Seguimiento general en EEUU

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stormchaserAlberto
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor stormchaserAlberto » Sab Oct 21, 2017 10:46 pm

Así se veían las superceldas de Oklahoma desde el GOES-16.
Link al tweet
----------------------------------------------------------
Nueva discusión a mesoescala. Continúa el riesgo para tornados aislados hasta las 06z y el riesgo para vientos severos provocados por la intensa línea de inestabilidad que se desplaza en la región.
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Mesoscale Discussion 1729
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0834 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Areas affected...Central/eastern OK and north TX

Concerning...Tornado Watch 503...504...

Valid 220134Z - 220300Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 503, 504 continues.

SUMMARY...Primary hazard should be strong to severe wind gusts with
an accelerating line of storms moving east, but a couple brief
tornadoes will remain possible within embedded mesovortices.

DISCUSSION...An extensive QLCS extends from southeast MN into
northwest TX. Strong to severe wind gusts of 45-60 mph have been
common per OK Mesonet sites. This should remain the primary hazard
as the line progresses east in tandem with a convectively reinforced
cold front, likely reaching the Tulsa metro area around 10 pm. With
surface dew points in the middle 60s and 0-1 km SRH around 300 m2/s2
per TLX/INX VWP data, transient mesovortices will pose a risk for a
couple brief tornadoes along the line. The progressive, surging
nature of the composite outflow/front should mitigate a greater
tornado threat.

..Grams.. 10/22/2017

-----------------------------------------------------
Hace aproximadamente 1 hora, salió la nueva actualización del convective outlook para lo que resta de esta noche y la madrugada. Se mantiene a una parte de Oklahoma, de Texas, del sudeste de Kansas, sudoeste de Missouri y el nordeste de Arkansas en ENHANCED. No se descartan algunos tonados aislados. Riesgo más significativos el granizo y el viento.
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Discusión.
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Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Valid 220100Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST KANSAS...SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...A LARGE
PORTION OF OKLAHOMA...AND PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
ENHANCED RISK...EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI TO CENTRAL TEXAS...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA...FROM PARTS OF WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
TO TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue this evening and into
the overnight hours across parts of the southern/central Plains.
Large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes will all be
possible, primarily across the southern Plains.

...Upper Mississippi Valley to Texas tonight...
Steady advance of a surface cold front across the central U.S. is
forecast tonight, eastward toward/across the upper and middle
Mississippi Valley and southeast across the southern Plains.
Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing along the front at this time
from northern Minnesota to western north Texas -- with the strongest
storms -- including a few supercells -- indicated from central
Oklahoma south-southwest to western north Texas.

These stronger storms are ongoing within the region of greatest
instability, with mixed-layer CAPE roughly 1500 to 2000 J/kg within
this zone. With time, storm clustering/upscale growth toward a
quasi-linear configuration along -- and just to the rear of -- the
advancing front is expected, and thus threat will trend more toward
damaging winds and some hail, as convection shifts east and
southeast across the lower Missouri Valley/Ozarks/southern Plains.
In the short term however, while convection maintains some local
cellular characteristics in that central Oklahoma to north Texas
zone, large hail and the potential for a couple of tornadoes will
continue.

..Goss.. 10/22/2017

Se actualizará nuevamente a las 06z.
--------------------------------------------
Severa granizada afectó durante esta tarde a Headrick, Oklahoma. 3 pulgadas de diámetro :shock: .
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor stormchaserAlberto » Dom Oct 22, 2017 12:20 am

Nueva discusión a mesoescala por vientos dañinos y granizo severo hasta temprano en la mañana.
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Mesoscale Discussion 1730
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1009 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Areas affected...North-central TX

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 505...

Valid 220309Z - 220445Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 505
continues.

SUMMARY...Line of strong to severe storms with primary hazards of
wind and hail should accelerate east across parts of north TX.

DISCUSSION...Trailing portion of an extensive QLCS extends to the TX
Big Country. Parts of this line have begun to surge/accelerate east
over the Low Rolling Plains and the primary hazard should be strong
to severe wind gusts as the line persists just south of the Red
River. The far southwest portion of the line should pose a risk for
isolated severe hail owing to a more semi-discrete mode. While the
00Z FWD sounding sampled mean mixing ratios of only around 11 g/kg,
a plume of richer boundary-layer moisture characterized by near 70 F
surface dew points is being advected north towards the Metroplex and
north-central TX. This might foster a maintenance of QLCS intensity
during the early morning, compensating for gradual nocturnal
cooling.

