0255
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 PM CST Mon Mar 06 2017

Areas affected...southeastern KS...northeastern OK...northwestern
AR...and southwest into central MO

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 062050Z - 062215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are forecast to develop during the 22-01 UTC
period. Initially, a couple of supercells are expected with an
attendant risk for 2+ inches diameter hail, a couple of tornadoes
(perhaps a strong tornado), and a damaging-wind risk forecast to
evolve as storms grow upscale later this evening.

DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows a bubbling cumulus
field generally near and east of the I-35 corridor in OK and
extending into southeastern KS. Surface observations show the 60
degree F isodrosotherm steadily moving northward through
east-central and into northeastern OK during the past several hours.
GOES sounder and GPS PW data show PW values rising into the
1.00-1.10 inch range and this agrees with the latest RAP sounding
initialization. The RAP shows the lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratios
increasing into the 11-12 g/kg range from 10-11 g/kg during the next
several hours prior to convective overturning in the model.

Steep to very steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (near 8 degrees C/km) and
the increasing boundary-layer moisture are resulting in moderate
buoyancy (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) across western half of the
discussion area. Enlarging hodographs this evening (300-500 m2/s2
0-1 km SRH) will become more favorable for low-level mesocyclone
development. The primary uncertainties regarding the tornado risk
involve the actual quality of low-level moisture and the vertical
wind profile exhibiting some veer-back-veer tendency. Nonetheless,
it seems likely a significant-hail threat will develop with initial
storms early in their convective lifecycle. The overall tornado
risk will probably be related to how quickly the convective mode
changes from quasi-discrete to linear. After the transition to a
linear mode occurs, severe gusts yielding a wind-damage hazard will
become increasingly possible, along with some lingering tornado risk
with the stronger storms.
Dome, dome, dome..The life is a dome

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stormchaserAlberto
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor stormchaserAlberto » Lun Mar 06, 2017 6:34 pm

Ya salieron los primeros tornado watch del dia.
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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 61
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
155 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Much of Iowa

* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 155 PM until
1000 PM CST.

* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Clusters of thunderstorms will rapidly progress
east-northeast from the Missouri towards the Mississippi river
during the evening. This activity will likely form into an extensive
line of storms with all severe hazards possible, but damaging winds
as the main risk.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles
east and west of a line from 25 miles north of Mason City IA to 50
miles south southwest of Knoxville IA. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 62
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
225 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Northeast Kansas
Northwest and north-central Missouri
Far southeast Nebraska

* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 225 PM until
1000 PM CST.

* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 2.5 inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely

SUMMARY...Scattered storms will develop early this evening and
likely form into a fast-moving line moving east across the Lower
Missouri Valley. Initial storms should have the greatest potential
for tornadoes and large hail, transitioning to a predominant
damaging wind threat over time.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 100 statute miles
east and west of a line from 60 miles north northwest of Chillicothe
MO to 60 miles south of Olathe KS. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 63
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
245 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Central and southern Minnesota
Far west-central Wisconsin

* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 245 PM until
1000 PM CST.

* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Widely scattered storms developing over southwest
Minnesota will spread northeast this evening with a risk for all
severe hazards.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles
east and west of a line from 40 miles north of Saint Cloud MN to 40
miles southwest of Rochester MN. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
Dome, dome, dome..The life is a dome

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stormchaserAlberto
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor stormchaserAlberto » Lun Mar 06, 2017 7:23 pm

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Dome, dome, dome..The life is a dome

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maatii96
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor maatii96 » Lun Mar 06, 2017 7:31 pm

Linda línea severa.

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stormchaserAlberto
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor stormchaserAlberto » Lun Mar 06, 2017 8:26 pm

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Mesoscale Discussion 0257
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0503 PM CST Mon Mar 06 2017

Areas affected...Parts of east-central Minnesota and far
northwestern Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 062303Z - 070000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated hail/wind threat may persist with activity
moving north-northeastward out of WW 63. A new WW issuance is not
anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms, including a couple of
supercellular structures, continue to mature in northern portions of
WW 63 currently. Although shear is sufficient for storm
organization/rotation, instability is weak/modest in the discussion
area and weakens further with northward extent. Still, around 500
J/kg of MUCAPE exists, and may be sufficient for storms to produce
hail or perhaps an isolated wind gust over the next 2-3 hours. This
threat should remain isolated enough to preclude a WW issuance.
Dome, dome, dome..The life is a dome

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stormchaserAlberto
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor stormchaserAlberto » Lun Mar 06, 2017 9:36 pm

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Mesoscale Discussion 0258
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0602 PM CST Mon Mar 06 2017

Areas affected...Southeastern Kansas...northeast
Oklahoma...southwest Missouri...northwest Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 070002Z - 070100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are expected to rapidly develop near a cold front
across southeast Kansas and northern/northeastern Oklahoma in the
next 1-2 hours. A tornado watch is likely to be needed in the next
hour or so. Storms will continue to pose a severe threat across
southern Missouri and northern Arkansas this evening.

