Tormenta tropical Arthur

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Santiago Linari
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Tormenta tropical Arthur

Mensaje por Santiago Linari » Sab May 16, 2020 6:14 pm

Y finalmente la zona de bajas presiones ganó suficiente organización para catalogarse como depresión tropical. Se espera que para la noche o mañana a la mañana sea la tormenta tropical Arthur.

Satellite images, Doppler radar data, and surface observations
indicate that the low pressure system located just east of the coast
of central Florida has developed sufficient organization to now be
classified as a tropical depression. The low-level center is well
defined and deep convection has persisted near the center and in
bands on the east side of the circulation for the past several
hours. The cyclone is considered tropical instead of subtropical
because it has central deep convection and a relatively small radius
of maximum wind. The initial intensity is estimated to be 30 kt
based on data collected earlier today by the Air Force Hurricane
Hunters. Another aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system
this evening.

Based on satellite data and the earlier reconnaissance fixes, the
initial motion of the system is north-northeastward at 11 kt. A
continued north-northeastward motion at about the same forward speed
is expected during the next 24 hours or so, keeping the cyclone
offshore, but parallel to, the east coast of Florida. After that
time,
the model solutions begin to diverge and the details of the track
forecast become more complicated. The important features for the
future track of the depression appear to be a pair of mid- to
upper-level troughs currently over the central U.S. The specific
amplitude, timing, and location of those troughs will ultimately
result in how close to the coast of North Carolina this system gets.
The GFS and HWRF models are on the left side of the guidance and
bring the system inland or along the coast, while the ECMWF and
UKMET models show an offshore track. The NHC track forecast splits
the difference of these solutions, and lies close to the various
consensus models, which usually perform best. It should be noted
that forecast uncertainty is typically larger for weak systems like
this one.

The system should gradually strengthen during the next couple of
days as it remains over the Gulf Stream current and in relatively
low wind shear conditions. However, the surrounding air mass is not
particularly moist, so that and the marginally warm SSTs should
limit significant intensification. The NHC intensity forecast calls
for the system to become a tropical storm tonight or on Sunday with
continued slow strengthening as it nears the North Carolina coast.
Extratropical transition should occur in about 3 days, or sooner.
The NHC intensity forecast generally lies roughly near the middle of
the guidance envelope.

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Se va a estar moviendo justo sobre la corriente del Golfo, sobre aguas de 26ºC.

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Última edición por Santiago Linari el Dom May 17, 2020 2:26 am, editado 1 vez en total.
¡Oops!

Algo salió mal

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maatii96
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Registrado: Lun Abr 16, 2012 7:07 pm
Ubicación: Ramos Mejía | GBA Oeste

Re: Depresión Tropical Uno

Mensaje por maatii96 » Dom May 17, 2020 12:18 am

Primera tormenta tropical de la temporada: Arthur.

Sexta temporada consecutiva en la cual se forma un sistema antes del inicio oficial (1º de junio).
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS THE DEPRESSION EAST OF FLORIDA HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR... ...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...
Vigilancias por tormenta tropical para gran parte de las costas de Carolina del Norte...

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Y el aspecto de Arthur. No se lo ve muy organizado pero bueno, ahí está.

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maatii96
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Tormenta tropical Arthur

Mensaje por maatii96 » Dom May 17, 2020 10:15 pm

Arthur con sus bandas exteriores afectando a Carolina del Norte. Perdió un montón de convección, se nota que el agua en esa zona está más fría.

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maatii96
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Tormenta tropical Arthur

Mensaje por maatii96 » Mar May 19, 2020 7:06 pm

Bueno se nos fue Arthur, se extratropicalizó durante esta mañana.

Interesante sistema para la época!

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