Seguimiento general en EEUU

Avatar de Usuario
stormchaserAlberto
Mensajes: 7301
Registrado: Jue Feb 20, 2014 2:34 am
Ubicación: Río Tercero,Córdoba.
Contactar:

Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor stormchaserAlberto » Sab Oct 28, 2017 7:16 pm

Por la tormenta tropical Philippe, sacaron una discusión a mesoescala por probables tornados para el sudeste de Florida.
Imagen
SPOILER - El siguiente texto está oculto. Presioná en la barra para mostrarlo.
Mesoscale Discussion 1744
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0134 PM CDT Sat Oct 28 2017

Areas affected...South FL and the FL Keys

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 281834Z - 282130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An increase in a tornado threat is expected later this
afternoon into the evening across the Florida Keys and south
Florida, as Tropical Depression #18 tracks to the north-northeast,
becoming a Tropical Storm as it approaches the northern coast of
west-central Cuba by 29/00Z, per NHC forecast. Tornado watch
issuance is not expected at this time, though trends will be
monitored for stronger low-level circulations with a somewhat
greater potential for watch issuance later this afternoon or early
evening.

DISCUSSION...Trends in radar imagery into this afternoon indicated a
northern convective band extending across far south FL to off the
southeast and southwest FL coasts, with embedded weak low-level
circulations attendant to episodic supercells. Key West WSR-88D
indicated additional bands of convection developing and moving
northward away from Cuba through the Florida Straits. The Key West
and Miami radars indicated transient, episodic low-level
circulations tracking toward the northwest and west-northwest,
respectively. Most of these circulations have been generally weak,
as supported by small hodograph curvature with the special 18Z KEY
sounding. However, eventual strengthening of southerly 850-mb winds
(40-50 kt between 21-00Z) within the eastern quadrant of the
tropical cyclone should support an increase in low-level shear, and
a somewhat greater tornado potential later this afternoon into the
evening. A tornado watch is not imminent in the short term, though
trends will be monitored for strengthening low-level winds and more
persistent, stronger offshore low-level circulation couplets
approaching land.

..Peters/Guyer.. 10/28/2017
Dome, dome, dome..The life is a dome

Avatar de Usuario
stormchaserAlberto
Mensajes: 7301
Registrado: Jue Feb 20, 2014 2:34 am
Ubicación: Río Tercero,Córdoba.
Contactar:

Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor stormchaserAlberto » Dom Oct 29, 2017 7:04 pm

Última discusión a mesoescala.
Imagen
SPOILER - El siguiente texto está oculto. Presioná en la barra para mostrarlo.
Mesoscale Discussion 1746
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Sun Oct 29 2017

Areas affected...Far eastern North Carolina...especially the Outer
Banks

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 290553Z - 290800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move northward
off the Atlantic into eastern North Carolina through the overnight.
A brief tornado could be possible, especially along coastal areas
and the Outer Banks.

DISCUSSION...Warm air advection, coupled with weak low-level
convergence, across eastern North Carolina has contributed to
development of showers and thunderstorms, despite most-unstable CAPE
values remaining at or below 500 J/kg. Ahead of this activity,
continued moistening of the low-levels will maintain or slightly
increase instability, despite the lack of any appreciable low-level
warming. This maintenance/potential increase of instability coupled
with continued low-level convergence, will maintain thunderstorm
potential through the overnight across eastern North Carolina.

Neutral low-level-lapse rates and the weak instability should limit
wind and hail potential. However, a brief tornado or two will be
possible, especially along coastal areas and the Outer Banks where
warm oceanic waters will contribute to slightly more favorable
instability. Additionally, storm-relative helicity may increase some
overnight as wind fields respond to ongoing cyclogenesis across the
western Carolinas. The overall limited nature of the potential
threat should preclude the need for a watch.

..Marsh/Grams.. 10/29/2017
Dome, dome, dome..The life is a dome

Avatar de Usuario
stormchaserAlberto
Mensajes: 7301
Registrado: Jue Feb 20, 2014 2:34 am
Ubicación: Río Tercero,Córdoba.
Contactar:

Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor stormchaserAlberto » Sab Nov 04, 2017 11:44 am

Bueno. Acá van un par de discusiones a mesoescala sobre los eventos de tiempo severo que se dieron entre el jueves y el viernes en algunas porciones del sur y medio oriente de los Estados Unidos.
Imagen
SPOILER - El siguiente texto está oculto. Presioná en la barra para mostrarlo.

Mesoscale Discussion 1747
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 PM CDT Thu Nov 02 2017

Areas affected...North-central/Eastern MS into western AL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 022052Z - 022245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...The potential for a supercell or two could increase
through late afternoon across north-central/eastern Mississippi into
far western Alabama, with at least a conditional risk for
hail/damaging winds and possibly even a tornado. A watch does not
seem likely given uncertainties regarding overall likelihood and
coverage.

DISCUSSION...Scattered showers (absence of lightning through 2045Z)
have persisted across north-central MS through the
early/mid-afternoon hours where the boundary layer continues to
gradually destabilize within a zone of differential heating related
to an abatement of early-day cloud cover. An eastward-moving
mid-level impulse will steadily cross the region and potentially
influence some updraft intensification as further low-level
moistening/destabilization occurs over the next couple of hours.

Somewhat stronger mid-level westerly winds accompanying the
aforementioned mid-level impulse will lead to wind profiles that are
increasingly supportive of supercells (35-40 kt effective shear).
Should convection further root/mature, with taller updrafts and
cloud-ground lightning as general proxies, concern would increase
for a supercell or two particularly across north-central/eastern MS.
If so, severe hail/wind could occur and a sufficiently moist
boundary layer (upper 60s F surface dewpoints) and adequate
low-level shear/SRH could possibly even support a brief tornado.

