Huracán Laura (Cat. 4)

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Huracán Laura (Cat. 4)

Mensaje por Wyoming » Lun Ago 17, 2020 5:20 pm

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Como comenté hace unas horas atrás, el sistema que esta en el centro del atlántico tropical ya tiene esa "pinta" de que va a ser el primer gran huracán de tipo cabo verde de la temporada.
GFS atenta con una trayectoria similar a Irma pero un poco más al SW, respondiendo a una zona de alta presiones, idéntica a la que hizo virar a Irma. Veremos.

25KT - 1009MB

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EPS 12z
Rosa/magenta/violeta (el color que sea): <950mb

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ECMWF 12z da un categoría 4.
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Son solo salidas pero da cuenta del ambiente favorable que tiene y que tendrá a priori.
Última edición por Wyoming el Mié Ago 26, 2020 2:45 pm, editado 5 veces en total.
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Re: INVEST 98L

Mensaje por Wyoming » Mar Ago 18, 2020 3:59 pm

Actualizo
NHC escribió:An area of low pressure located about 1300 miles east of the
Lesser Antilles is producing a concentrated area of showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form within
the next couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward
at 15 to 20 mph across the central and western portions of the
tropical Atlantic. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor
the progres of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.


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El sistema del este esta ligado a la ITCZ y pertenece a la misma circulación general que tiene esta enorme baja presión. No obstante, es un sistema aparte! Tal vez por la interacción de esta los modelos no explotan tanto a nuestro invest (98L, a la izquierda más al oeste). Tremendo si se le designa INVEST 99L :lol: Muchos modelos desarrolla este sistema pasando cerca de las islas principales o tocando tierra en ellas. Todo va a depender de que tan fuerte sea la zona de altas presiones en altura.

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Re: INVEST 98L

Mensaje por maatii96 » Mié Ago 19, 2020 4:00 pm

Va queriendo, no me sorprendería ver un PTC en breve.
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An elongated area of low pressure, located about 1000 miles east of
the Windward Islands continues to produce a concentrated area of
showers and thunderstorms. Although recent satellite-derived wind
data indicates that the low is not well-defined, environmental
conditions are conducive for further development, and a tropical
depression is expected to form during the next day or two while the
system moves generally west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the
central and western portions of the tropical Atlantic. Interests
in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

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Re: INVEST 98L

Mensaje por Wyoming » Mié Ago 19, 2020 8:54 pm

Sí, el PTC está al caer.
O tal vez lo clasifiquen directamente como depresión tropical en el aviso de las 23pm.
NHC escribió:Satellite images indicate that the low pressure system located about
850 miles east of the Windward Islands is gradually becoming better
defined. In addition, the associated showers and thunderstorms are
showing signs of organization, and a tropical depression could be
forming. The system is expected to move generally west-northwestward
at 15 to 20 mph, and interests in the northern Leeward Islands
should closely monitor its progress as tropical storm watches could
be required as early as this evening.


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Creo que es un poco grande
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Re: Depresión Tropical Trece

Mensaje por Wyoming » Mié Ago 19, 2020 11:39 pm

Tenemos al primero, 1/3. Mañana si la nombran toca Laura. Creo que rompería el récord de formación más temprana, actual Katrina 2005?



ASCAT-RAMMB muestra que no hay una circulación ciertamente cerrada en superficie. Sin embargo, un promedio ('blend') entre ASCAT y WINDSAT solucionan las ambigüedades que aparecen.

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Acá se explica un mejor lo de estás 'ambigüedades' y sus soluciones, que recién estos días escuché sobre esto :lol:



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maatii96
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Re: Depresión Tropical Trece

Mensaje por maatii96 » Mié Ago 19, 2020 11:53 pm

Sinceramente no esperaba una depresión tan rápido.

GFS y Europa no veían nada hasta pasando las Antillas. Con esto probablemente empiecen a recalcular.
Wyoming escribió:Mañana si la nombran toca Laura. Creo que rompería el récord de formación más temprana, actual Katrina 2005?
El de Katrina ya lo rompió Kyle.

El de la tormenta con 'L' más temprana, curiosamente, no pertenece al 2005. Lo ostenta Luis que se formó el 28/8/95. Muy probablemente se rompa otro récord más.

