Seguimiento general en EEUU

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stormchaserAlberto
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor stormchaserAlberto » Dom Abr 02, 2017 5:31 pm

Alexandria, Louisiana.
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Mesoscale Discussion 0407
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0331 PM CDT Sun Apr 02 2017

Areas affected...Portions of southeast AR and northern/central MS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch needed soon

Valid 022031Z - 022100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is forthcoming for portions of
the area.

DISCUSSION...Convection associated with the northern extent of an
MCS is being enhanced by an MCV. As the downshear airmass continues
destabilizing, the risk for severe wind gusts will spread eastward.

..Cohen/Hart.. 04/02/2017
Dome, dome, dome..The life is a dome

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stormchaserAlberto
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor stormchaserAlberto » Dom Abr 02, 2017 6:00 pm

Alexandria, Louisiana.
Link al tweet
Dome, dome, dome..The life is a dome

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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor jotape » Dom Abr 02, 2017 7:31 pm

Vieron el sondeo pronosticado que posteó Reed!? Terrible..

Enviado desde mi SM-A510M mediante Tapatalk
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor stormchaserAlberto » Dom Abr 02, 2017 7:53 pm

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 111
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
450 PM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southeastern Louisiana
Central and southern Mississippi

* Effective this Sunday afternoon and Monday morning from 450 PM
until 200 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...The tornado and organized severe-wind threat will increase
through the remainder of this evening as a warm front moves across
the region ahead of a line of thunderstorms initially in Louisiana.
That line will sweep into the watch area, absorbing nearby
supercells and generating its own circulations, with embedded
tornadoes possible. A few separate supercells also should occur
ahead of the line, offering tornadoes and isolated large hail. See
SPC mesoscale discussion 405 for initial meteorological reasoning.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles
east and west of a line from 30 miles east southeast of Baton Rouge
LA to 40 miles east northeast of Greenwood MS. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 110...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean
storm motion vector 23030.

...Edwards

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 112
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
520 PM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northern Mississippi

* Effective this Sunday afternoon and Monday morning from 520 PM
until 100 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
Isolated significant damaging wind gusts to 75 mph possible

SUMMARY...The northern part of a thunderstorm complex, led by a bow
echo, will move over a strip of northern Mississippi, north of a
warm front. Though it generally will be moving over a relatively
dry and more-stable surface air mass with time, that dry air
actually can favor maintenance of strong to severe gusts to the
ground until the storms weaken too much. Please see SPC mesoscale
discussion 409 for initial meteorological details.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 20
statute miles north and south of a line from 65 miles west of Oxford
MS to 30 miles east southeast of Tupelo MS. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU2).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 110...WW 111...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
24035.

...Edwards

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Mesoscale Discussion 0408
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0423 PM CDT Sun Apr 02 2017

Areas affected...Portions of the middle and lower TX Coast

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 022123Z - 030000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur across the middle
and lower TX Coast into the evening hours. While environmental and
radar trends will continue to be monitored, present indications are
that the severe risk should be too isolated for watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Weak low-level ascent along an aggregate outflow / sea
breeze / prefrontal trough, extending about 30 miles inland from the
TX Coast, is supporting towering cumulus and isolated thunderstorm
development. The combination of weak low-level flow and related
convergence per area VAD wind profiles and surface observations, and
ample midlevel drying per water vapor imagery, suggest that updraft
development could be hindered. However, with the approach of a
midlevel vorticity maximum from the west, some increase in
thunderstorm development may occur along the aforementioned
aggregate boundary through the evening hours.

Rich low-level moisture and strong surface heating supporting
2500-3500 J/kg of MLCAPE may conditionally support a few sustained
and deep updrafts. Moreover, with 55-65 kt of effective shear,
organized convection and perhaps an isolated supercell or two could
evolve. Sporadic instances of severe wind and/or hail may accompany
this activity into the evening hours, before nocturnal
destabilization results in a diminishing severe risk.

..Cohen/Edwards.. 04/02/2017

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Mesoscale Discussion 0409
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0506 PM CDT Sun Apr 02 2017

Areas affected...Portions of the Mississippi Valley

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 022206Z - 022330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A bow echo is approaching northern Mississippi early this
evening. While the air mass becomes less favorable for strong winds
with northeastward extent, some residual damaging-wind threat
downstream of Watch 110 may necessitate a small severe thunderstorm
watch.

