Huracanes Hilary e Irwin, tormenta tropical Greg

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maatii96
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Re: Huracán Hilary, tormentas tropicales Greg e Irwin

Mensajepor maatii96 » Mar Jul 25, 2017 12:30 am

Acá vamos de nuevo :)

Greg: todavía mantiene su intensidad y el satélite muestra cierta convección, lo cual se debe a que este sistema se está moviendo en un ambiente con baja cortante y temperaturas de mar no tan desfavorables (27 grados). De todas maneras, se espera que en 24 horas empiece a moverse sobre SSTs de 26 grados, lo cual junto a un incremento de la cortante en las siguientes 36-48 horas hará que Greg se vaya debilitando gradualmente, para convertirse en una baja remanente en más o menos 72 horas.

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SPOILER - El siguiente texto está oculto. Presioná en la barra para mostrarlo.
000
WTPZ42 KNHC 250233
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Greg Discussion Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072017
800 PM PDT Mon Jul 24 2017

The cloud pattern of Greg has changed little during the last
several hours. The low-level center of the storm remains covered
up by an area of deep convection that has increased in intensity
during the past few hours. The latest Dvorak classifications
are largely unchanged from earlier, and the initial wind speed
estimate remains 40 kt for this advisory.
This intensity estimate
is also in fairly close agreement with the earlier scatterometer
data.

Greg has made the expected turn to the west-northwest on the south
side of a low- to mid-level ridge. The models suggest that Greg
should move west-northwestward to northwestward during the
next couple of days as the ridge to the north of the system weakens
a little. A turn to the west and then west-southwest is expected in
2 to 3 days when Greg becomes a shallow system and is steered by the
low-level trade wind flow. The NHC track forecast is a tad to the
north of the previous one, trending toward the latest model
consensus aids.

The tropical storm is still over relatively warm 27 deg C waters
and in a low wind shear environment. The environment along the
projected path of Greg is expected to become hostile during
the next couple of days, with the cyclone forecast to move into a
progressively drier air mass and over waters cooler than 26 deg C
beginning in about 24 h. In addition, a significant increase in
northwesterly wind shear is expected to begin in 36 to 48 h. These
unfavorable conditions should cause a steady weakening trend, and
Greg is forecast to become a remnant low by 72 h
. The NHC intensity
forecast is identical to the previous one and in line with the bulk
of the model guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 14.8N 134.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 15.4N 135.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 16.3N 137.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 17.1N 138.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 17.5N 140.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 28/0000Z 17.0N 143.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 29/0000Z 16.0N 146.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/0000Z 15.0N 148.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW


$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Irwin: a pesar de que lo estuvo molestando cierta cortante, se ha ido intensificando y mejorando estructuralmente a lo largo del día, con convección profunda en su centro. Actualmente tiene un rumbo oeste-noroeste, el cual podría cambiar a oeste-sudoeste entre las próximas 24 a 72 horas a medida que Hilary se le vaya acercando.

El escenario sobre una posible interacción con Hilary sigue siendo incierto: modelos como UKMET, Europa y ahora también el GFS muestran a este sistema orbitando alrededor de Hilary, para luego ser absorbida por ella. Luego, el CMC muestra interacción entre estos sistemas, pero manteniéndose separados. Por último, modelos como el HWRF y el HMON no plantean ningún tipo de interacción entre ambos.

Volviendo a Irwin, el ambiente le es favorable para seguir intensificándose un poco más, pudiendo alcanzar la fuerza de huracán durante el día de mañana. Luego empezaría a ser afectado por el 'outflow' de Hilary y a desplazarse sobre aguas más frías, llevando a su debilitamiento.

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000
WTPZ45 KNHC 250235
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017
800 PM PDT Mon Jul 24 2017

Irwin has been gradually strengthening throughout the day. Satellite
images show that deep convection has been persisting over the center
and in fragmented curved bands, especially over the south and west
portions of the circulation. Microwave images indicate that the
system is vertically titled from south to north, likely due to
southerly shear.
The latest Dvorak CI numbers are 3.5/55 kt from
TAFB and 4.0/65 kt from SAB. These estimates and higher ADT values
from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin support increasing the
initial intensity to 60 kt.

