El tiempo en NORTEAMÉRICA

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Cristofer
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensaje por Cristofer »

Dos cazatormentas fallecieron hoy en un accidente de transito mientras perseguían un tornado en Texas. Las víctimas fueron identificadas como Kelley Williamson y Randy Yarnall, ambos trabajaban para The Weather Channel.
No te olvides de visitar: AFICIONADOS A LA METEOROLOGIA ARGENTINA
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daros22
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensaje por daros22 »

Riesgo de tornados para el limite de Mexico - EE.UU, alarmas sonando en Ciudad acuña.

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Imagen
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stormchaserAlberto
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensaje por stormchaserAlberto »

Otro dia mas de tiempo severo.
Imagen
% de tornados.
Spoiler
Imagen
% de vientos.
Spoiler
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% de granizo.
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Spoiler
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1147 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Valid 291630Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
OZARKS/LOWER MO VALLEY SOUTHWARD TO LA/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
OZARKS/LOWER MO VALLEY SOUTHWARD TO LA/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST
TX/SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS TO MS RIVER VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected later today into tonight from
parts of east Texas, eastern Oklahoma, and southeast Kansas into the
lower and middle Mississippi Valley. Large hail, tornadoes, and
damaging winds will be possible especially late this afternoon and
tonight.

...Ozarks/lower MO Valley to ArkLaTex/lower MS River Valley...
The closed upper trough currently over the south-central Plains at
late morning will continue a slow-general-northeastward advance
toward the lower MO River Valley through late tonight and early
Thursday. Ahead of this system, 12Z regional observed soundings
reflected considerable lapse-rate-related impacts from the
overnight/early morning squall line that continues to move generally
east-northeastward and decay across the Ozarks and Ark-La-Tex
vicinity. This may have ramifications on the
extensiveness/likelihood of significant hail potential, for
instance, although the air mass will recover/gradually moisten and
destabilize to the south of a northward-moving warm front across the
Ozarks/lower MO Valley, and ahead (east) of a slow-eastward-moving
cold front.

Latest thinking is that surface-based storms will develop as early
as mid-afternoon near the eastern KS surface low southward along the
front, including far eastern portions of KS/OK into western portions
of MO/AR. Moderate low-level hodograph curvature (beneath strong but
somewhat backed mid-level southwesterly winds) and resultant strong
low-level shear/SRH will support a tornado risk aside from large
hail and evolving damaging wind risk into this evening.

Farther south, storms may diurnally be a bit more isolated across
the remainder of the ArkLaTex vicinity, although an ongoing
quasi-linear cluster across near-coastal southeast TX may persist
east-northeastward into LA as it favors a zone of outflow-related
weak boundary/zone of differential heating. This cluster and other
peripheral development may pose a damaging wind/tornado risk through
the afternoon and evening hours.

Later tonight, storms should increase in coverage/intensity
initially across portions of AR/LA as forcing for ascent/DPVA
increases related to an east/northeastward-ejecting vorticity maxima
within the base of the larger-scale trough. Related mass response
should result in increasingly strong low-level winds/confluence. A
mixed mode of storms should be prevalent, with hail initially
possible prior to a more common damaging wind/embedded tornado risk
as storms toward/across the MS River late tonight.

..Guyer.. 03/29/2017
Se actualiza a las 20:00z.
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stormchaserAlberto
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensaje por stormchaserAlberto »

Actualización del convective outlook.
Imagen
% de tornados.
Spoiler
Imagen
% de vientos.
Spoiler
Imagen[/img]
% de granizo.
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Imagen
Discusion.
Spoiler
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Valid 292000Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS OZARKS...

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EAST TEXAS AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OZARK PLATEAU...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
SLIGHT RISK...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into tonight from
parts of east Texas, eastern Oklahoma, and southeast Kansas into the
lower and middle Mississippi Valley. Large hail, tornadoes, and
damaging winds will be possible especially later this afternoon and
tonight.

...discussion...
The biggest substantial changes have been dictated in part to
upper-air raob data from LZK (19z raob) and short-term model trends
(time-lagged HRRR model). Have confined the 10-percent tornado to
the Ozarks and in a corridor from the lower Sabine Valley
northeastward into northeastern LA and far west-central MS. Have
removed the significant tornado delineation based on instability
concerns and prior convective overturning earlier today and recent
surface analysis displaying a slower-than-expected recovery.