..Guyer.. 11/02/2017

Imagen
SPOILER - El siguiente texto está oculto. Presioná en la barra para mostrarlo.
Mesoscale Discussion 1748
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0731 PM CDT Thu Nov 02 2017

Areas affected...Southeast Missouri...Southern Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 030031Z - 030230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A marginal threat for hail and a few isolated strong wind
gusts will be possible over the next couple of hours in southern
Illinois and southeast Missouri. No weather watch is anticipated.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a cold front moving
southeastward through south-central Illinois and eastern to southern
Missouri. Convection is ongoing just behind the front in
south-central Illinois but is located ahead of the front in
southeast Missouri. An axis of moderate instability is located ahead
of the front where MLCAPE values are estimated near 1500 J/kg by the
RAP. As thunderstorm coverage increases over the next few hours,
surface temperatures and instability will slowly decrease. This will
keep any severe threat marginal. Effective shear of around 30 kt
along with marginally steep lapse rates in the mid-levels may be
enough for hail with the stronger updrafts. A few strong wind gusts
could also occur but a surface inversion will likely decrease this
threat by mid evening.

..Broyles/Thompson.. 11/03/2017

Imagen
SPOILER - El siguiente texto está oculto. Presioná en la barra para mostrarlo.
Mesoscale Discussion 1749
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 PM CDT Fri Nov 03 2017

Areas affected...Portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 031911Z - 032115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to develop this afternoon
across central/eastern Arkansas. A few storms may be capable of
large hail and damaging winds. While widespread severe weather is
not likely, conditions will be monitored for possible watch
issuance.

DISCUSSION...Evident in water-vapor imagery, the arrival of ascent
associated with a shortwave trough (moving east from OK into AR) is
fostering initial thunderstorm development across parts of Arkansas
this afternoon. Ample insolation across the open warm sector and
surface dew points in the upper 60s/lower 70s have promoted moderate
buoyancy, characterized by MLCAPE values upwards of 1500 J/kg. While
low-level flow remains weak with a lack of a stronger synoptic
response, KLZK VWP data sampled modest mid-level westerlies around
30-35 kt. Combined with a veering profile with height, effective
shear will be marginally favorable for occasional updraft
organization, enabling isolated large hail. Additionally, dry
mid-level air and propagation focused along an
east/southeastward-extending front may yield sufficient upscale
growth for a few damaging gusts, as storms head towards the
Mississippi River. If storms exhibit adequate organization later
this afternoon, a watch may be considered.

..Picca/Hart.. 11/03/2017

Imagen
SPOILER - El siguiente texto está oculto. Presioná en la barra para mostrarlo.
Mesoscale Discussion 1750
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0521 PM CDT Fri Nov 03 2017

Areas affected...Southeast Arkansas...Northwest Mississippi

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 510...

Valid 032221Z - 040015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 510
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and wind damage will be possible
through early to mid evening across southeastern Arkansas and
northwest Mississippi. As convection continues to strengthen along
the instability axis, the severe threat should become greatest
across the eastern part of WW 0510.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a cold front over
eastern and central Arkansas extending eastward into far northern
Mississippi. A moist airmass is located to the south of the front
where a pocket of moderate instability with MLCAPE values around
2000 J/kg is analyzed by the RAP. In addition, water vapor imagery
shows a shortwave trough over far northeast Texas. Large-scale
ascent associated with this feature along with the instability will
maintain scattered convective coverage across WW 510 over the next 2
to 4 hours. Regional WSR-88D VWPs show moderate deep-layer shear
with 25 to 35 kt of southwesterly flow in the mid-levels. This will
be enough for storm organization and a severe threat over the next
few hours. A wind damage threat should accompany the stronger
downdrafts. Also, cold air aloft ahead of the upper-level trough
along with the instability will support an isolated large hail
threat with rotating cells.

..Broyles/Thompson.. 11/03/2017

Imagen
SPOILER - El siguiente texto está oculto. Presioná en la barra para mostrarlo.
Mesoscale Discussion 1751
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Fri Nov 03 2017

Areas affected...Central and Northwest Mississippi...Far Southeast
Arkansas and Far Northeast Louisiana

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 510...

Valid 040059Z - 040300Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 510
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat will become more isolated over the next
couple of hours as storms move to the eastern edge of WW 510. A
marginal severe threat may affect areas just to the east and
southeast of the watch. The threat should be too minimal to warrant
issuing a new watch.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows a cluster of strong
thunderstorms from near the Mississippi River in far northeastern
Louisiana northeastward into northwestern Mississippi. These storms
are located on the western and northern edge of a pocket of moderate
instability according to the RAP where MLCAPE values are estimated
from 1000 to 1500 J/kg. This along with moderate deep-layer shear
evident on regional WSR-88D VWPs will continue to support an
isolated severe threat over the next couple of hours. However, the
threat should become marginal as instability decreases across the
region. For this reason, new weather watch issuance is not
anticipated.

..Broyles/Thompson.. 11/04/2017

Para hoy, no se espera tiempo severo, cosa que sí sucederá mañana por el medio oriente.
Imagen
Probabilidades de tiempo severo. Hay una zona con riesgo significativo.
Imagen
Discusión.
SPOILER - El siguiente texto está oculto. Presioná en la barra para mostrarlo.
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Sat Nov 04 2017

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
IL/IN AND NORTHWESTERN OH...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
SLIGHT RISK...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail,
damaging winds, and a few tornadoes may occur across parts of the
Lower Great Lakes, Midwest, and Ohio Valley regions on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
A split flow pattern aloft will continue over much of the
western/central CONUS on Sunday, with modest 500 mb height falls
(around 30 dm per 12 hours) forecast to occur across the mid/upper
MS Valley into the Great Lakes region. A strong southern-stream
mid/upper-level jet will provide large-scale lift and should
encourage convective development across parts of the lower Great
Lakes, OH Valley, and mid MS Valley by Sunday afternoon. An elevated
mixed layer with steep mid-level lapse rates (around 7-8 C/km in the
700-500-mb layer) originating from the central/southern Plains will
overspread these regions through Sunday evening.

