Seguimiento general en EEUU

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stormchaserAlberto
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor stormchaserAlberto » Dom Jun 04, 2017 6:02 pm

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Mesoscale Discussion 0946
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0306 PM CDT Sun Jun 04 2017

Areas affected...Portions of the Ohio Valley

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 042006Z - 042100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few storms this afternoon/early evening will be capable
of marginally severe hail and strong, gusty winds. While convective
trends are being monitored, watch issuance appears unlikely at this
time.

DISCUSSION...Along the far southeastern fringe of a mid-level
trough, convection has developed within a weakly confluent low-level
environment this afternoon. Strong surface heating and dew points
generally in the upper 50s/lower 60s have promoted MLCAPE values
around 500-1000 J/kg, sufficient for a few vigorous updrafts.
Additionally, steep low-level lapse rates will support occasional
strong surface gusts, with localized damage possible. However,
uni-directional tropospheric flow and modest mid-level winds cast
doubt upon the potential for greater storm organization this
afternoon. In turn, while a few stronger cores may support gusty
winds and marginally severe hail, the overall severe threat appears
somewhat limited, and watch issuance is unlikely at this time.

..Picca/Guyer.. 06/04/2017
Dome, dome, dome..The life is a dome

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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor stormchaserAlberto » Dom Jun 04, 2017 7:47 pm

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Mesoscale Discussion 0947
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0428 PM CDT Sun Jun 04 2017

Areas affected...Central ID...Western MT...Far east-central OR

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 042128Z - 050000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Increased thunderstorm coverage anticipated over the next
few hours. Some severe is possible and convective trends will be
monitored closely for possible watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Forcing for ascent continues across the region,
evidenced by increased cumulus development across far eastern OR.
Leading edge of the better forcing is demarcated well by the
high-level clouds extending across eastern WA and OR. Orographic
lift is also supporting storm development across central ID and
adjacent western MT. Storms in this area have remained sub-severe
thus far, likely a result of meager instability.

Continued eastward progression of the approaching shortwave trough
will gradually increase the forcing for ascent across the northern
Rockies, where widely scattered to scattered thunderstorm coverage
is expected late this afternoon and into tonight. Additionally,
cooler mid-level temperatures attendant to the shortwave will result
in a modest increase in instability. Strengthening flow aloft will
support long hodographs and moderate bulk shear. The resultant
combination of modest instability and sufficient shear will foster
an environment supportive of a few strong updrafts capable of hail
and damaging wind gusts. Uncertainty regarding severe coverage
precludes higher watch probabilities and convective trends will be
monitored closely.

..Mosier/Thompson.. 06/04/2017

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Mesoscale Discussion 0948
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0514 PM CDT Sun Jun 04 2017

Areas affected...Portions of south Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 042214Z - 050015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong/severe storms will be possible through
early evening with a risk for damaging winds and perhaps hail. A
watch is not anticipated due to the localized nature of the threat.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms were noted in regional radar composite
imagery over south Texas this afternoon in the vicinity of a sea
breeze boundary, likely augmented by weak ascent with a subtle
mid-level impulse. A severe thunderstorm over southern Kennedy
county was propagating south near the sea breeze boundary.
Temperatures in the 90s and dew points mostly in the 70s have
yielded moderate surface-based buoyancy. Light southeast/south
low-level flow beneath weak westerlies aloft have resulted in 35-40
kts of westerly effective bulk shear. The more intense storms will
pose a risk for damaging winds as water loading within a high PW
environment drives strong downdrafts. Additional storm development
is expected along the sea breeze and resulting from outflow boundary
interactions.

..Bunting/Thompson.. 06/04/2017
Dome, dome, dome..The life is a dome

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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor stormchaserAlberto » Mar Jun 06, 2017 6:43 pm

Riesgo leve para el este de Nuevo México, marginal para el resto y la Florida, por el desplazamiento de una baja en altura.
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% de tornados.
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Viento.
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Granizo.
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Discusión.
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Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 PM CDT Tue Jun 06 2017

Valid 062000Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEW MEXICO...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms will remain possible through tonight
across portions of the central and southern High Plains as well as
parts of the Florida Peninsula.

...Southern/Central Plains...
No major changes are made to the ongoing categorical areas. The
Marginal Risk is expanded slightly westward to account for
developing convection across the higher terrain of western New
Mexico. MLCAPE upwards of 1000 J/kg and adequate anvil-layer flow
may promote a few instances of large hail. Otherwise, the Slight
Risk over eastern New Mexico remains on track, as effective shear
upwards of 35 kt and adequate surface-based buoyancy are promoting
strong to severe convection this afternoon. For more details,
reference Mesoscale Discussion 956.

...Portions of Florida...
Widespread shower and thunderstorm activity has resulted in
boundary-layer stabilization over parts of the region late this
afternoon. An outflow boundary continues to push south across far
northern Florida, stabilizing regions to the north. As such,
southern Georgia is removed from the ongoing Marginal Risk. To the
south, despite ongoing precipitation, somewhat favorable low-level
shear and rich boundary-layer moisture will maintain a threat for
localized gusts and perhaps a tornado with any
semi-discrete/embedded cores.

..Picca.. 06/06/2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CDT Tue Jun 06 2017/

...Eastern NM and other parts of central/southern High Plains...
Multiple mid-level low-amplitude disturbances (mostly convectively
related) across the central High Plains this morning will move
south-southeastward on the periphery of an upper-level ridge
centered over the southern Rockies and northwest Mexico. On the
periphery of this upper ridge, 12Z upper-air analysis features a
relatively moisture-rich air mass extending from far west/northwest
TX into eastern NM with around 12 C 850 mb dewpoints coincident with
prevalent 50s surface dewpoints per latest surface data. While
mid-level winds were relatively weak, 12Z upper-air analysis also
featured a somewhat stronger belt of high-level (~250 mb)
northwesterly winds extending from the southern Rockies into west
TX, with notably weaker mid/high-level winds farther north/northeast
across the central High Plains.

Given the previously described scenario, it appears that a somewhat
greater collocation of moisture/buoyancy and effective shear will
exist this afternoon across eastern NM. Latest thinking is that
storms will initially develop across east-central NM and the Raton
Mesa vicinity by around mid-afternoon. In the presence of ample
moisture and moderate buoyancy, vertical shear (30-35 kt effective)
should be sufficient for well-sustained multicells and possibly some
supercells this afternoon. Severe hail should be the primary threat
initially along with some potential for a brief tornado/landspout.
Severe-caliber wind gusts may also become an increasing concern by
late afternoon and early evening as storms congeal and spread
south/southeastward across eastern NM toward far west TX.

...Florida and nearby Southeast States...
A somewhat complex mesoscale scenario exists across the region
today, mostly attributable to multiple corridors of existing
convection, related outflow, and corridors of differential cloud
cover. A mid/upper-level low will continue slowly eastward today
along the central Gulf Coast, with expectations for gradually
strengthening low/mid-level winds to gradually overspread especially
the central and southern FL Peninsula coincident with a very moist
air mass. Pockets of stronger afternoon heating, such as is
occurring at midday across the south-central Peninsula, could lead
to a diurnal intensification of storms. However, it appears that a
nearly full-period severe risk will exist for at least some damaging
wind/brief tornado risk, especially across parts of the central and
southern FL Peninsula where vertical shear will be strongest.

Próxima actualización: 01:00z.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Últimas discusiones a mesoescala.
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Mesoscale Discussion 0949
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1132 AM CDT Mon Jun 05 2017

Areas affected...Southern New York...Northeast Pennsylvania

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 051632Z - 051900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A marginal severe threat will be possible this afternoon
across parts of southern New York and northeastern Pennsylvania. A
few strong wind gusts and hail may occur but the activity is
expected to remain too marginal for weather watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a 1005 mb low over
south-central New York. A corridor of low-level moisture is present
ahead of the surface low from central Pennsylvania northward into
central New York where surface dewpoints are in the lower 60s F.
Although the airmass has been slow to destabilize, surface
temperatures have warmed into the mid to upper 60s F. This is
contributing to a narrow corridor of instability with the RAP
estimated MLCAPE around 500 J/kg. In addition, water vapor imagery
shows an upper-level trough over the Great Lakes with a subtle lead
impulse moving through the central Appalachians. This feature along
with continued surface heating should help maintain convective
development across southern New York over the next several hours.
Convection may also develop west-southwestward into northern
Pennsylvania later this afternoon as is suggested by the HRRR. The
shear environment is sampled well by the Binghamton WSR-88D VWP
which shows 0-6 km shear of 55-60 kt and directional shear in the
boundary layer. This should support a marginal severe threat. A few
damaging wind gusts will be possible mainly with short bowing line
segments. Hail may also occur with the stronger updrafts.

