Evento severo planicies centrales USA 22/05 --> 24/05

[Gonza(Haedo)]

Un par de imágenes de estos cazadores

[matute_bow]

Un evento SIGNIFICATIVO de tiempo severo puede presentarse esta tarde y esta noche sobre las planicies del Norte de Estados Unidos!. Una profunda onda corta, bloqueada por un anticiclón, se moverá sobre la zona y es por eso que la misma presenta riesgo moderado (que puede ser alto más tarde)

Miren la onda corta en 500 hPa para esta noche:


Y miren los campos de 4 paneles, REALMENTE el flujo de capas bajas es IMPRESIONANTE!


Les dejo la discusión de ellos, se va a poner lindo hoy por estos pagos de nuevo!

...SYNOPSIS...
MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA PIVOTING THROUGH THE BASE OF A
LARGER SCALE TROUGH SYSTEM THAT HAS DOMINATED THE WRN STATES FOR
SEVERAL DAYS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK AND
EVOLUTION OF THIS DISTURBANCE...TAKING THE SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
75-80KT MID LEVEL JET STREAK RAPIDLY NEWD TO THE NEB PANHANDLE AREA
BY 00Z THIS EVENING...AND THEN CLOSING OFF A 500MB LOW OVER NERN MT
BY TUESDAY MORNING. INTENSE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL
OVERSPREAD THE CNTRL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES ON A PRONOUNCED NEGATIVE TILT
AND DRIVES SIGNIFICANT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS.

RESULTING SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY WHILE TRACKING ALMOST DUE
NORTH FROM NERN CO TO WRN ND THROUGH THIS EVENING. WARM
FRONT...CURRENTLY SITUATED FROM NEB PNHDL TO ERN SD TO CNTRL
MN...WILL RETREAT QUICKLY NWD ACROSS THE REST OF SD AND INTO ND BY
EVENING. TRAILING DRY LINE WILL MAKE SOME PROGRESS EAST FROM ERN
CO/NM THIS MORNING...INTO KS AND NEB THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND
THEN PERHAPS SURGING EWD ACROSS NEB AND NRN KS LATER TODAY AS THE
LOW INTENSIFIES TO THE NORTH.

FARTHER SOUTH...DRY LINE ADVANCE WILL LIKELY BE SLOWER DUE TO LARGE
MERIDIONAL COMPONENT TO THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW.

ELSEWHERE...A BLOCKING ANTICYCLONE WILL TAKE FORM FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND. SOUTH OF THE CLOSED ANTICYCLONE AT 500MB...A
WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKING SOUTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WILL
BECOME ABSORBED BY LARGER DEEP-LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION DRIFTING
SHOREWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC.

...CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS...
AN EXTENSIVE AND VERY MOIST WARM SECTOR AIR MASS LIES IN WAIT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE HIGH PLAINS DRY
LINE AND SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT. PW VALUES OF 1.00
TO 1.50 INCHES EXIST ACROSS THE REGION AND LATEST RAOBS DEPICT STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MINIMAL INHIBITION/CAPPING IN PLACE.

INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE REGION WITH EARLY
DAYTIME HEATING AND EXPECT SBCAPE OF 1500-3000 J/KG WITHIN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. GIVEN THIS DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION AND QUICK ARRIVAL OF
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS EMERGING FROM THE SRN CNTRL
ROCKIES...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY TO BE WELL UNDERWAY BY
18Z FROM CO/KS BORDER TO SERN WY AND PERHAPS NEB. STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS COMBINATION OF
CONTINUED DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND STRONG ASCENT ACT TO OVERCOME
ANY REMAINING INHIBITION.

STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER SLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR
WITH MEAN WIND NEARING 60KT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAST STORM MOTIONS
AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR NEWD TRACKING SUPERCELLS. MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE FROM KS TO SRN NEB
SUGGESTS THAT TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
CONVECTION. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT COLD FRONT/DRY LINE SURGE
INTO NRN KS AND SRN NEB BY EVENING MAY RESULT IN THE EVENTUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF A BOWING SQUALL LINE WITH SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN WIND
DAMAGE POTENTIAL.