DISCUSSION...A mature bow echo is accelerating northeastward through
northern portions of Watch 110 currently. Surface observations
depict a strong pressure rise/fall dipole pattern, with 2+ mb/hr
rises behind the line and 1.5-2 mb/hr falls ahead of the line. On
the nose of stronger southwesterly mid-level flow, this line should
continue to advance northeastward rapidly, likely reaching the
northern extent of Watch 110 by 23Z. While southeasterly flow is
transporting warm/moist air northward across Mississippi, the speed
of this bow will likely outpace significant low-level
destabilization, resulting in an eventual downturn in overall
intensity. Nonetheless, considering the current organization of the
line and the potential for enhanced mixing within a drier low-level
air mass to its northeast, some damaging-wind threat may extend
beyond the current watch. Therefore, new issuance could be needed
within the next hour across northern Mississippi.

..Picca/Edwards.. 04/02/2017
Dome, dome, dome..The life is a dome

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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor stormchaserAlberto » Dom Abr 02, 2017 8:06 pm

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Mesoscale Discussion 0410
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0554 PM CDT Sun Apr 02 2017

Areas affected...Portions of extreme southeastern Texas and
central/southern Louisiana

Concerning...Tornado Watch 110...

Valid 022254Z - 030030Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 110 continues.

SUMMARY...A threat for a couple tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and
a few instances of large hail remains across southern/central
portions of Watch 110.

DISCUSSION...Radar trends across the Sabine Valley depict confluent
bands of convection feeding into the upshear flank of a larger-scale
convective system over the Mid-South this evening. With an evolution
towards a more southwest-northeast band of convection, low-level
shear vectors are now oriented more line-parallel, potentially
reducing the threat for multiple QLCS circulations. Nonetheless,
smaller-scale bow structures and related inflection points embedded
within the broader line may still yield a threat for damaging wind
gusts and a couple tornadoes this evening. Additionally, continued
large-scale ascent with the approach of the main trough is fostering
more discrete convective development along the aforementioned
confluent bands within the open warm sector. These cells exist
within a warm/moist environment characterized by continued ample
storm-relative helicity. As such, there will likely remain a threat
for a couple tornadoes, damaging gusts, and some large hail over the
next several hours.

..Picca.. 04/02/2017
Dome, dome, dome..The life is a dome

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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor stormchaserAlberto » Dom Abr 02, 2017 10:24 pm

Ultima actualización del día de hoy. Lo bajaron bastante al riesgo.
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% de tornados.
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% de vientos.
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Discusion:
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Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Sun Apr 02 2017

Valid 030100Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR A LARGE
PART OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...AND FAR WEST-CENTRAL ALABAMA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN ALABAMA...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
SLIGHT RISK...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms are possible tonight over the
southeastern half of Louisiana, much of Mississippi, and western
Alabama. Widespread damaging winds are possible, including the risk
for a strong tornado or two during the overnight across parts of
southeastern Louisiana and south-central Mississippi.

...Central Gulf Coast states...
An extensive squall line from the lower Sabine Valley northeastward
into northern Mississippi will serve as the western delimiter for
strong/severe thunderstorms tonight. A very moisture-rich air mass
south of a warm front over southern MS will gradually advance
northward into central MS tonight and southwestern AL. Steep
700-500 mb lapse rates (7 degrees C/km) sampled in the warm sector
from 00z LCH and LIX raobs are contributing to moderate buoyancy
(2500 J/kg MLCAPE). As the mid-level trough over TX pivots
northeast towards the Ozarks tonight, the strong low-level and
deep-layer shear profiles will remain in place across the warm
sector. Isolated cells may continue to develop ahead of the squall
line and pose a risk for large hail, damaging gusts, and a tornado
(possibly strong/damaging) given the large looping hodographs
sampled by area 88D VAD winds. Short-term models suggest an
acceleration of the southern portion of the squall line across LA
and MS tonight. Widespread damaging winds are possible with the
squall line, especially near large embedded cores where an embedded
supercell tornado and/or mesovortex-tornado risk may develop.

