Seguimiento general en EEUU

Avatar de Usuario
stormchaserAlberto
Mensajes: 5865
Registrado: Jue Feb 20, 2014 2:34 am
Ubicación: Río Tercero,Córdoba.
Contactar:

Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor stormchaserAlberto » Lun Mar 06, 2017 11:59 pm

Imagen
SPOILER - El siguiente texto está oculto. Presioná en la barra para mostrarlo.
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 64
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
650 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Western Arkansas
Southeast Kansas
Southern Missouri
Eastern Oklahoma

* Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 650 PM
until 300 AM CST.

* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to develop
along a cold front as it overtakes a dryline across south-central
Kansas and west-central Oklahoma. Additional more isolated supercell
storms may also develop ahead of the front this evening as low-level
moisture continues to increase across the region. Large hail,
damaging winds, and tornadoes will all be possible.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles
north and south of a line from 45 miles west of Bartlesville OK to
40 miles southeast of Fort Leonard Wood MO. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 61...WW 62...WW 63...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 24035.

Imagen
SPOILER - El siguiente texto está oculto. Presioná en la barra para mostrarlo.
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 65
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
740 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Western and southern Wisconsin

* Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 740 PM
until 200 AM CST.

* Primary threats include...
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...A fast-moving squall line will pose a threat for mainly
damaging winds as it races east-northeastward across portions of
Wisconsin.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45
statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles north northwest
of Camp Douglas WI to 50 miles south of Lonerock WI. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

Imagen
SPOILER - El siguiente texto está oculto. Presioná en la barra para mostrarlo.
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 66
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
850 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Eastern Iowa
Western Illinois
Eastern Missouri

* Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 850 PM
until 400 AM CST.

* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible

SUMMARY...A fast-moving squall line will further accelerate
east-northeastward through the late evening and overnight hours,
posing a damaging wind and tornado risk across eastern portions of
Iowa and Missouri into western Illinois.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles
east and west of a line from 15 miles east northeast of Dubuque IA
to 55 miles southwest of Farmington MO. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU6).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

Imagen
SPOILER - El siguiente texto está oculto. Presioná en la barra para mostrarlo.
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 67
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
920 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Northern and central Arkansas
Southeast Missouri

* Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 920 PM
until 500 AM CST.

* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Semi-discrete supercell storms are expected to develop
initially across the northern half of Arkansas through the late
evening hours. Given extreme low-level shear and increasingly
low-level moisture, any sustained storm could be a capable of
producing a tornado. More numerous storms will move across the
region later tonight as an upstream cold front approaches from the
northwest, with a damaging wind and some tornado risk continuing
overnight.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
north and south of a line from 65 miles west northwest of Hot
Springs AR to 40 miles east of Poplar Bluff MO. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
Dome, dome, dome..The life is a dome

Avatar de Usuario
stormchaserAlberto
Mensajes: 5865
Registrado: Jue Feb 20, 2014 2:34 am
Ubicación: Río Tercero,Córdoba.
Contactar:

Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor stormchaserAlberto » Mar Mar 07, 2017 12:35 am

Imagen
SPOILER - El siguiente texto está oculto. Presioná en la barra para mostrarlo.
Mesoscale Discussion 0266
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0916 PM CST Mon Mar 06 2017

Areas affected...Far eastern Oklahoma into northwestern Arkansas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 64...

Valid 070316Z - 070515Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 64 continues.

SUMMARY...Tornadic supercells may eventually evolve out of a cluster
of storms currently over eastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas.

DISCUSSION...Radar shows a cluster of storms increasing in intensity
and coverage across much of northwestern AR into far eastern OK.
Cells are already showing mesocyclones at times. This cluster of
developing and evolving cells will continue to have access to
relatively warmer surface air with mid 70s upstream as dewpoints
remain in the lower 60s. Given these storms are well ahead of the
cold front, a few of them could become tornadic supercells. A strong
tornado could occur given extreme/rare shear values with 0-1 km SRH
of 500-600 m2/s2 and continued pressure falls as the surface trough
approaches.