..Broyles.. 06/05/2017

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Mesoscale Discussion 0950
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 PM CDT Mon Jun 05 2017

Areas affected...Deep South TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 051830Z - 052100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Large hail and damaging wind gusts possible as
thunderstorm coverage increases this afternoon. Convective trends
across the region will be monitored for possible watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Strong instability continues to build across deep south
TX with temperatures already in the mid to upper 90s and dewpoints
in the upper 60s to low 70s. Recent mesoanalysis estimates MLCAPE is
around 2500 J/kg across much of the region, with little to no
convective inhibition remaining. This erosion of the convective
inhibition sample on the 12Z BRO and CRP soundings is further
evidenced by the increasing cu field noted on recent visible
imagery.

Modest forcing for ascent (associated with a weak perturbation
rounding the western periphery of the upper low) will continue to
interact with this unstable environment over the next few hours,
likely supporting an increase in both thunderstorm coverage and
strength. Additionally, slightly stronger mid-level flow through the
base of the upper low will contribute to stronger bulk shear and the
potential for updraft organization. These stronger, more organized
storms will have the potential to produce large hail and damaging
winds gusts. Limited spatial extent of the threat precludes higher
watch probabilities but convective trends across the region will be
monitored closely.

..Mosier/Guyer.. 06/05/2017

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Mesoscale Discussion 0951
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 PM CDT Mon Jun 05 2017

Areas affected...Northeast Kentucky...Ohio...Southwest
Pennsylvania...Northern West Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 051900Z - 052130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A marginal severe threat appears likely to develop across
the upper Ohio Valley this afternoon. Hail and strong wind gusts
will be possible as storms gradually intensify over the next few
hours. Weather watch issuance is not expected although the situation
will continue to be monitored.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a cold front located
from far northwest Pennsylvania extending west-southwestward into
central Ohio and central Indiana. To the south of the front, a moist
airmass is in place with surface dewpoints from the mid 60s to lower
70s F. As surface temperatures have warmed today, a narrow corridor
of weak instability has developed across southern Indiana and
south-central Ohio. At the same time, a capping inversion has
weakened across the region which has allowed scattered convection to
initiate. This convection is forecast to gradually increase in
coverage moving southeastward toward the Ohio River this afternoon.
The wind shear environment is sampled well by the Wilmington, Ohio
WSR-88D VWP which shows 0-6 km shear of 30 kt along with 35 to 45 kt
of flow in the mid-levels. This along with steepening low-level
lapse rates may support a marginal wind damage threat with the
stronger multicells. Hail may also occur with the stronger updrafts.

..Broyles.. 06/05/2017

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Mesoscale Discussion 0952
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0351 PM CDT Mon Jun 05 2017

Areas affected...Central/southern High Plains

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 052051Z - 052145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated hail and damaging wind gusts are possible during
the next several hours across portions of the southern and central
High Plains.

DISCUSSION...Storms across the region have largely been focused over
the higher terrain over the past few hours but insolation has
resulted in gradually eroding convective inhibition and a more
favorable thermodynamic environment across the adjacent High Plains.
Orographic effects will continue to support thunderstorms across the
higher terrain through the evening with increased coverage
anticipated downstream across the southern/central High Plains as
subtle forcing for ascent glances the region. Weakly sheared
environment is expected to preclude anything but modest storm
organization but some hail and gusty winds are still possible with
the strongest updrafts. Additionally, increased surface vorticity
associated with the convergence zone near the Palmer Divide could
result in a brief landspout. Marginal and isolated nature of the
severe threat is expected to preclude the need for a watch.

..Mosier/Guyer.. 06/05/2017

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Mesoscale Discussion 0953
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0501 PM CDT Mon Jun 05 2017

Areas affected...Northern Plains...central High Plains

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 052201Z - 052300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong wind gust and hail are possible through
the evening across portions of the northern Plains and central High
Plains. Watch not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...A warm and deeply mixed boundary layer exists ahead of
the cold front approaching the western Dakotas. The airmass is only
weakly unstable but the forcing for ascent along the frontal
boundary should still result in storm development. The strongest
storms are most likely across northeastern/east-central WY and
western South Dakota where the best alignment of shear, forcing for
ascent, and modest instability exists. Only isolated storm coverage
is anticipated but any storms that do develop could produce hail and
damaging wind gusts.

Farther south into southeast WY and the adjacent NE Panhandle,
storms have been largely anchored to the higher terrain but recent
radar imagery has shown a bit more tendency for storms persisting
once they move off the terrain. Expectation is for storms to persist
across the high terrain for the next hour or two before eventually
moving eastward/northeastward. Deeply mixed downstream environment
would foster an environment favorable for strong wind gusts. Some
isolated hail is also possible.

..Mosier/Thompson.. 06/05/2017

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Mesoscale Discussion 0954
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0633 PM CDT Mon Jun 05 2017

Areas affected...A small part of South Florida

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 052333Z - 060130Z[Spoiler]


Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A very isolated severe-storm risk could evolve into the
evening hours. Watch issuance will not be needed.

DISCUSSION...Subtle warm advection amid a very moist boundary layer,
characterized by middle/upper 70s dewpoints, is supporting
semi-discrete cells from northwest of the Miami area eastward toward
Fort Lauderdale. Radar imagery depicts transient supercell
structures evolving, consistent with the the around 45 kt of 0-6-km
bulk shear sampled by the Miami VAD wind profile. This activity is
backbuilding to the west, with individual cells forecast to advance
toward the coast and offshore through the evening hours. Since this
activity is residing in proximity to a precipitation-reinforced
boundary accompanied by pre-existing vertical vorticity and
substantive low-level buoyancy, LCLs are low, and low-level SRH is
around 200 m2/s2, brief low-level storm-scale circulations cannot be
ruled out. While a brief tornado/damaging wind gust could occur,
poor lapse rates will greatly mute upward convective accelerations
and mitigate a more substantial severe risk from evolving.

..Cohen/Thompson.. 06/05/2017[/Spoiler]
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Mesoscale Discussion 0955
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0401 AM CDT Tue Jun 06 2017

Areas affected...south Florida

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 060901Z - 061100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A brief tornado or two will remain possible through at
least 12Z, mainly over the western half of south Florida. Overall
threat is somewhat marginal and is limited spacial extent. A WW will
probably not be needed unless trends begin to suggest a more robust
threat will expand farther east toward the Miami area.

DISCUSSION...Early this morning storms continue to develop over
south FL /fostered by a 35 kt southwesterly low-level jet/ and train
eastward along an outflow boundary. The atmosphere over south
Florida is moderately unstable with 1500 J/kg MUCAPE. VWP data show
weakly veering low-level winds, relatively small 0-1 km hodographs
and around 35-40 kt surface to 6 km shear. While this environment is
supportive of some storms to develop supercell structures, the
relatively modest low-level hodograph size appears to be a limiting
factor for a more robust tornado threat. However, some enhancement
in low-level vorticity may exist as storms move along and interact
with the quasi-stationary outflow boundary, and a brief tornado or
two will remain possible. Tendency has been for storms to weaken as
they move farther inland and toward the more populated areas along
the east coast. As long as this trend continues, a WW will not be
necessary, but area will continue to be monitored.

..Dial/Goss.. 06/06/2017

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Mesoscale Discussion 0956
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0244 PM CDT Tue Jun 06 2017

Areas affected...Eastern New Mexico

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 061944Z - 062215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop across
the higher terrain of central NM this afternoon, and in vicinity of
a southwest-northeast oriented surface boundary in northeast NM.
Strong to severe storms will be possible with the initial activity,
while greater coverage could occur across eastern NM later this
afternoon and evening, with hail and strong wind gusts the primary
severe risks.

