Lunes, Martes, Miércoles, son tremendos desde las planicies centrales y hasta la costa Este!, y para mañana ya existe RIESGO moderado con potencial de destructivos tornados, madre mia!! (y quiero estar en Little Rock!!!!!!!!!!!!
)Les dejo la discusión pa mañana y el gráfico, y mañana David y los chicos nos van a DELEITAR con las super imágenes de SC tornádicas!
Day 2 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT sun Apr 24 2011
Valid 251200z - 261200z
..there is a MDT risk of severe thunderstorms across a large part of Arkansas into
southern MO...
..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms extending from eastern portions of
the Southern Plains to the middle south and middle MS/lower Tennessee/lower Ohio
valleys...
...
Model agreement exists with a shortwave trough...now entering northern
California...aiding in amplification of the western states trough day 1 and this
system advancing into the central U.S. Monday...as a strong upstream
90-100 knots Pacific jet spreads into the western states. Strengthening of
downstream winds is expected into Monday night as the southern/Central
Plains trough becomes negatively tilted tracking northeastward into the middle
MS valley region by 12z Tuesday.
In the low levels...surface cyclogenesis should be underway at 12z
Monday over OK...with further deepening of this low as it tracks
northeastward reaching MO by 26/00z...and into northern Illinois 12z Tuesday. Surface
front that has been draped from the Southern Plains to the Ohio Valley will
concurrently move northward as a warm front toward the southern Great Lakes
region. The surface low and an accompanying southwestward trailing cold
front and southward extending dry line advancing east-southeastward will be the foci
for development of potentially significant severe thunderstorms this period.
..ern portions of Southern Plains to middle MS/lower Tennessee/lower Ohio valleys...
Height falls spreading with the southern/Central Plains trough will
sustain a south-southwesterly low level jet which is forecast to extend from eastern Texas/OK to
the lower Ohio Valley at 12z Monday. Further strengthening of this
jet /50+ knots/ is forecast by late Monday afternoon from the arklatex
to middle MS valley. This will support greater trajectories off the
western Gulf into the slight and moderate risk areas than have been
observed the past few days...with 1-1.5 inch values spreading north-northeastward
along the low level jet. This moisture combined with steep midlevel lapse
rates and surface heating should result in moderate instability
across the warm sector...with the greatest values /MLCAPE 2000-2500
j per kg/ extending from the dry line in eastern Texas/southeastern OK into Arkansas.
At 12z Monday...showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing from
parts of OK/eastern Kansas to the Ohio Valley in vicinity and north of the
warm front. Forcing for ascent/height falls spreading eastward with the
upper trough combined with diabatic heating/steepening lapse rates
should support rapid thunderstorm development from southwestern MO through eastern OK/Arkansas
to eastern Texas by Monday afternoon...with some activity possible by late
morning. Given strengthening wind fields/bulk shear and southerly low
level winds veering to southwesterly at midlevels... supercells will be
likely with the potential for tornadoes...some strong...and very
large hail - especially with the initial storms - and damaging
winds.
These intense storms should shift northeastward with time toward the middle
MS valley...middle south and lower Ohio Valley...with the likelihood for
upscale growth overnight into linear clusters as strengthening
middle-upper level winds back becoming parallel to the low level jet. Along with
a continued threat for a few tornadoes...more widespread damaging
wind threat could evolve through the evening/overnight.
