Seguimiento general en EEUU

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mateix
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor mateix » Mié Dic 06, 2017 10:29 pm

Ale de Castelar escribió:De ciencia ficcion

Link al tweet



Eso es muy cerca de Hollywood, epicentro de LA.

Locura :shock:

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Stormy
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor Stormy » Jue Dic 07, 2017 10:08 pm

Link al tweet
mateix escribió:pamperos que hacen disparar la T...

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stormchaserAlberto
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor stormchaserAlberto » Vie Dic 08, 2017 1:27 am

Está nevando en Houston ahora :shock: . Así se ven los radares del sur desde la página de jotape. Bastantes bandas brillantes se ven entre el norte de México, sur de Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi y el sur de Arkansas. Dado a que el suelo está bastante caliente, no se logra acumular mucho. También hay algo de convección sobre el Golfo y bastante cerca de Pensacola.
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Muy cerca de ver algunos copos Nueva Orleans. Está nevando bastante entre el centro y el norte de Alabama y por Mississippi.
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Corpus Christi, bien pegado al Golfo. Calcularon 4 pulgadas desde la estación oficial del NWS.
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Al borde de la nieve en South Padre Island, sobre el Golfo, al extremo sudeste de Texas.
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--------------------------------------------------------
Otra discusión más por las nevadas.
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Mesoscale Discussion 1788
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1106 AM CST Fri Dec 08 2017

Areas affected...Southern Appalachians Region

Concerning...Heavy snow

Valid 081706Z - 082100Z

SUMMARY...Snow rates may approach 1" per hour across parts of the
southern Appalachians this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Heavier band of precip is beginning to spread across
northern GA into the southern Appalachian region where temperatures
are below freezing, or are expected to wet-bulb to near freezing.
Forecast soundings suggest the rain/snow line will hold across
extreme northwest SC but possibly sag a bit south into southern VA
over the next few hours due to some wet-bulb cooling. Along the
southern fringe of the heavier snow band a brief mixture of sleet is
possible but overall the highlighted region should experience snow
rates approaching 1" per hour into the mid afternoon hours,
especially over the higher terrain.

..Darrow.. 12/08/2017
Dome, dome, dome..The life is a dome

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Ernest
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor Ernest » Vie Dic 08, 2017 1:00 pm

Tremendo!
Qué genialidad pasar de huracanes a nieve con acumulación en pocos meses.
Did you want to talk about the weather, or were you just making chitchat?

Mi página en facebook: MeteoMundo

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stormchaserAlberto
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor stormchaserAlberto » Vie Dic 08, 2017 1:25 pm

Riesgo leve a marginal de tiempo severo en La Florida. Hay de todo por el sur de los Estados Unidos. Hay hasta probabilidades de tornados.
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% de tornados.
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Vientos dañinos.
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Discusión. Hay un frente cálido perdido por ahí y una onda corta también.
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Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0654 AM CST Fri Dec 08 2017

Valid 081300Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
WESTERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IMMEDIATELY
SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK...

...SUMMARY...
Some severe thunderstorms associated with wind damage and a tornado
threat are expected across parts of the Florida Peninsula this
evening and overnight.

...Synopsis...
In mid/upper levels, the large-scale pattern will be dominated by a
high-amplitude ridge over western North America, with mean troughing
from the Canadian Arctic across the Great Lakes to the Gulf of
Mexico. A northern-stream shortwave trough -- now apparent in
moisture channel imagery over northern MB -- is forecast to dig
southeastward and strengthen considerably. This perturbation should
reach the upper Great lakes and mid Mississippi Valley by the end of
the period. As that occurs, a positively tilted trough -- currently
located from the Ozarks to northwestern Mexico -- will pivot
eastward. By 12Z, the southern trough should be located from the
southern Appalachians across southern LA to the western Gulf --
still positively tilted, but not as strongly so as presently.