DISCUSSION...Trends in visible satellite and mosaic radar imagery
indicated extensive cumulus/moderate cumulus and CB development
across the higher terrain of NM and CO, while cumulus, and at least
one CB had also formed in northeast NM near a surface boundary in
that region. Despite some reduction in surface dew points, due to
boundary-layer mixing, values remained in the lower-middle 50s F
across eastern NM. Further surface heating (reducing surface-based
inhibition across the high plains) and the presence of steep
midlevel lapse rates atop the boundary layer moisture will
strengthen the available buoyancy. An 18Z sounding at Holloman Air
Force Base NM indicated SBCAPE close to 1000 J/kg.

Water vapor imagery indicated a series of weak impulses tracking
from southern CA through far southern NV toward the Four Corners
region, with an apparent lead impulse moving through northwest to
north-central NM at this time. Forcing for ascent, with this lead
impulse, should support additional storms in the higher terrain
(with activity moving toward the south and southeast with time) as
the impulse tracks into eastern NM atop east-southeasterly upslope
flow. CAPE/shear parameter space across eastern NM this afternoon
suggests multicell storm mode with hail and strong wind gusts being
the primary threats. Activity could merge/congeal into clusters,
during the late afternoon and early evening, with a subsequent
primary severe risk being damaging winds, as storms spread to the
south/southeast.

..Peters/Guyer.. 06/06/2017

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Mesoscale Discussion 0957
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 PM CDT Tue Jun 06 2017

Areas affected...Western KS and east-central to southeast CO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 062048Z - 062315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms will remain possible this
afternoon into the early evening across western KS into east-central
and southeast CO. Locally strong wind gusts and some hail will be
the primary severe risks. Given a low probability for storm
organization, WW issuance remains unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Trends in mosaic radar imagery and cloud-top cooling
(per IR satellite imagery) indicated thunderstorms continued to
develop this afternoon in vicinity of a couple surface boundaries
analyzed from southeast CO into northwest KS, and then southeast
into south-central KS. This activity has developed within a
moderately unstable environment, though bulk shear is relatively
weak resulting in pulse-type storms, and a limited potential for
supercells. Modest midlevel lapse rates (6.5-7 C/km) and the weak
bulk shear suggest a low probability for severe hail, while DCAPE
around 1000 J/kg per objective analyses suggests strong wind gusts
should be the greatest severe-weather threat.

..Peters/Guyer.. 06/06/2017

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Mesoscale Discussion 0958
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 PM CDT Tue Jun 06 2017

Areas affected...South-central Florida

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 062054Z - 062330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A marginal wind damage threat will be possible this
afternoon across the south-central Florida Peninsula. The threat is
not expected to be enough for weather watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a very moist air mass
in place across the Florida Peninsula with surface dewpoints
generally in the 70s F. A large number of storms across the southern
part of the Florida Peninsula has overturned the air mass. However,
the RAP is analyzing a narrow axis of instability to the southeast
of Tampa Bay extending northeastward to the central part of the
peninsula. A line segment is ongoing along the eastern edge of this
stronger instability. In addition, the Tampa Bay WSR-88D VWP has
moderate deep-layer shear (0-6 Km Shear near 35 kt). This may be
enough for weak organization of multicells and perhaps a weak
rotating storm as well. Strong wind gusts would be the primary
threat. The area with the greatest potential for marginal severe
would from near Lake Okeechobee northward to near Melbourne Florida
and westward to near Fort Meyers.

..Broyles.. 06/06/2017
Dome, dome, dome..The life is a dome

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stormchaserAlberto
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor stormchaserAlberto » Mar Jun 06, 2017 7:07 pm

WOW! :shock:
Link al tweet
Dome, dome, dome..The life is a dome

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stormchaserAlberto
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor stormchaserAlberto » Dom Jun 11, 2017 1:20 am

Se viene una madrugada un tanto activa. Lo mejor, durante esta tarde.
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% de tornados. Apenas un 2% entre Wisconsin y Minnesota.
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Viento.
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Granizo.
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Discusión.
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Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2017

Valid 110100Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SD TO
SOUTHWEST MN...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe thunderstorms are still possible across parts
of Wisconsin and Upper Michigan this evening. Severe thunderstorms
capable of large hail and damaging winds are expected to develop
late tonight across South Dakota, possibly reaching southern
Minnesota by early Sunday morning.

...WI/Upper MI...
Storm development has been sparse since this afternoon, with any
stronger storm development thus far having been relegated to the
immediate Lake Superior vicinity. Given only a glancing influence of
a shortwave trough over northern Ontario and capping with continued
mid-level warming (00Z GRB observed sounding featured daily record
with an around14C 700 mb temperature), the coverage/vigor of
additional storm development is a bit questionable. While adequate
CAPE/effective shear could support a few storms capable of severe
hail/wind tonight, any such development this evening should remain
relatively isolated.

...Eastern WY/SD to southern MN...
Modest low/mid-level moisture will steadily advect into the region
tonight in concert with an increasing low-level jet. It still
appears likely that storms will initially develop/increase by the
late evening hours across eastern WY into western SD. Steep lapse
rates and ample vertical shear will support the possibility of a few
supercells capable of large hail. Eventual storm mergers could lead
to an increasingly organized MCS during the overnight hours across
SD with an increasing potential for damaging winds. This MCS could
reach portions of southern MN by the early morning hours of Sunday.

..Guyer.. 06/11/2017

Próxima actualización: 06:00z.
------------------------------------------------------
Watch vigente.
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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 310
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
900 PM MDT Sat Jun 10 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Western and central South Dakota
Northeastern Wyoming

* Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 900 PM
until 400 AM MDT.

* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should continue to develop and gradually
increase in both coverage and intensity over the Black Hills region,
strengthening to severe levels over the next few hours. A mix of
damaging wind and large hail is expected in the early stages.
Activity then should shift into central South Dakota, assuming more
of an organized wind threat with time late tonight.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles north and south of a line from 65 miles west of Rapid
City SD to 80 miles east northeast of Pierre SD. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
26035.

...Edwards

------------------------------------------------
Últimas discusiones a mesoescala.
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Mesoscale Discussion 0959
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0550 PM CDT Tue Jun 06 2017

Areas affected...Portions of southwest KS...northwest OK...eastern
parts of the TX/OK Panhandles

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 062250Z - 070115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Storms moving into/across the area through the evening
hours will be capable of producing isolated severe wind gusts. Watch
issuance will not be needed.

DISCUSSION...Surface mesoanalysis depicts a diffuse stationary
boundary extending from northwest KS through south-central KS near
Medicine Lodge and into north-central OK near Enid. Progressively
lower theta-e air and weaker buoyancy exist with eastward
displacement from the boundary, while the air mass near and west of
the boundary is characterized by diurnally steepened lapse rates and
marginal buoyancy. Thunderstorm development continues in proximity
to the baroclinic zone, where boundary-layer circulations have been
diurnally bolstered. Convective clusters are loosely organizing and
developing southward/southeastward over western KS on the fringes of
a subtle midlevel impulse, and preceding isolated convective
development continues into south-central KS.

While a relative paucity of low-level moisture is restricting MLCAPE
to around 500-1000 J/kg, the deep and well-mixed boundary layer
characteristic of convective inflow will support evaporatively
cooled downdrafts yielding strong outflow winds. Sporadic severe
wind gusts may occur -- both with evolving cluster-mode convection
and preceding isolated convective cells -- given DCAPE around
1000-1300 J/kg. Present indications are that the individual cells
will be entering northwest OK and the OK Panhandle in the next
couple of hours, with the loosely organized convective clusters
entering northwest OK and the OK Panhandle after 02Z. Isolated
severe wind gusts could accompany this activity into the evening
hours, before nocturnal gains in boundary-layer static stability
occur. In addition to the limited moisture/buoyancy, the lack of
stronger deep shear (effective bulk shear around 25 kt or less)
should limit severe coverage.

..Cohen/Hart.. 06/06/2017

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Mesoscale Discussion 0960
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0633 PM CDT Tue Jun 06 2017

Areas affected...Parts of southeastern New Mexico

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 305...

Valid 062333Z - 070100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 305
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorm
development remains possible along the eastern slopes of the
Sacramento Mountains and north of Tucumcari NM through 00-02Z. The
need for an additional severe weather watch this evening appears
unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Widely scattered strong storm development continues to
develop across parts of eastern New Mexico, in the presence of
generally light (but modestly sheared in spots) northwesterly deep
layer mean flow and steep lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates. CAPE
appears largest (1000-2000 J/kg) within relatively moist upslope
flow along the eastern slopes of the Sacramento Mountains. And this
environment seems to offer the best potential for sustained vigorous
storm development, including supercell structures, through the
00-02Z time frame.

