Seguimiento general en EEUU

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stormchaserAlberto
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor stormchaserAlberto » Mié Abr 05, 2017 9:27 pm

Les dejo la reciente actualizacion del convective outlook. Se mantiene riesgo ALTO para el sudeste de Georgia y el oeste de South Carolina.
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% de tornados.
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% de vientos.
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% de granizo.
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Discusion.
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Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 PM CDT Wed Apr 05 2017

Valid 052000Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST GA
INTO CENTRAL SC...

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
HIGH FROM PORTIONS OF SC TO CENTRAL KY...

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
MODERATE FROM PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC TO PORTIONS
OF THE OH VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDWEST
SOUTHWARD TO THE GULF AND SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COASTS...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE EASTERN STATES...

...SUMMARY...
An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is underway from portions of the
Southeast States to the Ohio Valley region and eastward to the
Mid-Atlantic. Significant tornadoes will be possible, especially
from parts of southeastern Georgia into South Carolina, and also
from parts of eastern Alabama into south-central Kentucky. In
addition, very large hail, and damaging wind gusts are expected.

...Discussion on Outlook Adjustments...
The follow changes are made to the ongoing outlook:

1) The high risk (driven by 30-percent tornado probability) has been
focused along/east of ongoing linear segments with embedded
supercellular structures. Discrete cells ahead of this convection,
as well as the aforementioned embedded cells, will continue to pose
a risk for tornadoes, a few of which could be strong, considering a
warm/moist boundary-layer environment characterized by ample
effective storm-relative helicity. Indeed, as of 1945Z, a tornadic
debris signature has been observed in Laurens County, GA.

10-percent tornado probabilities have been contracted to points
near/south of the Ohio River. To the north, sufficient low-level
moisture return appears unlikely, suggesting a lower tornado
potential.

2) 45-percent wind probabilities are introduced across portions of
the Ohio Valley southward to far northern Tennessee. Surface dew
points have steadily risen into the 50s, with temperatures climbing
into the mid 70s to near 80. Convection should increase in coverage
this afternoon, with an initial supercellular mode eventually
transitioning to a more linear mode by late afternoon/early evening.
Strengthening low/mid-level southwesterly flow and steep 0-3km lapse
rates should favor several swaths of strong/damaging winds across
the upgraded area this evening.

3) The 45-percent hail/sig hail delineation has been removed from
portions of southern Alabama/Georgia and adjacent portions of the
extreme northern part of the Florida Panhandle. Ongoing convection
and cloud cover over this region cast doubt upon the potential for
vigorous convective re-development in its wake. Additionally,
veering low-level flow and weaker forcing for ascent (than points
farther north) also yield high uncertainty regarding the potential
for this re-development. As such, the associated moderate risk has
been removed from this area.

..Picca.. 04/05/2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Wed Apr 05 2017/

...Portions of the Southeast States to the Ohio Valley region and
the Mid-Atlantic...
Ongoing semi-discrete supercells and supercell clusters are
developing northeastward from parts of the central/eastern Gulf
Coast into southern GA. This activity resides well ahead of a
shortwave trough across the South-Central States and is evolving
within a broad, moistening open warm sector. With observational data
suggesting dewpoints in the lower 70s developing northward ahead of
this activity, supporting MLCAPE around 2000-3000 J/kg aided by
warm-sector insolation steepening low-level lapse rates beneath a
residual EML plume, and given the ongoing semi-discrete nature to
rotating updrafts developing as far south as the central Gulf Coast
vicinity, there is increasing confidence that long-track supercells
will be likely. Furthermore, with maturing midlevel mesocyclones
already evident, and low-level SRH around 200-300 m2/s2 aiding the
development of low-level mesocyclones amid the increasing low-level
theta-e, confidence has increased in higher coverage of tornado
potential -- including significant tornado potential -- across the
now-upgraded High Risk area. This activity will spread across the
High Risk area into the evening hours, as vertical wind profiles
further strengthen with the approaching midlevel trough and 700-mb
flow increasing over 50 kt. Observational trends and previous model
guidance are the primary supporters of this High Risk upgrade, as
opposed to the most recent model guidance which suggests a dry bias
in thermodynamic profiles -- Reference Mesoscale Discussion 440.
Outflow from ongoing convection from north GA to western SC serves
as a northern bound to the greatest severe potential.

Furthermore, confidence has increased that substantial severe risk
including tornado potential will develop through parts of the
Mid-Atlantic region into the overnight hours amid strong low-level
and deep shear, and a moistening boundary layer. As a result, severe
probabilities have been increased across parts of the Mid-Atlantic.
Also, severe storms are expected to spread across parts of the Gulf
Coast vicinity into the evening/overnight hours -- affecting parts
of north/central FL with tornado potential.

Farther to the west, a somewhat separate area of severe storm
development will be likely from parts of the Ohio Valley region to
the Tennessee Valley and vicinity in association with the primary
midlevel vorticity maximum and related low-level baroclinic zone
this afternoon. Strong low-level SRH in the destabilizing warm
sector -- enhanced near the surface low tracking from parts of IL
into OH -- will support organized, rotating updrafts. All severe
hazards -- including significant hail and tornadoes -- will be
possible from this afternoon into the evening.

Proxima actualizacion: 01:00z.
--------------------------------------
Ultimas discusiones a mesoescala.
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Mesoscale Discussion 0442
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0102 PM CDT Wed Apr 05 2017

Areas affected...Portions of central KY...middle
TN...northern/central AL...extreme northwest GA

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 051802Z - 052030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...The risk for significantly severe storms capable of
producing very large hail and tornadoes, along with damaging winds,
is expected to increase around and after 19Z. The issuance of a
Tornado Watch is expected soon.