..Grams.. 10/22/2017

----------------------------------------------------
Nuevo watch por tormentas severas, teniendo como riesgos primarios vientos dañinos y posibilidad de un tornado o dos.
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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 506
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
930 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southeast Kansas
Southwest Missouri

* Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 930 PM
until 400 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...A line of strong to locally severe thunderstorms will
continue to steadily spread east/northeastward through the late
evening and overnight hours. Isolated damaging winds should be the
primary risk, although a brief line-embedded tornado cannot be ruled
out.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45
statute miles east and west of a line from 75 miles north northwest
of Springfield MO to 25 miles south southeast of Monett MO. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 502...WW 503...WW
504...WW 505...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
26040.

...Guyer

-------------------------------------------------------
En total, se reportaron 4 tornados en Oklahoma.
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor stormchaserAlberto » Dom Oct 22, 2017 1:13 am

Nueva discusión a mesoescala por la chance de fuertes a severas ráfagas aisladas y algún corto tornado hasta las 07z.
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Mesoscale Discussion 1731
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1042 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Areas affected...Eastern OK...Western AR...Ark-La-Tex

Concerning...Tornado Watch 504...

Valid 220342Z - 220515Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 504 continues.

SUMMARY...Strong to isolated severe wind gusts along with a brief
tornado should remain possible across WW 504 through about 07Z. A
severe thunderstorm watch is probable into western AR and the
Ark-La-Tex by 05Z.

DISCUSSION...A QLCS from Ottawa to Love counties in OK should
continue eastward overnight. OK-Mesonet wind gusts have generally
weakened into the 35-45 mph range along the line during the past
hour as pre-frontal convection has increased ahead of the line over
east-central/southeast OK. This should merge into the line during
the next hour or so and likely lead to the QLCS accelerating east
towards the OK/AR border, with some intensification to the
reflectivity gradient possible along the composite outflow/front
once the merging process completes. Given the downstream presence of
67-71 F surface few points, moderate buoyancy should remain
supportive of isolated severe gusts and wind damage throughout the
early morning.

..Grams.. 10/22/2017

Increíble la línea. Va desde casi Wisconsin hasta Texas.
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Nuevo watch por tormentas severas.
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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 507
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1155 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Western Arkansas
Southern Missouri
Far Southeast Oklahoma
Northeast Texas

* Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 1155 PM
until 700 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Linear bands of storms will continue to steadily move
generally eastward through the early morning hours. Locally damaging
winds will be the primary hazard, but a brief tornado cannot be
entirely ruled out with line-embedded circulations amidst strong
low-level shear.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles east northeast
of Springfield MO to 50 miles southwest of Texarkana AR. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 504...WW 505...WW 506...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27030.

...Guyer
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor stormchaserAlberto » Dom Oct 22, 2017 3:05 pm

Riesgo marginal hoy en las costas del Golfo de Lousiana, Mississippi, el Panhandle de Florida y Alabama(2% de tornados). También hay otra zona entre Montana y Dakota del Norte.
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Discusión.
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Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

Valid 221630Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHEAST LA...AND THROUGH TONIGHT INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
AL...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NORTHERN MT TO NORTHWESTERN ND...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging gusts will be possible this afternoon across
southeast Louisiana, while isolated damaging gusts and a brief
tornado or two will be possible through tonight into southern and
central Alabama. Isolated strong/damaging gusts will be possible
this afternoon and evening across northern Montana and northwestern
North Dakota.

...Southeast LA today and southern AL through tonight...
A midlevel trough approaching the MS Valley could briefly evolve
into a closed low over the Mid South, prior to beginning to
accelerate north-northeastward as a more open wave Monday. An
associated surface cold front will continue eastward across
LA/MS/AL, to the south of weak cyclogenesis across the TN and lower
OH Valleys. Outflow from overnight convection has become the
effective cold front across LA/MS this morning, and this boundary
will continue to move eastward/southeastward through the day.
Farther east, a zone of low-level warm advection, on the nose of the
richer low-level moisture and highest PW, has focused convection
from the MS coast into southwest AL. Several storms with supercell
structures have been observed, per the Mobile VWP hodograph, though
the storms thus far have weakened while encountering a more stable
environment inland.

Some low-end damaging wind potential will accompany the outflow
across southeast LA today, and there will continue to be a low-end
threat for rotating storms and a brief tornado along the southeast
MS and southwest AL coasts. Gradual destabilization is underway to
the east of the ongoing warm advection storms, and it appears there
will be enough inland warming and moistening to support some
expansion of the marginal risk area in AL through tonight.