A small consolidating cluster of thunderstorms north of Tucumcari NM
could pose a risk for a strong downburst during the next hour or two
while slowly developing southward. Eventually, though, this
activity may be disrupted by convective outflow now slowly advancing
northward through the Tucumcari area.

..Kerr.. 06/06/2017

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Mesoscale Discussion 0961
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0913 PM CDT Tue Jun 06 2017

Areas affected...A small part of South Florida including portions of
the Miami area and the FL Keys

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 070213Z - 070445Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated severe risk will exist across a small part of
South Florida through the overnight hours. A low risk for isolated
damaging wind gusts or a tornado could exist, but Watch issuance is
very unlikely.

DISCUSSION...A forward-propagating convective cluster has advanced
across the central FL Peninsula and moved offshore. An outflow
boundary, trailing southwest of the convective complex that recently
moved off the Palm Beach to Fort Lauderdale area coast, is denoted
by a fine line on Miami radar imagery drifting slowly southward
across the Miami area from Coral Gables westward to Mainland Monroe
County. This boundary may slow its southward progress or stall a
little farther south, owing to the deep southerly flow component
sampled by the Miami VAD wind profile while the primary cold pool
surge spreads off the Atlantic coast.

Additional convection regenerating off the southwest coast of FL in
a persistent warm conveyor will spread eastward across the area into
the overnight hours. With 30-35 kt of deep shear, continued
semi-organized convective structures could move across the area.
Localized wet microbursts may support isolated damaging wind
gusts -- aided by water-loading processes in the very moist
environment characterized by a PW around 2.2 inches per the 00Z
Miami sounding. Also, a low tornado risk may accompany mesovortices
and/or transient supercell structures embedded within the convective
clusters. This could focus around pre-existing vertical vorticity
attendant to the outflow boundary, amid sufficient low-level shear
and ample low-level moisture sampled by the aforementioned
sounding -- e.g., 17.6 g/kg mean mixing ratio -- supporting around
125 J/kg of 0-3-km MLCAPE. Storms with strong wind gusts may also
cross the FL Keys -- evolving from the regenerating upstream
convection. However, across the area, the presence of (1) poor lapse
rates, (2) the cluster-type convective mode, and (3) lack of
stronger deep shear should prevent a more substantial severe risk
from evolving.

..Cohen/Hart.. 06/07/2017

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Mesoscale Discussion 0962
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 AM CDT Wed Jun 07 2017

Areas affected...South-central Florida Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 071648Z - 071915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A marginal wind damage threat should continue this
afternoon across the south-central Florida Peninsula. A brief
tornado can not be ruled out as well. Weather watch issuance is not
expected but the situation will continue to be monitored.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a 1005 mb low over
the northeastward Gulf of Mexico. A moist airmass is in place from
the low southeastward across the Florida Peninsula where surface
dewpoints are mostly in the lower 70s F. A band of strong
thunderstorms is ongoing across the central Florida Peninsula. Ahead
of this band, a narrow corridor of warmer surface temperatures is
present and the RAP is estimating MLCAPE values in the 1000 to 1500
J/kg range. In addition, WSR-88D VWPs at Tampa Bay and Melbourne
show 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 40 kt range with mostly
unidirectional wind profiles. This should continue to support a line
segment as it moves across the south-central Florida Peninsula. A
marginal wind damage threat should exist with bowing structures
embedded in the line. Although low-level shear is not that strong, a
brief tornado may also occur if a cell within the line can develop
rotation.

..Broyles/Guyer.. 06/07/2017

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Mesoscale Discussion 0963
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 PM CDT Wed Jun 07 2017

Areas affected...Portions of eastern ND and northwestern MN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 071836Z - 072100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A brief tornado/landspout threat should continue through
the afternoon. Watch issuance is not currently anticipated for this
activity, although radar trends will be monitored.

DISCUSSION...Multiple reports of brief tornadoes/landspouts have
been received across Grand Forks and Traill counties in ND since
1745Z. These tornadoes are likely occurring due to non-supercellular
processes. Namely, ambient low-level vorticity focused along a weak
surface boundary across eastern ND is being tilted/stretched into
the vertical within thunderstorm updrafts and beneath an
eastward-moving upper low. Low-level lapse rates have steepened this
afternoon along and east of the surface boundary with diurnal
heating with MLCAPE now into the 500-750 J/kg range. The VWP from
KMVX shows weak low-level southerly winds veering to southwesterly
and modestly strengthening with height (to 4-5 km AGL). A
combination of all these factors is likely contributing to the
ongoing brief tornado/landspout threat. Current expectations are for
the overall severe risk to remain marginal/isolated for the next
several hours, and watch issuance appears unlikely at this time.

..Gleason/Guyer.. 06/07/2017

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Mesoscale Discussion 0964
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0312 PM CDT Wed Jun 07 2017

Areas affected...Portions of eastern CO...southeastern WY...and
western NE

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 072012Z - 072215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated threat for large hail and strong to damaging
winds will exist through the early evening. Watch issuance is
unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Recent visible satellite imagery depicts an uptick in
convective coverage and intensity across parts of eastern CO,
southeastern WY, and western NE. A minor impulse noted on water
vapor satellite crossing the central Rockies and weak low-level
upslope flow are likely contributing to the increase in thunderstorm
coverage. Low-level moisture remains generally limited per area 12Z
soundings and 20Z surface observations showing dewpoints remaining
in the upper 40s to mid 50s. But, ample diurnal heating along with
steep mid-level lapse rates are contributing to MLCAPE ranging from
500 J/kg along the Front Range of CO to 1000-1500 J/kg farther east
across the central High Plains.

A large-scale upper ridge remains centered over much of the western
CONUS and Rockies, with modest (generally 25 kt or less) mid-level
northwesterly flow present over the discussion area. Still, a
veering wind profile from the surface to around 6 km should support
enough effective bulk shear to have semi-organized updrafts.
Convection developing along the Front Range and what appears to be a
weak surface boundary in western NE will be capable of isolated
instances of large hail and strong to locally damaging winds through
this evening. There may be some potential for one or more small
clusters of thunderstorms to develop and move east-southeastward
with time, which could increase the damaging wind threat some if
they develop. Regardless, current expectations are for the overall
severe risk to remain isolated/marginal, and watch issuance appears
unlikely.

..Gleason/Guyer.. 06/07/2017

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Mesoscale Discussion 0965
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0422 PM CDT Wed Jun 07 2017

Areas affected...Portions of NM

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 072122Z - 072315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and strong/gusty winds may occur
through this evening with the strongest thunderstorms. Watch
issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Beneath upper ridging centered over the Four Corners
region/Southwest, isolated to scattered thunderstorms have developed
mainly across the higher terrain of much of NM. Surface dewpoints
generally in the low to mid 40s indicate a relative lack of
low-level moisture across the discussion area, and the 12Z sounding
from ABQ had a precipitable water value of just 0.79 inch.
Regardless, steep mid-level lapse rates of 7.5-9.0 C/km and diurnal
heating have resulted in mostly weak instability developing across
NM this afternoon, with MLCAPE ranging from 500-1250 J/kg per 21Z
RAP Mesoanalysis. Mid and upper-level flow remain weak per recent
VWPs from KABX and KHDX, although some veering with height is
contributing to 20-30 kt of effective bulk shear. This should be
sufficient to support modest updraft organization within the
strongest cores, and isolated instances of large hail may occur. In
addition, strong/gusty winds will be possible given steep low-level
lapse rates and a well mixed boundary layer enhancing convective
downdrafts. Overall, the severe threat through this evening will
likely be tempered by weak wind shear/updrafts, and watch issuance
is not expected.

..Gleason/Hart.. 06/07/2017

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Mesoscale Discussion 0966
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0530 PM CDT Wed Jun 07 2017

Areas affected...portions of northwest Minnesota

Concerning...Tornado Watch 306...

Valid 072230Z - 072330Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 306 continues.

SUMMARY...The tornado threat has largely ended across portions of
northwest Minnesota. Tornado Watch 306 will expire at 23z.