DISCUSSION...Northward return of modest moisture continues in the
open warm sector of a deep cyclone -- from parts of the TN Valley
region northward to the lower and middle Ohio Valley region. The
leading edge of towering cumulus fields is noted from far northwest
AL into western parts of middle TN and western KY, near a
pre-frontal confluence axis trailing south-southeast of deep low
pressure over eastern MO. Despite the modest moisture, with surface
dewpoints in the 50s to the lower 60s (highest south), moderately
steep midlevel lapse rates around 7.5 C/km will support 500-1500
J/kg of MLCAPE.

Weak capping and strengthening deep ascent ahead of an approaching
midlevel trough will allow convection to gradually increase in the
vicinity of the confluence axis. This activity will mature as it
moves off the confluence axis and into the destabilizing warm
sector -- aided by an appreciable orthogonal component of deep flow
relative to the confluence axis. Strong deep shear and the
aforementioned midlevel lapse rates, encouraging enhanced
storm-scale upward accelerations, will support discrete and
semi-discrete cells capable of very large hail. Also, the
isallobaric response to the deepening surface low to the north will
maintain backed surface winds (pressure falls of 2-4 mb per 2 hours)
across the open warm sector, resulting in long/curved hodographs in
the low levels. Tornadoes are expected, and significant tornadoes
will be possible -- especially as supercells mature within a
corridor from central KY to central/northern AL later this afternoon
into the evening. Damaging wind gusts are also expected.

..Cohen/Hart.. 04/05/2017

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Mesoscale Discussion 0443
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0102 PM CDT Wed Apr 05 2017

Areas affected...Coastal SC/NC

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 051802Z - 051900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Tornado watch will likely be issued by 19z across portions
of coastal SC and NC.

DISCUSSION...Air mass is recovering across the coastal plain of SC
into coastal NC as temperatures rise through the 70s just inland
from the sea breeze. There is increasing concern that upstream
supercell activity over CAE CWA will spread east into ILM CWA just
south of synoptic front draped from Darlington county to Pender
county. It's not entirely clear how far inland the sea breeze will
advance but a narrow wedge of instability should prove receptive for
upstream activity to advance east with an attendant tornado,
hail/wind threat.

..Darrow/Hart.. 04/05/2017

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Mesoscale Discussion 0444
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 PM CDT Wed Apr 05 2017

Areas affected...Portions of central/southern/western
Ohio...northern Kentucky...central and southern Indiana...far
southeast Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 051859Z - 052130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The risk for severe thunderstorms with large hail,
damaging winds, and possibly tornadoes will spread northeastward and
east-northeastward across the region -- especially after 1930Z and
into the evening. Watch issuance will be likely for portions of the
Discussion area, though there is uncertainty regarding Watch type
(Severe Thunderstorm versus Tornado).

DISCUSSION...Deep surface low pressure (998 mb) analyzed between St.
Louis MO and Quincy IL will continue tracking east-northeastward
into a region of 2-hour pressure falls around 1-4 mb (maximized from
north-central IN into northern OH) during the next several hours. A
wavy warm-frontal zone, branching east of the low, will continue
developing northward into the region of ongoing pressure falls.
Lower to middle 50s surface dewpoints will spread northward -- as
far north as central IN to central/northern OH -- on the warm side
of the front into the evening.

Despite the limited boundary-layer moisture, relatively steep
midlevel lapse rates around 7.5-8.5 C/km -- sampled by the
Wilmington OH and Lincoln IL 18Z soundings -- will support MLCAPE
around 250-1000 J/kg. This should represent sufficient buoyancy for
ongoing developing cells in the warm sector closest to the surface
low in southern IL to intensify while tracking east-northeastward
and northeastward during the next several hours. The long hodograph
based on the Wilmington sounding suggests that ample convective
ventilation and deep shear will exist for sustained supercell
structures. Large hail -- possibly significantly severe -- will be
likely.

With effective SRH on the order of 200-300 m2/s2 -- highest values
expected near and just to the south of the surface low's track --
low-level mesocyclone development will be possible. Some tornado
potential will exist (aided by pre-existing vertical vorticity near
the surface low). However, the overall dearth of low-level moisture
will minimize low-level buoyancy, which could temper the strength of
low-level mesocyclones and tornado risk. Locally damaging wind gusts
may also occur, especially in association with amalgamating cold
pools.

..Cohen/Hart.. 04/05/2017

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Mesoscale Discussion 0445
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0212 PM CDT Wed Apr 05 2017

Areas affected...Southeast AL...FL Panhandle...GA...SC

Concerning...Tornado Watch 125...

Valid 051912Z - 052045Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 125 continues.

SUMMARY...Tornado threat continues across ww125.

DISCUSSION...Early-day MCS that developed over northern GA has
progressed into central SC where embedded supercells remain active
along the leading edge of thunderstorm complex. Low-level warm
advection should encourage this activity to propagate into coastal
portions of SC over the next few hours.

Farther southwest...greatest buoyancy currently extends along a
corridor from northern FL into southeast GA. Visible satellite
imagery supports this with numerous open-cell CU observed across the
warm sector where surface temperatures have warmed into the lower
80s. While an MCS appears to be slowly maturing over south-central
GA, wind fields remain strong and supportive of supercells and
tornadoes. Otherwise, large hail and damaging winds remain likely
with the most robust convection.

..Darrow.. 04/05/2017

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Mesoscale Discussion 0446
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0323 PM CDT Wed Apr 05 2017

Areas affected...Coastal SC/southern NC

Concerning...Tornado Watch 126...

Valid 052023Z - 052200Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 126 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe threat is increasing across ww126.