Farther east, the 00z BMX raob north of the warm front was
dry/stable. Yet, strong low-level flow with accompanying moisture
will gradually destabilize the eastern parts of MS into AL during
the overnight. Models suggest the pre-frontal squall line will move
into this area during the 06-12z period. Isolated damaging winds
will be the primary threat but a tornado is possible farther south
in closer proximity to the richer moisture.

..Smith.. 04/03/2017

Proxima actualizacion: 06:00z
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Mesoscale Discussion 0411
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0807 PM CDT Sun Apr 02 2017

Areas affected...Portions of southern/central Louisiana and extreme
southeastern Texas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 110...

Valid 030107Z - 030230Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 110 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds and a few tornadoes may
increase some across the discussion area over the next 2-3 hours. A
new watch will be issued prior to the 02Z expiration of Tornado
Watch 110 across the Lake Charles, LA county warning area.

DISCUSSION...Opposing propagation and advection vectors have led to
a relatively stationary southwest-northeast band of strong/severe
convection this evening over extreme southeast Texas and
southern/central Louisiana. The 00Z LCH sounding sampled deep
southerly flow which is continuing to transport ample moisture
towards this linear system. Additionally, relatively steep 700-500mb
lapse rates (around 7 C/km) are contributing to MLCAPE values around
2000-3000 J/kg along and to the south of the ongoing complex.

As large-scale forcing for ascent amplifies in response to an
approaching impulse (noted over south-central Texas in water-vapor
imagery), ascending parcels along the southwest edge of this line
should be able to reach their LFC more efficiently. The band will
then likely re-orient in a more meridional fashion as it advances
eastward, encountering an unstable environment with effective SRH
around 200-300 m2/s2. In turn, a threat for damaging winds and a few
embedded tornadoes may increase somewhat within the next 2-3 hours.
A new watch will be issued to replace Watch 110 in the Lake Charles
CWA.

..Picca.. 04/03/2017
Dome, dome, dome..The life is a dome

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stormchaserAlberto
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor stormchaserAlberto » Dom Abr 02, 2017 10:44 pm

Y siguen los watches! :o Falta poco para que salga de vigencia el tornado watch por PDS(Situacion Particularmente Peligrosa, en ingles).
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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 113
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
820 PM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
South-central and southwestern Louisiana
Coastal Waters

* Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 820 PM
until 200 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...A band of thunderstorms is expected to reorient more
north-south and begin to progress eastward over the watch area
tonight, offering damaging gusts and the risk for embedded
tornadoes. The potential still exists for tornadic supercells ahead
of the line as well. See SPC mesoscale discussion 411 for initial
meteorological details. This effectively replaces tornado watch 110
in the Lake Charles WFO warning area.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles
either side of a line from 30 miles west of Intracoastal City LA to
60 miles east northeast of Fort Polk LA. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 110...WW 111...WW 112...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean
storm motion vector 24030.

...Edwards
Dome, dome, dome..The life is a dome

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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor stormchaserAlberto » Dom Abr 02, 2017 11:31 pm

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Mesoscale Discussion 0412
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0909 PM CDT Sun Apr 02 2017

Areas affected...Portions of southeastern Louisiana and
southern/central Mississippi

Concerning...Tornado Watch 111...

Valid 030209Z - 030415Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 111 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes
still exists across the watch into the overnight hours.

DISCUSSION...While northern portions of the watch have stabilized
owing to earlier convection and ongoing precipitation, MLCAPE over
1000 J/kg (e.g., 00 UTC LIX sounding) remains in place across the
warm sector over southeastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi.
Discrete storms developing in the warm sector ahead of the main QLCS
will pose the greatest threat for tornadoes and large hail over the
next few hours.

With time, the quasi-stationary QLCS extending southwest-northeast
across central Louisiana and Mississippi is expected to assume a
more meridional orientation, as the shortwave approaching from the
west rotates through the base of the main trough. Consequently,
damaging winds from an eastward-propagating MCS will likely become
the primary severe weather threat by 05-06Z, though embedded
circulations in the line will still pose a tornado risk.