...Northern MT/northwestern ND this afternoon/evening...
A strong mid-upper jet accompanying a shortwave trough will progress
eastward from the northern Rockies to the northern High Plains,
before turning southeastward around the northeastern periphery of a
ridge along the Pacific coast. Surface heating and residual
low-level moisture should be sufficient to support very weak
surface-based CAPE this afternoon/evening from northern MT into
northwestern ND, along and immediately south of the path of the
associated surface cyclone. Given steepening low-level lapse rates
with the weak buoyancy, some low-topped convection could result in
downward transport of high-momentum flow just above the surface.

..Thompson/Leitman.. 10/22/2017

Se actualiza de vuelta a las 20z.
----------------------------------------------------------------
Últimas discusiones a mesoescala.
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Mesoscale Discussion 1732
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

Areas affected...Northeast TX...Southeast OK...Western
AR...Southern/central MO

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 506...507...

Valid 220644Z - 220815Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 506, 507
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief
tornado continues across primarily northeast TX/far southeast OK
into western AR.

DISCUSSION...Some modest intensification has recently been noted
with the QLCS moving into western AR as a cold front continues to
surge east-southeastward in conjunction with the convective system.
04Z SGF and 06Z LZK soundings depict an environment that is still
favorable for surface-based convection, with sufficient effective
shear to maintain organized storm structures, and a 56 kt gust was
recently noted at KFSM in the vicinity of a line-embedded
circulation on the leading edge of the QLCS. Some severe/damaging
wind-gust threat should continue across portions of western/central
AR into northeast TX, with only weak stabilization expected ahead of
the line overnight, given the very moist airmass in place. The
magnitude of low-level shear/helicity is sufficient to also support
a brief tornado threat with the strongest line-embedded
circulations.

Some threat will also extend into portions of southern MO in the
short term, though convection into central MO should continue to
weaken due to decreasing moisture and instability with northward
extent, and at this time is appears unlikely that watch extension or
new watch issuance will be needed to the north or east of WW 507
across central/eastern MO.

..Dean.. 10/22/2017

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Mesoscale Discussion 1733
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0457 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

Areas affected...Northeast TX...Northern LA...Eastern AR...Southeast
MO

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 507...

Valid 220957Z - 221130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 507
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for strong wind gusts remains in and near
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 507, but should continue to decrease with
time.

DISCUSSION...The long-lived QLCS currently arcing from northeast TX
into south-central MO has generally weakened over the last 1-2
hours, as surface-based instability has gradually decreased with
nocturnal cooling. However, some threat for strong wind gusts will
continue in the short term, especially across parts of eastern AR,
where pockets of higher theta-e remain and the north-south
orientation of the line is somewhat more favorable (compared to
areas further southwest) for the development of small bowing
segments.

Given the general weakening trend, new watch issuance downstream of
WW 507 is considered unlikely, though a marginal damaging wind risk
may persist into portions of eastern AR, and also from east TX into
northeast LA as the composite front/outflow moves southeast across
that area.

..Dean.. 10/22/2017

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Mesoscale Discussion 1734
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0541 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

Areas affected...Southeast LA...Southern MS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 221041Z - 221245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Persistent thunderstorm clusters will pose a threat for
locally damaging wind and/or a brief tornado this morning.

DISCUSSION...At 1030Z, a very persistent thunderstorm cluster
continues to impact portions of southeast LA and adjacent southwest
MS. Broad rotation has occasionally been noted with individual cells
within this cluster, and some eastward propagation has recently been
noted as cells interact and continually feed into the cluster from
the south. This activity is being sustained within a region of rich
moisture and broadly confluent low-level flow, possibly being aided
by divergent upper-level flow downstream of an amplified upper
trough over the central CONUS.

While midlevel flow is modest at best across the region, low-level
easterly/southeasterly flow veering to southwesterly aloft is
resulting in sufficient effective shear/helicity for organized storm
structures. Locally damaging winds and a brief tornado will be
possible with the aforementioned long-lived thunderstorm cluster,
and also potentially with ongoing storms further south across
southeast LA, where weak rotation has occasionally been noted with
the strongest cells.

Watch issuance is not currently anticipated, given the marginal and
relatively localized nature of the threat.