Additional pre-frontal discrete storms may also form farther west of
the current cluster, just before the cold front/squall line moves
through.
Dome, dome, dome..The life is a dome

Avatar de Usuario
stormchaserAlberto
Mensajes: 5865
Registrado: Jue Feb 20, 2014 2:34 am
Ubicación: Río Tercero,Córdoba.
Contactar:

Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor stormchaserAlberto » Mar Mar 07, 2017 12:44 am

Parece que hubo un tornado cerca de Kansas City, Kansas.
Dome, dome, dome..The life is a dome

Avatar de Usuario
stormchaserAlberto
Mensajes: 5865
Registrado: Jue Feb 20, 2014 2:34 am
Ubicación: Río Tercero,Córdoba.
Contactar:

Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor stormchaserAlberto » Mar Mar 07, 2017 1:20 am

Imagen
SPOILER - El siguiente texto está oculto. Presioná en la barra para mostrarlo.

Mesoscale Discussion 0267
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1015 PM CST Mon Mar 06 2017

Areas affected...southeastern Wisconsin and portions of northern
Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 070415Z - 070515Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Expansive line of strong to severe thunderstorms will
approach the discussion area within the next 1-2 hours. A lingering
damaging wind threat may exist with these storms.

DISCUSSION...Ongoing line of strong to severe storms persists from
central Wisconsin (near CWA) south-southwestward to near BRL in
western Illinois and into far northeastern Missouri. These storms
were in a strongly sheared, but weakly to moderately unstable
environment, leading to several bow/LEWP-type signatures. Multiple
wind/hail reports have been received with this activity throughout
the evening along with a few tornado reports.

With time, these storms should reach the eastern portions of WW 65
(in southern Wisconsin) around 0430-0500Z and reach eastern portions
of WW 66 (in northern Illinois) by around 0445-0515Z. They will
continue to pose a wind and tornado threat until then, but
diminishing instability with eastward extent should act to mitigate
the severe threat. Trends will be monitored for any lingering
threat, which may necessitate a severe thunderstorm watch issuance.
Dome, dome, dome..The life is a dome

Avatar de Usuario
stormchaserAlberto
Mensajes: 5865
Registrado: Jue Feb 20, 2014 2:34 am
Ubicación: Río Tercero,Córdoba.
Contactar:

Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor stormchaserAlberto » Mar Mar 07, 2017 2:07 am

Imagen
SPOILER - El siguiente texto está oculto. Presioná en la barra para mostrarlo.
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 68
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1035 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northern and eastern Illinois
Southeast Wisconsin
Lake Michigan

* Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 1035 PM
until 500 AM CST.

* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...A fast-moving squall line will continue to pose a risk for
damaging winds and possibly a brief tornado or two as it races
east-northeastward through the overnight hours.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40
statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles north northwest
of Milwaukee WI to 25 miles west southwest of Mattoon IL. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 64...WW 65...WW 66...WW
67...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
24050.
Dome, dome, dome..The life is a dome

Avatar de Usuario
stormchaserAlberto
Mensajes: 5865
Registrado: Jue Feb 20, 2014 2:34 am
Ubicación: Río Tercero,Córdoba.
Contactar:

Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor stormchaserAlberto » Mar Mar 07, 2017 2:33 am

Y siguen aun con riesgo de tornados :shock:
Imagen
SPOILER - El siguiente texto está oculto. Presioná en la barra para mostrarlo.
Mesoscale Discussion 0268
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1113 PM CST Mon Mar 06 2017

Areas affected...Southern...central and eastern Missouri...southern
Illinois

Concerning...Tornado Watch 64...66...

Valid 070513Z - 070715Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 64, 66 continues.

SUMMARY...A threat of damaging winds and brief tornadoes continues
across much of Missouri, and may extend into Illinois later tonight.