Irwin is crawling west-northwestward, with the initial motion
estimated to be 285/3 kt. A slow westward to west-northwestward
motion is forecast through early Tuesday as a weak mid-level ridge
remains in place to the north of the storm. A west-southwestward
motion is expected between 24 and 72 h as Hurricane Hilary
approaches from the east.
Beyond that time, the track forecast is
very challenging as the models remain quite divergent with the
spread being more than 700 n mi at day 5. The UKMET, ECMWF, and GFS
global models show Irwin rotating around the east side of the
circulation of Hilary and ultimately merging with that hurricane.
The CMC model shows some binary interaction between the tropical
cyclones, but keeps the systems separate, and the regional hurricane
models HWRF and HMON show no interaction between the systems and
continue to move Irwin westward.
The NHC track forecast favors the
global models and shows a slow northward motion on days 4 and 5.
Needless to say, the long range track forecast is of low confidence.

The environmental conditions should support some additional
strengthening during the next day or so, and Irwin is expected to
become a hurricane tonight or on Tuesday. Thereafter, an increase
in vertical wind shear, associated with the outflow of Hilary, and
slightly cooler waters along the forecast track should cause a
gradual weakening trend
. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to
the previous one and in fair agreement with the consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 15.2N 118.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 15.3N 118.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 15.1N 119.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 14.8N 120.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 14.5N 121.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 28/0000Z 14.2N 122.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 29/0000Z 15.5N 123.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 30/0000Z 18.0N 123.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Hilary: el más interesante. Recién ascendido a categoría 2, muestra una convección muy profunda en su centro y una mejor organización, e incluso satélites han detectado la existencia de un ojo muy pequeño (< 10 millas náuticas de diámetro).

Hilary ha sido un poco molestada por una modesta cortante en niveles altos, al parecer causados por un complejo convectivo relativamente adyacente a ella. Sin embargo, este complejo ya ha mostrado signos de debilitamiento, por lo cual su influencia ya debería disminuir.

Su muy buena organización y un ambiente altamente favorable podría hacer entrar a Hilary en una intensificación rápida dentro de las 12 a 24 horas. Luego de esto, algunas fluctuaciones en intensidad son posibles si el sistema sufre cambios en su ojo o estructura interna. Por último, más allá de las 72 horas el sistema empezaría a debilitarse a medida que se mueva sobre aguas más frías y un ambiente sobre mayor cortante.

También cabe aclarar que si llegara a interactuar con Irwin, Hilary sería el sistema dominante y terminaría absorbiéndolo, pero como ya mencioné, sigue siendo un panorama bastante incierto.

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000
WTPZ44 KNHC 250235
TCDEP4

Hurricane Hilary Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017
1000 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

Recent microwave satellite images indicate that Hilary has developed
a tight banding eye feature with a diameter of less than 10 nmi.

Deep convection with cloud tops to -85C within an elongated CDO has
continued to pulse since the previous advisory, likely due to some
modest high-level shear induced by a large convective complex
located a couple hundred nmi southeast of Hilary's center.
However,
that convective cloud mass has recently been showing signs of
waning, so that negative influence will likely begin to abate fairly
soon.
Dvorak satellite intensity estimates were a consensus T4.5/77
kt from TAFB and SAB at 0000Z. Since that time, the CDO has become
more distinct and NHC objective intensity estimates have been
ranging between 82-88 kt during the past 2 hours. As a result, the
advisory intensity has been increased to 85 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 300/08 kt. Hilary is forecast to
move generally west-northwestward along the southern periphery of a
deep-layer subtropical ridge for the next 5 days. With the exception
of the more northerly GFS model -- which had a similar poleward bias
with Fernanda -- the rest of the NHC model guidance is tightly
clustered around the previous forecast track. As a result, only
minor speed adjustments were made to the previous forecast track.
Although some binary interaction with TS Irwin is still possible,
Hilary is expected to be the larger and more dominant circulation,
resulting in Irwin being pulled poleward within Hilary's wake on
days 3-5.