At the surface, 11z analysis showed a frontal-wave low over the
north-central Gulf south of the mouth of the Mississippi River. A
strong, quasistationary baroclinic zone extended east-northeastward
across central FL to a weaker frontal-wave low over the Gulf Stream,
offshore from DAB. A cold front extended from the Gulf low
southwestward to central Mexico. As the mid/upper trough moves over
the western/northern Gulf, the western low will migrate along the
quasistationary segment of the front, either moving across or
re-developing on the other side of the FL Peninsula late this
afternoon through this evening. Following the passage of that low,
the cold front will sweep eastward/southeastward over the eastern
Gulf and down the western coast of the peninsula. The front should
reach at least a MLB-FMY line by 12Z, and may go as far as VRB-APF.

...FL...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop within a
near-frontal squall line over the astern Gulf and western FL from
late afternoon through tonight. Activity should move eastward
across the area and offer a predominant risk of damaging gusts,
though some tornado potential also may exist with preceding
supercells or line-embedded mesovortices.

As the cold front accelerates across the warm eastern Gulf waters
and impinges on its high-theta-e boundary layer, a line of
thunderstorms should form, in a favorable buoyancy/shear parameter
space. To its east, the frontal zone may shift northward up the
western and central peninsula as a warm front just ahead of the low,
expanding the overland portion of the favorable warm sector for a
short time. Meanwhile, slight veering of surface winds behind the
low should lead to inland advection of the Gulf warm sector, while
maintaining favorable low-level shear and SRH for severe potential.
That warm/moist advection will overcome an antecedent, relative
theta-e weakness in the interior of the peninsula enough to sustain
a severe threat away from the immediate Gulf coastal areas, perhaps
as far as central portions of the eastern coast. Forecast soundings
suggest 800-1500 J/kg MLCAPE near the western coast, decreasing to
500 J/kg or less with eastward extent. 30-40 kt effective-shear
magnitudes and 150-250 J/kg effective SRH are possible, supporting
potential for LEWP/bow configurations or short-lived embedded
supercells in the line, and warm-sector supercells cannot be ruled
out given the weakness of CINH.

The southern ends of the severe probability lines have been nudged
somewhat southward down the southwestern coast of FL, to allow room
for a faster motion of the front and associated convection than
earlier progs indicated.

..Edwards/Mosier.. 12/08/2017

------------------------------------------------------------
Discusiones a mesoescala por las nevadas.
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Mesoscale Discussion 1784
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0807 PM CST Thu Dec 07 2017

Areas affected...South-central TX

Concerning...Heavy snow

Valid 080207Z - 080400Z

SUMMARY...Narrow band of moderate snow with rates near 1"/hr that
has affected areas from Austin to College Station should gradually
shift east and weaken by midnight.

DISCUSSION...Ongoing 10-20 mile wide band of moderate snow has
yielded snowfall accumulations of 1-2" from Austin to College
Station over the past 90-120 minutes. Latest RAP and HRRR guidance
suggest that substantial drying in the 850-700 mb layer, sampled
well by the 00Z Fort Worth sounding, should lead to the demise of
this band over the next 2-3 hours. Until that occurs, snowfall rates
of 0.5-1.0"/hr will probably be maintained for another tier of
counties east of the ongoing band, roughly from Gonzales to
Washington/Grimes counties.

..Grams.. 12/08/2017

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Mesoscale Discussion 1785
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0138 AM CST Fri Dec 08 2017

Areas affected...TX Coastal Plain

Concerning...Heavy snow

Valid 080738Z - 081045Z

SUMMARY...Isolated pockets of moderate snowfall (i.e. rates briefly
approaching 1" per hour) possible during the next 2 to 3 hours.

DISCUSSION...Current observations reveal wet-bulb effects have
reduced temperatures from around 34-36 degrees F to closer to
freezing across much of the region. This reduction in temperatures
has resulted in a change-over from light rain to light/moderate snow
across the region, evidenced by recent surface observations
reporting snow from CRP northeastward as far north as BMT.
Frontogenetic forcing responsible for these bands of snow will
persist, while gradually weakening, for the next several hours as it
slowly shifts eastward in response to the progression of the
mid-level trough. As such, potential for light to moderate snow is
expected to continue across the region for the next 2 to 3 hours.