..Smith.. 03/29/2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1147 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017/

...Ozarks/lower MO Valley to ArkLaTex/lower MS River Valley...
The closed upper trough currently over the south-central Plains at
late morning will continue a slow-general-northeastward advance
toward the lower MO River Valley through late tonight and early
Thursday. Ahead of this system, 12Z regional observed soundings
reflected considerable lapse-rate-related impacts from the
overnight/early morning squall line that continues to move generally
east-northeastward and decay across the Ozarks and Ark-La-Tex
vicinity. This may have ramifications on the
extensiveness/likelihood of significant hail potential, for
instance, although the air mass will recover/gradually moisten and
destabilize to the south of a northward-moving warm front across the
Ozarks/lower MO Valley, and ahead (east) of a slow-eastward-moving
cold front.

Latest thinking is that surface-based storms will develop as early
as mid-afternoon near the eastern KS surface low southward along the
front, including far eastern portions of KS/OK into western portions
of MO/AR. Moderate low-level hodograph curvature (beneath strong but
somewhat backed mid-level southwesterly winds) and resultant strong
low-level shear/SRH will support a tornado risk aside from large
hail and evolving damaging wind risk into this evening.

Farther south, storms may diurnally be a bit more isolated across
the remainder of the ArkLaTex vicinity, although an ongoing
quasi-linear cluster across near-coastal southeast TX may persist
east-northeastward into LA as it favors a zone of outflow-related
weak boundary/zone of differential heating. This cluster and other
peripheral development may pose a damaging wind/tornado risk through
the afternoon and evening hours.

Later tonight, storms should increase in coverage/intensity
initially across portions of AR/LA as forcing for ascent/DPVA
increases related to an east/northeastward-ejecting vorticity maxima
within the base of the larger-scale trough. Related mass response
should result in increasingly strong low-level winds/confluence. A
mixed mode of storms should be prevalent, with hail initially
possible prior to a more common damaging wind/embedded tornado risk
as storms toward/across the MS River late tonight.
Proxima actualizacion: 01:00z.
Les dejo los ultimos mesoscale discussion del dia.
Imagen
Spoiler
Mesoscale Discussion 0365
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0121 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Areas affected...Southern OK

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 96...

Valid 290621Z - 290745Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 96
continues.

SUMMARY...Northern portion of an extensive QLCS should continue
northeast across southern OK and southeast portions of WW 97. Strong
wind gusts are the predominant threat with this line, with the
overall severe threat appearing limited. Downstream WW issuance is
unlikely.

DISCUSSION...An extensive QLCS is ongoing from southwest OK to the
Rio Grande in south-central TX. Recent movement of the northern
portion of the QLCS has slowed to around 30-35 kt suggesting the
line may not approach the edge of WW 97 until near 09Z. 06Z surface
analysis indicated a pocket of relatively lower dew points along the
Red River into far northeast TX. Thus, the northern part of the QLCS
could further weaken in the short-term. However, a plume of lower to
middle 60s surface dew points lingers across southeast OK near the
warm front. RAP-based mesoanalysis indicates comparatively weaker
MLCIN within this corridor as well. It remains possible that
embedded portions of the QLCS that are more perpendicular to the
mean wind could intensify as they approach the edge of WW 97, given
strengthening deep-layer winds with an impinging 500-mb jet.
Overall, the probability of severe gusts should remain low.

..Grams/Dial.. 03/29/2017
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Spoiler
Mesoscale Discussion 0366
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0254 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Areas affected...Northeast TX and far southeast OK

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 96...97...

Valid 290754Z - 290930Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 96, 97
continues.

SUMMARY...An increasingly confined corridor for strong to embedded
severe wind gusts is anticipated as a bowing QLCS over the Metroplex
approaches the Red River. Downstream WW issuance is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Primary zone of strong to embedded severe wind gusts
within an extensive QLCS from central OK to south-central TX exists
within the bowing portion of the line currently traversing the
Metroplex and adjacent north-central TX. Air mass downstream towards
the Red River is characterized by lower surface dew points from the
upper 50s to lower 60s and weak buoyancy relative to farther south.
With a decreasing reflectivity gradient to the south of the bow,
likely due to continued ingest of large MLCIN, the overall area of
strong to embedded severe wind gusts should decrease in the next few
hours.