The small eye and tight inner-core banding features noted in recent
microwave imagery, along with large-scale low vertical wind shear
conditions and favorable thermodynamics, argues for some rapid
intensification to occur during the next 12-24 hours. Thereafter,
some adjustment of the eye and inner-core wind field is possible,
which has resulted in a leveling off of Hilary's intensity forecast
in the 24-to 48-h period. By 72 hours and beyond, the combination
of decreasing SSTs to less than 26C along with some modest westerly
wind shear should produce steady weakening.
The official intensity
forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and follows a blend of
the HCCA and ECMWF intensity predictions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 15.0N 105.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 15.5N 107.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 16.1N 109.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 16.5N 111.1W 105 KT 120 MPH

48H 27/0000Z 17.1N 113.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 28/0000Z 18.1N 116.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 29/0000Z 19.1N 120.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 30/0000Z 19.9N 123.4W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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maatii96
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Re: Huracanes Hilary e Irwin, tormenta tropical Greg

Mensajepor maatii96 » Mar Jul 25, 2017 11:36 am

Para el recuerdo, de izquierda a derecha: Greg (ya moribundo), Irwin y Hilary.

Imagen

Irwin se convirtió en un huracán de categoría 1, mientras Hilary sigue intensificándose y se espera que alcance la categoría 3 el día de hoy. Su posible interacción todavía es una incógnita.

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Santiago Linari
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Re: Huracanes Hilary e Irwin, tormenta tropical Greg

Mensajepor Santiago Linari » Mar Jul 25, 2017 12:00 pm

Hilary no tiene muuuy buena pinta igual. De hecho no se intensificó en las últimas 6 horas. Probablemente le siga afectando la cortante del SE.
Muy buenos aportes Mati!
Pones canciones tristes para sentirte mejor

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Re: Huracanes Hilary e Irwin, tormenta tropical Greg

Mensajepor maatii96 » Mar Jul 25, 2017 2:48 pm

Santiago Linari escribió:Hilary no tiene muuuy buena pinta igual. De hecho no se intensificó en las últimas 6 horas. Probablemente le siga afectando la cortante del SE.
Muy buenos aportes Mati!


Sabés que pienso lo mismo, vos ves a Hilary y ni ahí parece un categoría 2, ni siquiera tiene un ojo claro como el que ahora desarrolló Irwin! Pero el NHC sigue insistiendo en que puede alcanzar la categoría 3 por lo menos...

Irwin ahora, se ve como sacó un ojo bien clarito :)

Imagen

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Chuekin
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Re: Huracanes Hilary e Irwin, tormenta tropical Greg

Mensajepor Chuekin » Mié Jul 26, 2017 12:43 pm

We in the field know that GFS 10+ day forecasts are "fantasy land"

Hay que dejar de decirle CHUVA al WRF por dos años (?)

-Martin

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Re: Huracanes Hilary e Irwin, tormenta tropical Greg

Mensajepor maatii96 » Mié Jul 26, 2017 2:31 pm

Impresionante esa secuencia :o :o :o

Bueno, Greg ya fue degradado a depresión tropical durante el día de ayer y se espera que se convierta en una baja remanente hoy mismo, asi que no hay nada más que decir.

Irwin

Se debilitó a una tormenta tropical y ha perdido organización, y si bien su ambiente no es absolutamente desfavorable, tampoco lo ayudará a ganar fuerza. En principio se espera que se debilite un poco y luego mantenga su intensidad manteniendo un rumbo oeste-sudoeste durante el próxima día o dos, para luego ser forazada hacia el norte a medida que Hilary empiece a interactuar con él.