DISCUSSION...A severe squall line, with embedded supercells at
times, continues eastward across western Illinois into central
Missouri. Surface analysis shows very strong pressure rises, on the
order of 8-10 mb/2hr behind the front, with 2-3 mb falls across
central Missouri. This suggests a continued tornado and damaging
wind threat, possibly extending across and beyond the St. Louis area
later this evening. 0-1 SRH values remain in excess of 600-700 m2/s2
ahead of the line, suggesting QLCS tornadoes remain a threat.

Farther east into Illinois, strong southerly winds will maintain at
least a marginally unstable air mass, which will likely be
sufficient for at least severe wind gusts given the approaching
squall line and very strong shear profiles in place. As such,
another watch may be needed for southern Illinois and vicinity.
Dome, dome, dome..The life is a dome

Avatar de Usuario
stormchaserAlberto
Mensajes: 5865
Registrado: Jue Feb 20, 2014 2:34 am
Ubicación: Río Tercero,Córdoba.
Contactar:

Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor stormchaserAlberto » Mar Mar 07, 2017 3:04 am

Oak Grove, Missouri.
Imagen
Dome, dome, dome..The life is a dome

Avatar de Usuario
tormentas_vtuerto
Mensajes: 562
Registrado: Mar Oct 04, 2016 11:17 am
Ubicación: Venado Tuerto, Santa Fe, Argentina

Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor tormentas_vtuerto » Mar Mar 07, 2017 8:08 pm

Naaa. Tremenda esa línea viejo. El frente debe ser descomunal.
Valentin

Avatar de Usuario
stormchaserAlberto
Mensajes: 5865
Registrado: Jue Feb 20, 2014 2:34 am
Ubicación: Río Tercero,Córdoba.
Contactar:

Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor stormchaserAlberto » Mar Mar 07, 2017 8:31 pm

Ya anda por el sur de los Estados Unidos, en sus ultimos momentos de vida :P
Dome, dome, dome..The life is a dome

Avatar de Usuario
stormchaserAlberto
Mensajes: 5865
Registrado: Jue Feb 20, 2014 2:34 am
Ubicación: Río Tercero,Córdoba.
Contactar:

Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor stormchaserAlberto » Jue Mar 09, 2017 1:12 pm

Ok. Vamos de vuelta! :P
Imagen
% de tornados.
Imagen
% de vientos.
Imagen
% de granizo.
Imagen
Discusion:
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CST Thu Mar 09 2017

Valid 091300Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN
KS AND NORTHEASTERN OK ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
SLIGHT RISK...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening across the Ozark Plateau and vicinity, with an attendant
risk of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. A threat
for locally severe winds may also extend eastward into the Tennessee
Valley overnight.

...Synopsis...
The mid/upper-level pattern over the contiguous U.S. through the
period will be dominated by slow-moving cyclones over Hudson Bay and
the eastern Gulf of Alaska, and the very wide belt of mainly
west-northwesterly flow crossing North America to their south. That
flow field also will be gently cyclonic from the northern Plains and
upper Mississippi Valley across the Great Lakes to the Northeast.
Embedded shortwave features mainly will be small in amplitude, the
most relevant of which are evident in moisture-channel imagery over
WY and over the Four Corners area. These perturbations should phase
loosely today, with the resulting 500-mb height trough reaching MO,
central/eastern OK, and northwest TX by 00Z. The trough should
strengthen gradually through the remainder of the period and reach
the southern Appalachians by 12Z.

A surface cold front now intensifying over the upper Great Lakes and
north-central plains will move southward today, overtaking a
pre-existing, weaker, quasistationary frontal zone now evident from
southern IL across northeastern, central and southwestern KS. By
12Z the combined front should reach VA, southern TN/northern AL, the
Arklatex region, and northwest TX. A dryline, now located over
parts of western OK, the southeastern TX Panhandle, the South Plains
region, and the Trans-Pecos, should mix eastward this afternoon to
the lower Pecos Valley, west-central/northwest TX, and southwestern
through central OK, then will be overtaken over OK by the cold front
tonight.

...Ozarks to Tennessee Valley...
Multiple rounds of convection are likely across the region today,
leading off with isolated non-severe thunderstorms ongoing over the
LA/AR border region and shifting eastward across the lower
Mississippi Valley toward MS this morning.