..Grams/Dial.. 03/29/2017
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Spoiler
Mesoscale Discussion 0367
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0828 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Areas affected...Southeast Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 291328Z - 291430Z

CORRECTED FOR WORDING IN THE SUMMARY PARAGRAPH

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat is expected to move across
southeast Texas over the next few hours. A few damaging wind gusts
and perhaps a brief tornado may occur with short bowing line
segments. However, the severe threat should remain marginal for WW
issuance.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows a continuous line of
thunderstorms located from about 40 statute miles west of Houston
extending south southwestward to the vicinity of Victoria. The line
appears to be located along an old outflow boundary. Ahead of this
line, a moist airmass is present with surface dewpoints in the upper
60s F with moderate instability in place (MLCAPE of 1000 to 1500
J/kg). The line of storms is being supported by a subtle shortwave
trough moving around an upper-level low in the southern high Plains
and this will help maintain the line as it moves across the
remainder of southeast Texas over the next few hours. Concerning the
environment, the Houston WSR-88D VWP shows substantial directional
shear in the boundary layer with ample speed shear above 2 km AGL.
This is resulting in about 70 kt of 0-6 km shear suggesting storm
organization will be possible with this convection. The current
thinking is that this line will continue to have an isolated severe
threat and that a few damaging wind gusts will occur as the line
moves across the Houston area. A brief tornado can also not be ruled
out but low-level shear appears to be marginal for a more sustained
tornado threat.

..Broyles/Guyer.. 03/29/2017
Imagen
Spoiler
Mesoscale Discussion 0368
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Areas affected...Southeast Texas into western Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 291831Z - 292100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Storms may strengthen later today into the evening with a
tornado risk along with locally damaging winds. A watch could be
required later this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A leading line of cells approaching the Sabine river is
currently weakening, while new cells continue to evolve to the west
near dying/mixing outflow boundaries. Here, the cap is locally
weaker as well as compared to points east, although the 18Z LCH
sounding shows a dramatic increase in low-level moisture and
weakened capping inversion.

Strong southwesterly flow aloft will continue to overspread the
area, with main surface low well to the north. Southerly 850 mb flow
around 25-35 kt will be maintained, and change little through 00Z.
As the trough approaches, a boost to low-level convergence will
occur and help to eventually push this cluster of cells eastward
across LA.

In the short term, it appears the severe threat will be driven by
the storm scale, with merging cells eventually becoming supercells
as gradual destabilization occurs and meso lows form, also locally
backing surface winds and maintaining favorable low-level shear.
Indeed VWPs show better backing at 850 mb in closer proximity to the
storm cluster, with less favorable shear farther east into LA. The
air mass remains very moist, with impressive lapse rates aloft.
Although widespread severe is not expected, a small corridor may
certainly develop a supercell tornado risk this afternoon through
evening.

..Jewell/Guyer.. 03/29/2017
Imagen
Spoiler
Mesoscale Discussion 0369
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Areas affected...Northeast Oklahoma...Northwest Arkansas...Southwest
Missouri...Southeast Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 291951Z - 292215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A severe threat appears likely to develop over the next
couple of hours across southeast Kansas, far northeast Oklahoma,
northwest Arkansas and southwest Missouri. Initially, wind damage
and isolated large hail will be possible as cells strengthen but a
tornado threat could develop by late afternoon. WW issuance will
likely be needed across the region, potentially by 21Z.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a 1002 mb low over
southeast Kansas with a warm front extending east southeastward from
the low across southwest Missouri. A corridor of low-level moisture
exists along the warm front where surface dewpoints are near 60 F.
Surface warming has been slow today along and south of the front but
RAP data suggests that instability has started to increase more over
the last hour or so. MLCAPE values are now estimated to be
approaching 500 J/kg across the MCD area. In addition, low-level
convergence has increased over the last couple of hours along the
warm front which has resulted in convective initiation across
east-central Kansas. Other storms are expected to initiate along the
warm front in southern Missouri and further south in northwest
Arkansas over the next hour or two.

Concerning the environment, a 70 to 85 kt mid-level jet is analyzed
across eastern Oklahoma with the exit region into far southeast
Kansas. This feature was enhancing lift and creating strong
deep-layer shear which will be favorable for severe storm
development. Initially, short line segments and discrete cell
clusters may produce isolated damaging wind gusts and hail. As cells
mature late this afternoon, supercells with a tornado threat should
develop especially with storms that can interact with the warm front
in southwest Missouri. A severe threat is also possible southward
across far northeastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas
especially as lift increases due to a strengthening low-level jet.

..Broyles.. 03/29/2017
Imagen
Spoiler
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 98
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
210 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Western Louisiana
Southeast Texas
Coastal Waters

* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 210 PM
until 900 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...The environment across the region continues to become
increasingly favorable for a severe risk including the possibility
of a couple of tornadoes. Storms should continue to gradually
increase and expand northeastward through the late afternoon and
evening hours.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
north and south of a line from 45 miles north northwest of Galveston
TX to 30 miles east southeast of Fort Polk LA. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean
storm motion vector 24025.