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(Noten que ya se asoma Hilary por el este)

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000
WTPZ45 KNHC 261450
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017
800 AM PDT Wed Jul 26 2017

Satellite images and microwave data indicate that Irwin's cloud
pattern has significantly deteriorated since yesterday. It now
consists of a tight circulation center located just to the south of
an area of deep, but not too well organized, convection.

Consequently, the initial intensity has been decreased to 55 kt
based on lower Dvorak T-numbers from all agencies. The environment
does not support significant weakening, but is not favorable for
much intensification either.
The NHC forecast calls for a slight
weakening today, and shows no change in intensity for the
next 5 days.
Although the intensity forecast is a little bit
different from the previous one due to the lower current intensity,
it does not change the general trend expressed in previous NHC
forecasts.

Irwin is moving toward the west-southwest or 255 degrees at 6 kt.
Currently, the cyclone is embedded within weak steering currents,
and Irwin will probably continue on the same slow west-southwest
track during the next day or two. After that time, Hurricane Hilary
is forecast to pass well north of Irwin, and the steering currents
will change to southerlies, and most of the models agree that Irwin
should begin to move with a northerly component in the wake of
Hilary.
This is reflected in the official NHC forecast which in fact
is close to the multi-model consensus TVCN, and is not very
different from the previous one.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 15.6N 122.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 15.3N 123.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 14.9N 124.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 14.5N 125.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 14.5N 125.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 15.0N 125.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 30/1200Z 17.5N 125.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 31/1200Z 20.5N 126.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila


Hilary

Si bien es un huracán potente no ha ganado la intensidad que se esperaba, aparentemente por un poco de aire seco que la ha estado afectando, y solamente el modelo Europeo le da posibilidades de convertirse en un huracán mayor (cosa que parece difícil). En este momento está soportando una modesta cortante, y aunque se espera que disminuya, para ese entonces el sistema se moverá en aguas marginalmente cálidas en un entorno más seco y estable. Más allá de las 72 horas, se espera que la interacción con Irwin y aguas ya más frías la vayan debilitando.

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000
WTPZ44 KNHC 261435
TCDEP4

Hurricane Hilary Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017
900 AM MDT Wed Jul 26 2017

Satellite images indicate that Hilary remains a powerful hurricane.
The central dense overcast has become more symmetric, although
convection is still preferentially forming in the eastern eyewall.

Any eye feature, however, is somewhat less distinct than a few hours
ago, and the latest microwave passes are again showing an open
eyewall on the west side. Intensity estimates range from 82 to 99
kt, so the initial wind speed will stay at 90 kt.

There are still hints of northerly shear in cirrus cloud motions
from the 1-min GOES-16 data
, although the cyclone's cloud canopy
looks less distorted than yesterday. This shear is forecast to
persist for the next day or two while the hurricane moves over
warm waters. After that time, while the shear could decrease,
Hilary will be traversing marginally warm waters, with some increase
in drier, more stable air in the environment.
Most of the guidance
is in good agreement on little change in the short-term, with a
gradual decrease in wind speed through 3 days. Beyond then, much
colder waters should cause a more rapid weakening, along with some
interaction with Irwin.
The new NHC forecast is basically an update
of the previous one and lies close to IVCN, the variable intensity
model consensus. It should be noted that the ECMWF is on its own by
intensifying Hilary to a major hurricane in 2 to 3 days.


The initial motion is 280/11. The track forecast is essentially
unchanged for the next 48 h, while Hilary is expected to be steered
by the mid-level subtropical ridge to the north. After that time,
the ridge is forecast to become weaker to due to a mid- to
upper-level trough dropping over the Baja California peninsula.
Models are not in good agreement on how much the ridge weakens due
to this trough, leading to a wide disparity of solutions at long
range. There has been little change in the guidance suite since 6z,
so the official forecast is close to the previous one.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 16.4N 112.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 16.7N 113.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 17.1N 115.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 17.5N 117.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 18.1N 118.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 19.7N 121.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 30/1200Z 21.4N 125.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 31/1200Z 23.0N 129.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

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Re: Huracanes Hilary e Irwin, tormenta tropical Greg