..Dean/Edwards.. 10/22/2017

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Mesoscale Discussion 1735
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0929 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

Areas affected...Extreme parts of southeast MS and southwest AL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 221429Z - 221630Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A marginal tornado threat will continue this morning as
waterspouts develop and approach the coastal areas of southeast
Mississippi and southwest Alabama. This severe risk is expected to
be confined to locations mainly closer to the coast.

DISCUSSION...Trends in radar imagery across the central Gulf coast
indicated continued development of offshore low-level rotational
couplets, likely producing waterspouts, moving north toward the
coastal areas of southeast MS and southwest AL. VWP data at LIX/MOB
showed a persistent corridor of low-level confluence focusing
convective development in a south-north zone extending from the
north-central Gulf of Mexico into the discussion area. This area is
juxtaposed with weak warm-air advection located within the southeast
quadrant of the MCS (and attendant MCV) in southeast MS.
Precipitation and cloudiness attendant to this latter convection are
maintaining a stable environment inland. This factor is supporting
weakening of rotational couplets as they track north away from the
coast and this trend has been indicated by area radar imagery.

Easterly surface winds across coastal areas veering to southerly in
low-mid levels, resulting in hodograph curvature and effective bulk
shear around 35 kt will support additional organized storm
development within an unstable environment south of the coast.
Enhanced SRH in vicinity of a coastal boundary will sustain a low
probability for a tornado threat in coastal areas of this region.

..Peters/Thompson.. 10/22/2017

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Mesoscale Discussion 1736
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

Areas affected...portions of southern Alabama and th western Florida
panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 221900Z - 222030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong wind gusts and a brief/weak tornado or two
may occur across southern Alabama into the western Florida panhandle
through the afternoon and early evening. A watch is not expected at
this time.

DISCUSSION...Heating ahead of a cluster of storms currently located
over southwest AL has allowed for weak destabilization (less than
1000 J/kg) across the Florida panhandle into southern AL. While
midlevel lapse rates are unremarkable, convection is likely being
enhanced by an embedded MCV (noted earlier in the morning over
southeast MS). Near the apex of the bowing structure over Baldwin
County, AL some stronger wind gusts will be possible as the storm
cluster tracks east-northeast as low level lapse rates have
steepened sufficiently. Additionally, a narrow zone of effective SRH
values around 200 m2/s2 will shift northeast across southern AL and
the FL panhandle. A few briefly rotating cells have already been
noted moving inland east of Mobile and this trend should continue as
the system tracks northeast. Given the overall marginal nature of
the thermodynamic and kinematic environment and transient/weak
nature of any rotating cells, a watch is not expected at this time.

..Leitman/Thompson.. 10/22/2017
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor stormchaserAlberto » Mar Oct 24, 2017 12:01 pm

Para mi sorpresa, hubo tiempo severo ayer en algunas zonas del este de los Estados Unidos. Hoy, riesgo marginal en el nordeste. Adjunto algunas discusiones a mesoescala de ayer.
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Mesoscale Discussion 1737
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1207 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Areas affected...Extreme eastern GA...SC...western NC

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 231707Z - 231900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe threat will increase across SC and western NC into
the mid-afternoon hours. Tornado watch will likely be issued by
18-19z to account for this threat.

DISCUSSION...Water-vapor imagery suggests a well-defined short-wave
trough is ejecting across the TN Valley/northern Gulf States into
the southern Appalachians region. Ahead of this feature, an
elongated corridor of convection, roughly 100 mi wide, extends ahead
of the front from southern GA, north into eastern KY. While
instability should remain weak across the warm sector, partial
partial breaks in cloud cover have contributed to somewhat steeper
low-level lapse rates along an axis from extreme southeast GA into
central SC where values are on the order of 6 C/km. While buoyancy
across this region is only subtly greater than areas near the front,
shallow discrete convection has recently developed across coastal SC
and radar data suggests stronger updrafts are showing signs of
sustained rotation. With time frontal convection should intensify
and embedded circulations are certainly possible given the observed
shear, in addition to the discrete activity evolving ahead of the
frontal band. Tornado threat is expected to increase over the next
few hours and a watch will likely be issued by 18-19z to account for
this developing threat.

..Darrow/Thompson.. 10/23/2017

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Mesoscale Discussion 1738
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0333 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Areas affected...Southeast GA...SC...Western NC

Concerning...Tornado Watch 508...

Valid 232033Z - 232130Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 508 continues.

SUMMARY...Tornado threat continues across most of WW508.