At the surface, a broad and moist warm sector will be in place
across east TX into the lower MS Valley, extending northward into
the mid MS Valley, OH Valley, and Lower Great Lakes to the south of
a warm front. Surface dewpoints reaching into at least the low to
mid 60s should be common throughout the warm sector Sunday
afternoon. A weak surface low is forecast to develop northeastward
along a warm/cold frontal triple point from the vicinity of eastern
KS/western MO early Sunday to northern IN/southern lower MI by
Sunday evening. A trailing cold front will progress southeastward
parts of the mid MS and OH Valleys through the day, likely
accelerating late in the period.

...Lower Great Lakes/Midwest into the OH and Mid MS Valleys...
Strong effective shear of 40-55 kt associated with the
southern-stream mid/upper-level jet will likely be present
along/south of the front mentioned above. Supercell thunderstorms
may be favored with initial development along the warm front or
within the open warm sector to the east/northeast of the surface
low. Given the steep mid-level lapse rates and moist low-level
airmass that will be present, MLCAPE may increase to around
1500-2000 J/kg by late Sunday afternoon, even with only modest
diurnal heating forecast.

Scattered large hail, some of which may be significant, could occur
with initial supercell development, particularly across parts of
central/eastern IL into western/central IN where buoyancy is
expected to be greatest. The tornado potential should be maximized
along the warm front through Sunday afternoon as long as the
convective mode remains at least semi-discrete. Here, low-level
winds should be backed to a more southerly direction, locally
enhancing low-level helicity and updraft rotation. Eventual upscale
growth into one or more bowing line segments may occur from late
Sunday afternoon into the evening as the cold front begins to
accelerate southeastward, and the primary severe threat should
eventually transition to damaging winds. The accelerating cold front
may tend to undercut ongoing convection by Sunday night, and with
decreasing instability due to the loss of diurnal heating, the
overall severe threat should gradually wane with eastward/southward
extent late in the period.

00Z GFS/NAM and 12Z ECMWF are in better agreement with the placement
of the surface warm front Sunday afternoon, which increases
confidence in the northern extent of appreciable surface-based
thunderstorm potential and corresponding severe risk. The gradient
of severe thunderstorm probabilities has therefore been tightened
across far eastern IA/northern IL and southern/central Lower MI. The
potential remains for early-day elevated convection across parts of
IL/IN/OH owing to a strong southwesterly low-level jet. But this
activity, if it develops, will likely remain isolated and should not
substantially impact/delay destabilization of the warm sector across
this region.

..Gleason.. 11/04/2017
Dome, dome, dome..The life is a dome

Avatar de Usuario
stormchaserAlberto
Mensajes: 7301
Registrado: Jue Feb 20, 2014 2:34 am
Ubicación: Río Tercero,Córdoba.
Contactar:

Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor stormchaserAlberto » Dom Nov 05, 2017 1:35 pm

Tiempo severo del bueno parece hoy. Extendieron el área de ENHANCED hasta Ohio. Afuera Chicago. Todos los riesgos asociados.
Imagen
% de tornados.
SPOILER - El siguiente texto está oculto. Presioná en la barra para mostrarlo.
Imagen

Vientos severos.
SPOILER - El siguiente texto está oculto. Presioná en la barra para mostrarlo.
Imagen

Granizo severo. Hay una zona con riesgo significativo.
SPOILER - El siguiente texto está oculto. Presioná en la barra para mostrarlo.
Imagen

Discusión. En resumen, un frente cálido se está desplazando al norte, desestabilizando en Indiana y algunas porciones de Illinois, donde ya se están observando algunas tormentas fuertes a intensas. Durante la tarde, un frente frío va a estar avanzando en la región, causando una nueva y fuerte activación aislada en la región, con algunas superceldas. Finalmente, todas estas celdas van a coverger en una línea con vientos intensos o severos que va a estar barriendo una porción de Misuri e Illinois.
SPOILER - El siguiente texto está oculto. Presioná en la barra para mostrarlo.
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1015 AM CST Sun Nov 05 2017

Valid 051630Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
IL...IN...AND OH...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID MS
VALLEY INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID MS
VALLEY INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a
few tornadoes will be possible from parts of the mid Mississippi
Valley east-northeastward into the lower Great Lakes this afternoon
into tonight.

...IN/OH/PA...
Have expanded the EHH risk area eastward to include more of central
and eastern OH. Trends in surface observations and satellite
imagery suggest destabilization will continue over this region, with
12z CAM solutions indicating robust thunderstorm development through
the afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings show substantial low
level wind speeds and vertical shear, promoting a squall line with
embedded bowing/rotating storms capable of damaging winds and
isolated tornadoes. Large hail may also occur in any supercells
that can become established. The threat should slowly diminish as
the storms move into a progressively more stable air mass over
western PA.

...IL/IN...
Another area of intense thunderstorm development is expected this
afternoon along the primary cold front sagging into parts of MO/IL.
Most model guidance suggests development will begin near the STL
area and spread eastward across parts of southern IL into central
and southern IN. Thermodynamic parameters will be stronger in this
area compared to farther northeast, promoting a greater risk of
large (possibly very large) hail. Model guidance along suggests a
slightly higher probability of discrete supercells in this area,
with a few tornadoes expected. Eventually, these storms will also
congeal into a squall line as they build southeastward toward the OH
river.