Mensajepor maatii96 » Vie Jul 28, 2017 12:40 am

Les cuento un poco más o menos como está todo, no falta demasiado para que Hilary e Irwin empiecen a interactuar :P

Irwin:

Se lo ve un poco desorganizado, aunque sigue mostrando topes muy fríos en su centro. Su muerte no será atribuido precisamente a condiciones desfavorables (en este sentido no está tan complicado, y de hecho viene manteniendo la intensidad), sino que se preveé que en unos días empiece a orbitar alrededor de Hilary para luego ser absorbido, en aproximadamente 96 horas. En principio Irwin no se va a mover demasiado en las próximas 36 horas, para luego moverse rápidamente hacia el norte dentro de las siguientes 48-72.

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000
WTPZ45 KNHC 280254
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017
800 PM PDT Thu Jul 27 2017

Irwin's convective pattern has changed little since the previous
advisory. A long curved but fragmented band of convection wraps
almost 75 percent of the way around the circulation center
, yielding
a consensus Dvorak intensity estimate of T3.5/55 kt from both TAFB
and SAB. However, objective estimates from UW-CIMSS ADT and NHC are
T2.9/43 kt and T3.0/45 kt, respectively, which are supported by an
earlier UW-CIMSS AMSU estimate of 45 kt. Based on average of these
estimates, the initial intensity has been held at 50 kt.

The initial motion estimate is a slow drift toward the west, or
270/02 kt. For such weak steering currents, the latest NHC model
guidance is in very good agreement on Irwin moving little for the
next 36 hours or so, followed by a faster motion toward the north at
48 and 72 hours as the cyclone moves up the eastern and the northern
sides of Tropical Storm Hilary. Irwin is then forecast to merge with
Hilary by 96 hours.
The new NHC track forecast is similar to the
previous advisory, and lies close to the multi-model consensus TVCN.

The overall environment surrounding Irwin is expected to change
little before the cyclone merges with Tropical Storm Hilary, so only
minor fluctuations in intensity are forecast, based primarily on
slight changes in the vertical wind shear.
The new forecast follows
the previous advisory and the consensus model IVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 14.9N 124.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 14.8N 124.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 14.8N 125.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 15.0N 125.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 16.4N 124.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 31/0000Z 20.0N 126.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 01/0000Z...MERGED WITH TROPICAL STORM HILARY

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Hilary:

Recientemente degradada a tormenta tropical, aire seco la ha estado afectando notoriamente. Ha perdido mucho en organización y también en convección, apenas quedando un área bastante acotada de topes fríos. Actualmente tiene un rumbo oeste-noroeste, pudiendo cambiar brevemente hacia el oeste antes de absorber a Irwin.

Si bien continúa moviéndose sobre aguas cálidas y algunos modelos plantean que podría recuperar algo de fuerza, el NHC prefiere mantener un pronóstico más conservador manteniendo su intensidad actual (visto por como Hilary está sufriendo el aire seco). Esto cambiaría luego de 24 horas, cuando el sistema se mueva sobre aire aún más seco y aguas más frías, para debilitarse y convertirse en un ciclón post-tropical en más o menos 96 horas.

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ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Storm Hilary Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017
800 PM PDT Thu Jul 27 2017

Deep convection associated with Hilary has been decreasing during
the last several hours, and the convective pattern is now limited to
a ragged central dense overcast. This loss of convection appears to
be associated with dry air that has wrapped into the circulation, as
evident in microwave data
. An average of the latest Final T- and
CI-numbers from TAFB/SAB, along with ADT values from CIMSS at the
University of Wisconsin, support lowering the initial intensity to
60 kt, making Hilary a tropical storm.