DISCUSSION...Severe threat is rapidly diminishing across northwest
SC in the wake of pronounced frontal passage. Large-scale forcing
for ascent is focused across northern portions of the watch which
should maintain a more organized frontal squall line across this
region. Even so, embedded circulations have at times produced
tornadoes and this threat continues with LEWP-type structures.

Farther south, numerous showers, with minimal lighting, continue to
develop across coastal portions of SC. Strongest updrafts have
exhibited rotation at times and a few longer-lived supercells will
likely evolve ahead of the front within this larger region of
precipitation. Tornado threat will end from west to east with the
advancement of the wind shift.

..Darrow.. 10/23/2017

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Mesoscale Discussion 1739
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Areas affected...portions of southern VA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 232058Z - 232230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Severe threat may spread into portions of southern VA in
the next 1-2 hours. Given a lack of stronger instability, confidence
is low in convection maintaining organized severe threat. Trends
will be monitored closely for possible watch issuance in the next
hour or so.

DISCUSSION...The bowing segment of line of convection moving east
across western NC will continue to track northeast late this
afternoon. Several severe and tornado reports have been associated
with this convection across western NC and portions of Upstate SC.
However, it is uncertain how far northeast severe potential will be
maintained given very weak instability across southern VA where
surface heating has not been as strong and surface dewpoints are
lower than further to the southwest. That being said, strong deep
layer shear profiles could support strong wind gusts and perhaps
some rotating structures if the surging line can maintain
organization. This area will be monitored closely for possible watch
issuance by 22z.

..Leitman/Thompson.. 10/23/2017

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Mesoscale Discussion 1740
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0559 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Areas affected...Central through southern North Carolina and central
through eastern South Carolina

Concerning...Tornado Watch 508...

Valid 232259Z - 240030Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 508 continues.

SUMMARY...The tornado threat continues across remaining valid
portions of WW 508. A new tornado watch may be needed soon in parts
of eastern South Carolina and adjacent southern North Carolina.

DISCUSSION...Scattered convection continues across the WW area
currently. These storms are confined to broken lines along a
north-south surface boundary from near GSO south to near CAE and
cells/clusters ahead of this axis. The storms continue within a
strongly sheared, yet weakly buoyant airmass and continue to exhibit
occasional rotation and bowing segments. One area of particular
interest has emerged just southeast of CAE, where instability is
relatively maximized and 0-3km SRH exceeds 350 m2/s2 (sampled at the
WSR-88D at CLX). Storms within this region were moving northeast at
around 20-25 knots and will approach the southeastern extent of WW
508 within the next hour or so. Damaging wind gusts and a few
tornadoes remain possible with this activity - and a new Tornado
Watch will likely be needed by around 2330Z for downstream areas.

..Cook/Guyer.. 10/23/2017

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Mesoscale Discussion 1741
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0634 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Areas affected...Central North Carolina...Central and Southern
Virginia

Concerning...Tornado Watch 509...

Valid 232334Z - 240130Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 509 continues.

SUMMARY...A tornado threat will likely continue for several more
hours this evening as a line of thunderstorms moves across central
North Carolina and south-central Virginia. The overall severe threat
including a potential for wind damage is expected to become more
isolated later this evening.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a surface trough over
the southern Appalachian Mountains. A narrow line of thunderstorms
is ongoing just to the east of the trough with the moist sector
located to the east of the line from the Piedmont eastward to the
Atlantic Coast. The line of storms is being forced by a focused band
of large-scale ascent associated with a negatively-tilted
upper-level trough evident on water vapor imagery moving through the
southern Appalachians.

In addition, the RAP is analyzing the core of a 50 to 70 kt low to
mid-level jet max very near the line of thunderstorms. This along
with backed surface winds across much of WW 509 is creating strong
low-level level shear profiles which will be favorable for rotating
storms capable of producing tornadoes. The potential for tornadoes
should continue with the stronger parts of the line as it moves
eastward into a more moist airmass where surface dewpoints are in
the lower to mid 60s F. Wind damage will also be possible especially
with bowing segments within the line. The severe threat is expected
to become more isolated later this evening as instability drops off
across the region.

..Broyles/Guyer.. 10/23/2017

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Mesoscale Discussion 1742
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0957 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Areas affected...Eastern North Carolina...Southeast Virginia

Concerning...Tornado Watch 509...