...Guyer
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stormchaserAlberto
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensaje por stormchaserAlberto »

Imagen
Spoiler
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 99
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
350 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Eastern Kansas
Western and south-central Missouri

* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 350 PM
until 1100 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...The air mass continues to gradually destabilize to the
east of a surface low and along/south of a northward-spreading warm
front across eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Severe hail may be
the most common risk initially. With time, a tornado risk may
increase particularly across parts of western/southern Missouri
where damaging winds will also be a concern.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles
east and west of a line from 10 miles east northeast of Olathe KS to
50 miles south southeast of Springfield MO. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU9).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 98...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 20035.

...Guyer
Imagen
Spoiler
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 100
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
420 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Western and northern Arkansas
Far eastern Oklahoma
Far northeast Texas

* Effective this Wednesday afternoon from 420 PM until Midnight
CDT.

* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Increasing convection currently focused across western
Arkansas should continue to intensify through the remainder of the
afternoon into this evening. Some severe hail will initially be
possible, with an early-evening increase of low-level shear
supportive of a tornado/damaging wind risk as well.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
east and west of a line from 15 miles north northeast of Harrison AR
to 30 miles south southwest of Texarkana AR. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 98...WW 99...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 23035.

...Guyer
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stormchaserAlberto
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensaje por stormchaserAlberto »

Discusion a meso-escala N* 370.
Imagen
Spoiler
Mesoscale Discussion 0370
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0550 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Areas affected...Portions of LA...western MS...southeast AR

Concerning...Tornado Watch 98...

Valid 292250Z - 300045Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 98 continues.

SUMMARY...The risk for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes continues
across Tornado Watch 98, and will spread east-northeastward and
northeastward through the evening and overnight hours. An additional
Watch will likely be required prior to the 02Z expiration of Watch
98.

DISCUSSION...Clusters of thunderstorms, including embedded rotating
updrafts and bowing segments, continue in the vicinity of the lower
Sabine Valley. Inflow for this activity is characterized by around
500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE (higher buoyancy amid richer moisture with
southward extent), based on modifications to the 18Z Lake Charles
and Shreveport observed soundings. This activity lies within the
warm sector of a broader extratropical cyclone, within which modest
positive theta-e advection will continue during the next several
hours.

As a result, convection will continue to spread east-northeastward
and northeastward into the evening and overnight hours. This will
occur while ascent attendant to the right-entrance region of a
midlevel speed maximum encourages both (1) the maintenance of at
least modest instability, and (2) a low-level mass response
supporting moderate low-level shear and isentropic ascent. Moreover,
with 40-55 kt of effective shear attendant to the speed maximum,
organized convective modes will continue to be favored.

While damaging winds and sporadic severe hail will be the primary
concerns with this activity, tornado potential will exist with
embedded supercell structures and meso-vortices. This would
especially be the case as strengthening low-level shear juxtaposes
increasing boundary-layer theta-e through the night. Accordingly, a
new watch will likely be issued from parts of southern LA to the
ArkLaMiss region prior to the expiration of Tornado Watch 98.

..Cohen/Edwards.. 03/29/2017
371.
Imagen
Spoiler
Mesoscale Discussion 0371
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0608 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Areas affected...PORTIONS OF THE OZARKS AND VICINITY

Concerning...Tornado Watch 99...

Valid 292308Z - 300045Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 99 continues.

SUMMARY...A gradual increase in the threat for tornadoes and
damaging winds may materialize across parts of southern/central
Missouri over the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite and radar data early this evening
depict growing convection within the warm sector across the Ozarks
and vicinity. Within bands of persistent pre-frontal confluence
here, more vigorous, deeper updrafts should organize this evening,
aided by an uptick in southerly low-level flow across
central/eastern Missouri. In response to very modest near-surface
moisture advection from the south/southeast and gradual cooling
aloft, MLCAPE values upwards of 500-1000 J/kg may be realized.
Despite narrow buoyancy, amplifying low-level shear will potentially
favor a greater tornado threat over eastern portions of the tornado
watch this evening, especially as cells approach the warm front. As
such, an eastward expansion of the ongoing watch could be needed
across the Springfield, MO CWA.

Farther northwest, thunderstorms have organized near the Kansas City
metro area in response to large-scale ascent related to the main
mid-level vorticity maximum. A few of these cells may briefly pose a
threat for severe hail after crossing north of the warm front this
evening. However, this threat should remain brief/marginal north of
the ongoing watch.