GREATER TORNADO THREAT SHOULD EVOLVE NEAR THE WARM FRONT AND
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW...FROM NWRN NEB ACROSS SD THIS AFTERNOON.
AGAIN...MAGNITUDE OF THE OVERALL FLOW WILL RESULT IN VERY FAST STORM
MOTIONS AROUND 50KT. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE AND INTENSE SHEAR
COINCIDENT WITH SUCH A VOLATILE AIR MASS AND FORCING STRONGLY
SUGGEST TORNADIC SUPERCELLS AND VERY LARGE HAIL. EXPECT THIS
POTENTIAL TO EXPAND NWD INTO ND BY EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW AND
WARM FRONT INTENSIFY. A COUPLE OF STRONG AND POSSIBLY LONG-TRACK
TORNADOES APPEAR POSSIBLE GIVEN THE FORECAST SCENARIO.

...SRN PLAINS...
STORM DEVELOPMENT FROM OK/TX PNHDLS SWD TO THE RIO GRANDE MAY BE
MORE SCATTERED THAN FARTHER NORTH. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT FORCING
FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL AT LEAST BRUSH
SOME OF THIS AREA AND...IN COMBINATION WITH DEEP MIXING ON THE DRY
LINE...A FEW TO SEVERAL ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ERUPT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. SUPERCELL HAIL/WIND AND TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
WITH STORMS PRIMARILY ACROSS THE PNHDLS AND ADJACENT PARTS OF TX/OK.
FARTHER SOUTH...GENERALLY WEAKER FLOW SUGGESTS MORE ORGANIZED
MULTICELL STORMS WITH HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

[LisandroSc]

Lo de estados unidos es increible, cada 2x3 tienen eventos severos jajajaj la verdad es de no creer!

Uno antes al no estar tan metido en el tema sabia que era el mejor lugar del mundo para ver tornados y actividad severa, pero ahora que aprendo de como analizas las situaciones vos Mati, es mas increible y sorprendente el clima de ellos! Especialmente en temporada de tormentas.

Que barbaro! A seguirlo tonces

[matute_bow]

Primer tornado watch, ubicado al Sur de la región de riesgo moderado!

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 212
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EASTERN COLORADO
WESTERN KANSAS
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1150 AM UNTIL 800
PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTHWEST OF IMPERIAL
NEBRASKA TO 60 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF AMARILLO TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING LATE THIS MORNING ALONG
THE SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE MOVING EWD ACROSS ERN CO INTO THE WRN TX
PANHANDLE. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROGRESS EWD IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN
EJECTING NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM CO/NRN NM...AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY SHOULD INCREASE AS SURFACE HEATING
ERODES CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN AN ALREADY MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. VERTICAL SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR A BROKEN BAND OF
SUPERCELLS FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER INITIATION...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES. LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE GROWTH
INTO LINE SEGMENTS WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22045.

[matute_bow]

Esta gente empieza a plagar de tornados watch la zona . Impresiona la inclinación negativa de la potente onda corta, así que veremos!

No mandaron un PDS de ped* eh!, porque en la discusión del watch nombran la posibilidad de tornados fuertes!

Se las dejo!

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 213
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 AM MDT MON MAY 24 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN NEBRASKA
WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
EXTREME SOUTHEAST WYOMING

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1120 AM UNTIL 800
PM MDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
MOBRIDGE SOUTH DAKOTA TO 15 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF SIDNEY
NEBRASKA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 212...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS JUST BEGINNING ACROSS
EXTREME NE CO/SE WY AND THE NEB PANHANDLE. THIS CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY EVOLVE INTO DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY...IN ADVANCE OF A NEGATIVE
TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW MOVING NNEWD FROM CO. THE
COMBINATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S AND ENHANCED
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR NEAR THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL ENHANCE THE THREAT
FOR TORNADOES...INCLUDING AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO OR TWO...AS
WELL AS VERY LARGE HAIL. OTHERWISE...CONVECTION MAY EVOLVE MORE
INTO CLUSTERS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES BY LATE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE ADDITIONAL THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 20045.

[Lucas de Zárate]

es increible qe vuele exactamente en el mismo lugar qe voló ayer.... tremendo lo ininterrumpido qe tienen tormentas, y me sigo preguntando si es normal o estan bajo alguna factor como tuvimos nosostros en noviembre....



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[matute_bow]

Como esta reventando por favor!

Ya hay varios tornados warning en la zona!

[LisandroSc]

Hermosa la visible que postiaste Mati!!!

Que lindo se esta poniendo

Edito, para poner algunas imagenes de radar!

[LisandroSc]

Tremendas algunas celditas, entre ellas hay una que tiene tornado warning!

[matute_bow]

Bueno, completaron los watch de punta a punta, ajajajajaja, bien zarpada esta la tarde!