..Hart/Cook.. 11/05/2017

Veremos con qué sorpresa nos encontramos en la actualización de las 20z(17HOA).
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Les dejo dos discusiones a mesoescala por las tormentas que se están dando desde temprano entre Illinois, Indiana y ahora Ohio por el frente cálido.
Imagen
SPOILER - El siguiente texto está oculto. Presioná en la barra para mostrarlo.
Mesoscale Discussion 1752
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0604 AM CST Sun Nov 05 2017

Areas affected...Central IL...Central IN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 051204Z - 051430Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage will increase over the next hour or
two. Some small hail is possible but coverage of severe
thunderstorms will be limited by marginal instability.

DISCUSSION...11Z surface analysis places a low near STL with a warm
front extending northeastward through central IL and into northwest
OH (roughly along a STL to LAF to FWA to FDY line). Warm advection
has persisted within this broad frontal zone throughout the night,
helping to moisten the dry layer observed between 850 and 700 mb on
the 00Z ILX sounding. This warm advection is expected to continue as
a southwesterly flow aloft (associated with shortwave trough
currently near the NE/IA border) remains over the region.
Additionally, the progression of this shortwave trough as well as
the eastward progress of an upper level jet streak will contribute
to increasing large-scale forcing for ascent. These factors are
expected to result in an increase in thunderstorm activity over the
next hour or two.

Given the stable low levels, this thunderstorm activity is expected
to be elevated for much of the morning. Thermodynamic environment
characterized by moist low levels (i.e. surface dewpoints in the mid
to upper 60s) and steep mid-level lapse rates will support modest
instability. Current mesoanalysis estimates MUCAPE across the region
is around 500 to 1000 J/kg. In addition to this instability, a
strongly sheared environment, largely a result of strong speed
shear, is in place. Recent ILX VAD sampled 0-6 km bulk shear over 50
kt. This type of environment supports rotating thunderstorms and
perhaps some small hail (i.e. less than 1 inch in diameter). Overall
severe potential will be mitigated by limited instability but trends
across the region will be monitored closely.

..Mosier/Edwards.. 11/05/2017

En este último, se habla de la probabilidad de lanzar una vigilancia por tormenta severa por los vientos que tienen asociadas las celdas. También se habla de algunos segmentos en forma de arco.
Imagen
SPOILER - El siguiente texto está oculto. Presioná en la barra para mostrarlo.
Mesoscale Discussion 1753
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1029 AM CST Sun Nov 05 2017

Areas affected...northern OH

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 051629Z - 051800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe gusts (50-65 mph) are possible
across northwest Ohio with the threat for damaging winds potentially
moving along the south shore of Lake Erie (I-80/90 corridor) and
approaching Cleveland this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Radar trends over the past 1-2 hours have shown a
strengthening in thunderstorm activity over northeast IN and a
transitioning from cellular to embedded cellular. Northwest OH is
located in a warm frontal zone with lower-mid 60s degrees F
dewpoints and surface observations also indicate moisture is
increasing across northeast OH (rising from the upper 50s to lower
60s the past few hours). Gradual diurnal heating coupled with the
low-level moisture will yield weak buoyancy across the Lake Erie
vicinity this afternoon in the presence of a strong wind profile.

Expecting further convective mode evolution to a bowing segment or
two with the risk for damaging winds to correspondingly increase.
There is uncertainty in terms of the spatial size of a strong/severe
linear band. If it becomes increasing probable a larger linear band
will materialize (i.e., more than a 2-county-length bowing segment),
then a severe thunderstorm watch will become more strongly
considered.

..Smith/Hart.. 11/05/2017

Ya está al caer un tornado watch para el sur de Indiana. Se están empezando a formar algunas superceldas en el sector cálido del frente.
Imagen
SPOILER - El siguiente texto está oculto. Presioná en la barra para mostrarlo.
Mesoscale Discussion 1754
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1048 AM CST Sun Nov 05 2017

Areas affected...portions of southern Indiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 051648Z - 051745Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A warm-sector supercell risk is increasing across the
lower Wabash Valley. A tornado watch will likely be issued soon.

DISCUSSION...Radar trends over the past 30 minutes have shown the
development of a sustained/robust updraft over Lawrence County, IL.
The airmass downstream over this intensifying thunderstorm is
moist/adequately unstable with surface dewpoints in the middle 60s
degrees F and temperatures are slowly rising into the lower 70s.
Objective analysis fields indicated around 750 J/kg MLCAPE and KVWX
VAD data shows a strong wind profile supportive of low-level updraft
rotation. Given the low CAPE/high shear setup, expecting a gradual
intensification of warm sector storms and low-level mesocyclones
potentially capable of a few tornadoes.

..Smith/Hart.. 11/05/2017

Imagen
SPOILER - El siguiente texto está oculto. Presioná en la barra para mostrarlo.
Mesoscale Discussion 1755
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1109 AM CST Sun Nov 05 2017

Areas affected...Far east-central Missouri...much of
central/southern Illinois...and far west-central Indiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 051709Z - 051815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Convection increases and just ahead of a
southeastward-moving cold front, with a risk of hail, wind, and a
few tornadoes. A WW is being considered for portions of the
discussion area.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar/satellite imagery suggest a general uptick
in convective intensity across central and east-central Illinois
over the past hour. These storms are in an environment
characterized by 1500-2500 J/kg MUCAPE and strong vertical wind
shear throughout the lower and middle levels favorable for storm
organization. Current storms along a line from near DEC to near
CMI are exhibiting linear organization along a cold front in that
vicinity - and damaging wind gusts and hail will become increasingly
likely over the course of the afternoon. Storms ahead of the front
may exhibit a more cellular mode, resulting in a threat for large
hail and perhaps a few tornadoes. Convective trends will be
monitored for a possible WW issuance.