Lastly, isolated cells developing along frontal convergence across
northeast Oklahoma may briefly reach severe limits as they interact
with ample deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates. This
convection should remain sparse in coverage as it evolves into
southwestern portions of the ongoing tornado watch this evening.

..Picca.. 03/29/2017
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensaje por stormchaserAlberto »

Imagen
Spoiler
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 101
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
720 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Extreme southeastern Arkansas
Southwestern through northeastern Louisiana
Western Mississippi
Coastal Waters

* Effective this Wednesday night and Thursday morning from 720 PM
until 300 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...The threat for severe weather, with clusters of
thunderstorms, is expected to spread northeastward across the watch
area through the remainder of this evening and overnight, before
diminishing late tonight. A few tornadoes are possible, along with
damaging winds and isolated large hail. See SPC mesoscale
discussion 370 for initial meteorological details.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
east and west of a line from 40 miles west southwest of Intracoastal
City LA to 25 miles northeast of Greenville MS. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...This tornado watch replaces tornado
watch number 98. Watch number 98 will not be in effect after 720
PM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 99...WW 100...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
storm motion vector 23030.

...Edwards
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensaje por stormchaserAlberto »

Imagen
Spoiler
Mesoscale Discussion 0372
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0734 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Areas affected...PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS...WESTERN/CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...AND FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA

Concerning...Tornado Watch 100...

Valid 300034Z - 300200Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 100 continues.

SUMMARY...Some potential for occasional damaging winds and a tornado
or two continues across eastern portions of the watch. Farther
southwest near the Arklatex, thunderstorms may increase in coverage
through the evening, with a conditional threat for a few damaging
wind gusts and perhaps a tornado.

DISCUSSION...The ongoing threat for damaging winds and a couple
tornadoes is focused over northeastern portions of Tornado Watch 100
this evening. Several cells in this area have exhibited supercell
structures, with occasional mid/low-level rotation noted on regional
radars. The 00Z LZK sounding as well as recent VWP data indicate
sufficient veering of low-level flow with height, supportive of
occasional rotation as these cells interact with a corridor of upper
50s/lower 60s dew points. This zone of favorably backed surface flow
ahead of ongoing convection should continuing shifting northeast
towards Missouri over the next few hours, with the resultant spatial
maximum in tornado/damaging-wind potential also gradually lifting
into Missouri later this evening.

Farther southwest, sustained convection has struggled to organize
near the Arklatex, likely due to some subsidence aloft in the wake
of prior ascent. However, as another wave of ascent rotates around
the main trough and reaches the region late this evening,
moistening/cooling aloft may sustain more organized convection, with
an attendant threat for a few damaging wind gusts and perhaps a
tornado.

..Picca.. 03/30/2017
Imagen
Spoiler
Mesoscale Discussion 0373
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Areas affected...PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 300052Z - 300145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms should spread
into the discussion area over the next few hours, with an attendant
threat for a few damaging wind gusts, a couple tornadoes, and
occasional instances of severe hail.

DISCUSSION...As large-scale ascent related to the upper-level jet
continues to spread across the region, thunderstorms have increased
in coverage across portions of northern Arkansas and
southern/central Missouri. These storms are reaching the eastern
extent of ongoing Watch 99 at present. While the moist unstable
sector does not extend much beyond the eastern edge of the ongoing
watch, a corridor of favorably backed surface flow and dew points in
the upper 50s/lower 60s does exist across southeastern Missouri. As
such, veering winds with height and sufficient buoyancy will support
some severe threat east of the current watch, and watch issuance is
likely within the next hour or so.

..Picca/Edwards.. 03/30/2017
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Lucas de Zárate
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Registrado: Lun Jul 13, 2009 8:38 pm
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensaje por Lucas de Zárate »

Jojo re fanatico, bien ahi alberto :p
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stormchaserAlberto
Mensajes: 9308
Registrado: Jue Feb 20, 2014 2:34 am
Ubicación: Río Tercero,Córdoba.

Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensaje por stormchaserAlberto »

Imagen
Spoiler
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 102
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
820 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southeastern abnd east-central Missouri

* Effective this Wednesday night and Thursday morning from 820 PM
until 300 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...A narrow corridor of severe-thunderstorm potential -- the
risk for large hail, isolated damaging wind and a couple tornadoes
-- may spread northeastward from the domain of tornado watch 99 into
a warm-frontal zone. Refer to SPC mesoscale discussion 373 for
initial meteorological details.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles
east and west of a line from 70 miles south of Farmington MO to 35
miles east of Jefferson City MO. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 99...WW 100...WW 101...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
storm motion vector 24035.

...Edwards
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