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a strong cold front surging
eastward across eastern KS and trailing into OK panhandle. Ahead of
this front, a dryline stretched from just west of Wichita KS
southward to just west of Lawton OK. Strong surface flow exists both
ahead and behind the front, with 6 mb 2-hour pressure rises noted
behind the front. Ahead of the front, the strong southerly flow in
the low-levels was helping to create substantial looping hodographs
with 0-1 km SRH around 300 m2/s2 in the Ft. Smith and Tulsa areas
increasing to 400+ into northeast Kansas where tornadoes have
recently been confirmed.

A well-mixed boundary layer with mid to upper 70s temperatures along
with 57-60 dewpoints currently exists ahead of the cold front, with
a locally richer moist axis near the Arklatex where dewpoints were
in the mid 60s. In general, MLCAPE is around 1000-1500 J/kg, which
will certainly support severe storms given strong shear profiles.
The 00Z SGF sounding shows MUCAPE around 1200 J/kg, with a small
capping inversion near 700 mb and a hodograph quite supportive of
supercell and tornado threat. Storm mode is a little less certain
given the surging cold front, but a broken line of supercells would
contain a tornado risk given favorable wind shear, while a more
linear storm mode would favor damaging winds possibly with
embedded/QLCS tornado risk. Given cool temperatures aloft, some hail
is expected as well, with size maximized with any lone/discrete
supercells that may exist. Overall, the threat of supercells ahead
of the front does not appear high over KS/OK/SW MO, but an
increasing chance of isolated supercells might increase later
tonight across far eastern OK, western and northern AR, and south
central MO as the richer moisture lifts northeastward.

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Mesoscale Discussion 0259
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0611 PM CST Mon Mar 06 2017

Areas affected...Portions of central and southern Minnesota and much
of Iowa

Concerning...Tornado Watch 61...63...

Valid 070011Z - 070215Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 61, 63 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat persists primarily along and ahead of a
cold front traversing the region. Tornadoes, large hail, and
damaging wind gusts remain possible with this activity.

DISCUSSION...An extensive, broken band of storms continues to move
northeastward across WWs 61 and 63 just ahead of a cold front over
central Minnesota and western Iowa. These storms are in a favorable
environment for a continued threat of all severe hazards, especially
damaging winds associated with more organized linear segments. A
few areas of rotation have also been noted within more isolated
cells and breaks in the squall line, and a few reports of tornadoes
and very large hail have occurred over the past hour or so from
central Minnesota southward into western Iowa.

Over time, models and observations continue to suggest that the
ongoing squall line will continue to further organize and strengthen
especially over Iowa. Warm advection ahead of the storms will
maintain weak to moderate instability and strong low-level and deep
layer shear will foster a continued severe wind and tornado threat,
especially near LEWPs and bow echoes that can evolve within the
line. The line should reach western portions of Wisconsin beginning
within the next hour and eastern portions of WW 61 (in Iowa) after
about 03Z.

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Mesoscale Discussion 0260
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0631 PM CST Mon Mar 06 2017

Areas affected...Northeast Kansas into northwest Missouri

Concerning...Tornado Watch 62...

Valid 070031Z - 070230Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 62 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat of tornadoes, damaging wind and hail persists
across the watch area.

DISCUSSION...Tornadoes have been noted recently across parts of
northeast Kansas along with several areas of strong rotation within
storms on radar. Overall storm mode along the cold front has
transitioned to QLCS/LEWPs with both damaging wind and tornado
threat. Observed VWPs ahead of the line show 0-1 SRH in excess of
400 m2/s2, highly supportive of mesocyclones and tornadoes. Leading
line of showers/thunderstorms ahead of and paralleling the front
appear to be disjointed from any boundary-layer propagation and are
essentially left-moving. The main risk will continue to be with
storms along the front.
Dome, dome, dome..The life is a dome

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maatii96
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor maatii96 » Lun Mar 06, 2017 10:12 pm

Hermosas superceldas por delante de la línea

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El sondeo más reciente de Springfield...

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(Edit 22:56) Impresionante

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Hice una medición aproximada con el Google Maps y esa línea tiene casi 900 km de extensión, tremendo.