DISCUSSION...Numerous thunderstorm clusters, a few supercellular in
nature, have progressed across much of SC and will soon spread into
the central portions of ww126. Shear profiles support rotating
updrafts, and possible tornadoes, but damaging winds and large hail
should continue to be the primary threats. Buoyancy has gradually
increased across coastal SC and this air mass should spread into
southern parts of NC over the next few hours.

..Darrow.. 04/05/2017

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Mesoscale Discussion 0447
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0329 PM CDT Wed Apr 05 2017

Areas affected...Portions of southwest AL...southeast MS...western
FL Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 052029Z - 052300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for some potential of
severe-thunderstorm development this afternoon and early evening.
While not likely, it is possible that a watch could be issued.

DISCUSSION...Towering cumulus development continues along a weak
front analyzed from southeast MS into southeast LA. The air mass
east of this boundary is only modestly capped based on the 18Z
Slidell sounding, which indicates MLCAPE around 1500-2500 J/kg aided
by the inland extension of relatively rich Gulf moisture. Areas of
surface heating west of more widespread convection over GA into the
FL Panhandle will continue supporting destabilization, while the
southern extent of a shortwave trough approaches from the west.
Stronger deep ascent will reside well to the north of the Discussion
area, and low-level convergence remains weak per observational data.
These factors cast considerable doubt regarding the sustenance of
deep convection. Regardless, with 50-60 kt of effective shear
conditionally supporting organized convective structures/supercells,
a conditional severe risk could exist into the early evening.
However, confidence in sufficient severe coverage is quite limited
at present.

..Cohen/Hart.. 04/05/2017

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Mesoscale Discussion 0448
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0351 PM CDT Wed Apr 05 2017

Areas affected...Portions of KY...TN...AL...GA

Concerning...Tornado Watch 127...

Valid 052051Z - 052215Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 127 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe-thunderstorm and tornado risks continue across
remaining-valid portions Tornado Watch 127.

DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms continue developing along a
north-south corridor from west-central KY into central AL. This
convection is already exhibiting supercellular characteristics, and
will continue tracking eastward and northeastward during the next
several hours, capable of producing very large hail, damaging winds,
and tornadoes.

Some strong-tornado potential during the next few hours will extend
from parts of central AL to middle TN and points eastward. This is
where the influx of richest boundary-layer moisture exists (surface
dewpoints into the lower/middle 60s) supporting around 1500-2500
J/kg per modifications to the 17Z Birmingham sounding -- amid
effective SRH increasing to 200-400 m2/s2. This activity could
eventually reach into parts of western GA where air-mass recovery
continues.

..Cohen.. 04/05/2017

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Mesoscale Discussion 0449
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0447 PM CDT Wed Apr 05 2017

Areas affected...Portions of central/southwest OH...central/southern
IN...southeast IL

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 128...

Valid 052147Z - 052315Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 128
continues.

SUMMARY...The risk for severe storms continues across Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 128.

DISCUSSION...Scattered convective cells continue developing from
parts of southeast IL through southern IN and southwest OH. This
activity lies near and south of a warm front, where dewpoints in the
lower 50s are supporting MLCAPE around 250-500 J/kg (largely driven
by cold temperatures aloft given the lack of low-level moisture). As
forcing for ascent near and ahead of the low -- reflected by 2-hour
pressure falls around 3-4 mb -- continues overlapping with
sufficient buoyancy, storms should develop northeastward and
eastward through the evening. Large hail and locally damaging wind
gusts will remain possible with the most intense storms. A tornado
could also occur near the warm front in conjunction with effective
SRH around 200-300 m2/s2 -- especially ahead of the surface low in
the presence of pre-existing vertical vorticity. However, the lack
of more appreciable moisture, and related minimal low-level
buoyancy, will tend to restrict the tornado risk.

..Cohen.. 04/05/2017

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Mesoscale Discussion 0450
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0529 PM CDT Wed Apr 05 2017

Areas affected...southeast Georgia...coastal south Carolina and
extreme northern Florida

Concerning...Tornado Watch 125...126...

Valid 052229Z - 052330Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 125, 126 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for tornadoes, including strong tornadoes,
large hail and damaging wind will persist through 03Z. Tornado
watches 125 and 126 are scheduled to expire at 00Z. However, either
a portion of tornado watch 125 can be locally extended or a new
watch might be issued across south GA for the early evening severe
threat.

DISCUSSION...Line of storms with embedded supercells persist from
coastal SC through southern GA. The line will continue east next few
hours. Tendency has been for the low-level winds to veer with time
resulting in smaller but sufficient 0-1 km hodographs for low-level
mesocyclones and tornadoes as storms move through the moist and
moderately unstable warm sector. Local VWP data indicate 200-250
m2/s2 storm relative helicity based on observed storm motions across
south GA along with 67 kt 0-6 km shear. This environment will
continue to support organized structures including supercells,
bowing segments and embedded mesovortices as storms develop east
through early evening.

..Dial.. 04/05/2017

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Mesoscale Discussion 0451
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0619 PM CDT Wed Apr 05 2017

Areas affected...Southern and central Ohio...western West
Virginia...and far eastern Kentucky

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 052319Z - 060145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Areas downstream of WW 128 are being monitored for
convective potential after about 01Z. A new severe thunderstorm
watch issuance is being considered.

DISCUSSION...A broken band of strong to severe convection continues
across southwestern Ohio and central Kentucky. These storms were in
a strongly sheared, weakly to moderately unstable environment and
have a history of numerous reports of large hail, wind damage, and
few tornadoes. These storms were moving rapidly northeastward
(45-60 knots) and should reach eastern portions of WW 128 around
00-01Z.