Hilary still has another 18-24 hours over warm water, and the
regional hurricane models respond to this by showing Hilary
restrengthening during that time. Given the observed weakening
trend over the past day or so and Hilary's current struggle with dry
air, the NHC intensity forecast lies at the low end of the guidance
during that time frame, and calls for the storm to remain steady in
intensity. After 24 hours, Hilary is expected to cross the 26-deg C
isotherm and it will be moving over even cooler waters and into a
drier air mass during the next few days. These unfavorable
conditions should cause weakening, and Hilary is forecast to become
a post-tropical cyclone in about 4 days.
The NHC intensity forecast
is similar to the previous one, and it lies fairly close to the
SHIPS and LGEM models.

The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at 7 kt on the south
side of a mid-level ridge.
This motion with a slight increase in
forward speed is expected during the next couple of days as the
mid-level ridge strengthens. When Irwin rotates around the eastern
and northern sides of Hilary in the 48- to 72-h time frame, Hilary
could turn briefly to the left before it absorbs Irwin
. Thereafter,
a slower motion to the west-northwest is predicted as the weakening
storm moves in the low- to mid-level flow. The NHC track forecast
is adjusted a little to the north of the previous one, to come into
better agreement with the latest consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 18.3N 117.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 18.8N 118.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 19.6N 120.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 20.5N 122.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 21.2N 124.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 31/0000Z 22.1N 128.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 01/0000Z 23.2N 132.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 02/0000Z 24.5N 134.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW


$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

NNNN

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Re: Huracanes Hilary e Irwin, tormenta tropical Greg

Mensajepor maatii96 » Dom Jul 30, 2017 1:58 pm

Bueno, parece que al final se fue dando un escenario distinto al que se planteaba hace unos días. Hilary e Irwin finalmente no han tenido una interacción muy evidente, y mucho menos Hilary absorberá al otro sistema. De hecho, se espera que Hilary se convierta en una baja remanente durante el día de hoy porque se está moviendo más al norte que Irwin y en condiciones altamente hostiles, como SSTs por debajo de los 22 grados y aire seco.

En cuanto a Irwin, aunque todavía no esté mostrando síntomas de debilitamiento, se espera que al moverse más al norte tenga el mismo destino que Hilary: condiciones hostiles la irán debilitando poco a poco... pero es interesante como durante los días anteriores se planteaba que Hilary iba a definir el destino de Irwin, y finalmente ambos sistemas se mantuvieron independientes, con Irwin teniendo vida un poco más prolongada que el otro sistema. :D

Hilary, ya casi sin convección y con el centro totalmente expuesto

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ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Storm Hilary Discussion Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017
800 AM PDT Sun Jul 30 2017

Convection has continued to rapidly wane with only a small band of
modest thunderstorm activity with tops to -30C restricted to the
southeastern quadrant
. The initial intensity has been lowered to 35
kt based on a blend of available intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB,
and UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON. This rapid weakening trend is forecast
to continue since Hilary is now moving over sub-22 C SSTs and into
an extensive field of stable, cold-air stratocumulus clouds. These
unfavorable thermodynamic conditions should cause Hilary to
degenerate into a remnant low pressure system tonight, if not
sooner.


The initial motion estimate is 300/11 kt. As Hilary continues to
lose its deep vertical circulation, the shallow cyclone should
maintain a general west-northwestward motion along the southern
periphery of a deep-layer ridge until dissipation occurs in 72 h.
The NHC track forecast remains along the southern portion of the
tightly clustered guidance and is close to the previous advisory
track.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 23.9N 125.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 31/0000Z 24.9N 127.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 31/1200Z 25.8N 129.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 01/0000Z 26.3N 131.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 01/1200Z 26.7N 133.2W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED


$$
Forecaster Stewart

NNNN


Irwin, aún con convección importante y cierta organización

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000
WTPZ45 KNHC 301436
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017
800 AM PDT Sun Jul 30 2017

Even though Irwin is crossing the 26 deg C isotherm, it does not
appear to be weakening yet. In fact, recent microwave data indicate
the tropical storm has a mid-level eye, which has occasionally
appeared in geostationary satellite images. The system is still
producing a fair amount of deep convection, especially to the south
of the center.
The latest Dvorak CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB are
3.5/55 kt and accordingly, the initial intensity is set a bit higher
to 55 kt. This wind speed estimate is also in agreement with ASCAT
data from several hours ago that showed maximum winds near 50 kt.