..Jirak.. 04/03/2017
Dome, dome, dome..The life is a dome

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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor stormchaserAlberto » Lun Abr 03, 2017 8:29 pm

Convective outlook ya actualizado para esta noche.
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% de tornados.
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% de vientos.
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Discusion:
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Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 PM CDT Mon Apr 03 2017

Valid 032000Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN GA AND MUCH OF SC...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CAROLINAS TO THE FL PANHANDLE...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHERN VA TO NORTHERN FL...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MID-SOUTH TO LOWER OH VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A threat for damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes will continue
from the northeast Gulf Coast into parts of the Carolinas through
this evening. Isolated strong storms remain possible over the
middle Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys this afternoon.

...20Z Update...
30% wind probabilities have been extended to the SC Coast with this
update. A broken squall line with supercells ahead of it will
continue to pose both a damaging wind and isolated tornado threat as
they move east-northeastward through the remainder of the afternoon
into the early evening hours. Airmass downstream of this ongoing
convection remains unstable up to roughly the NC/SC border, which
should support continued maintenance of the line. Elsewhere, severe
probabilities have been removed behind the line, and marginally
severe hail/gusty winds should remain possible across parts of the
Mid-South into the lower OH Valley region for a few more hours
before eventual the loss of daytime heating reduces instability and
the marginal severe threat.

..Gleason.. 04/03/2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Mon Apr 03 2017/

...GA/SC/NC...
A long-lived squall line continues to track eastward across western
GA, southeast AL, and the western FL Panhandle. The air mass ahead
of the line is slowly warming/moistening, with afternoon MLCAPE
values of around 1000 J/kg. Strong low-level wind fields and
steepening low-level lapse rates will promote the risk of locally
damaging wind gusts along the leading edge of the line. Also,
strong low-level shear and mesoscale organization of the line
supports a risk of a few QLCS tornadoes this afternoon.

Recent radar trends and most 12z models also show a few
thunderstorms developing today in the warm sector ahead of the line
over eastern GA and parts of SC. Local VAD profiles and forecast
soundings show ample low-level shear - supportive of supercells and
even a few tornadoes. Model guidance suggests that the number of
robust cells in this environment will probably be low, but there is
some concern of a discrete supercell or two capable of tornadoes
this afternoon.

...OH/MS Valley Region...
Breaks in the clouds are slowly increasing across parts of AR/MO in
vicinity of an upper low. Later this afternoon, at least marginal
CAPE values and cold temperatures aloft will promote the risk of a
few strong cells capable of hail and/or damaging winds. At this
time, the risk is expected to remain isolated and marginal.

Proxima actualizacion: 01:00z.
-------------------------------------------------------------
Ultimas discusiones a mesoescala.
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Mesoscale Discussion 0414
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 AM CDT Mon Apr 03 2017

Areas affected...Parts of central to northeast AL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 030651Z - 030845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...An elevated cluster of thunderstorms will track to the
east-northeast across central to northeast AL through 09-10Z.
Locally strong wind gusts of 40-50 kt will be possible. Overall
limited coverage and severe threat with this cluster of storms
precludes the need for severe-weather watch.

DISCUSSION...Trends in mosaic radar imagery showed a small cluster
of storms moving to the east-northeast at 30 kt, and was located
from western Jefferson to Bibb counties at 0625Z. Given 05Z RAP
forecast soundings indicating a dry sub-cloud layer and 50+ kt
velocities on the BMX radar located around 300 ft in western Shelby
county, locally strong winds gusts approaching or exceeding 50 kt
could occur as these storms advance to the east-northeast. This
activity appears to be on the leading northeast edge of higher
precipitable water return across AL, while forcing for ascent with a
northeastward-moving impulse tracks across northern AL into eastern
TN overnight, maintaining convective development.

..Peters/Thompson.. 04/03/2017

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Mesoscale Discussion 0415
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 AM CDT Mon Apr 03 2017

Areas affected...East-central to southern MS...southeast LA...and
southwest to central AL

Concerning...Tornado Watch 114...

Valid 030859Z - 031100Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 114 continues.