Considerable uncertainty exists regarding the extent of the severe
threat downstream of these areas. Although surface temperatures
have warmed into the upper 70s in portions of the discussion area,
mid-40s dewpoints are contributing to negligible buoyancy
unsupportive of convection. An increasing low-level jet across the
region may foster some moist advection in the region, although
models/observations only support low- to mid-50s dewpoints
developing in the region after dark, supporting very modest
instability. Any convection that can persist in this weakly
unstable environment may foster a severe threat owing to very strong
mid/upper flow and convection fostering downward transport of that
momentum to the surface, although the persistence of this convection
with time into the evening remains in doubt. Convective trends
will be monitored.

..Cook/Guyer.. 04/05/2017

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Mesoscale Discussion 0452
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0657 PM CDT Wed Apr 05 2017

Areas affected...Central and eastern Kentucky...central and eastern
Tennessee...eastern Alabama...and northwestern Georgia

Concerning...Tornado Watch 127...

Valid 052357Z - 060045Z

CORRECTED FOR TEXT

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 127 continues.

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms capable of all severe modes
continue across the region at this time.

DISCUSSION...The severe weather threat continues across portions of
WW 127 just ahead of a surface trough/dryline that extends from
central Kentucky southward to near Selma, Alabama. Storms just
ahead of this trough have developed into broken bands with
occasional mesocyclones and bow echoes across central Kentucky. The
presence of backed low-level flow across this region and around 1000
J/kg MUCAPE has fostered updraft rotation in a few of the more
isolated cells.

Farther south, more cellular convection has developed amidst a
weakly capped, moderately unstable airmass. A few mesocyclones have
developed with the stronger storms, although somewhat veered flow in
Alabama has fostered splitting supercells and have perhaps hindered
the tornado threat there somewhat. Furthermore, low-level backed
flow in portions of far eastern Alabama and northern Georgia has
occurred amidst cooler surface temperatures as the region remains
influenced by an ongoing MCS farther east across South Carolina.
Thus far, storms have not been able organize stronger low-level
mesocyclogenesis as a result of the more backed low-level flow,
likely owing to cellular convection becoming quickly elevated once
the move into the rain-cooled airmass over Georgia/far eastern
Alabama. The tornado potential still remains with this activity,
especially as cells cross into this rain-cooled airmass. Damaging
wind gusts and especially large hail remain likely with this
activity.

With time, storms across KY/TN portions will reach the eastern
extent of WW 127 within the next 1-2 hours. The eastern extent of
the severe threat is uncertain with this activity owing to a more
stable downstream airmass.

..Cook/Guyer.. 04/05/2017

---------------------------------------------
Ultimos watch.
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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 125
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southeast Alabama
Florida Panhandle
Central and Southwest Georgia
Western South Carolina

* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 1255 PM
until 800 PM EDT.

..THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
* Primary threats include...
Numerous tornadoes expected with a few intense tornadoes likely
Widespread large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter likely
Widespread damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 75 mph possible

SUMMARY...Intense supercell thunderstorms are expected to develop
this afternoon over the watch area, posing a risk of strong
tornadoes. Large hail and damaging winds are possible as well.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles
north and south of a line from 20 miles west southwest of Dothan AL
to 45 miles east of Augusta GA. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 124...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 24035.

...Hart

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 127
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
150 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Northern and East-Central Alabama
Northwest Georgia
Southeast Indiana
Central Kentucky
Middle Tennessee

* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 150 PM
until 900 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
Widespread large hail likely with isolated very large hail
events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible
Widespread damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will form along a cold front moving across
the watch area this afternoon, with some storms becoming supercells.
Tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds will become a concern
through the afternoon and early evening.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles
east and west of a line from 40 miles northeast of Louisville KY to
10 miles south southeast of Selma AL. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU7).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 125...WW 126...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
storm motion vector 25035.

...Hart

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 128
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
410 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southeast Illinois
Southern and Central Indiana
Northern Kentucky
Southwest Ohio

* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 410 PM
until 900 PM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 2 inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to form across the watch area
through the afternoon, with the risk of large hail and damaging
winds in the more intense storms. An isolated tornado or two is
also possible.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles southwest of
Terre Haute IN to 65 miles east southeast of Dayton OH. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 125...WW 126...WW 127...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
24035.

...Hart
Dome, dome, dome..The life is a dome

Avatar de Usuario
stormchaserAlberto
Mensajes: 6132
Registrado: Jue Feb 20, 2014 2:34 am
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor stormchaserAlberto » Mié Abr 05, 2017 11:43 pm

Ultima actualizacion del convective outlook de hoy.
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% de tornados.
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Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0819 PM CDT Wed Apr 05 2017

Valid 060100Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF
EASTERN TENNESSEE...FAR NORTHEAST ALABAMA...AND NORTHERN GEORGIA...

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHERN OHIO TO PARTS OF EASTERN ALABAMA TO THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM OHIO TO THE
SOUTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA SOUTH TO PART OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AND SOUTH FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms with all severe hazards remain possible through this
evening across from parts of southern Ohio through eastern Kentucky
and Tennessee to much of eastern Alabama. A severe weather threat
will continue this evening across coastal southern South Carolina
into southern Georgia with all severe hazards. Two areas of strong
to severe storms are expected to develop later tonight into early
Thursday morning, with one being in Virginia to parts of the
Carolinas, and the second across northern into central Florida.

...Synopsis...
A synoptic midlevel trough will move east of the mid MS Valley this
evening with a closed low forming overnight with this cyclone
reaching IN/western OH and southern Lower MI by 12Z. Meanwhile, the
southern extent of this trough will take on a negative tilt as a
fast-moving shortwave trough tracks from the lower MS Valley to the
southern Appalachians and then into the Carolinas around daybreak.
Primary surface low will move into northern OH this forecast period.
A cold front was analyzed early this evening extending from
southwest OH through eastern TN and eastern AL and into the Gulf of
Mexico off the western FL Panhandle. This front will advance east
overnight and should extend from the OH/PA border to western or
central VA to central NC, eastern SC into northern FL.