DISCUSSION...A weakening trend has been noted on radar observations
over the last hour as a line of storms continues to track east
across northwestern MN. Increasing boundary layer stabilization with
loss of daytime heating will continue to stabilize the boundary
layer. Additionally, weak instability with MLCAPE values around
250-500 J/kg will further limit robust convection into the evening
hours. Given the decreasingly favorable environment, a downstream
watch is not expected and WW 306 will expire at 23z.

..Leitman.. 06/07/2017

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Mesoscale Discussion 0967
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0711 PM CDT Wed Jun 07 2017

Areas affected...Portions of eastern CO and western KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 080011Z - 080245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A potentially developing cluster of thunderstorms may be
sustained along its south-southeastward track over the central High
Plains through the evening hours. Isolated severe wind/hail may
accompany this activity. While convective trends will continue to be
monitored, Watch issuance is presently unlikely.

DISCUSSION...The coverage of closely spaced convective
cells/multicells over northeast CO is becoming sufficiently
substantive, that there appears to be increasing potential for
merging outflows to breed localized upscale convective growth early
this evening. Inflow for this activity lies within a corridor of
recycled moisture characterized by middle/upper 50s surface
dewpoints and steep low-level lapse rates supporting 500-1500 J/kg
of MLCAPE. With widespread insolation south and southeast of this
activity, MLCINH is sufficiently low for preferential regenerative
convective growth along the southern fringes of the growing storm
cluster -- especially as a southerly low-level jet strengthens
through the evening. The net result could be a south-southeastward
moving convective cluster being sustained through the evening hours
across parts of eastern CO and western KS, with 900-1200 J/kg of
DCAPE supporting isolated severe winds. Severe hail will also be
possible with initially intensifying updrafts. However, with
effective shear of only 20-25 kt, overall mesoscale convective
organization may be somewhat lacking with leading-line convection
potentially becoming quickly undercut by strong outflow.

..Cohen/Hart.. 06/08/2017

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Mesoscale Discussion 0968
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0338 PM CDT Thu Jun 08 2017

Areas affected...Southwest Kansas into the Oklahoma and Texas
Panhandles

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 082038Z - 082245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of mainly large hail
are expected to form between 22-23Z.

DISCUSSION...Visible imagery shows outflow boundaries from southwest
KS into the eastern OK panhandle, and across the eastern TX
panhandle. South and west of these boundaries, the air mass
continues to heat with temperatures in to the mid 80s and with
dewpoints ranging from the 50s to the lower 60s. These aggregate
outflows are also reflected in the surface pressure fields with a
meso high over south central KS and north west OK. This in turn will
likely maintain southeasterly surface winds through evening, aiding
in overall shear profiles.

One or more storms are expected to form across southwest KS into the
OK panhandle prior to 00Z, with other sporadic activity possibly
developing out of the TX panhandle CU field as well west through
southeast of Amarillo. Modest northwesterly flow aloft atop the
low-level southeasterlies may support southward-moving cells,
perhaps supercellular at times, with large hail of 1.50-2.00" the
primary threat.

With time, activity may merge with a possible outflow or MCS
developing southeastward out of NM.

..Jewell/Guyer.. 06/08/2017

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Mesoscale Discussion 0969
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0412 PM CDT Thu Jun 08 2017

Areas affected...Southern/central High Plains

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 082112Z - 082345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts and hail are possible through
the evening across portions of the central and southern High Plains.
Isolated and marginal nature of the severe threat is expected to
preclude watch issuance but trends across the area will be monitored
closely.

DISCUSSION...Current visible satellite imagery continues to show
building cu across the higher terrain of the central and southern
High Plains. Thus far, any attempts for the storms to move off the
higher terrain have resulted in quick dissipation, with the
exception of the multicells moving across northeast NM. Warm and
deeply mixed environment across the High Plains is tempering the
overall instability somewhat but a moderately unstable airmass is
still expected across the region through the evening. Additionally,
southeasterly surface winds beneath northwesterly flow aloft is
resulting in modest shear. The resulting environment is supportive
of weak updraft organization and at least a few stronger storms.
Deeply mixed sub-cloud layer and high LCLs will contribute to a
damaging wind threat. Some isolated hail is also possible with the
strongest updrafts.

..Mosier/Guyer.. 06/08/2017

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Mesoscale Discussion 0970
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0524 PM CDT Thu Jun 08 2017

Areas affected...Portions of western/central Montana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 082224Z - 090000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to develop across the region
late this afternoon into this evening. As storms progress northeast,
they are expected to strengthen, with some potential for damaging
winds and large hail. Watch issuance may be needed within the next
hour or so.

DISCUSSION...Despite mid/high-level cloud cover having overspread
the region today, surface temperatures have warmed into the 80s
across much of western/central Montana. Increasing forcing for
ascent associated with an approaching shortwave trough and maturing
orographic circulations have fostered the development of
thunderstorms across the higher terrain of western Montana. As these
storms progress north/northeast, they will encounter an environment
characterized by steep low/mid-level lapse rates and adequate
boundary layer moisture (e.g., surface dew points in the upper 40s
to 50s). In turn, MLCAPE values upwards of 1000-1500 J/kg will
support vigorous updraft accelerations, and strong, uni-directional
south/southwesterly mid-level flow will encourage splitting/bowing
structures, enhancing the threat of damaging winds. Related to this
strong mid/upper flow, favorable effective shear may yield a few
rotating updrafts in any semi-discrete cores, resulting in some
instances of large hail. Considering this increasing threat of
severe weather, convective trends are being monitored for potential
watch issuance.

..Picca/Weiss.. 06/08/2017

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Mesoscale Discussion 0971
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0704 PM CDT Thu Jun 08 2017

Areas affected...Portions of the TX Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 090004Z - 090100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms are increasing in intensity across
the TX Panhandle. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats
with this activity. Watch will be needed soon based on radar trends.

DISCUSSION...Isolated convection that has struggled to intensify
most of the afternoon/early evening has recently strengthened along
an outflow boundary from prior thunderstorms in Moore and Hansford
counties in the TX Panhandle. Latest radar trends indicate the
supercell storm in Moore county in particular show the potential for
large to very large (2+ inch) hail, along with a damaging wind
threat. The environment across this region remains favorable for
storm organization, as veering/strengthening winds with height per
KAMA VWP are supporting 40-45 kt of effective bulk shear per 00Z RAP
Mesoanalysis. Supercell modes will be favored with this initial
development. There will be some potential for clustering of this
isolated activity to develop southward along a low-level moisture
gradient across the central TX Panhandle, which would increase the
damaging wind threat through the evening. Based on the latest radar
trends it appears a Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be needed soon.

..Gleason/Weiss.. 06/09/2017

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Mesoscale Discussion 0972
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0938 PM CDT Thu Jun 08 2017

Areas affected...Portions of the TX Panhandle into west TX

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 308...

Valid 090238Z - 090345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 308
continues.

SUMMARY...A severe supercell thunderstorm moving southward across
Randall County TX remains the primary threat for large hail and
damaging winds across WW 308.

DISCUSSION...A long-lived supercell with a history of producing 1-2+
inch hail and 60-70 mph measured wind gusts across Amarillo TX and
vicinity continues southward across Randall and towards Swisher
County TX as of 0230Z. An arcing line of thunderstorms has formed
east of this supercell across the TX Panhandle within a narrow
corridor of greater low-level moisture per latest surface
observations. This line of convection may also pose an isolated
damaging wind/large hail threat as it moves south of the TX
Panhandle over the next several hours. The airmass to the south of
ongoing activity remains favorable for maintenance of thunderstorm
updraft intensity and organization in the short term, with MLCAPE
generally ranging 500-1500 J/kg, and effective bulk shear values of
35-45 kt. Over the next few hours, the loss of diurnal heating
should weaken instability and increase convective inhibition, with a
slow weakening trend in convection expected through late evening.

..Gleason.. 06/09/2017

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Mesoscale Discussion 0973
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1012 PM CDT Thu Jun 08 2017

Areas affected...Portions of northern Montana

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 307...

Valid 090312Z - 090445Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 307
continues.

SUMMARY...While some threat of gusty winds and marginally severe
hail remains, the overall severe threat should continue to diminish
this evening.