SUMMARY...Storms capable of producing damaging winds and a tornado
threat continue to advance east across WW 114 in southeast LA and
southern to east-central MS. The bands of storms, bowing at times,
will advance into southwest and central AL early this morning, with
central portions of AL expected to be affected prior to the Mobile
metro area. A new WW is being considered for parts of central AL.

DISCUSSION...Trends in mosaic radar imagery showed a quasi-linear
MCS advancing steadily toward the east early this morning, while
40-45 kt southerly low-level jet maintains an influx of moisture
northward in advance of the QLCS across WW 114 and in AL. This is
resulting in destabilization into central AL. Although weak
instability at this time in that area, strong bulk shear and an
approaching bowing line from east-central MS could pose a
severe-weather threat with eastward extent. Ongoing shower and
thunderstorms across northern AL should limit the northward extent
of greater destabilization to central parts of that state. These
factors suggest a new WW will need to be considered within the hour
to the east of WW 114.

At 0850Z, the QLCS extended from east-central MS (Kemper to Clarke
counties), and then southwest through southern MS to southeast LA
(approaching Lake Pontchartrain and the New Orleans metro area).
Moderately strong instability and effective bulk shear/vectors of
50+ kt crossing the southern extent of the QLCS into southern MS and
southeast LA suggest embedded tornadoes will remain a threat, in
addition to damaging winds. Latest VWP at Slidell, LA indicated
large low-level hodograph curvature, favoring a continued tornado
threat (0-1 km SRH close to 300 m2/s2).

..Peters/Thompson.. 04/03/2017

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Mesoscale Discussion 0416
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0643 AM CDT Mon Apr 03 2017

Areas affected...Southeast LA...extreme southeast MS...southern
AL...and western and central FL Panhandle

Concerning...Tornado Watch 114...

Valid 031143Z - 031345Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 114 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe-weather including damaging winds and a tornado
threat continues across the eastern half of WW 114 through 14-15Z.
A new tornado watch will be issued around 12Z across the rest of
southern AL into the western and central parts of the FL Panhandle.

DISCUSSION...At 1120Z, mosaic radar imagery showed an
eastward-moving QLCS moving across central and southwest AL, extreme
southeast MS, and far southeast LA. A 50-60 kt southerly low-level
jet extending into southern AL will maintain moisture return beneath
steep midlevel lapse rates. This will result in further
destabilization with MLCAPE values becoming 1500-2000 J/kg to the
east of the ongoing QLCS. Meanwhile, as the upstream shortwave
trough takes on more of a negative tilt today, vertically veering
winds are expected to strengthen into this afternoon enhancing
deep-layer and low-level shear for all severe hazards. Severe
weather will persist across the remaining portion of WW 114 into the
Southeast States, reaching western portions of GA by late morning or
midday, as strong forcing for ascent spreads across the discussion
area.

..Peters/Thompson.. 04/03/2017

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Mesoscale Discussion 0417
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 AM CDT Mon Apr 03 2017

Areas affected...part of central and east-central AL

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 115...

Valid 031245Z - 031415Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 115
continues.

SUMMARY...Locally strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out this morning
across part of central and east-central AL within the valid portion
of WW 115.

DISCUSSION...Despite extensive cloudiness located across much of AL,
further destabilization should occur this morning into the afternoon
as mid 60s surface dew points spread into the eastern part of WW 115
by later this morning. Lightning trends have been generally
diminishing along this portion of the MCS where the environment is
currently marginally unstable. However, the aforementioned
moistening beneath the northern extent of steep midlevel lapse rates
suggests instability should increase this morning. This would
likely allow storms to become surface based and stronger winds in
the low levels (50-60 kt at 850 mb) to reach the surface within
downdrafts, enhancing the threat for damaging winds later this
morning.

..Peters.. 04/03/2017

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Mesoscale Discussion 0418
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0907 AM CDT Mon Apr 03 2017

Areas affected...GA/SC

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 031407Z - 031530Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in areal coverage across
northern/eastern Georgia into South Carolina over the next few
hours. Marginally severe hail and gusty winds appear to be the
primary threats this morning.