...Southern Mid-Atlantic States into parts of the Carolinas...
Although surface dew points are currently in the upper 40s across
northern and central VA to around 60 in central NC, strengthening
south-southwesterly low-level winds across the Carolinas into VA
should allow for moistening with poleward extent through tonight to
early Thursday morning. This is expected to occur in the wake of
the ongoing bands of storms now moving east off the coasts of the
Carolinas and through southern GA. This moistening combined with
midlevel lapse rates steepening with the approach of the
negatively-tilting midlevel trough should result in mucape up to
1000 J/kg. Strong 500-mb 12-hr height falls of 100-180 meters
tonight into VA and the Carolinas is expected to support new
thunderstorm development across western/central VA into central NC
and possibly northern SC. Strengthening deep-layer and low-level
shear will support all severe hazards later tonight across this
region.

...Upper OH/TN Valleys to the Southeast States...
The overall severe weather threat will continue to diminish from
north-south this evening from southern OH into eastern TN, as the
instability diminishes from north-south and activity moves into a
more stable environment located across WV to northeast TN.
Meanwhile, the greatest potential for a continued severe-weather
threat will all severe hazards appears to be located across
east-central AL and northern GA where storms have remained more
discrete, and closer to the stronger instability. There exists some
uncertainty with destabilization later this evening into the
overnight across northeast GA into western SC. However, an increase
in forcing for ascent with approach of the lower MS Valley shortwave
trough suggests storms may continue to develop with eastward extent,
with all severe hazards possible as deep-layer and low-level shear
strengthens.

...Northern and central FL...
Models continue to suggest thunderstorms develop later tonight into
early Thursday across parts of northern into central FL as 30-60
meter 12-hr 500-mb height falls occur across these parts of FL.
Some increase in instability and strengthening deep-layer and
low-level shear suggest storms could become severe.

..Peters.. 04/06/2017

Proxima actualizacion: 06:00z.
---------------------------------------
Para mañana.
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Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 PM CDT Wed Apr 05 2017

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN NC
AND EASTERN VA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NC
NORTHWARD TO SOUTHERN NJ...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe storms are expected across parts of the
Mid-Atlantic region Thursday, primarily during the morning and early
afternoon hours. The potential exists for tornadoes and a few swaths
of damaging winds during this time frame.

...Synopsis...
A powerful mid/upper trough will advance towards the East Coast
Thursday, as a vigorous impulse rotates around its periphery from
the southern Appalachians towards southern New England by Thursday
night. Concurrently, a closed low at the center of the trough will
continue to deepen as it pushes east across the lower Great Lakes
region. The surface response will feature one low translate from
northern Ohio east/northeastward to western New York, while another
develops/lifts from northern Virginia into eastern Pennsylvania. A
cold front trailing to its south will surge eastward towards the
Atlantic coast through the day.

...Mid-Atlantic...
To the east of the aforementioned low and attendant surface front,
strong southerly low-level flow will transport surface dew points in
the low/mid 60s northward across coastal NC and into southeastern
Virginia. With what remains of a remnant EML plume pushing over the
region, this uptick in low-level moisture (as well as northward
warm-air advection) should give rise to approximately 1000-2000 J/kg
of MLCAPE by morning. While considerable uncertainty exists with
ongoing convection expected across the region at the beginning of
the period, the crossover of ample effective shear and favorable
buoyancy over this area should contribute to an organized severe
threat within a mixture of storm modes. Ahead of the composite cold
front/outflow boundary, an initial opportunity exists for
semi-discrete convection organizing along confluent boundaries
within the warm sector. Strong low-level shear and a moist boundary
layer suggest tornadoes will be possible with any of these cells.
The ongoing enhanced risk was expanded southward to the NC coast to
account for this potential. Through the morning, however, increasing
forcing for ascent and a veer-back-veer wind profile with height may
force more linear modes, favorable for damaging wind gusts and
perhaps a few embedded circulations. Considering the strength of
surface-to-850mb flow, a few swaths of damaging wind gusts may be
possible with these developing linear segments.

No significant changes are made to the ongoing northern extent of
the severe risk categories. Some uncertainty remains with regards to
the depth of the stable layer (and resultant ability of stronger
downdrafts to reach the surface with sufficient momentum) along the
northern fringes of the slight/marginal risks across the Delmarva
and coastal New Jersey. However, considering the strong kinematic
fields and potential for sufficient warming of the near-surface
stable layer, the strong wind threat appears considerable enough to
maintain the ongoing categories.

..Picca.. 04/05/2017

------------------------------------------
Watch vigente.
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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 129
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
955 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Far eastern Alabama
Western and central Georgia

* Effective this Wednesday night and Thursday morning from 955 PM
until 200 AM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Storms should continue to increase near an
eastward-accelerating cold front as it moves from Alabama into
Georgia. Especially given that low-level shear will be increasing
this evening, a tornado or two will be possible aside from what
should be a more prevalent risk for damaging winds and some severe
hail.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles
east and west of a line from 45 miles east northeast of Atlanta GA
to 30 miles east southeast of Troy AL. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU9).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 127...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 24035.