..Cook/Hart.. 11/05/2017

------------------------------------------------------------
Ya salió el primer watch del día. En este caso, por tornados. Abarca partes de Indiana y Ohio.
Imagen
SPOILER - El siguiente texto está oculto. Presioná en la barra para mostrarlo.
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 511
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1210 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Central Indiana
Northern and Western Ohio
Lake Erie

* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 1210 PM until
700 PM EST.

* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes possible
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 2 inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are intensifying over Indiana, and will
track eastward across the watch this afternoon and early evening.
Damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are the main threats.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles
east and west of a line from 15 miles southeast of Bloomington IN to
45 miles west northwest of Cleveland OH. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
storm motion vector 25035.

...Hart
Dome, dome, dome..The life is a dome

Avatar de Usuario
stormchaserAlberto
Mensajes: 7301
Registrado: Jue Feb 20, 2014 2:34 am
Ubicación: Río Tercero,Córdoba.
Contactar:

Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor stormchaserAlberto » Dom Nov 05, 2017 3:35 pm

Habemus hook. Estoy viendo si confirman ya algún tornado.
Imagen
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Imagen
SPOILER - El siguiente texto está oculto. Presioná en la barra para mostrarlo.
Mesoscale Discussion 1756
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 PM CST Sun Nov 05 2017

Areas affected...west-central and central IN

Concerning...Tornado Watch 511...

Valid 051836Z - 051930Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 511 continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated gusts 50-65 mph capable of scattered wind damage
are possible over the next 1-2 hours from US 231 east to the I-69
corridor.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows an organizing north-south oriented
squall line across the Wabash Valley in west-central IN. This band
of storms will move east-northeast around 40-kt. Surface
observations ahead of the line show middle 60s degrees F dewpoints
and temperatures near 70 F---contributing to weak buoyancy. Surface
flow has veered to south-southwest during the past few hours and
this is reducing the hodograph size which will likely tend to limit
overall tornado potential. Nonetheless, it appears the severe risk
will increase concurrent with the expected intensification of the
squall line as it moves east across central IN to the north of I-70.
Scattered damaging winds will be the primary threat.

..Smith.. 11/05/2017

------------------------------------------------------
Otro tornado watch.
Imagen
SPOILER - El siguiente texto está oculto. Presioná en la barra para mostrarlo.
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 512
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 PM CST Sun Nov 5 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Central Illinois
East-central Missouri

* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 1235 PM until
700 PM CST.

* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes possible
Widespread large hail likely with isolated very large hail
events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are forming along and ahead of a cold front
sagging through the watch area. Large hail will be possible in the
strongest cells, along with some risk for a few tornadoes.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles
north and south of a line from 5 miles north northeast of Terre
Haute IN to 55 miles west northwest of Farmington MO. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 511...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
storm motion vector 25035.

...Hart
Dome, dome, dome..The life is a dome

Avatar de Usuario
stormchaserAlberto
Mensajes: 7301
Registrado: Jue Feb 20, 2014 2:34 am
Ubicación: Río Tercero,Córdoba.
Contactar:

Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor stormchaserAlberto » Dom Nov 05, 2017 7:50 pm

Watches vigentes.
Imagen
SPOILER - El siguiente texto está oculto. Presioná en la barra para mostrarlo.
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 513
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
345 PM CST Sun Nov 5 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southern Illinois
Southwest Indiana
Western Kentucky
Southeast Missouri

* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 345 PM until
1000 PM CST.

* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely
Widespread large hail likely with isolated very large hail
events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Intense thunderstorms will continue to develop over
southeast MO and spread across the watch area this afternoon and
evening. Large hail is the main concern, but conditions are also
favorable for a few tornadoes in any persistent supercells.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles
north and south of a line from 45 miles northwest of Poplar Bluff MO
to 20 miles north northeast of Owensboro KY. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 511...WW 512...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 25035.

...Hart

Imagen
SPOILER - El siguiente texto está oculto. Presioná en la barra para mostrarlo.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 514
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
525 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northeastern Ohio
Western Pennsylvania
The northern West Virginia Panhandle
Lake Erie

* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 525 PM until
1000 PM EST.

* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...A well-developed bowing line across north central Ohio
will continue quickly eastward into northeastern Ohio and
western/northwestern Pennsylvania over the next few hours. Damaging
winds will be the primary threat, though an isolated tornado or two
could occur with circulations in the line, primarily in northeastern
Ohio this evening.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles east and west of a line from 10 miles north northwest
of Erie PA to 40 miles west southwest of Wheeling WV. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 511...WW 512...WW 513...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector
27050.

...Thompson

Imagen
SPOILER - El siguiente texto está oculto. Presioná en la barra para mostrarlo.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 515
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
630 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southern Indiana
Extreme northern Kentucky
Southwestern Ohio

* Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 630 PM
until 100 AM EST.

* Primary threats include...
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Storms are in the process of congealing into more linear
structures and this should persist into the early overnight hours
along a cold front. There will be the possibility of a tornado or
two in the next couple of hours will lingering supercell structures
or embedded circulations within the line. However, occasional
damaging gusts will be the primary threat before the storms weaken
toward 05-06z.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45
statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles south
southwest of Bloomington IN to 30 miles east southeast of Columbus
OH. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 511...WW 512...WW
513...WW 514...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
28040.

...Thompson

---------------------------------------------------------------
Últimas discusiones a mesoescala.
Imagen
SPOILER - El siguiente texto está oculto. Presioná en la barra para mostrarlo.
Mesoscale Discussion 1757
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0129 PM CST Sun Nov 05 2017

Areas affected...west-central OH

Concerning...Tornado Watch 511...

Valid 051929Z - 052000Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 511 continues.

SUMMARY...Mercer County, OH tornadic supercell will continue to move
east-northeast in a favorable environment as it approaches the I-75
corridor in the next hour.

