η Huracán Eta (Categoría 4)

[Wyoming]

Esto no puede esperar más, si nos dejamos estar, estos bichos nos van a ganar (?)

El centro en niveles medios ya es notable y con explosiones convectivas.. uno tras otro. El vídeo que dejó Santi en el topic de vigilancia realmente refleja en lo que desembocan estos sistemas.

Aquí todavía no se ve en niveles bajos, vientos del O/NW/SW, por lo que todavia no hay nada en superficie.

https://realearth.ssec.wisc.edu/?produc ... 8HyT53X_Kk#



Energía potencial del Caribe, suficiente para soportar un categoría 4/5.



T° del agua: 29-30°C

1. A large area of disturbed weather moving from the tropical Atlantic
across the Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean Sea is
associated with a pair of tropical waves. Upper-level winds are
expected to become more conducive for development of this
disturbance during the next couple of days, and a tropical
depression could form over the weekend or early next week while the
system moves westward across the central and western Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[maatii96]

Sos manija eh, no podías esperar a la Invest por lo menos?

Igual no falta mucho porque lo subieron a 30/70.

1. A large area of disturbed weather in the vicinity of the Lesser
Antilles is associated with a tropical wave. Upper-level winds are
expected to become more conducive for development of this
disturbance during the next few days, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by the time the system reaches the western Caribbean
Sea early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[Wyoming]

Sos manija eh, no podías esperar a la Invest por lo menos?

Igual no falta mucho porque lo subieron a 30/70.

1. A large area of disturbed weather in the vicinity of the Lesser
Antilles is associated with a tropical wave. Upper-level winds are
expected to become more conducive for development of this
disturbance during the next few days, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by the time the system reaches the western Caribbean
Sea early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Se desarrolla rápido..



Radar de Santa Lucía
¿Ustedes ven rotación? Parece que el centro en niveles bajos se quiere formar rápido!





GFS sigue en las drogas

Spoiler

Mostrar

[Santiago Linari]

Eso fue rápido

Una tormenta que se organiza y profundiza antes da como resultado un corrimiento más al norte, lo que reduce las chances de interacción con Centroamérica. Lo de siempre.



Y parece que está haciendo todo más rápido de lo previsto.

[Wyoming]

80/90 en el último TWO.
PTC 29 está al caer.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is producing
a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms. This system is
slowly becoming better organized, and conditions appear conducive
for further development. A tropical depression is likely to form
this weekend as the system moves westward across the central and
western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, this system is
expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of the ABC
islands and Jamaica through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

El anticiclón en altura está on-point

[maatii96]

Clasificación en 3...2...

A vigorous tropical wave located over the central Caribbean Sea
continues to produce organized cloudiness and thunderstorms, and a
tropical depression appears to be forming. If this recent
development trend continues, then advisories will likely be
initiated on this disturbance this afternoon or evening while the
system moves generally westward at about 15 mph toward the western
Caribbean Sea. Interests in Jamaica, Honduras, and Nicaragua should
monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development,
this disturbance is expected to produce heavy rainfall across
portions of Jamaica and southern Hispaniola through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

Seguramente sea 29L en un rato.

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (96L)

B. 31/1730Z

C. 15.1N

D. 72.3W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T2.0/2.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...3.5/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.0. MET IS 1.0. PT IS
1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK

[maatii96]

NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression 29, located over the central Caribbean Sea, at 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC).

[Ale de Castelar]

Depresion tropical

GFS arruina Florida en siete dias

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones/

[maatii96]

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
APPROACHES NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 73.2W
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 665 MI...1075 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

Ese ralentizamiento antes de tocar tierra no me gusta mucho...

[Ale de Castelar]

Dificil que se de asi, aunque es entretenido mirar las salidas de los modelos (aunque Euro no lo ve asi)