..Mosier.. 12/08/2017

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Mesoscale Discussion 1786
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0336 AM CST Fri Dec 08 2017

Areas affected...Far Southeast TX...Central/Southern
LA...Southwest/Central MS

Concerning...Heavy snow

Valid 080936Z - 081330Z

SUMMARY...Isolated/brief snowfall rates near 1 inch per hour
possible over the next several hours.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery shows a relatively heavier
region of precipitation moving through central/southern LA with
observations across southwestern portions of the state recently
changing over to snow. Expectation is for wet-bulb effects to result
in enough cooling to support a change-over to snow within the hour
for the remainder of central LA. Once this change-over occurs,
isolated/brief snowfall rates approaching 1" per hour are possible.
Areas of MS that are already experiencing light snow will likely
begin to experience heavier snowfall rates, at times approaching 1"
per hour, during the next 2 to 4 hours. Snowfall will gradually
diminish from west to east as the frontogenesis responsible for this
band of precipitation shifts eastward/northeastward in response to
the progression of the mid-level trough and the advection of dry air
following in its wake.

..Mosier.. 12/08/2017

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Mesoscale Discussion 1787
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0755 AM CST Fri Dec 08 2017

Areas affected...Far West-central MS...Central AL...Northwest GA

Concerning...Heavy snow

Valid 081355Z - 081700Z

SUMMARY...Occasionally moderate to heavy snowfall (i.e. snowfall
rates around 1 inch per hour) are possible over the next several
hours across portions of central AL and northwest GA

DISCUSSION...Recent surface observations show that temperatures
across central AL and northwest GA have cooled enough to support
snow. Several sites are already reporting moderate snow with
isolated/brief instances of heavy snow (i.e. visibility less than
1/4SM) also being reported. Relatively heavier band of precipitation
is currently ongoing across southeast MS/southwest AL and its
northeasterly motion is expected to take it into central AL and
northwest GA over the next few hours. As a result, snowfall rates
may occasionally top 1 inch per hour in isolated locations.
Subfreezing surface wet-bulb temperatures are expected to remain
north of a line from MEI northeastward to RMG, keeping areas south
of this line predominately rain.

..Mosier.. 12/08/2017

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Mesoscale Discussion 1788
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1106 AM CST Fri Dec 08 2017

Areas affected...Southern Appalachians Region

Concerning...Heavy snow

Valid 081706Z - 082100Z

SUMMARY...Snow rates may approach 1" per hour across parts of the
southern Appalachians this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Heavier band of precip is beginning to spread across
northern GA into the southern Appalachian region where temperatures
are below freezing, or are expected to wet-bulb to near freezing.
Forecast soundings suggest the rain/snow line will hold across
extreme northwest SC but possibly sag a bit south into southern VA
over the next few hours due to some wet-bulb cooling. Along the
southern fringe of the heavier snow band a brief mixture of sleet is
possible but overall the highlighted region should experience snow
rates approaching 1" per hour into the mid afternoon hours,
especially over the higher terrain.

..Darrow.. 12/08/2017

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Mesoscale Discussion 1789
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2017

Areas affected...Parts of southern/eastern Virginia into the
Delmarva Peninsula

Concerning...Heavy snow

Valid 081952Z - 090045Z

SUMMARY...Heavy snow rates around or in excess of 1 inch per hour
could develop and impact Richmond and surrounding areas of southern
and eastern Virginia by early evening. This could commence as early
as 5 PM EST and continue through the 8-9 PM EST time frame.

DISCUSSION...Strengthening large-scale ascent is contributing to
increasingly saturated thermodynamic profiles and precipitation
rates across much of southern through eastern Virginia. This
appears likely to be aided by a zone of enhanced lift associated
with mid-level frontogenetic forcing, which is forecast to redevelop
northeast of the central Appalachians through the northern Mid
Atlantic Coast region by early this evening. This is expected to
increase lift through the favorable mixed-phase layer for large
dendritic ice crystal growth, which could potentially provide
support for heavy snow rates.

