Tiempo Severo EEUU 17-20-22-23 Mayo 2019

[davidstorm]

Buenas.. abro un nuevo topic, se esta hablando mucho del tiempo severo que tendra este fin de semana en EEUU en la region central... dejo algunos post para empezar

[davidstorm]

[davidstorm]

[davidstorm]

Para el Viernes...



SPC AC 150725

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 AM CDT Wed May 15 2019

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are expected across parts of the Plains, mainly from
Nebraska southward into west Texas. Very large hail and a few
tornadoes are possible. Scattered severe hail is also possible
across southern South Dakota, as well as across parts of Ohio and
West Virginia.

...Synopsis...
A large upper trough will move across the Rockies with strong
southwesterly flow aloft overspreading the Plains. Height
falls/cooling aloft will enhance lift, and a moist, unstable air
mass will develop through the period.

Consensus is for low pressure to develop over the CO/KS/NE region,
with a stationary front stretching from northern NE across IA, IL,
OH and WV. Meanwhile, a sharp dryline will develop across western NE
and KS into the eastern OK and TX Panhandles and west TX where it
will remain overnight. Strengthening southerly winds over the Plains
will bring mid 60s F dewpoints north across the entire warm sector,
which will result in areas of strong instability. Lift related to
the aforementioned boundaries should result in a few concentrated
areas of severe storms, with very large hail and few tornadoes
possible.

Elsewhere, sufficient instability will develop along the eastern
extent of the stationary front, beneath modest west/northwest flow
aloft which may support isolated severe storms during the day.

...Northern Plains...
Daytime heating, cooling aloft and moisture advection will result in
2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE ahead of the low and south of the stationary
front. By late afternoon, wind profiles will favor supercells
producing very large hail and tornadoes as SRH increases late in the
day. Numerous storms are possible along the front eventually, and
this could result in a severe MCS with both damaging wind and hail
threat.

North of the front, large hail is possible across much of SD,
northwest IA and southwest MN as the low-level jet maintains strong
elevated instability.

...Southern Plains...
Strong instability will develop along the dryline with daytime
heating and dewpoints increasing into the mid 60s F. A capping
inversion will exist east of the dryline, with development expected
where heating is strongest. Ample deep-layer shear along with
increasing SRH late in the day and overnight will support supercells
capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Storms may not move
very far east until overnight when a larger complex of storms is
forecast from southwest TX into southwest OK, with all modes of
severe possible.

...IA/IL/IN/OH/WV...
A few areas of thunderstorms may be ongoing along this corridor
Friday morning related to warm/moist advection out of the
west/southwest near the front. Instability will generally be
elevated through about 18Z when the air mass become uncapped.
1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE is forecast from IL eastward into WV which
will support a few strong storms redeveloping from eastern IA across
northern IL, IN, over OH and into WV and southwest PA. Hail and wind
will be possible with the strongest storms.

..Jewell.. 05/15/2019

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1131Z (8:31AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[davidstorm]

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0754 AM CDT Fri May 17 2019

Valid 171300Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...AS WELL AS PARTS OF WESTERN
TEXAS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN OHIO
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF MARYLAND AND VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms with very large hail, damaging winds, and a few
tornadoes (a couple of which could be strong) are expected, mainly
from the central High Plains northeastward to the mid Missouri
Valley. Several severe storms -- capable of producing very large
hail and damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes -- will also be
possible across portions of the western half of Texas. Finally,
scattered afternoon storms -- capable of producing locally
gusty/damaging winds will be possible from Ohio through the Middle
Atlantic region.

...Synopsis...
Large-scale upper trough over the western U.S. will shift eastward
through Friday night as a pronounced jet streak becomes established
over the central/southern Plains. A strengthening surface low over
northeast CO/western NE, along with the eastward progression of the
upper trough, will result in strengthening low/mid-tropospheric wind
fields and favorable deep-layer shear for organized/severe storms.
A warm front will extend east from the surface low, transitioning
into a cold front across the OH Valley/mid-Atlantic region, while a
surface dryline extends southward across western portions of KS/TX
by late afternoon. Lower/mid-60s surface dew points will be
transported northward beneath an expansive EML, resulting in
moderate/strong surface-based instability by afternoon.

...Central Plains/mid Missouri Valley Region...
Strong/isolated severe storms will remain possible this morning
vicinity of southern IA where a modest/veering low-level jet has
resulted in warm advection/lift in the 700-800 mb layer. MUCAPE of
500-1000 J/kg supports some risk for hail.

Large-scale ascent with the upper trough and left exit region of the
aforementioned jet streak should contribute to severe thunderstorm
development near/north of the warm front and surface low over
southeast WY/northeast CO this afternoon. A supercell mode will be
favored with a risk for very large hail, damaging winds and some
tornado risk. With time, additional thunderstorm development is
anticipated across western/central NE aided by strong low-level warm
advection near the warm front as the surface low moves northeast.
With strong deep-layer shear and effective SRH at or above 300 m2/s2
near the warm front, supercell storm mode will initially be favored
with a risk for a few tornadoes, a couple of which could be strong,
very large hail, and damaging winds. Upscale growth into an MCS
north of the front should occur this evening, with large hail as the
primary risk.

Farther south along the dryline, warm mid-level temperatures at the
base of the EML should result in very sparse storm coverage, however
given the favorable large-scale environment, a conditional risk for
very large hail/damaging gusts and possibly a tornado will exist
with any storm that develops.

...Southern Plains...
Diurnal heating of a moist air mass (upper 60s surface dew points)
and steep mid-level lapse rates will result in strong surface-based
instability and gradually diminishing CINH by late afternoon. A
conditional severe risk with all severe hazards possible will exist
with any storm that can develop along the dryline over the eastern
TX Panhandle/far western OK this afternoon. Lift associated with a
perturbation lifting northeast across eastern NM/West Texas should
contribute to thunderstorm development by evening across southwest
TX, with an initial supercell mode evolving into a linear/bowing
storm mode overnight as storms move into north/northwest TX and
southwest OK. The more discrete storm phase will see a risk for very
large hail, damaging winds and a couple tornadoes, with damaging
winds potentially a greater concern late associated with the
linear/bowing structure. Large hail and some tornado risk will
remain during the overnight as moderate/strong instability and
around 40 kts of southwesterly deep shear persists.

...Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic Region...
A convective complex over WV/southwest VA this morning should
continue to weaken as it moves south/southeast within a weakly
buoyant environment. Daytime heating will result in pockets of
moderate surface-based instability near the front, and 35-40 kts of
west-northwest mid-level flow will result in sufficient shear to
support organized storms. Frontal convergence should lead to
additional scattered thunderstorm development during the day, with a
risk for damaging gusts and perhaps large hail.

[davidstorm]

[davidstorm]

[Lucas de Zárate]

Pasen link para seguir a los cazadores! El que usaba no funca

[davidstorm]

[maatii96]

La que está cerca de McCook tiene toda la pinta de SC.



Edit: ah, es la que posteó David arriba. No lo vi