DISCUSSION...Driven by a powerful cold pool (e.g., wind damage and a
significant severe gust reported along I-15 earlier), convection has
lifted northeast across Watch 307 this evening. This trend should
continue into the late evening, with the strongest cells likely
pushing into southern Alberta/Saskatchewan over the next hour or so.
Nonetheless, large temperature/dew point spreads ahead of the
surging outflow imply that the boundary layer remains favorable for
occasional gusty, locally damaging winds across far northeastern
portions of the watch.

Additionally, a few stronger cells have developed over Judith Basin
and Fergus counties this evening, with occasional 9km CAPPI cores
upwards of 50 dBZ. Residual steep mid-level lapse rates and the
continued influence of an approaching shortwave trough are likely
sufficient for the maintenance of these cells. While adequate
mid-level buoyancy profiles and vigorous southwesterly flow aloft
may provide a brief opportunity for strong winds and marginally
severe hail, increasing convective inhibition will likely temper the
overall threat. Therefore, new watch issuance is not expected.

..Picca.. 06/09/2017

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Mesoscale Discussion 0974
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0326 PM CDT Fri Jun 09 2017

Areas affected...Northern and eastern North Dakota into northwest
Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 092026Z - 092230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms is expected to form around 22Z
over north central North Dakota, and grow upscale into eastern North
Dakota into northwest Minnesota this evening. Large hail and
damaging winds are likely.

DISCUSSION...Visible imagery shows a CU field increasing in size and
depth near the warm front over northern ND, and extending southward
within the surface warm axis where temperatures have risen into the
mid 90s. Meanwhile, a weak surface low/trough will continue to
deepen and shift eastward with time, further increasing convergence.
This increasing lift and continued heating, combined with strong
warm advection should result in storm formation by around 22Z across
north central ND. The strong southerly low-level jet will favor a
southeastward storm motion via propagation, as cells grow upscale
with increasing damaging wind threat. Large boundary layer
temperature/dewpoint spreads as seen on 19Z BIS sounding should
further favor outflow production.

..Jewell/Hart.. 06/09/2017

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Mesoscale Discussion 0975
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0458 PM CDT Fri Jun 09 2017

Areas affected...Central Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 092158Z - 100030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A marginal severe threat for hail and wind damage will be
possible late this afternoon into this evening across parts of
central Texas. Weather watch issuance is not expected due to the
marginal nature of the threat.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a very moist airmass in
place from the lower Texas coast extending northward across the
Texas Hill Country. Surface dewpoints along this corridor are in the
upper 60s and lower 70s F which is contributing to MLCAPE estimated
by the RAP to be in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range. To the west of this
pocket of moderate instability, a vorticity max is evident on water
vapor imagery over west-central and southwest Texas. This feature
will continue to move eastward and will support a general increase
in convective coverage over the next few hours. In addition, WSR-88d
VWPs across central Texas show gradually veering winds with height
in the low to mid-levels which is resulting in 0-6 km shear in the
25 to 30 kt range according to the RAP. This combined with the
instability and steep lapse rates in the mid-levels will support a
marginal severe threat. Hail will be possible with the stronger
updrafts and a few strong wind gusts may also occur as thunderstorm
downdrafts develop and mature over the next hour or two.

..Broyles/Weiss.. 06/09/2017

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Mesoscale Discussion 0976
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0708 PM CDT Fri Jun 09 2017

Areas affected...Portions of ND and northwestern MN

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 309...

Valid 100008Z - 100115Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 309
continues.

SUMMARY...A damaging wind and large hail threat continues across WW
309. A local extension in area of the watch into parts of
northwestern MN may be needed within the next hour.

DISCUSSION...As of 00Z, multiple measured severe wind gusts of
83-104 mph have occurred over the past hour with a supercell
thunderstorm evolving into a small bow across Pierce into Benson
Counties in ND. A separate supercell in Wells County ND has recently
produced multiple large hail reports, some as large as 2 inches in
diameter. Finally, another supercell producing measured severe wind
gusts is moving southeastward along to perhaps just north of a
surface warm front draped across ND into western MN. The environment
downstream of this ongoing activity into eastern ND will remain
favorable for continued severe storm maintenance, with large hail,
damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two all possible. If any
supercell can remain discrete, the tornado threat may become
maximized near the warm front with locally backed surface winds
enhancing effective SRH. The warm front should serve as an eastward
limit to the more substantial surface-based supercell threat. Based
of its current position, a small eastward extension in area for the
ongoing Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be warranted for parts of
northwestern MN based on current radar trends.

..Gleason.. 06/10/2017

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Mesoscale Discussion 0977
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0837 PM CDT Fri Jun 09 2017

Areas affected...Southeast MT

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 100137Z - 100400Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are likely to increase in coverage and
intensity across southeast MT through the evening hours. Some of the
stronger storms will be capable of severe-caliber wind gusts and
some hail.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have shown signs of intensification early
this evening across southeast MT, particularly near/between
Interstates 90 and 94 from near Hardin to the Forsyth/Rosebud areas
(southwest of Miles City) as of 0130Z. While the boundary layer is
not overly moist or potentially unstable in the presence of lower
40s F surface dewpoints, weak CAPE/steep lapse rates and
strengthening deep-layer southwesterly winds (noted in upstream 00Z
upper-air data) above the surface will support some stronger
updrafts/downdrafts. This may especially be the case as stronger
forcing for ascent currently overspreading eastern ID/southwest
MT/far western WY approaches the region, while low-level upslope
trajectories continue to gradually increase within the post-frontal
environment.

Any severe risk across southeast MT over the next few hours should
remain relatively localized, although a somewhat more organized
cluster of storms capable of localized severe-caliber winds could
eventually materialize and spread northeastward later this evening.

..Guyer/Weiss.. 06/10/2017

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Mesoscale Discussion 0978
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0930 PM CDT Fri Jun 09 2017

Areas affected...Portions of eastern ND and northwestern MN

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 309...

Valid 100230Z - 100330Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 309
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe risk appears to be transitioning to mainly damaging
winds across eastern ND, and a slow decrease in the overall threat
should occur as storms approach the Red River. While a local
extension in area of the Severe Thunderstorm Watch could be needed
for a small part of northwestern MN, downstream watch issuance into
more of northern MN appears unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Radar trends across eastern ND over the past hour have
shown a transition to a mixed mode of supercells/short line
segments, with a general decrease in reflectivities at 7 and 9 km
CAPPIs. Surface observations suggest this ongoing convection is
beginning to impinge on a surface warm front located across eastern
ND into northwestern MN. The airmass to the east of the warm front
is much less unstable, and convection should undergo a slow
weakening trend as it approaches the Red River over the next several
hours. In the meantime, a strengthening 40-50 kt southerly low-level
jet evidenced on the KABR VWP may help to maintain the intensity of
the ongoing thunderstorms, and damaging winds would appear to be the
main severe threat in the short term, although large hail may still
occur with any embedded supercell. In addition, a tornado cannot be
ruled out with any supercell that crosses the warm front in the
short term.

Another small local extension in area may be needed within the next
hour for a portion of northwestern MN (Norman/Clay counties and
vicinity) based on current radar trends. But, given the increasingly
marginal thermodynamic environment with eastward extent into
northern MN, downstream watch issuance is unlikely.

..Gleason.. 06/10/2017

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Mesoscale Discussion 0979
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0331 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2017

Areas affected...MN Arrowhead

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 102031Z - 102230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts and
hail are possible during the next few hours across the MN arrowhead.
A watch is not currently anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis show the frontal boundary is
located from just east of ORB southwestward through AIT. Visible
imagery shows an increasingly agitated cu field along and just ahead
of this boundary. The character of this cu field suggests convective
inhibition is eroding, which matches the most recent mesoanalysis
estimates of little remaining convective inhibition. Temperatures
have warmed into the upper 80s ahead of the front, which, when
coupled with dewpoints in the mid 60s and steep mid-level lapse
rates is supportive of MLCAPE around 1500-2000 J/kg. Additionally,
downstream kinematic profiles characterized by strong mid-level flow
(over 70 kt at 500 mb) and ample bulk shear (over 60 kt from 0-6 km
per the latest mesoanalysis) suggest the potential for storm
organization. The persistent warm mid-level temperatures and
associated capping will likely temper convective coverage and the
current expectation is for any thunderstorm activity to remain
co-located with the frontal boundary. Even so, favorable
thermodynamic and kinematic environment results in the potential for
a few damaging wind gusts and hail with any storms that do develop.
Anticipated limited spatial and temporal extent of the threat is
expected to preclude the need for a watch.

