Ciclón tropical 1 (Bahía de Bengala)

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matute_bow
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Ciclón tropical 1 (Bahía de Bengala)

Mensajepor matute_bow » Mar May 18, 2010 8:35 am

Bueno, que lindo se ve este sistema (a ver si le ponen nombre caraj* ajajajajaja :lol: :lol: :lol: ) y que simétrico, con tremenda convección profunda, aunque no se puede esperar otra cosa en ese zona, con la tropopausa a 18 km de altura, esos topes deben de estar superando los 20 kilómetros.

Los tnúmeros mantienen al sistema en 3.0 / 3.0 y los pronósticos lo dan huracán en 48 horas más o menos. La cortante vertical del viento del Este esta en unos 20 nudos, pero no parecen estar molestando tanto al sistema, asi que no me extrañaría que se intensifique un poco más de lo previsto!

Les dejo la imagen de la mañana!, saludosss :D

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ni201001.gif
"-cuando estábamos jugando yo y Kiko-.-el burro por delante-.-aaa, pase usted!- JAJAJAJAJAJA, amo el chavo!, ajajajaja

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Re: Ciclón tropical 1 (Bahía de Bengala)

Mensajepor MAURICIO DE BRAGADO » Mar May 18, 2010 10:07 am

1) SATELITE A LAS 1230Z (18/05/2010)
2) TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA DE ACUERDO AL JTWC:
3) CIRCULACION EN TORNO A 01B
Adjuntos
TS 01B 180520101230.gif
TS 01B 1805520100600 TRAY JTWC.gif
TC 01B 180520101200 CAMPO WIND.gif

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Re: Ciclón tropical 1 (Bahía de Bengala)

Mensajepor MAURICIO DE BRAGADO » Mar May 18, 2010 3:12 pm

LA TORMENTA TROPICAL (LAILA) 01B SE INTENSIFICA

WTIO31 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (LAILA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (LAILA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 13.2N 83.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2N 83.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 14.0N 82.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 15.0N 81.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 16.2N 81.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 17.5N 81.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 19.6N 83.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 21.7N 86.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 23.1N 89.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 13.4N 83.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (LAILA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM EAST
OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD MOTION AND TRACKED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER HAS TIGHTENED. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON AN
181050Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5 FROM PGTW AND T3.0 FROM KNES, AND
SUPPORTED BY NEARBY SHIP OBSERVATIONS. TC 01B IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK
NORTH-WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN RECURVE NORTH TO
NORTHEASTWARD AS THE STR REORIENTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER CENTRAL INDIA
AFTER TAU 36. THE MAJORITY OF THE AVAILABLE MODELS (NOGAPS, GFDN,
EGRR AND ECMWF) ARE IN OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK. GFS AND
WBAR ARE LEFT OF THE TRACK ENVELOPE. TC LAILA IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY UP TO TAU 36 BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL SOUTH OF KAKINADA,
THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF INDIA, ALTHOUGH
MAINTAINING TC INTENSITY DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE
FROM THE BAY OF BENGAL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY WEAKEN INTO A
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE BEFORE IT CROSSES INTO BANGLADESH BY TAU 120.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 182100Z, 190300Z, 190900Z AND 191500Z.//
NNNN
Adjuntos
TS LAILA 01B 180520101200 TRAY JTWC.gif

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Re: Ciclón tropical 1 (Bahía de Bengala)

Mensajepor MAURICIO DE BRAGADO » Mié May 19, 2010 9:46 am

EL CICLON (LAILA) 01B

WTIO31 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (LAILA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (LAILA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 13.7N 81.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7N 81.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 14.4N 80.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 15.1N 80.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 15.8N 81.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 16.4N 81.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 18.4N 83.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 20.7N 86.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 22.5N 91.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 13.9N 81.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (LAILA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 70 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 01B HAS MAINTAINED ITS CONVECTIVE
SIGNATURE AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE MORE POLEWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON A 190208Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE
AND FROM A RADAR REFLECTIVITY IMAGE FROM CHENNAI. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE HIGH END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM
45 KNOTS (DEMS AND KNES) TO 65 KNOTS (PGTW). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER EASTERN ASIA. TC 01B IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWARD TO
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AS THE STR RE-ORIENTS IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE ARE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK WITH WBAR AND
GFS TO THE LEFT AND TCLAPS TO THE RIGHT OF THE ENVELOPE. TC LAILA IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR TAU 36 AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT
TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF INDIA. BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL
BE BELOW 35-KNOT INTENSITY BEFORE IT DRIFTS INTO NORTHERN BAY OF
BENGAL AND DISSIPATE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS
15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191500Z, 192100Z, 200300Z AND 200900Z.
//
NNNN
Adjuntos
TC LAILA 01B 190520100900 TRAY JTWC.gif