Clarito el frente frío

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stormchaserAlberto
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor stormchaserAlberto » Lun Mar 06, 2017 11:13 pm

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Mesoscale Discussion 0261
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 PM CST Mon Mar 06 2017

Areas affected...Western Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 070100Z - 070300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A broken line of strong to severe storms will move into
the region beginning between 0100-0130Z. An isolated wind damage
threat will exist with this activity.

DISCUSSION...A broken band of strong to severe storms persists over
far eastern Minnesota currently. A general weakening trend has been
observed especially on the northern end of this band of storms
(about 70 NNE MSP). 50s to low 60s F surface temperatures exist
immediately downstream of this activity in southeastern Minnesota
and far western Wisconsin, which was contributing to 500-1000 J/kg
MUCAPE and a marginal severe wind threat continuing in the
short-term, although nocturnal boundary layer cooling should result
in continued weakening of instability with eastward extent.

At this time, the eastward extent of the severe threat is in
question. Convective trends will be monitored for the possibility
of a small severe thunderstorm watch issuance.

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Mesoscale Discussion 0262
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0719 PM CST Mon Mar 06 2017

Areas affected...Northwestern Missouri

Concerning...Tornado Watch 62...

Valid 070119Z - 070315Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 62 continues.

SUMMARY...Portions of northwestern Missouri have a conditional
significant tornado threat this evening.

DISCUSSION...Radar shows line of pre-frontal convection has quickly
transitioned into supercells. The Kansas City area VWP shows 0-1 SRH
over 600 m2/s2, along with 2-3 mb pressure falls noted over the last
two hours. Unless the cold front/outflow from the squall line
undercuts the cells, there could be a threat of significant
tornadoes over northwest Missouri this evening.

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Mesoscale Discussion 0263
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 PM CST Mon Mar 06 2017

Areas affected...eastern Iowa and northwestern Illinois

Concerning...Tornado Watch 61...

Valid 070142Z - 070245Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 61 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across the remainder of WW 61.
This threat should eventually evolve eastward into downstream areas
of Illinois. A new watch will be coordinated within the next hour
or so.

DISCUSSION...A strong to severe squall line has emerged across
central Iowa. This line has been responsible for numerous reports
of hail and wind, along with occasional tornado reports. These
storms are in an environment characterized by weak to moderate
instability, but very strong low-level and deep layer shear, which
has support occasional rotation and bow/LEWP-type patterns within
the line.

This line should gradually shift east of WW 61 over the next one to
two hours, with an attendant severe wind/hail and tornado threat
continuing downstream into Illinois. A new severe weather watch
will be coordinated with affected offices within the next hour or
so.

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Mesoscale Discussion 0264
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0810 PM CST Mon Mar 06 2017

Areas affected...Much of western into northern Arkansas into
southeastern Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 070210Z - 070445Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A tornado watch will likely be needed across parts of
Arkansas into southeast Missouri later this evening.

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a relative moist plume across
the Arklatex and central Arkansas with dewpoints rising into the
middle 60s. Meanwhile, shear is already strong well ahead of the
cold front, with low-level jet core continuing to strengthen. 0-1 km
SRH currently stands in the 500-600 m2/s2 range over much of
southern Missouri into western Arkansas, which is excessive.

Sporadic showers continue to form across western Arkansas, supported
by terrain upslope as well as the moistening air mass. With time, as
slight cooling aloft occurs and the low pressure trough nears,
showers/storms are expected to become stronger, with isolated
supercells possible ahead of the primary frontal squall line. Shear
will strongly favor rotating storms, and tornado potential
especially with discrete storms. However, damaging wind and even
brief tornadoes will also remain possible with the squall line as
well.

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Mesoscale Discussion 0265
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0822 PM CST Mon Mar 06 2017

Areas affected...western Illinois and eastern/northeastern Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 070222Z - 070445Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat should increase after about 03Z-0330Z or
so in the discussion area, with all modes of severe weather
possible. A tornado watch will likely be needed.

DISCUSSION...A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is making
steady eastward progress through north-central Missouri, the Kansas
City metro area, and southeastern Kansas at this time. These storms
are in an environment characterized by weak to moderate instability,
but very strong low-level shear (0-1km SRH >600 m2/s2 in a few
areas) partially aided by a strengthened low-level jet. Continued
warm advection due to this jet along with cooling mid-level
temperatures should allow for increasing instability in the
discussion area overnight ahead of the storms, with all modes of
severe likely as storms reach the region, perhaps as early as 0300Z.
A secondary area of scattered, more cellular convective development
may also evolve out of southwestern Missouri and pose a supercell
tornado threat, although this scenario is currently less clear.

Given the aforementioned factors, a tornado watch will likely be
needed in the discussion area within the next 1-2 hours.
Dome, dome, dome..The life is a dome


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