DISCUSSION...KIWX radar data show a longer track tornadic
circulation in Mercer County, OH. The surface observation at
Greenville, OH showed winds slightly backing to southerly in the
past hour---effectively enlarging hodograph size. The middle 60s
dewpoints within the strong low-level shear environment will
continue to support and be favorable for tornado potential for the
next hour or more as the storm moves to I-75. This storm will
likely continue to be unimpeded by other convection for the next 1-2
hour or more given its warm sector placement ahead of a squall line
over north-central IN. The primary hazards will be a tornado and
damaging winds.

..Smith.. 11/05/2017

Imagen
SPOILER - El siguiente texto está oculto. Presioná en la barra para mostrarlo.
Mesoscale Discussion 1758
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 PM CST Sun Nov 05 2017

Areas affected...Southeastern Missouri...southern and central
Illinois...and a small part of western Kentucky

Concerning...Tornado Watch 512...

Valid 052051Z - 052245Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 512 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across much of WW 512. A new
tornado watch is being considered south and east of WW 512.

DISCUSSION...Scattered storms continue to develop primarily along a
southeastward-moving cold front along northern portions of the
discussion area. A few of these storms have produced severe wind
gusts and large hail - particularly near the Saint Louis
Metropolitan Area. Northeast of STL, storms have been mostly
elevated along and just behind the cold front, although they may
become surface based as they forward-propagate eastward toward
greater surface-based instability over the next couple of hours.

Farther southwest, additional convection has continued to increase
along and ahead of the cold front. A greater supercell threat may
emerge with this activity given its more cellular mode, moderate
surface-based instability, and veering wind fields. These cells
will likely pose a threat for all modes of severe over the next few
hours and eventually extend east/south of WW 512. A new tornado
watch will be needed in these areas relatively soon.

..Cook/Hart.. 11/05/2017

Imagen
SPOILER - El siguiente texto está oculto. Presioná en la barra para mostrarlo.
Mesoscale Discussion 1759
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 PM CST Sun Nov 05 2017

Areas affected...west-central into north-central OH and south shore
of Lake Erie

Concerning...Tornado Watch 511...

Valid 052057Z - 052200Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 511 continues.

SUMMARY...Several smaller-scale corridors of scattered damaging
winds appear increasingly probable across north-central OH prior to
sunset.

DISCUSSION...An increasingly mature/organized band of storms over
northwest OH extending southwestward into east-central IN will
continue to move east around 50 kt. The airmass downstream over
north-central OH has preconditioned to become more favorable for
damaging gusts over the past few hours with temperatures steady in
the upper 60s degrees F and dewpoints in the lower 60s F. A couple
of line embedded shear zones and earlier supercell structures have
been ingested into the squall line and will likely translate to
areas where damaging winds will tend to be more probable. Swaths of
50-65 mph gusts will concentrate near the decayed but remnant
circulations as the line sweeps east across north-central OH during
the next few hours.

..Smith.. 11/05/2017

Imagen
SPOILER - El siguiente texto está oculto. Presioná en la barra para mostrarlo.
Mesoscale Discussion 1760
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0351 PM CST Sun Nov 05 2017

Areas affected...northeast OH and western PA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 052151Z - 052345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated damaging gust risk will likely develop as a
squall line moves into northeast OH from the west.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a squall line over north-central OH
moving east around 55 kt. ASOS measured gusts from this
thunderstorm band have recorded gusts ranging from 36 kt at
Wapakoneta, 39 kt at Findlay, and 43 kt at Lima. Widespread winds
of 45-55 mph have likely occurred during the past hour based on
these observations and it seems probable this will continue to
localized higher gusts of 55-65 mph. The airmass ahead of the line
is moist with dewpoints in the lower 60s degrees F and marginally
unstable. Given the development of an attendant MCV and
organized/mature rear inflow jet to the squall line, it will move
into northeast OH and eventually western portions of PA in a few
hours. A risk for isolated damaging winds will likely accompany the
squall line.

..Smith/Hart.. 11/05/2017

Imagen
SPOILER - El siguiente texto está oculto. Presioná en la barra para mostrarlo.
Mesoscale Discussion 1761
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0458 PM CST Sun Nov 05 2017

Areas affected...central and southern Indiana through central and
southern Ohio

Concerning...Tornado Watch 511...

Valid 052258Z - 060000Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 511 continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for severe storms is expected to persist into the
evening. The primary risk should transition to damaging wind, but a
couple of tornadoes will remain possible. Therefore tornado watch
511 is expected to be replaced by another WW before its expiration
time of 00Z.

DISCUSSION...Quasi-linear bands of storms persist from a part of
southern IN through central OH. Latest objective analysis shows
MLCAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg in this region with weaker
instability with eastward extent into OH. A southwesterly low-level
jet will strengthen to near 60 kt this evening within pre-frontal
warm sector in association with corridor of height falls
accompanying a progressive shortwave trough. Thus large 0-2 km
hodographs and strong deep layer shear will continue to support the
potential for embedded organized structures within the quasi-linear
convective bands. Despite increasingly marginal instability, the
strong kinematic environment will maintain some risk for organized
severe storms including bowing segments and embedded supercell
structures into the evening.

..Dial/Thompson.. 11/05/2017

Imagen
SPOILER - El siguiente texto está oculto. Presioná en la barra para mostrarlo.
Mesoscale Discussion 1762
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0606 PM CST Sun Nov 05 2017

Areas affected...extreme eastern Ohio through western Pennsylvania

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 514...

Valid 060006Z - 060130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 514
continues.

SUMMARY...Line of strong to severe storms should persist until
around 02Z into western PA followed by a rapid decrease in
intensity. Damaging wind remains the primary threat, but a brief
tornado cannot be ruled out. Additional downstream counties may be
added to the watch in the Pittsburg forecast area, but an additional
WW is not anticipated at this time.