..Mosier/Bunting.. 06/10/2017

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Mesoscale Discussion 0980
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0812 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2017

Areas affected...Portions of western Upper MI and northern WI

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 110112Z - 110315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...While an isolated severe storm may develop this evening,
the overall severe threat is expected to remain too marginal to
warrant watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite as of 00Z shows some attempts at
convective initiation along and just ahead of a surface cold front
across northern WI into western Upper MI. One thunderstorm has been
successful in maintaining itself over southwestern Lake Superior as
it moves over Houghton County in the Upper Peninsula of MI. However,
low-level convergence along the cold front is weak, with veered
southwesterly flow across the warm sector ahead of it. Very warm 700
mb temperatures (13+ C at GRB and OAX) across this region, neutral
to rising mid-level heights, and strengthening convective inhibition
with the onset of diurnal cooling are all acting to limit the
prospect for substantial thunderstorm development this evening.
While a strong to severe storm or two with marginally severe hail
and strong/gusty winds could occur over the next several hours,
particularly with northward extent into western Upper MI where
mid-level temperatures are slightly cooler, the likelihood for a
long-lived/organized severe threat appears quite low. Therefore,
watch issuance is not expected at this time.

..Gleason/Edwards.. 06/11/2017

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Mesoscale Discussion 0981
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0944 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2017

Areas affected...Northeast WY into western and central SD

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 110244Z - 110445Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The potential for storms to increase in coverage,
intensity and severe-weather threat is becoming more likely across
far northeast Wyoming into western South Dakota. WW issuance will
be coordinated soon for parts of western and central South Dakota
for this evening into the overnight.

DISCUSSION...Trends in mosaic radar imagery indicated an increase in
storm development and intensity since 0120-0140Z across northeast WY
and adjacent western SD where both low-level convergence and upslope
flow into the Black Hills is indicating an increase in moisture/
destabilization. Further strengthening of southerly low-level winds
into tonight from the central Plains into SD will support additional
theta-e advection. This combined with a plume of steepening
700-500-mb layer lapse rates of 7.5-8.5 C/km spreading across the
low-level moistening will support moderate instability. Vertically
veering winds from southerly at low-levels to 500-mb southwesterly
winds of 55-75 kt will contribute to quite favorable bulk shear for
storms to organize.

Given cooling surface temperatures, new storm development should be
primarily elevated within a strengthening low-level warm air
advection regime as a warm front advances poleward toward the NE/SD
border overnight. Despite the elevated nature of these storms,
sufficient dry air in the lower troposphere per 00Z RAP sounding
should allow for a damaging-wind threat, in addition to large hail.

..Peters/Edwards.. 06/11/2017
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor stormchaserAlberto » Dom Jun 11, 2017 2:11 am

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Mesoscale Discussion 0982
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1156 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2017

Areas affected...Western and central SD

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 310...

Valid 110456Z - 110700Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 310
continues.

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms with attendant severe-weather threat are
expected to increase in coverage from west to east overnight, with
large hail and damaging winds being the primary severe risks.

DISCUSSION...Mosaic radar imagery continued to show thunderstorms
developing across the western part of WW 310 (in northeast WY into
western SD), as strengthening southerly low-level winds result in
northward theta-e advection into southern SD. This destabilizing
process will continue north of the warm front, which was analyzed at
0430Z extending from the NE Panhandle to northeast NE. Objective
analyses indicated strong low-level warm air advection, especially
at 700 mb, which will further aid in destabilization. Thus, these
factors combined with steepening midlevel lapse rates and increasing
bulk shear are expected to support additional thunderstorm
development from west to east, with a gradual increase in
severe-weather risk as activity develops from western into central
SD. Last several runs of the HRRR suggest a marked increase in
thunderstorm coverage across WW 310 between 07-09Z.

..Peters.. 06/11/2017
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor stormchaserAlberto » Dom Jun 11, 2017 11:37 am

Aquí vamos con el día de hoy. Viento, el riesgo principal.
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Granizo.
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Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 AM CDT Sun Jun 11 2017

Valid 111300Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM EAST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND SOUTHERN UPPER
MICHIGAN...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
ENHANCED RISK AREA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING FOR A
SMALL PART OF SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING AND NORTHERN COLORADO...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms with a substantial damaging-wind threat are expected
to persist today across east central Minnesota into northern
Wisconsin and a small part of southern Upper Michigan. Isolated
strong-severe storms will also be possible across parts of southeast
Wyoming/northern Colorado, and the northern Great Basin.

...MN/WI today...
An ongoing MCS in southwestern MN will likely persist through the
day while moving east-northeastward along a warm front across
southern MN to central WI. The MCS formed in a zone of strong warm
advection on the nose of a 50 kt low-level jet, and should continue
to move along the buoyancy gradient (north edge of steep midlevel
lapse rates and boundary layer dewpoints 67-70 F). MUCAPE of
2000-3000 J/kg, effective bulk shear near 50 kt, and strong
downdraft potential will aid in a continued substantial risk for
damaging winds today across east central MN into northern WI.
Isolated large hail will also be possible with the strongest storms,
as well as a couple of tornadoes with embedded circulations.

Additional strong-severe thunderstorm development may occur this
afternoon along the outflow-reinforced front across MN/WI, given
lingering strong buoyancy south of the morning MCS track.

...The Front Range of southeast WY and northern CO this evening...
An increasingly moist upslope/post-frontal flow regime will become
established by this afternoon across southeast WY and northeast CO.
The more probable area for isolated storm development will be near
the east slope of the Laramie Range southward into northern CO. If
storms do manage to form, the near-storm environment could support
supercells with isolated large hail.

...Northern NV/southern ID into western WY this afternoon...
A closed midlevel low over northern CA will move slowly eastward to
northern NV by tonight. Downstream from the low, upper divergence
in the exit region of the cyclonically curved jet will combine with
daytime heating to support at least widely scattered thunderstorm
development. Low-level moisture and buoyancy will remain limited,
though steep low-level lapse rates and substantial deep-layer
southerly shear could support isolated storms with gusty outflow
winds.

..Thompson.. 06/11/2017

Próxima actualización: 16:30z.
------------------------------------------------------
Watch vigente.
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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 312
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
625 AM CDT Sun Jun 11 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Parts of east central and southeast Minnesota
Northwest Wisconsin

* Effective this Sunday morning from 625 AM until NOON CDT.

* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 75 mph possible
Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...A well-developed, bowing cluster moving into southwest
Minnesota this morning will likely persist and reach the Minneapolis
area by mid morning and northwest Wisconsin by late morning.
Damaging winds will be the main threat, though isolated large hail
will also be possible with the strongest embedded storms.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles northwest of
Mankato MN to 60 miles east northeast of Eau Claire WI. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 311...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
26045.

...Thompson

--------------------------------------
Últimas discusiones a mesoescala.
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Mesoscale Discussion 0983
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0202 AM CDT Sun Jun 11 2017

Areas affected...east-central and northeast SD...southwest into
central MN

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely

Valid 110702Z - 110800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat over central SD will move east of WW 310
and into portions of eastern SD and eventually into parts of
southwest MN.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery shows a cluster of severe thunderstorms
developing over central SD at the terminus of a 60-kt central Plains
LLJ. Subjective surface mesoanalysis places a warm front advancing
northward through the NE Sandhills east-northeast through extreme
southeast SD into far southeastern MN.

Strong mid- to high-level westerly flow (60-70 kt at 500-mb per 00Z
RAP and ABR raobs) will strongly favor storm organization with
effective shear 50-60 kt. Although surface conditions across the
discussion area are in the lower 70s with 50s degrees F dewpoints,
strong warm/moist advection above the surface will continue to
destabilize the airmass to the east of the ongoing storms. Forecast
soundings show 700-500 mb lapse rates steepening markedly during the
next several hours (in excess of 8 degrees C/km). Upscale growth
into a severe-wind producing MCS is expected later tonight into the
early morning but large hail/severe gusts will be the threats with
the storms before the convective mode transition occurs (somewhere
over eastern SD approaching the MN border).

..Smith/Thompson.. 06/11/2017

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Mesoscale Discussion 0984
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CDT Sun Jun 11 2017

Areas affected...east-central SD into southwest MN

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 311...

Valid 110900Z - 111000Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 311
continues.