DISCUSSION...Low-level warm advection is increasing across GA/SC
this morning as south-southwesterly LLJ translates into this region
ahead of short-wave trough. Convection is developing within a broad
corridor of isentropic ascent and slow intensification is possible
as thunderstorms spread northeast into SC. Observed/forecast
soundings suggest this activity is rooted above the surface and the
elevated nature may limit severe threats to marginally severe
hail/wind in the short-term. Will monitor this region for possible
ww but further destabilization may ultimately be required for more
robust convection.

..Darrow/Hart.. 04/03/2017

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Mesoscale Discussion 0419
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0925 AM CDT Mon Apr 03 2017

Areas affected...Southeast AL/western GA/FL Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 115...116...

Valid 031425Z - 031530Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Organized squall line will advance east of WWs 115/116
over the next few hours. Damaging wind/hail threat will increase
across GA and adjacent portions of the FL Panhandle. New WW will be
issued to account for this threat.

DISCUSSION...Severe threat will increase across GA over the next few
hours as squall line advances east at roughly 25kt. While air mass
has yet to destabilize significantly, breaks in the clouds across
southern GA suggest low-level lapse rates will gradually steepen.
This should enhance the maturation of the progressive squall line
and damaging wind/hail threat will spread downstream.

..Darrow/Hart.. 04/03/2017

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Mesoscale Discussion 0420
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 PM CDT Mon Apr 03 2017

Areas affected...Eastern GA...SC

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 031742Z - 031845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Tornado threat appears to be increasing ahead of a
progressive MCS from eastern GA into SC. Tornado watch may be
issued soon to address this threat.

DISCUSSION...Convective temperatures appear to have been breached
across the warm sector over central GA well ahead of a progressive
MCS. Convection is evolving/deepening within a strongly sheared and
increasingly buoyant air mass that should support supercell
development. A few updrafts have penetrated levels necessary for
lightning discharge and further maturation is expected over the next
few hours. There is increasing concern that a few tornadic
supercells will evolve ahead of the forced line and spread into SC
later this afternoon. Isolated QLCS tornadoes and wind damage may
also be noted along the squall line. Tornado watch will likely be
required to address this threat.

..Darrow/Hart.. 04/03/2017

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Mesoscale Discussion 0421
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 PM CDT Mon Apr 03 2017

Areas affected...Northern FL

Concerning...Tornado Watch 118...

Valid 031921Z - 032015Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 118 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe threat continues across the eastern FL Panhandle
into the northern portions of the FL Peninsula.

DISCUSSION...Leading edge of long-lived MCS, that evolved over the
central Gulf states, has progressed into central GA arcing into the
eastern FL Panhandle. Weak-neutral height falls at this latitude
appear to be partly responsible for a slowing southwest MCS flank
with training convection now developing into the northeast Gulf
Basin. While isolated tornadoes can not be ruled out with this
activity, it appears damaging winds may be the primary severe threat
along with an attendant heavy rain threat due to aforementioned
training.

..Darrow.. 04/03/2017

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Mesoscale Discussion 0422
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Mon Apr 03 2017

Areas affected...Carolinas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 032000Z - 032130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Severe threat should increase across much of the Carolinas
late this afternoon into the evening hours. Damaging winds and
perhaps a few tornadoes are possible. WW may be required.

DISCUSSION...Low-level warm advection is increasing across the
Carolinas as LLJ translates east. While much of the convection
within this corridor is elevated in nature, buoyancy is increasing
across SC as surface dew points rise through the mid 60s. This air
mass should advect northeastward over the next few hours and robust
thunderstorms, potentially supercellular in nature, will spread east
of the current tornado watch. New WW may be warranted soon to
account for this scenario.

..Darrow/Hart.. 04/03/2017

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Mesoscale Discussion 0423
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0502 PM CDT Mon Apr 03 2017

Areas affected...Portions of the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio
Valleys

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 032202Z - 032300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated/scattered thunderstorms may pose a threat for
gusty winds and small hail over the next several hours. However, any
severe threat will remain brief/disorganized, precluding watch
issuance.