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Re: Depresión Tropical Trece

Mensaje por Wyoming » Jue Ago 20, 2020 12:15 am

Mensaje 2/2.
Ya salió la primer discusión del NHC. La dejo en spoiler; en negrita lo más importante.
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465
WTNT43 KNHC 200252
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Thirteen Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1100 PM AST Wed Aug 19 2020

The low pressure system that NHC has been monitoring over the
central tropical Atlantic has now developed a well-defined center of
circulation and maintained enough organized deep convection to be
classified as a tropical depression, the thirteenth cyclone of the
2020 Atlantic hurricane season. The depression already has some
banding features on its north and west sides as evident in
geostationary satellite and microwave images. The initial intensity
is set at 30 kt based on ASCAT data from around 0100 UTC and a
T2.0/30 kt Dvorak classifications from TAFB.

The depression has been moving fairly quickly to the west-northwest,
with the latest initial motion estimated to be 295/17 kt. It should
be noted that the initial motion is somewhat uncertain given that
the system has only recently formed. A subtropical ridge currently
over the central Atlantic is expected to build westward during the
next several days and should be the primary steering feature for
the depression through the forecast period.
This pattern should
keep the depression on a fairly quick west-northwest track during
the next several days, taking the cyclone near the northern
Leeward Islands by Friday night and near the Greater Antilles
and southeastern Bahamas this weekend.
The models are in fairly
good agreement, but there is some north-south spread with the GFS
being on the southern side of the guidance envelope and the ECMWF
on the northern end. The NHC track forecast lies down the middle
of the guidance suite.

The environmental conditions appear generally favorable for the
depression to strengthen, with the wind shear expected to remain
relatively low while the system moves over warm SSTs and remains in
a moist airmass.
These conditions should promote gradual
strengthening and it seems quite likely that the cyclone will be a
tropical storm when it moves near or north of the northern Leeward
Islands in a couple of days. The bigger question is how
much interaction will there be with the Greater Antilles. If the
depression moves on the south side of the guidance envelope,
further strengthening would be limited due to land interaction.
Conversely, if the system gains more latitude and moves north of
these highly topographic islands, it could have the opportunity for
more significant intensification
. The NHC intensity forecast, which
is of low confidence, is roughly near the middle of the guidance
envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 14.6N 47.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 16.1N 50.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 17.4N 54.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 18.4N 58.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 22/0000Z 19.1N 62.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 22/1200Z 19.9N 65.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 23/0000Z 20.8N 69.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 24/0000Z 22.9N 76.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 25/0000Z 26.2N 82.2W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
Trayectoria oficial del NHC. Se pone muy interesante a priori..

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maatii96 escribió:
Mié Ago 19, 2020 11:53 pm
El de la tormenta con 'L' más temprana, curiosamente, no pertenece al 2005. Lo ostenta Luis que se formó el 28/8/95. Muy probablemente se rompa otro récord más.
Buenísimo, gracias Mati!
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Re: Depresión Tropical Trece

Mensaje por maatii96 » Jue Ago 20, 2020 10:26 am

Fuerte cambio del GFS después de la clasificación...

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Vamos a ver que hace Europa más tarde.

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Re: Tormenta Tropical Laura

Mensaje por Wyoming » Vie Ago 21, 2020 11:24 am

Bueno, la ascensión de depresión tropical a tormenta tropical hace que LAURA rompa el récord de la formación más temprana para una 12va tormenta (que hasta ayer lo mantenía Luis (cat5) en 1995) por 8 días.


000
WTNT63 KNHC 211305
TCUAT3

Tropical Storm Laura Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
905 AM AST Fri Aug 21 2020

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS
STRENGTHENED TO TROPICAL STORM LAURA
...

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Tropical
Depression Thirteen has strengthened and is now Tropical Storm
Laura with maximum sustained winds of around 45 mph (75 km/h). The
aircraft also found that the center of Laura is located south of the
previously estimated position. These changes will be reflected in
the track and intensity forecasts with the upcoming advisory that
will be issued at 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC).