DISCUSSION...Early this evening a line of strong to severe storms
extends along the OH/PA border moving east near 50 kt. The line is
embedded within very strong wind profiles with large 0-2 km
hodographs and 50+ kt effective bulk shear. Occasional bowing
segments and meso-vortices continue to be observed, and the threat
for damaging wind will persist next couple hours through western PA.
However, surface analysis shows a rapid decrease in theta-e across
central PA where temperatures are only in the 50s F. The fast line
movement will outpace any boundary layer recovery associated with
the southwesterly low-level jet. Therefore this activity will likely
undergo a rapid decrease in intensity by 02Z as it approaches
central PA.

..Dial.. 11/06/2017

Imagen
SPOILER - El siguiente texto está oculto. Presioná en la barra para mostrarlo.
Mesoscale Discussion 1763
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0607 PM CST Sun Nov 05 2017

Areas affected...southeastern Missouri...southern Illinois...far
southwestern Indiana...western Kentucky

Concerning...Tornado Watch 512...513...

Valid 060007Z - 060200Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 512, 513 continues.

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are slowly advancing east-southeastward
across the area ahead of a cold front. While these storms have some
tornado and hail potential, the primary severe weather threat will
likely transition to damaging winds. Tornado Watch 512 will be
allowed to expire at 0100Z, as storms move into downstream watches.

DISCUSSION...Isolated severe thunderstorms across the area have
shown gradual signs of weakening over the past couple of hours. In
addition, storms have also been trending from a discrete mode to
more of a linear mode with time. As a result, the primary severe
weather threat is expected to transition to damaging winds,
especially if the storms are able to develop an organized cold pool.
However, given the sufficient instability and strong low-level shear
across the area, a tornado cannot be ruled out for line segments
that become oriented in a north-south fashion.

..Jirak.. 11/06/2017

----------------------------------------------------------------
Daños de tornado cerca de Portland, Indiana.
Imagen
Imagen
Dome, dome, dome..The life is a dome

Avatar de Usuario
stormchaserAlberto
Mensajes: 7301
Registrado: Jue Feb 20, 2014 2:34 am
Ubicación: Río Tercero,Córdoba.
Contactar:

Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor stormchaserAlberto » Dom Nov 05, 2017 11:03 pm

Actualización para esta noche. Apenas riesgo SLGT o leve entre Pennsylvania, Ohio, Kentucky, sur de Indiana, de Illinois y sudeste de Misuri.
Imagen
% de tornados. Apenas un 5% entre Ohio, sur de Indiana y de Illinois, Kentucky y extremo sudeste de Misuri.
SPOILER - El siguiente texto está oculto. Presioná en la barra para mostrarlo.
Imagen

Viento.
SPOILER - El siguiente texto está oculto. Presioná en la barra para mostrarlo.
Imagen

Granizo.
SPOILER - El siguiente texto está oculto. Presioná en la barra para mostrarlo.
Imagen

Discusión.
SPOILER - El siguiente texto está oculto. Presioná en la barra para mostrarlo.
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0649 PM CST Sun Nov 05 2017

Valid 060100Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND FAR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS NORTHEASTWARD INTO OHIO AND
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OUTSIDE OF THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a
couple tornadoes will continue from parts of the mid Mississippi
Valley east-northeastward into the lower Great Lakes this evening
into tonight.

...Mid Mississippi Valley/Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes/Western
Pennsylvania...
The latest water vapor imagery shows a subtle shortwave trough
moving across the mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold
front is moving southeastward across southeastern Missouri extending
northeastward into central Indiana and northwest Ohio. One
continuous line segment is located in southeast Missouri and
southern Illinois where moderate instability is analyzed by the RAP.
Another continuous line segment is located from south-central
Indiana into central Ohio where instability is a bit weaker. Both
line segments are located in a strongly sheared environment. The
WSR-88D VWP at Wilmington, Ohio and Louisville, Kentucky show about
50 kt of 0-6 km shear with 45 to 50 kt of south-southwesterly flow
near 1 km AGL. This should help maintain a wind damage threat with
the faster moving bowing line segments. The strong low-level shear
environment should also be favorable for a couple tornadoes
associated with rotating cells embedded in the line. The tornado
threat and potential for large hail should be greatest with
supercells ahead of the front across southern Illinois and southern
Indiana (see MCD 1763). Further to the east in western Pennsylvania,
a line segment with a couple bowing structures is ongoing. This line
should be associated with a threat for isolated wind damage and hail
over the next one to two hours before moving into a stable airmass
(see MCD 1762).

..Broyles.. 11/06/2017

Se actualiza de vuelta a las o6z(03HOA).
-----------------------------------------------------------------
En el día de la fecha, se reportaron en total 9 tornados entre Indiana, Ohio e Illinois. En total, hay 129 reportes de tiempo severo.
Imagen
Dome, dome, dome..The life is a dome

Avatar de Usuario
stormchaserAlberto
Mensajes: 7301
Registrado: Jue Feb 20, 2014 2:34 am
Ubicación: Río Tercero,Córdoba.
Contactar:

Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor stormchaserAlberto » Lun Nov 06, 2017 10:31 am

Algo de tiempo severo hoy en dos zonas con riesgo marginal. Viento y granizo los riesgos principales.
Imagen
Viento.
SPOILER - El siguiente texto está oculto. Presioná en la barra para mostrarlo.
Imagen

Granizo.
SPOILER - El siguiente texto está oculto. Presioná en la barra para mostrarlo.
Imagen

Discusión.
SPOILER - El siguiente texto está oculto. Presioná en la barra para mostrarlo.
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0653 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2017

Valid 061300Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
NORTHERN/CENTRAL VA TO THE DELMARVA REGION...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS
TO PORTIONS OF KY/TN...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur from northern Virginia
across the Delmarva Peninsula, as well as from the Ozarks to parts
of Tennessee and Kentucky.