DISCUSSION...Diurnal heating and cold 500mb temperatures (around -18
to -20 C based on the 12Z SGF sounding) have promoted the
development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the region
this afternoon. While surface dew points are generally in the 50s,
these cells exist within a thermodynamic environment characterized
by MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg. Additionally, mesoanalysis data
suggest modest heating has led to a small corridor of downdraft CAPE
around 600-900 J/kg ahead of these cells. Unidirectional
southwesterly flow (sampled by the KVWX VWP) within this environment
will likely maintain a few small clusters/bowing segments capable of
gusty winds and perhaps some small hail. The overall threat should
gradually diminish through the mid/late evening, as nocturnal
cooling diminishes surface-based buoyancy. No watch issuance is
expected.

..Picca/Edwards.. 04/03/2017

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Mesoscale Discussion 0424
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0541 PM CDT Mon Apr 03 2017

Areas affected...Central/eastern North Carolina and eastern South
Carolina

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 120...

Valid 032241Z - 032345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 120
continues.

SUMMARY...A thunderstorm wind threat will continue with a line of
storms moving eastward across WW 120, with a more limited downstream
threat across portions of eastern North Carolina.

DISCUSSION...The severe threat across roughly the eastern half of WW
120 continues. A strong to severe squall line continues to move
east-northeastward at around 40 knots across the discussion area and
extends from just west of Raleigh/Durham, NC southward to near
Florence, SC and near Charleston, SC. These storms are in an
environment characterized by relatively weak instability (around 500
J/kg MUCAPE in North Carolina increasing to around 1000-1500 J/kg
along coastal South Carolina areas) and strong low-level and deep
shear which has fostered organization and some bow/LEWP-type
activity. Although a tornado cannot be completely ruled out, the
primary damaging-wind threat should persist across eastern portions
of the watch over the next 1-2 hours. Storms should reach the
eastern extent of the watch across southern NC around 0030-0130 UTC.

Beyond that timeframe, storms should continue to persist, although
thermodynamic profiles are expected to exhibit weakening
surface-based instability with time. Some isolated wind/tree-damage
threat should exist east/northeast of WW 120 and although the
likelihood of a new downstream severe thunderstorm watch appears low
at this time, convective trends will continue to be monitored.

..Cook/Edwards.. 04/03/2017

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Mesoscale Discussion 0425
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0557 PM CDT Mon Apr 03 2017

Areas affected...Portions of northern Florida

Concerning...Tornado Watch 118...119...

Valid 032257Z - 040030Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 118, 119 continues.

SUMMARY...A small corridor for damaging winds and perhaps a brief
tornado may persist across southern portions of the watch. A
temporal extension of Watch 118 may be required if convective trends
warrant. Elsewhere, an isolated threat for damaging winds and/or
large hail may persist near coastal northeast Florida. However,
watch issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Overall radar evolution early this evening suggests a
downward trend in the severe threat across most of Watch 118, as
outflow advances southeast and new updrafts quickly become elevated
above a stable surface layer. Moreover, with the band of convection
orienting parallel to deep-layer shear vectors, the opportunity for
even semi-discrete convection appears small. Nonetheless, a small
spatial window for a greater severe threat may exist across coastal
portions of Gulf and Franklin Counties, extending eastward to
southeast portions of the watch. These areas remain to the
south/east of the aforementioned outflow boundary, within an
environment characterized by MLCAPE of approximately 1000-1500 J/kg.
As such, a lingering threat for damaging winds may exist.
Additionally, a brief tornado cannot be ruled out, primarily across
coastal Gulf/Franklin, where surface flow remains slightly backed.
The ongoing watch may be extended in time for these locations if
convective trends warrant. As storms progress east towards the
northern Florida Peninsula, veered surface flow, lower dew points,
and diabatic cooling should accelerate the weakening trend.

Across coastal northeast Florida, convection continues to generate
along a sea breeze boundary, and further initiation may occur as
outflow from the northwest intersects this boundary. While dry
mid-level air and enhanced southwesterly flow near 700mb (i.e.,
large component perpendicular to the initiating boundary) will
preclude widespread sustained convection, a few stronger cells may
develop. Effective shear around 45-50 kt and MLCAPE upwards of 1500
J/kg will maintain updraft organization with any of these cells,
resulting in a localized threat for damaging winds and perhaps large
hail. The threat will be too small in both space and time for watch
issuance though.