Despite the recent increase in intensity, Irwin is expected to begin
weakening soon as it moves over even cooler waters and into a drier
and more stable air mass. The storm is likely to become a remnant
low in 36 to 48 hours when it will be over SSTs near 22 deg C
. Most
of the global models show the remnant low dissipating in 4 to 5
days. The NHC intensity forecast follows the trend of the guidance,
and it is largely unchanged from the previous prediction.

Irwin is moving north-northwestward, or 345 degrees, at 8 kt. The
system is embedded in south-southeasterly flow in the wake of
Hilary, and it is expected to remain in this steering flow for
another day or two. Once Irwin becomes a remnant low, the shallow
system is expected to turn a little to the left and slow down as it
becomes steered by the low-level flow. The NHC track forecast is
adjusted a little to the north and east of the previous one, to come
into better agreement with the latest consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 17.9N 125.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 31/0000Z 19.4N 126.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 31/1200Z 21.7N 127.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 23.9N 128.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 25.7N 130.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 02/1200Z 27.9N 132.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 03/1200Z 29.0N 133.2W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED


$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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maatii96
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Re: Huracanes Hilary e Irwin, tormenta tropical Greg

Mensajepor maatii96 » Lun Jul 31, 2017 12:07 am

Hilary ya fue degradado a ciclón post-tropical y se espera que termine de disiparse en unos días. El NHC ya no emitirá más avisos al respecto por lo que ya no queda nada interesante para contar.

Irwin la sigue luchando y mantiene cierta organización y convección, a pesar de estar desplazándose sobre SSTs menores a 25 grados. De todos modos en las próximas 24 horas se empezará a mover sobre las isotermas de 22-23º, lo cual hará que se debilite.

Se prevee que en más o menos 36 horas se convierta en una baja remanente, mientras sigue con su rumbo norte-noroeste.

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000
WTPZ45 KNHC 310234
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017
800 PM PDT Sun Jul 30 2017

Irwin is one resilient tropical storm. Amazingly, the cloud
pattern has improved during the past few hours, with deep
convection forming and rotating around the center even though the
cyclone is now over sea surface temperatures colder than 25 deg C.

A 0002 UTC SSMIS microwave pass revealed a small ring of deep
convection that was partially open on the east side, but it also
suggested that the vortex is tilted a bit with height. Since Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB are a consensus T3.5, the initial
intensity remains 55 kt.

Irwin will be moving from 24-25C waters to 22-23C waters during the
next 24 hours, so weakening should begin soon. In fact, it will be
quite difficult for Irwin to continue producing organized deep
convection in about 36 hours, and that is when the NHC forecast
calls for it to degenerate into a remnant low.
Based on global
model fields, the remnant low is forecast to dissipate by day 4, if
not sooner. No changes to the previous NHC forecast were required
based on the latest intensity guidance.

The forward motion continues to increase as Irwin trails behind
Hilary, and the current estimate is 335/11 kt. A little more
acceleration toward the north-northwest is expected during the next
12-24 hours, but Irwin should turn northwest and slow down on days
2 and 3 as it moves around the remnant circulation of Hilary. The
updated NHC track forecast was nudged northeast of the previous
forecast after 24 hours to be closer in line with the latest HCCA
and TVCN guidance, but otherwise no significant changes were needed.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0300Z 19.8N 126.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 31/1200Z 21.5N 127.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 23.9N 128.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 26.0N 129.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 02/0000Z 27.6N 131.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 03/0000Z 28.9N 133.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED


$$
Forecaster Berg

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Cristofer
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Re: Huracanes Hilary e Irwin, tormenta tropical Greg

Mensajepor Cristofer » Lun Jul 31, 2017 3:02 am

Buen seguimiento Mati!! :D
No te olvides de visitar: AFICIONADOS A LA METEOROLOGIA ARGENTINA


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