Generally west through north of the Hampton Roads area, roughly from
near Danville through much of the Greater Richmond area,
northeastward into the Delmarva Peninsula, models suggest that
temperature profiles are generally below freezing. Current surface
temperatures/wet-bulb temperatures appear marginal for snow reaching
the surface. However, with the onset of nightfall, and perhaps
weak low-level cold advection and cooling associated with melting
precipitation, a changeover to snow appears possible by the 22-23z
time frame, if not before. Heavy snow rates around or in excess of
1 inch per hour appear possible, and may continue into the 01-03Z
time frame, before diminishing.

..Kerr.. 12/08/2017

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Mesoscale Discussion 1790
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0532 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2017

Areas affected...Portions of northern Georgia...including the
Atlanta metro area

Concerning...Heavy snow

Valid 082332Z - 090230Z

SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snow (i.e., snowfall rates around 1
in/hr) remain possible through 03Z across portions of northern GA.
Mixed precipitation (e.g., snow/sleet/rain) is expected farther
south near the Atlanta metro area.

DISCUSSION...Latest objective analysis, coupled with forecast
soundings from the RAP/NAM, indicate frontogentical forcing in the
700-500 mb layer is enhancing deep-layer ascent within a saturated
dendritic growth layer over northern GA. This is helping to maximize
snowfall rates across the area, with surface observations indicating
rates of around 1 in/hr to the north of the Atlanta metro area.

A stout melting layer is also evident in dual-polarization radar
data lifting northward into the Atlanta metro area, as warm air
advection near 700 mb impinges on the area. This will allow for
mixed precipitation, with snow/sleet/rain possible across the metro
area. If the melting layer continues to shift further northward,
then it would cut down on snowfall rates across portions of across
northern GA.

Precipitation is expected to decrease in intensity later this
evening (i.e., after 03z) as frontogentical forcing shifts to the
east/northeast of the area.

..Elliott.. 12/08/2017
Última edición por stormchaserAlberto el Vie Dic 08, 2017 9:03 pm, editado 2 veces en total.
Dome, dome, dome..The life is a dome

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Ale de Castelar
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor Ale de Castelar » Vie Dic 08, 2017 5:02 pm

Es comun que nieve en esta zona? digamos....
Cuantas veces al año?
Cada cuantos años?
menos de 30 grados de latitud.....que diferencia con nuestro hemisferio





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Santiago Linari
Mensajes: 6847
Registrado: Sab Dic 29, 2012 4:28 pm
Ubicación: Challao, Mendoza

Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor Santiago Linari » Vie Dic 08, 2017 5:49 pm

Corpus Christi es donde tocó tierra el huracán Harvey...
Pones canciones tristes para sentirte mejor

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Stormy
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor Stormy » Vie Dic 08, 2017 9:34 pm

Ale de Castelar escribió:Es comun que nieve en esta zona? digamos....
Cuantas veces al año?
Cada cuantos años?
menos de 30 grados de latitud.....que diferencia con nuestro hemisferio


Esa zona de Brownsville, fronteriza con México, tuvo nada más otra nevada como la de hoy en 2004, por lo tanto son dos en los últimos...120 años!! A mi criterio, en lo que vamos de este siglo, el evento de nieve más inusual del planeta si tenemos en cuenta la altitud+latitud (25º a nivel del mar).
mateix escribió:pamperos que hacen disparar la T...

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maxi_rosario_eche21
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor maxi_rosario_eche21 » Vie Dic 08, 2017 10:43 pm

Ale de Castelar escribió:menos de 30 grados de latitud.....que diferencia con nuestro hemisferio

Porto Alegre seria el equivalente en latitud y altitud a esa zona.
Resistencia y Corrientes también andan por ahí

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Stormy
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Ubicación: La Plata

Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor Stormy » Vie Dic 08, 2017 11:00 pm

maxi_rosario_eche21 escribió:
Ale de Castelar escribió:menos de 30 grados de latitud.....que diferencia con nuestro hemisferio

Porto Alegre seria el equivalente en latitud y altitud a esa zona.
Resistencia y Corrientes también andan por ahí


No, Porto Alegre está justo en el 30º. Esto sería más bien como si nevara en la zona entre Camboriú y Santos.
mateix escribió:pamperos que hacen disparar la T...


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