..Picca.. 04/03/2017

----------------------------------------------------
Watches vigentes.
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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 118
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
130 PM EDT Mon Apr 3 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
North Florida
Coastal Waters

* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 130 PM until
800 PM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms will continue to track eastward
across the FL Panhandle this afternoon into a moist and unstable air
mass. Locally damaging wind gusts and an isolated tornado or two
are the primary threats.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles
east and west of a line from 25 miles north northeast of Tallahassee
FL to 30 miles east southeast of Apalachicola FL. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 116...WW 117...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 27025.

...Hart

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 119
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
205 PM EDT Mon Apr 3 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Eastern Georgia
Western and Central South Carolina

* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 205 PM until
900 PM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
Widespread damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...A line of severe thunderstorms over central Georgia will
track eastward across the watch, while isolated cell form out ahead.
All of this activity will pose a risk of damaging winds and a few
tornadoes.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles
east and west of a line from 10 miles east northeast of Spartanburg
SC to 50 miles south of Vidalia GA. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 117...WW 118...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 26035.

...Hart

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 120
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
435 PM EDT Mon Apr 3 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
South-central North Carolina
Eastern South Carolina
Coastal Waters

* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 435 PM until
1000 PM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to spread eastward across
South Carolina and North Carolina this afternoon, posing a risk of
locally damaging winds in the watch area.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles north northeast
of Southern Pines NC to 45 miles south southwest of Charleston SC.
For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 117...WW 118...WW 119...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
25030.

...Hart
Dome, dome, dome..The life is a dome

Avatar de Usuario
stormchaserAlberto
Mensajes: 5732
Registrado: Jue Feb 20, 2014 2:34 am
Ubicación: Río Tercero,Córdoba.

Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor stormchaserAlberto » Lun Abr 03, 2017 10:25 pm

Ultima actualizacion del dia.
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Estan por debajo del 2% las probabilidades de tornados.
% de vientos.
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% de granizo.
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Discusion:
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Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0757 PM CDT Mon Apr 03 2017

Valid 040100Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND NORTHERN AND EASTERN FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
Some threat for mainly strong to damaging wind exists mainly over
northern Florida, but overall threat should gradually diminish
through mid evening.

...North Florida...

Storms continue developing and training east across northern Florida
to the north of a southward-advancing outflow boundary. Occasional
semi-organized structures persist, and storms may pose a risk for
isolated damaging wind and marginally severe hail next couple hours
as they advance east. The outflow has surged south of the updrafts
which should limit a more robust severe threat. There may also be
some tendency for storms to weaken as they move deeper into the
stable outflow over northeast FL.

..Dial.. 04/04/2017

Próxima actualización: 06:00z
--------------------------------------
Ultima discusion a mesoescala.
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Mesoscale Discussion 0426
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0644 PM CDT Mon Apr 03 2017

Areas affected...Portions of western and northern AZ.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 032344Z - 040115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe/damaging gusts remain possible for another
couple hours from a band of thunderstorms moving across the
discussion area.

DISCUSSION...A band of mainly low-reflectivity convection with
embedded thunderstorms, which produced a measured severe gust at IGM
last hour, may maintain some damaging-wind risk through the FLG-PRC
corridor and points westward toward the Colorado River. This
activity is being supported by strong large-scale and deep-layer
lift, and related destabilization aloft. This ascent immediately
precedes a progressive/high-amplitude shortwave trough -- now
apparent in moisture-channel imagery from the UT/NV border area
southward down the lower Colorado River Valley. Modified model
forecast soundings suggest that a well-mixed boundary layer footed
by surface dew points of upper 20s to lower 30s F, as observed in
several pre-storm observation sites presently, will yield MLCAPE up
to about 250 J/kg, but less in most areas. The main limiting factor
will be lack of more robust buoyancy, and vulnerability of the
near-surface layer to rapid evening diabatic cooling in such dry
conditions. However, in the meantime, strong to severe gusts may
land at the surface as a result of
1. Downward transfer of momentum, generated within strengthening
mid-level winds, into
2. The well-mixed subcloud layer with DCAPE in the 200-500 J/kg
range.

..Edwards.. 04/03/2017
Dome, dome, dome..The life is a dome


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