...Synopsis...
In mid/upper levels, a well-defined, positively tilted trough is
apparent in moisture-channel imagery from the Canadian Rockies of
the southern BC/AB border area southwestward across OR and extreme
northwestern CA. Downstream and equatorward from that trough, a
broad area of fast, mostly zonal flow aloft is forecast over much of
the contiguous U.S. this period. Embedded within that flow field, a
low-amplitude shortwave trough and east-west vorticity banner is
located over southern portions of IL/IN/OH. This perturbation
forecast to consolidate somewhat and move eastward to northeastern
VA and MD by 00Z, then offshore NJ and the Delmarva Peninsula around
03Z.

At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a cold front across northern/
western NY southwestward over southeastern OH, western TN, the
Arklatex area, and north-central TX, becoming quasistationary in an
arc from near ABI-CVS across northeastern NM. By 00Z, the cold
front should reach eastern New England, eastern VA, and northern MS,
becoming wavy/quasistationary from there westward across north TX
and northeastern NM. By 12Z, the cold front should be offshore New
England and the Mid-Atlantic, extending from coastal NC westward to
a weak frontal-wave low over mid TN, and moving southward again
across the Arklatex and northern/central TX.

...Northern/central VA to Delmarva: Afternoon/early evening...
Widely scattered to scattered convection is expected to develop this
afternoon near the cold front as it crosses northern VA, and as the
large-scale DCVA/lift related to the mid/upper-level shortwave
trough reaches the area. Thunderstorms should strengthen and move
across the Potomac River and Chesapeake Bay regions before weakening
and moving offshore. The main concern will be isolated damaging
winds approaching severe limits, amidst substantially unidirectional
deep-layer wind profiles and 40-45 kt effective-shear magnitudes.

Buoyancy will be weak but potentially sufficient for a marginal
severe threat, with a narrow prefrontal corridor of MLCAPE 400-800
J/kg sampled by a predominance of model forecast soundings. The
area of interest is bounded on the north by lack of sufficient
instability, the west by weaker heating/buoyancy along with early
timing, and the south by lack of more substantial convergence/lift.

...Ozarks to portions of KY/TN...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may produce hail near
severe limits in the next couple hours over potions of western/
north-central AR as the remnants of the nocturnal LLJ hoists
suitably moist parcels to LFC, amidst favorable deep shear. See SPC
mesoscale discussion 1766 for more near-term details.

Otherwise, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in an
episodic manner through tonight -- but primarily this afternoon and
evening -- and move generally eastward across this region, mostly
behind the front. Isolated large hail is possible. Some of the
rich boundary-layer moisture upstream, south of the front and over
the western Gulf coastal plain, will be advected northeastward atop
the frontal zone, to the east-northeast of a wave low expected to
ripple along the front through southeastern OK and western AR.

Although no substantial upper wave/forcing is evident, net large-
scale lift will arise via the warm advection, with increasingly
moist parcels being lifted isentropically to LFC. Forecast
soundings suggest the resultant steepening of lapse rates and
increase in inflow-layer theta-e will boost elevated MUCAPE
1000-1500 J/kg, beneath the fast mid/upper-level flow contributing
to 40-55 kt effective-shear magnitudes. Similar deep shear and
MUCAPE around 1500 J/kg already is evident on the morning LZK RAOB,
just north of the front and just upstream from much of the outlook
area.

..Edwards/Mosier.. 11/06/2017

Se actualiza nuevamente a las 16:30z(13:30HOA).
---------------------------------------------------------------
Mientras, ya se lanzó la primera discusión a mesoescala del día.
Imagen
SPOILER - El siguiente texto está oculto. Presioná en la barra para mostrarlo.
Mesoscale Discussion 1766
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0649 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2017

Areas affected...Northwest/north-central/central AR

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 061249Z - 061445Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated hail is possible for the next hour or so with a
cluster of thunderstorms moving east-northeastward across
northwest/north-central AR.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery has shown a strengthening trend
with the thunderstorms that developed within the warm-air advection
regime across northwest AR. 12Z LZK sounding sampled over 1500 J/kg
of MUCAPE and recent mesoanalysis suggest this instability stretches
up into northern AR. Environment across the region is also strongly
sheared with the 12Z LZK sounding reporting over 40-45 kt of
effective bulk shear. Given this favorable instability and shear,
the ongoing elevated thunderstorms may persist for the next hour or
two. Lapse rates are rather modest but the strength of the shear
supports storm rotation and some hail is possible. Gradual weakening
is expected after a few hours as instability decreases as a result
of cooling mid-level temperatures and forcing for ascent weakens
with a weakening southwesterly low/mid-level flow.

..Mosier/Edwards.. 11/06/2017
Dome, dome, dome..The life is a dome

Avatar de Usuario
lucas de zarate
Mensajes: 6325
Registrado: Lun Jul 13, 2009 8:38 pm
Ubicación: zárate, pcia de bs as, argentina
Contactar:

Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor lucas de zarate » Lun Nov 06, 2017 11:38 am

Cielos despejados hoy en gran parte de EEUU, les dejo la discusion...
Let there be more light

Avatar de Usuario
stormchaserAlberto
Mensajes: 7301
Registrado: Jue Feb 20, 2014 2:34 am
Ubicación: Río Tercero,Córdoba.
Contactar:

Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensajepor stormchaserAlberto » Lun Nov 06, 2017 11:45 am

lucas de zarate escribió:Cielos despejados hoy en gran parte de EEUU, les dejo la discusion...

No sacan discusiones para cielos despejados :? 8-) .
Dome, dome, dome..The life is a dome


Volver a “Seguimiento Internacional”

¿Quién está conectado?

Usuarios navegando por este Foro: No hay usuarios registrados visitando el Foro y 1 invitado