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Laila causes misery in Prakasam, likely to move into the sea

Mensajepor meteoro » Vie May 21, 2010 12:10 pm

The severe cyclonic storm, `Laila', weakened into a cyclonic storm and remained practically stationary near Machilipatnam in Andhra Pradesh on Friday morning, causing very heavy rains in Krishna, West Godavari, East Godavari and Visakhapatnam districts.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said `Laila' is likely to weaken gradually and move initially in a northerly direction and then recurve into a northeasterly direction towards Orissa. It has forecast widespread rainfall over north coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana during the next 24 hours and gale force wind with speed reaching 75-85 kmph along and off the coast during the next 12 hours.

The death toll in the cyclone rains went up to 17 ( seven in Krishna, four in Nellore, three in Guntur, two in East Godavari and One in Prakasam). Three fishemen were still missing, two in Krishna and one in East Godavari.

As a result of unabated battering by heavy rains, several housing colonies and an APSRTC bus depot came under waist deep water at Vijayawada.

A picture of human misery unfolded in Prakasam district which bore the brunt of the fury on Thursday. Thousands of families were rendered homeless following inundation of many villages and towns.

Although the Kolkata-Chennai highway passing through Ongole town was fully restored, vehicular traffic was held up at some places as water flowed over the road. Several rivulets, including Gundlakamma and Pothuraju Kalva, rose suddenly, flooding neighbouring villages.

Ongole town, which is the district headquarters of Prakasam, had to go without power supply following breakdown of transformers and substations. Power utilities commenced a massive operation to restore power supply.

Many villages in the district reported record levels of rainfall, with Addanki receiving 522 mm during the 24-hour period ending 8.30 am Friday.

Chief Minister K. Rosaiah, who revewed the situation with ministers and officials, postponed an aerial survey of Prakasam district that he planned yesterday due to inclement weather. Likewise, none of the nine helicopters positioned for rescue and relief operations at Visakhapatnam and Hyderabad could take off to Ongole. About 300 army personnel have been despatched to Ongole to assist in rescue and relief operations.

Briefing reporters, Revenue Minister D. Prasada Rao said over 71,000 people were being sheltered in 300 relief camps in the affected districts. Crops over 30,000 acres were damaged. Similarly, 262 boats were lost and 1,460 others damaged.
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ciclones 21 may c.jpg
ciclones 21 may d.jpg

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meteoro
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TOP 10 lluvias

Mensajepor meteoro » Vie May 21, 2010 12:28 pm

Lluvias en 24 hs, medidas a 12 UTC
Primer puesto para "ONGOLE" en el estado de ANDHRA PRADESH
Otras ciudades de la INDIA nombradas están en la misma zona, excepto
RATMALANA, que está bien al Sur (frente a Sri Lanka)
AGARTALA, al NE, en la zona "Cherrapunji"
Ver también la importancia de las lluvias en BANGLADESH (país que está al NE DE INDIA)
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india.JPG

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meteoro
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LAILA ACTUALIZADO

Mensajepor meteoro » Vie May 21, 2010 12:56 pm

LAILA
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Ciclon.gif

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Re: TOP 10 lluvias

Mensajepor diego45 » Vie May 21, 2010 4:48 pm

meteoro escribió:Lluvias en 24 hs, medidas a 12 UTC
Primer puesto para "ONGOLE" en el estado de ANDHRA PRADESH
Otras ciudades de la INDIA nombradas están en la misma zona, excepto
RATMALANA, que está bien al Sur (frente a Sri Lanka)
AGARTALA, al NE, en la zona "Cherrapunji"
Ver también la importancia de las lluvias en BANGLADESH (país que está al NE DE INDIA)

Más de 300mm en 24 horas... :o :shock:
Diego


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