...Guyer
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stormchaserAlberto
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor stormchaserAlberto » Jue Abr 06, 2017 9:28 am

Y arranco la joda por el este de los Estados Unidos.
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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 132
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
705 AM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Parts of central and eastern North Carolina
Southeastern Virginia
Coastal Waters

* Effective this Thursday morning and afternoon from 705 AM until
100 PM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Some increase in thunderstorm coverage/intensity is
expected this morning as a strong storm system pivots northeastward
over North Carolina and Virginia. Damaging winds should be the main
risk with a broken band of storms, though some supercell structures
will be possible with an attendant risk for isolated large hail and
a couple of tornadoes.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles
east and west of a line from 45 miles north northeast of Richmond VA
to 25 miles east of Fayetteville NC. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean
storm motion vector 21050.

...Thompson

------------------------------
Convective outlook de esta madrugada.
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Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0109 AM CDT Thu Apr 06 2017

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...EASTERN VIRGINIA INTO SOUTHERN MARYLAND
AND THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
ENHANCED RISK FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...CENTRAL MARYLAND TO FAR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
SLIGHT RISK FROM NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
TO FAR SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe storms are expected across parts of the
Mid-Atlantic States, primarily during the morning and early
afternoon hours. The potential exists for tornadoes and a few
swaths of damaging winds during this time frame. A lingering
severe-weather threat will be possible across central Florida during
the morning and may continue into the early afternoon.

...Synopsis...
A powerful mid/upper trough will advance towards the East Coast this
forecast period, as a vigorous impulse rotates around its periphery
from the southern Appalachians towards the Mid-Atlantic States by
early afternoon, and then northward through New England tonight.
Concurrently, a closed low at the center of the trough will deepen
as it moves across the lower Great Lakes region. The synoptic
surface low is expected to track from northern OH to northern NY,
while secondary surface cyclogenesis should be occurring at the
start of the forecast period in northwest VA. Surface response to
very strong 12-hour 500-mb height falls of 200-260 meters through
18Z will result in strong deepening of the northwest VA low as it
tracks into Washington D.C./central MD by 18-19Z, and then into
eastern PA by mid-late afternoon. A cold front trailing to the
south will surge eastward and should move off the Mid-Atlantic coast
by mid afternoon, while the southern advances south across the
Florida Peninsula.

...Mid-Atlantic States to eastern NC...
To the east of the aforementioned deepening secondary surface low
and attendant cold front, strong southerly low-level winds will be
in the process of transporting moisture poleward, with surface dew
points in the lower 60s reaching eastern VA to central MD this
morning and across the southern Delmarva Peninsula by early
afternoon. The presence of steep midlevel lapse rates spreading
across the moisture return into this region through 18Z should
result in a moderately unstable warm sector with MUCAPE of 1000-1500
J/kg.

Thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z today from western VA through
central NC to eastern SC. Given the expected degree of
destabilization ahead of the cold front combined with strong
effective bulk shear and strong forcing for ascent with the midlevel
trough and impulse, thunderstorms should increase in coverage and
intensity through the morning. Low-level hodograph curvature will
support a tornado threat with any discrete cells ahead of the cold
front. Meanwhile, increasing forcing for ascent and a somewhat
veer-back-veer vertical wind profile suggests the potential for a
linear mode with damaging winds spreading across the enhanced risk
area this morning into the early afternoon. This outlook issuance
has expanded the higher severe wind probabilities with some
confidence for significant winds into southern MD and the southern
Delmarva Peninsula, while a similar threat will occur southward into
southeast VA and northeast NC. A tornado threat will be possible
within the linear structure, given the formation of embedded
circulations. The overall severe-weather threat should diminish by
mid afternoon as the cold front moves off the Mid-Atlantic coast. A
few elevated storms producing mainly isolated hail will be possible
into southeast PA and NJ.

...Central Florida...
Strong to severe storms should be ongoing at the beginning of the
forecast period across central FL, within a moderately unstable and
strongly sheared environment. A weak lobe of vorticity is expected
to be moving across central FL at 12Z, and should weaken further as
it moves east of the Peninsula by early afternoon. Veered low-level
winds in the warm sector should be related to reduced convergence in
vicinity of the cold front by early afternoon. Until that time,
moderate instability and strong deep-layer and low-level shear this
morning suggest a lingering severe-weather threat will be possible
for the first 2-4 hours of the forecast period. This outlook has
introduced a marginal severe risk for isolated strong winds and
perhaps a tornado.

..Peters/Cook.. 04/06/2017

Se actualiza nuevamente a las 13:00z.
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor stormchaserAlberto » Jue Abr 06, 2017 12:04 pm

Actualizacion del convective outlook.
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% de tornados.
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Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0743 AM CDT Thu Apr 06 2017

Valid 061300Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDDAY
TO EARLY AFTERNOON FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
ENHANCED RISK AREA...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms with damaging winds, large hail, and a
couple of tornadoes will be possible through about midday to early
afternoon across the Mid-Atlantic. A marginal wind and hail risk
will diminish slowly this morning across central Florida.

...Synopsis...
Secondary cyclogenesis is underway near the Blue Ridge in northwest
VA, where 3-6 mb pressure falls per two hours have been observed in
advance of a negative tilt shortwave trough accelerating
northeastward over the southern Appalachians. The northwest VA
cyclone will deepen and move north-northeastward to eastern PA by
early-mid afternoon. A trailing cold front will move off the NC
coast by 18z, and the remaining warm sector near the Delmarva will
be pinched off by 21z.

...Mid-Atlantic region through early afternoon...
Overnight convection has lingered near the NC coast, and anvil
cirrus has overspread eastern NC and southeastern VA this morning.
Low-level moisture inflow across eastern NC/VA has been
disrupted/reduced by this convection, and the clouds will likely
slow surface heating prior to frontal passage. However, strong
forcing for ascent and modest moisture recovery ahead of the front
will support a severe-storm risk until the cold front moves offshore
this afternoon. Very strong deep-layer shear and conditionally
unstable midlevel lapse rates will support a risk for damaging winds
and marginally severe hail with embedded cells/line segments, and an
isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out with fast-moving cells.