SUMMARY...A corridor of scattered to widespread gusts ranging from
50-75 mph are possible as the storm mode evolves from cellular to
bow/line segment over the next 1-2.5 hours.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a congealing cluster of
intense/severe thunderstorms from near Huron southwest into Buffalo
County as of 09Z. A couple of storms have developed in the warm
advection wing to the east of the severe cluster during the past
hour concurrent with a merging of thunderstorms cores on southwest
flank of the lead cellular storm. The continued upscale growth into
a severe bow/line segment is likely over the next 1-2.5 hours to the
north of a warm front draped over far southeastern SD into the
southern tier of counties in southern MN. As a result, it appears
increasingly likely a concentrated area to the east of the
thunderstorm complex (Miner/Kingsbury counties east into Lincoln
county MN) will have increased potential for scattered to widespread
50-75 mph gusts.

..Smith.. 06/11/2017

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Mesoscale Discussion 0985
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0551 AM CDT Sun Jun 11 2017

Areas affected...central and eastern parts of MN...west-central and
northwest WI

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely

Valid 111051Z - 111215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...A severe bow echo will likely move east of WW 311 and
reach the Minneapolis/Saint Paul metro around 9AM CDT. Corridors of
50-70 mph gusts will yield scattered wind damage. A new severe
thunderstorm watch will likely be issued by 7AM CDT.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a maturing bow echo moving east
around 45 kt across eastern SD with a well-developed comma head and
rear inflow channel. Very high echo tops (55k ft) associated with
the updrafts within the line indicate ample buoyancy and a
considerable amount of hydrometers suspended aloft which will
translate to severe gusts via 1) momentum transport 2) water
loading, and 3) evaporative cooling---which should enable stronger
downdrafts to punch higher momentum flow to the surface in the form
of 50-70 mph gusts. It seems the concentration of wind
damage/severe gusts may preferentially favor the western half of the
discussion area as less moisture-rich air infiltrates western WI
prior to squall line passage.

..Smith/Thompson.. 06/11/2017

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Mesoscale Discussion 0986
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0930 AM CDT Sun Jun 11 2017

Areas affected...East central and southern Minnesota into Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 312...

Valid 111430Z - 111530Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 312
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat of damaging winds and hail will persist across
eastern Minnesota and across much of Wisconsin. An additional watch
will be required for the remainder of the Enhanced Risk area.

DISCUSSION...A long-lived severe bow echo continues eastward across
MN with apex now crossing the MS river. The MCS trails southwestward
into south-central MN as well, where eastward motion is slower.

A warm front currently extends from the MSP area eastward across
central WI. This boundary will continue to lift northward throughout
the day, with an increasingly moist and unstable air mass spreading
northward ahead of the MCS. Meanwhile, shear profiles in the low
levels will also increase due to 30-40 kt 850 mb flow.

A damaging wind risk will continue with the bow apex, even though it
may remain slightly north of the surface warm front, traveling
east-northeastward across northern WI. The slower southern portion
of the line may eventually re-organize into a more severe segment as
instability and inflow both increase later today. Damaging winds and
hail should continue to the be main risks with the MCS. If isolated
cells can develop along the warm front, a tornado risk would exist.
More likely, the intersection of the MCS/outflow and warm front will
pose the greatest tornado threat in QLCS fashion.

..Jewell.. 06/11/2017
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor stormchaserAlberto » Dom Jun 11, 2017 2:07 pm

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Mesoscale Discussion 0987
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2017

Areas affected...Northern and central Wisconsin into Upper Michigan

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 313...

Valid 111700Z - 111900Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 313
continues.

SUMMARY...The damaging wind threat should persist across the watch
area through the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A long-lived bow echo continues to move rapidly
eastward across north central WI, with slower trailing line segment
extending into southwest WI. Surface observations indicate gradual
heating via advection ahead of the line, with dewpoints rising as
well. The greatest threat area should continue to be with the bow
apex, which will track eastward along the lifting warm front.
Transient areas of embedded rotation including a risk for a weak
tornado may exist. Southern parts of the line currently contain more
marginal wind, but the storms remain substantial, and conditions
ahead of the line remain diurnally favorable for some further
strengthening. Marginally severe hail is also possible with the
stronger cores.

..Jewell.. 06/11/2017

------------------------------------------------------
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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 313
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1035 AM CDT Sun Jun 11 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southern Michigan Upper Peninsula
Northeast Wisconsin
Lake Michigan

* Effective this Sunday morning and afternoon from 1035 AM until
400 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
Widespread damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 75 mph possible
Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...A long-lived complex of severe storms will continue moving
rapidly east-northeast across the watch area through this afternoon.
Damaging winds are likely, with a few gusts to 75 mph. Large hail
will also be possible.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles southwest of
Rhinelander WI to 40 miles south southeast of Escanaba MI. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 312...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
25045.

...Bunting
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor stormchaserAlberto » Dom Jun 11, 2017 3:52 pm

Última actualización del SPC. El viento, continúa siendo el riesgo principal.
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Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1136 AM CDT Sun Jun 11 2017

Valid 111630Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
ENHANCED RISK OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FRONT
RANGE OF NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
THE GREAT BASIN EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms with a substantial damaging-wind threat are expected
to persist today across northern Wisconsin and a small part of
southern Upper Michigan. Isolated strong-severe storms will also be
possible across parts of southeast Wyoming/northern Colorado, and
the northern Great Basin.

...Synopsis...
An upper low over the northern California coast will move slowly
east towards the Great Basin through tonight. A belt of stronger
mid-level flow will extend across the central/northern Rockies and
from the northern Plains/Upper Midwest into New England. A surface
warm front extends along the southern periphery of the stronger
mid-level flow from low pressure over southeast South Dakota across
central Wisconsin, with a trailing cold front from the low into
northeast Colorado. A surface trough/dryline extends south through
eastern Colorado into far west Texas.

...Upper Midwest/northern Great Lakes into central Plains...
A well-developed bowing MCS continues to move east-northeast at
around 50 kts with a history of wind damage/measured severe gusts
and large hail. In the short-term this MCS is likely to track along
the instability gradient as the warm front slowly lifts north across
central/northern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan aided
by 40-45 kt 850 mb inflow. Severe wind and hail will remain primary
threats, with a tornado risk associated with QLCS circulations.
Severe storms may also develop in advance of the MCS associated with
low-level warm advection, with supercell structures possible given
ample effective shear and buoyancy. Isolated strong/severe storms
are expected to expected to redevelop later this afternoon west of
the MCS along the composite frontal boundary as afternoon
heating/destabilization takes place within a favorably sheared
environment. Isolated occurrences of large hail and damaging winds
will be possible.

...Front Range of northeast Colorado/southeast Wyoming...
An increasingly moist upslope/post-frontal flow regime will become
established by this afternoon across southeast WY and northeast CO.
The more likely area for isolated severe storm development will be
near the east slope of the Laramie Range southward into northern CO.
Within an environment characterized by MLCAPE of 1000-1500 j/kg and
around 40 kts of deep-layer shear, storms that do form will develop
supercell structures capable of isolated large hail.

...Northern Nevada/southern Idaho into western Wyoming this
afternoon...
A closed mid-level low over northern California will move slowly
eastward to northern Nevada by tonight. Downstream from the low,
upper divergence in the exit region of the cyclonically curved jet
will combine with daytime heating to support at least widely
scattered thunderstorm development. Low-level moisture and buoyancy
will remain limited, though steep low-level lapse rates and
substantial deep-layer southerly shear could support isolated storms
with gusty outflow winds.

..Bunting/Hart.. 06/11/2017

Próxima actualización: 20:00z.
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Watch vigente.
Imagen
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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 314
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
225 PM EDT Sun Jun 11 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northern Lower Michigan and the eastern Upper Peninsula
Lake Huron
Lake Michigan
Lake Superior

* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 225 PM until
700 PM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...A long-lived line of severe storms will continue moving
rapidly east-northeast across the watch area this afternoon.
Damaging winds will be the primary threat and large hail is also
possible.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles north of
Pellston MI to 45 miles south of Pellston MI. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 313...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
25045.

...Bunting
Dome, dome, dome..The life is a dome

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lucas de zarate
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor lucas de zarate » Dom Jun 11, 2017 3:58 pm

50 mapas por un 2% de riesgo de tornados, me imagino cuando venga un brote!


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