Tormenta ciclónica Amphan (Cat. 5)

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Wyoming
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Tormenta ciclónica Amphan (Cat. 5)

Mensaje por Wyoming » Dom May 17, 2020 2:08 pm

Buenas.

Abro topic sobre este lindo ciclón que se esta intensificando explosivamente en la Bahia de Bengala.
Tendría un pico máximo de 105kt. Se espera que alcance la categoria de "tormenta ciclonica extremadamente severa" en unos dias mientras se dirige directo a Bangladesh.

Actualmente cuenta con 75kt y 975mb.

Parte meteorologíco del IMD
http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/imag ... 732174.pdf

PS. Los links para las imagenes satelitales de esta tormenta estan caidos :x Pero hasta hace un rato mostraba un pinhole eye.

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Última edición por Wyoming el Lun May 18, 2020 4:57 pm, editado 1 vez en total.
Previously known as MarianoStorm.
Pasillo de los Tornados - Pasado y presente.

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Porra
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Super Tormenta Ciclónica Amphan (Cat 5)

Mensaje por Porra » Lun May 18, 2020 2:49 pm

Bueno, digamos que esto no se le da bola porque está en índico, llega a pegar en USA y estamos todos hablando del desastre que va a generar. Pero lo interesante es que va a pegar en poco tiempo en uno de los lugares con mayor riesgo del planeta en términos de impacto de un ciclón. Y nadie en ningún lado les está dando un segundo de espacio cuando ademas tenemos el COVID explotando por la zona.

Ya tiene 145 Kt y pronóstico de 150 Kt para las próximas 12 horas
SGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 14.0N 86.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0N 86.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 15.5N 86.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 17.4N 87.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 19.6N 87.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 22.0N 88.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 25.4N 89.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 14.4N 86.4E.
18MAY20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (AMPHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
530 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANSIVE SYSTEM (600NM+ ACROSS) THAT
CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE WITH SUPER-DENSE, DEEP, AND SYMMETRICAL
CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE HAS ALSO MAINTAINED A SHARPLY-
OUTLINED 10NM ROUND EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE, AND LINED UP WITH A DEFINED MICROWAVE
PINHOLE EYE IN THE 181013Z SSMIS 91GHZ COLORIZED IMAGE. THE
MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO DEPICTS AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE TAKING
PLACE WITH THE PRESENCE OF TWO DISTINCT CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS, TYPICAL
FOR VERY INTENSE CYCLONES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T7.0/140KTS FROM PGTW TO REFLECT
THE IMPROVED EIR SIGNATURE OF THE SYSTEM. THE CYCLONE IS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (15-20KT) VWS THAT IS OFFSET BY
STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW AND A STORM MOTION THAT IS IN-PHASE WITH THE
POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL WINDS. ADDITIONALLY, ALONG-TRACK SSTS (31C+)
ARE HIGHLY CONDUCIVE. TC AMPHAN WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY
NORTHWARD IN THE BAY OF BENGAL ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 150KTS OVER
THE NEXT 12HRS. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM DOWN TO 85KTS BY TAU 48 JUST AFTER LANDFALL SOUTH OF KOLKATA.
AFTERWARD, EXTREMELY RUGGED TERRAIN, IN ADDITION TO HIGH VWS
(40KTS+), WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE CYCLONE LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY
TAU 72. GLOBAL NUMERIC MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH MINIMAL
SPREADING TO 120NM AT TAU 72 WITH NAVGEM ON THE LEFT AND UKMET ON
THE RIGHT OF THE ENVELOPE, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST THAT IS LAID NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 54 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z,
190300Z, 190900Z AND 191500Z.//
NNNN
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facuu98
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Registrado: Dom May 18, 2014 10:33 am
Ubicación: Las Parejas-Santa Fe

Re: Ciclón Amphan (Cat. 1)

Mensaje por facuu98 » Lun May 18, 2020 2:52 pm

Dejo el link de los radares la India (en algunos radares ya se puede ver el ojo a lo lejos).


https://mausam.imd.gov.in/imd_latest/co ... akhapatnam

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maatii96
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Re: Tormenta ciclónica Amphan (Cat. 5)

Mensaje por maatii96 » Mar May 19, 2020 7:12 pm

Es interesante porque al ser un sistema muy intenso y estar en aguas calientes no se ve excesivamente afectada por la cortante de 25 a 30 nudos -según informa el JTWC-. Por esa razón se viene debilitando lentamente y se espera que toque tierra con 90 nudos.

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