...Central FL this morning...
A pre-frontal band of thunderstorms moving across central FL this
morning is expected to weaken slowly as the strong midlevel
shortwave trough passes well to the north of this area. Deep-layer
shear and buoyancy will be sufficient for a marginal damaging wind
risk this morning, prior to the storms weakening.

..Thompson/Cohen.. 04/06/2017

Se actualiza nuevamente a las 16:30z.
---------------------------------------------
Ultimas discusiones a mesoescala.
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Mesoscale Discussion 0456
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0154 AM CDT Thu Apr 06 2017

Areas affected...Central portions of North and South Carolina into
east central Georgia

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 130...

Valid 060654Z - 060830Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 130
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe risk has become marginal/isolated at best across
the existing portions of WW 130.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows remnant convection diminishing
rapidly across North Carolina, while a narrow band of showers and
storms persists along the immediate cold front from AIK (Aiken, SC)
south-southwest across east central Georgia.

Very strong deep-layer flow remains across the entire region,
however thermodynamic deficiencies are evident, particularly within
the boundary layer where relatively cool/stable air is resulting in
largely -- if not entirely -- elevated storms. As a result, hail
risk has been minimal, and stronger wind gusts have been hindered
from penetrating to the surface across the region over the past 1-2
hours. While a somewhat more moist boundary layer is evident ahead
of the front across southeast GA and vicinity, the airmass has been
stabilized near the coast by the ongoing pre-frontal band of storms.
This -- as well as the much more stable air farther north across
the eastern Carolinas -- makes downstream WW issuance rather
unlikely in the next few hours.

..Goss.. 04/06/2017

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Mesoscale Discussion 0457
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0212 AM CDT Thu Apr 06 2017

Areas affected...Southeast Georgia into northern and central Florida

Concerning...Tornado Watch 131...

Valid 060712Z - 060915Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 131 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe/isolated tornado risk persist across WW 131.

DISCUSSION...A broken band of vigorous storms along a pre-frontal
confluence axis continues moving east across northern Florida at
this time, having now moved off the southeast Georgia coast. With a
moist/amply unstable airmass in place along with a deep-layer wind
field more than sufficient for updraft rotation, severe risk
continues -- including the potential for a brief tornado.

West of the ongoing storms, flow has veered markedly with time,
reducing convergence along the advancing front. Still, with a
moist/unstable environment in place in the wake of earlier storms,
severe potential remains non-zero across northwestern portions of
the Florida Peninsula, given at least some possibility of initiation
of a few storms along the immediate cold front.

Finally, radar/lightning loops show storms extending southwestward
off the Florida west coast and well into the eastern Gulf. Eastward
advance of these storms could eventually result in an uptick in
severe risk near and south of the Tampa Bay area in the 10-11Z time
frame.

..Goss.. 04/06/2017

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Mesoscale Discussion 0458
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0459 AM CDT Thu Apr 06 2017

Areas affected...Parts of central and eastern North Carolina into
central and eastern Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 060959Z - 061130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Severe risk will gradually increase across central and
eastern portions of North Carolina and Virginia over the next few
hours, which may require watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows some increase in both coverage
and intensity of convection across central North Carolina. This is
occurring in response to strengthening ascent pivoting
north-northeastward across the Carolinas and Virginia as mid-level
short-wave troughing has rounded the base of the Midwestern low and
is now shifting rapidly toward the mid-Atlantic region.

The boundary-layer airmass across the NC/VA area remains
cool/saturated and slightly stable, with temperatures and dewpoints
in the upper 50s to low 60s. However, with focused ascent near and
just ahead of the surface front yielding gradual cooling aloft,
steady weakening of the low-level inversion is expected to result in
near moist-adiabatic low-level profiles -- i.e. sufficient for
storms to eventually become at least near surface-based. Above the
lower troposphere, mid-level cooling continues to gradually steepen
lapse rates, with the overall effect trending toward a thermodynamic
environment sufficient for vigorous storms.

Presuming storms can become near surface-based, severe risk --
including potential for a tornado or two -- will become increasingly
likely, as currently observed southeasterly surface winds veer and
increase rapidly with height, supportive of updraft rotation.
While the degree of risk remains a bit conditional/uncertain due to
the currently stable boundary layer, risk appears great enough to
warrant consideration of watch issuance over the next 1-2 hours.

..Goss.. 04/06/2017

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Mesoscale Discussion 0459
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0510 AM CDT Thu Apr 06 2017

Areas affected...Central Florida

Concerning...Tornado Watch 131...

Valid 061010Z - 061215Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 131 continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated severe risk continues in and near remaining
portions of the WW.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar/satellite imagery continues to reveal a
slow decrease in convective intensity across central Florida and
immediately offshore. With the strongest ascent associated with the
upper system lifting quickly northeastward/away from the region,
expect this trend to continue over the next couple of hours. While
both the thermodynamic and kinematic environment remain supportive
of severe risk with any stronger storm, it currently appears
unlikely that any appreciable increase in convective coverage will
occur through the scheduled 12z expiration of the watch.

..Goss.. 04/06/2017

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Mesoscale Discussion 0460
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0938 AM CDT Thu Apr 06 2017

Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Tornado Watch 132...

Valid 061438Z - 061545Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 132 continues.

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms may continue to pose a threat for a few
strong/damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado through late
morning.

DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have organized along a
pre-frontal trough this morning, aided by strong forcing for ascent
from an impulse advancing across the Carolinas presently. Surface
dew points ahead of the line have risen into the upper 50s and lower
60s, with resultant MLCAPE values upwards of 500 J/kg, offering some
vigor to more organized updrafts. Reflectivity data this morning
suggest a mixture of semi-discrete, small linear, and cluster modes.
Regional 12Z soundings depict a veer-back-veer wind profile with
height, supporting this somewhat disorganized evolution.
Additionally, elongated reflectivity structures likely imply a
shear/buoyancy imbalance at present. Nonetheless, modest warm/moist
advection northward may yield sufficient buoyancy for a few stronger
updrafts through late morning. Strong low/mid-level flow (and
related shear) will favor strong/damaging wind gusts and perhaps a
brief tornado in any of these cells.

Convection is also developing closer to the surface front over
south-central Virginia. While the tornado threat should be minimal
here due to veered low-level flow and falling dew points, shallow
but sufficient buoyancy and ample effective shear may foster a
threat for gusty winds and small hail as cells develop eastward.

..Picca.. 04/06/2017
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stormchaserAlberto
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor stormchaserAlberto » Jue Abr 06, 2017 1:24 pm

Nueva actualizacion del convective outlook.
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% de tornados.
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% de vientos.
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Discusion:
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Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1112 AM CDT Thu Apr 06 2017

Valid 061630Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
EASTERN NC/VA/MD INTO DE/NJ...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTH FL...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms with damaging winds, hail, and perhaps a
tornado will be possible through early afternoon across the
Mid-Atlantic into southern New England. A marginal wind risk will
diminish slowly this morning across central Florida.

...Mid Atlantic Region...
An intense negatively-tilted shortwave trough over the Carolinas
will lift rapidly northward today, resulting in strong upper forcing
for vertical motion to overspread the Mid-Atlantic region into New
England. Thunderstorms have been ongoing this morning along/ahead
of the primary cold front moving across NC/VA, but overall storm
intensities have been modest. Dense clouds ahead of the convection
and limited time for further moisture advection will likely limit
the severe threat. Nevertheless, the approach of the upper trough
and intense wind fields aloft suggest a continued risk of locally
damaging winds or perhaps a tornado until the storms move across the
Chesapeake Bay and into increasingly stable surface conditions.

...Southern New England...
As the convection spreads northeastward into southern New England,
model forecast soundings suggest a substantial low-level inversion
will be maintained over parts of MA/RI/CT. However, strong ascent
and cool temperatures aloft will result in a pocket of elevated CAPE
sufficient to warrant a marginal risk of hail in the strongest
cells.

...FL...
Thunderstorms continue to track slowly southeastward across the
southern FL Peninsula. Most model guidance suggests the storms will
slowly weaken through the day. However, ample low level moisture
and moderate CAPE values indicate some conditional risk of gusty
winds in the strongest cells.

..Hart/Cohen.. 04/06/2017

Se actualiza nuevamente a las 20:00z.
Dome, dome, dome..The life is a dome

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stormchaserAlberto
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor stormchaserAlberto » Jue Abr 06, 2017 1:54 pm

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Mesoscale Discussion 0461
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1118 AM CDT Thu Apr 06 2017

Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 061618Z - 061715Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated instances of damaging winds may occur through mid
afternoon from Virginia northward to southern New Jersey. Watch
issuance may be possible if convective trends warrant.

DISCUSSION...Several small bowing segments have organized over
northern/eastern Virginia late this morning/early this afternoon, on
the nose of robust DCVA associated with a sharp impulse currently
lifting north into Virginia. In response, a surface cyclone appears
to be organizing over far northern Virginia, with a sharpening
trough extending to its south/southeast. Enhanced surface
convergence (along this trough, as well as the front to its west)
and larger-scale ascent over the region will likely maintain pockets
of strong convection lifting northeast from Virginia towards
southeastern Pennsylvania and southern New Jersey this afternoon.
The near-surface thermal profile becomes considerably more stable
with northeastward extent, but considering the strength of forcing
for ascent, an isolated damaging-wind risk may extend into southern
New Jersey through the afternoon hours, especially where weak
diurnal heating occurs. However, due to the expected disorganized
nature of the threat, watch issuance is not currently anticipated.
Surface/radar observations will be monitored for a more organized
uptick in the damaging wind threat, though.

..Picca/Hart.. 04/06/2017

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 133
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
District Of Columbia
Delaware
Eastern Maryland
Southern New Jersey
Southeast Pennsylvania
Northern Virginia
Coastal Waters

* Effective this Thursday afternoon from 1245 PM until 500 PM
EDT.

* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Scattered fast-moving thunderstorms will track
northeastward across the region this afternoon, posing a risk of
locally damaging wind gusts.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45
statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles west southwest
of Washington DC to 25 miles north of Atlantic City NJ. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 132...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector
22040.

...Hart
Dome, dome, dome..The life is a dome

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Ezequiel95
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor Ezequiel95 » Jue Abr 06, 2017 3:00 pm

No te acordás de algún evento que haya sido con el nivel HIGH (Rosa)?

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stormchaserAlberto
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor stormchaserAlberto » Jue Abr 06, 2017 3:20 pm

Ezequiel95 escribió:No te acordás de algún evento que haya sido con el nivel HIGH (Rosa)?

Si. Ayer, el domingo y hay otro a principio de año.
Dome, dome, dome..The life is a dome

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lucas de zarate
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor lucas de zarate » Mié Abr 12, 2017 3:20 am

No hubo mas nada? O se canso Roberto :p

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stormchaserAlberto
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor stormchaserAlberto » Mié Abr 12, 2017 7:39 am

lucas de zarate escribió:No hubo mas nada? O se canso Roberto :p

A ver. Dije siempre que pueda, lo voy a hacer. No me las estoy rascando. Ademas, siempre ha sido marginal el riesgo en estos dias.
Dome, dome, dome..The life is a dome


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