Tormenta tropical 01S

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MAURICIO DE BRAGADO
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Registrado: Mié Mar 31, 2010 10:46 am

Tormenta tropical 01S

Mensajepor MAURICIO DE BRAGADO » Mar Oct 26, 2010 1:07 pm

Nacio la tormenta tropical 01S

ADT811 LIST 01S.ODT
===== ADT-Version 8.1.1 =====
--------Intensity------- -Tno Values-- ---Tno/CI Rules--- -Temperature-
Time Final/MSLPLat/Vmax Fnl Adj Ini Cnstrnt Wkng Rpd Cntr Mean Scene EstRMW MW Storm Location Fix
Date (UTC) CI MSLP /BiasAdj/(kts) Tno Raw Raw Limit Flag Wkng Region Cloud Type (km) Score Lat Lon Mthd Comments
2010OCT26 133000 2.5 997.0/ +0.0 / 35.0 2.5 2.5 2.5 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -3.33 -40.20 SHEAR N/A N/A -11.10 -86.35 FCST
2010OCT26 143000 2.6 995.8/ +0.0 / 37.0 2.6 2.7 3.3 0.2T/hour OFF OFF 0.16 -44.08 SHEAR N/A N/A -11.24 -86.32 FCST
Utilizing history file /home/misc/adt/scripts/history/01S.ODT
Successfully completed listing


WTXS31 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/252251Z OCT 10//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 10.9S 86.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 10.9S 86.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 12.3S 85.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 13.1S 84.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 13.8S 83.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 14.4S 81.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 15.2S 77.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 15.5S 73.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 15.0S 69.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 11.3S 86.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 850 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FIRST SYSTEM OF THE 2011 SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE TROPICAL CYCLONE SEASON. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS
RELAXED OVER THE SYSTEM AND HAS ALLOWED FOR DEEP CONVECTION TO BUILD
BACK OVER THE CENTER, ELEVATING DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND FMEE
TO A T2.5 OR 35 KNOTS. A 260407Z ASCAT PASS ALSO SUGGESTS THE LLCC
HAS STRENGTHENED TO 35 KNOTS. IN ADDITION, A 261112Z SSMI 37H
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
DISTINCT LLCC. CURRENTLY THE CYCLONE IS VENTING TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS TROUGH ALSO
APPEARS RESPONSIBLE FOR BOUTS OF ELEVATED VWS. LESS THAN SIX HOURS
AGO THE LLCC HAD BEEN FULLY EXPOSED TO THE EAST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION. SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS VWS GRADUALLY EASES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH
DOWNSTREAM. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH, THEN
TRANSFER TO ANOTHER STEERING RIDGE FURTHER TO THE WEST AS THE MID-
LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE TROUGH PASSES AROUND TAU 48. VWS IS AGAIN
EXPECTED TO ELEVATE NEAR DAY 4 AND WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
AND BEGIN TO TAPER NEAR 20S. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF
A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 252251Z OCT 10 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTXS21 PGTW 252300)MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 9
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270300Z AND 271500Z.//
NNNN
Adjuntos
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TS 01S 261020101200.gif

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Tincho
Mensajes: 1733
Registrado: Mié Ago 26, 2009 10:40 pm

Re: Tormenta tropical 01S

Mensajepor Tincho » Mar Oct 26, 2010 3:23 pm

de a uno empiezan a aparecer en todo el mundo, talvez la circulacion del oceano se potencio.. buenos datos mauricio


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