SUMMARY OF 905 AM AST...1305 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 59.8W
ABOUT 230 MI...375 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


$$
Forecaster Brennan/Pasch
Interesante lo que muestra el SHIPS: 24% de probabilidad de una RI de 65kt en las próximas 72hs.
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* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* THIRTEEN AL132020 08/21/20 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 46 48 50 52 56 59 61 62 60 63 63 67 65 67 67
V (KT) LAND 40 44 46 48 44 44 46 50 51 52 49 52 52 37 30 28 27

V (KT) LGEM 40 44 47 48 44 48 43 47 52 59 63 65 68 45 32 28 27
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 12 11 16 19 14 10 5 3 14 12 19 9 10 15 18 22 22
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 5 3 4 -4 1 -1 -1 -1 -3 -2 -1 -1 -2 0 -1
SHEAR DIR 242 228 229 254 269 205 302 331 3 2 10 9 340 296 301 273 246
SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.4 28.8 29.3 29.7 30.5 30.9 30.3 30.1 29.9 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4
POT. INT. (KT) 149 151 152 156 161 151 160 167 173 173 172 171 167 171 170 169 169
ADJ. POT. INT. 149 150 152 156 161 150 160 164 173 173 161 150 142 149 145 142 138
200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -52.6 -52.7 -52.1 -52.1 -51.5 -51.7 -50.9 -51.4 -51.1 -51.7 -51.5 -52.5
200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 9 10 7 10 6 11 5
700-500 MB RH 59 58 57 58 60 63 64 63 65 65 64 65 62 58 57 65 67
MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 12 12 12 11 11 9 9 9 6 7 5 6 3 3 LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 29 21 15 19 22 29 0 -20 -45 -23 -46 -46 -59 -71 -102 -61 -63
200 MB DIV 30 19 -9 -9 10 31 12 3 0 5 -1 7 5 25 3 23 -5
700-850 TADV -2 -11 -23 -17 -10 -14 -3 -12 -14 -5 -16 4 -3 1 2 5 2
LAND (KM) 672 501 329 143 -11 0 49 11 11 200 297 216 40 -90 -265 -398 -494
LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.3 17.5 18.0 18.4 19.3 20.3 21.7 23.1 24.7 26.6 28.4 29.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 59.5 61.1 62.7 64.4 66.1 69.7 73.4 77.2 80.5 83.2 85.5 87.0 87.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 16 17 17 18 19 18 16 14 13 10 8 8 7 5 4
HEAT CONTENT 40 43 45 66 70 37 52 51 67 56 61 56 33 6 5 5 5

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.2

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 24. 27. 30. 33. 33. 34. 33.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1.
PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -14. -14. -17. -16. -18. -18. -18.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 16. 19. 21. 22. 20. 23. 23. 27. 25. 27. 27.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 17.0 59.5

** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132020 THIRTEEN 08/21/20 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 5.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.56 1.8
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 52.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.35 1.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 2.1
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.8
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.20 0.4
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 210.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.72 1.5
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.77 0.6
D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.18 0.1
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 2.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 5.2%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 7.6% 20.5% 14.6% 12.0% 10.3% 12.8% 13.9% 23.7%
Logistic: 8.1% 15.0% 10.3% 10.7% 5.0% 21.8% 28.4% 57.1%
Bayesian: 6.3% 12.8% 7.0% 1.1% 0.2% 9.7% 18.1% 31.4%
Consensus: 7.3% 16.1% 10.6% 7.9% 5.2% 14.7% 20.2% 37.4%
DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132020 THIRTEEN 08/21/20 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132020 THIRTEEN 08/21/2020 12 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)

** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 44 46 48 44 44 46 50 51 52 49 52 52 37 30 28 27
18HR AGO 40 39 41 43 39 39 41 45 46 47 44 47 47 32 25 23 22
12HR AGO 40 37 36 38 34 34 36 40 41 42 39 42 42 27 20 18 17
6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 26 26 28 32 33 34 31 34 34 19 DIS DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT


Guia de intensidad. El NHC apuesta por un cat 1 para el día 5 del pronostico (120hrs)

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Re: Tormenta Tropical Laura

Mensaje por maatii96 » Vie Ago 21, 2020 11:53 am

Un poco más al sur de lo estimado el centro me parece. Tal vez evite las islas por abajo, pero todavía está complicado sacar conclusiones.

Siempre que no se le ocurra reformar el centro, claro. Pero por ahora se ve que es medio un quilombo el sistema.

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