Additional elevated convection may form later this morning along the
leading portions of the low-level warm-advection regime over
southeastern KS. Strengthening of the 850-mb height gradient (and
the associated LLJ) is forecast despite the diurnal timing, as the
mid/upper-level perturbation approaches, contributing to a favorable
combination of warm-advection related increase in moisture/thetae,
destabilization, isentropic lift to LFC, and storm-relative inflow.
Activity should shift east-southeastward across southern MO and
perhaps northern AR this afternoon. Depending on the equatorward
extent of near-surface static-stability reinforcement by either:
(a) its own outflow or
(b) additional, likely surface-based activity to its south,
...some of the convection also may become surface-based this
afternoon, as boundary-layer warming/mixing lowers the altitude of
inflow-layer parcels. As such, the occurrence and breadth of such
favorable destabilization is conditional and uncertain, but may
contribute to an expanded damaging-wind area with eastward extent in
concert with the next probable convective regime discussed below.

Additional development is expected either along the southern rim of
the initial/elevated activity and/or its outflow-reinforced
boundary, moving east-southeastward in a CAPE/shear parameter space
favorable both for supercells and bow echoes. Despite the somewhat
weak (about 10 kt), veered (south-southwesterly to southwesterly)
character of the surface flow, forecast soundings from locations
with surface-based inflow parcels show the presence of veering with
height into the LLJ layer. This yields elongated/curved low-level
hodographs with effective SRH in the 200-350 J/kg range -- enough to
yield favorable SRH for supercells, in addition to the development
of 35-45-kt effective-shear magnitudes. Surface dew points
increasing into the mid 50s to low 60s F in the moist-sector return
flow, and diurnal heating, should combine to boost preconvective
MLCAPE to the 1000-2000 J/kg range mid-late afternoon.

The main uncertainty on tornado threat, and to some extent large
hail as well, will be how quickly a transition occurs from
supercellular to clustered/bowing convective mode. Ultimately, a
forward-propagating MCS with damaging-wind potential should evolve
from these initial convective regimes. This activity would move
east-southeastward across parts of the Ozarks and Mid-South. At
least marginal wind potential (and perhaps more) exists with
cold-pool-forced activity extending well into tonight across the
Tennessee Valley region, in spite of a diabatically stabilizing
boundary layer.

A more conditional threat exists over eastern OK and western AR for
convection to either backbuild southwestward from the primary Ozarks
complex or develop in a zone of frontal convergence this evening and
overnight. Guidance reasonably is inconsistent with this
possibility, given its strong dependence on the influence of
forward-propagational/cold-pool processes of the second-phase
development discussed above. Unconditional marginal probabilities
are expended southward somewhat to account for this scenario, but
uncertainty is too great to do a greater upgrade at this time.

...Southwest OK, west-central/northwest TX...
A conditional potential exists for isolated/brief severe wind or
near-severe hail with short-lived, deep convective development along
the dryline this afternoon, generally north of SJT. Farther south,
denser high-cloud over and weaker flow should limit lift even
further. The most-aggressive model scenarios of heating/mixing
remove all CINH and show around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE atop a well-mixed
subcloud layer, before nocturnal cooling drastically reduces
buoyancy. However, in addition to mesoscale to convective-scale
convergence/mass-continuity and entrainment concerns common to these
situations, mid/upper-level support is weak, and a thick plume of
cirrus is evident upstream, from anvil material of active convection
in northern MX and the Big Bend/Davis Mountain region. This should
temper heating/mixing somewhat and certainly makes any forecast for
sustained convection moving off the dryline very conditional and
unclear at this time. For now, unconditional probabilities appear
too low for a severe area, but may need to be added in an update if
mesoscale trends and guidance become more consistent.

La proxima actualizacion, esta prevista para las 16:30z(13:30 nuestra).
Dome, dome, dome..The life is a dome


Volver a “Seguimiento Internacional”

¿Quién está conectado?

Usuarios navegando por este Foro: No hay usuarios registrados visitando el Foro y 1 invitado