Valid 240257Z - 240500Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 509 continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated tornado and wind damage threat will be possible
in the eastern part of WW 509 over the next couple of hours. A
marginal tornado threat will also exist along the southeastern edge
of the watch in southern North Carolina.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a trough extending
southward across central North Carolina into far eastern South
Carolina, along which several clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing.
Surface winds to the east of the trough are still
south-southeasterly with dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s F.
This is contributing to about 500 J/Kg of MLCAPE across much of
eastern North Carolina according to the RAP. In addition, low-level
shear is quite strong with an axis of 40 to 55 kt of flow near 850
mb located across eastern South Carolina and east-central North
Carolina. The Morehead City WSR-88D VWP appears to be sampling the
shear environment well, with 0-1 km shear at 35 kt and about 50 kt
of south-southwesterly flow at 1 km AGL. In response, an isolated
tornado threat may continue with the stronger thunderstorms that
move into east-central North Carolina and possibly into southeastern
Virginia over the next couple of hours. A marginal tornado and wind
damage threat should also extend southward into the Wilmington,
North Carolina area.

..Broyles/Guyer.. 10/24/2017

9 tornados se reportaron ayer entre Carolina del Norte y del Sur.
Dome, dome, dome..The life is a dome

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Ernest
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor Ernest » Mar Oct 24, 2017 6:20 pm

Temperaturas superiores a 40 grados en algunos puntos del sur de California, con récords para la época. Santa Ana lo hizo de nuevo.

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/recor ... t=yMko8zgl
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mateix
Mensajes: 4560
Registrado: Mié Abr 11, 2012 10:35 am

Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor mateix » Mar Oct 24, 2017 7:36 pm

Y la costa este no se queda atrás.
Sigue el tiempo cálido en la Gran Manzana, en el que probablemente sea el octubre más cálido de su historia (el récord previo en la estación Central Park es de 17º4 del 2007)

El día de hoy, por ejemplo, viene con una media de 21º8.

http://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?i ... enviar=Ver

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stormchaserAlberto
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor stormchaserAlberto » Mar Oct 24, 2017 10:20 pm

La misma vaguada que provocó tiempo severo en zonas de Oklahoma el finde, actualmente está afectado al nordeste de los Estados Unidos. Salió una nueva discusión a mesoescala por la probabilidad que se incremente la convección en zonas de Massachusetts, Long Island, Connecticut y Rhode Island, con el riesgo para ráfagas aisladas potencialmente dañinas. No es necesario una vigilancia.
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Mesoscale Discussion 1743
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0755 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2017

Areas affected...MA...CT...RI...Long Island NY

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 250055Z - 250200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Showers and a few thunderstorms will pose a marginal risk
of gusty or possibly damaging wind gusts over southern New England.
The threat is expected to be quite limited, with no watch expected.

DISCUSSION...A broken line of convection extends from off the NC
coast northward into Long Island/CT/MA. Some intensification has
occurred along the line in the last hour, with occasional lightning
strikes now indicated as far north as CT. Individual cells along
the line are moving northward at over 50 knots. The 00z OKX raob
showed very strong winds just above the ground, and enough MUCAPE to
maintain thunderstorm activity for a few hours as the line moves
across the discussion area. Present indications are that the severe
threat will be very limited and will not warrant a watch. However,
an isolated storm or two may develop bowing structures in the next
1-2 hours and pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts.

..Hart/Guyer.. 10/25/2017
Dome, dome, dome..The life is a dome

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mateix
Mensajes: 4560
Registrado: Mié Abr 11, 2012 10:35 am

Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor mateix » Jue Oct 26, 2017 6:39 pm

Sigue la joda en NYC.
La media hasta el día de hoy es de 19º.
Derechito al podio nomás...

https://www.wunderground.com/history/ai ... reqdb.wmo=

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Ernest
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Registrado: Vie Jul 17, 2009 10:54 pm
Ubicación: Villa Urquiza, Ciudad de Buenos Aires

Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor Ernest » Jue Oct 26, 2017 8:37 pm

mateix escribió:Sigue la joda en NYC.
La media hasta el día de hoy es de 19º.
Derechito al podio nomás...

https://www.wunderground.com/history/ai ... reqdb.wmo=


Se supone que en estos días tiene que ponerse bastante más fresco, igual me parece una locura... como 5 grados encima de la media (tomando como referencia el Central Park). En climas de influencia continental (y NYC lo es pese a estar cerca del océano) de todos modos esos récords deben ser más frecuentes.
Did you want to talk about the weather, or were you just making chitchat?

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