Intenso tiempo severo USA 23/05 -> 25/05/2011

[matute_bow]

Bueno, aca les dejo el tópico abierto de lo que se viene para los próximos días...

En principio, hoy (además de ya varios watch en estos momentos) hay dos zonas con riesgo moderado, que se las dejo a continuación, con la discusión, pero me preocupa mañana, donde también ya hay riesgo moderado, pero me preocupa la inclinación negativa de la onda corta que va a estar pasando por la zona central, asociada c una gran inestabilidad, me parece que....

Les dejo lo de hoy...

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2011

VALID 231630Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IL...CENTRAL IND...NORTHERN OH...AND SOUTHWEST
LOWER MI...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTHERN OK...SOUTHEAST KS...AND SOUTHWEST MO...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...ACROSS THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS...INTO NY/PA AND
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...

A VERY COMPLEX CONVECTIVE DAY IS FORECAST ACROSS THE UNITED STATES
TODAY...WITH NUMEROUS AREAS OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

...NY/PA INTO MID ATLANTIC STATES...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER OH/WV. THIS
FEATURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD TODAY AND PROVIDE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
REDEVELOPMENT DURING MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS ARE LIMITING
HEATING FROM PA NORTHWARD...BUT EVEN THIS AREA SHOULD BECOME
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE BY LATE AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS BURN OFF AND
DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE 60S. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT BAND OF
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL EXTEND FROM CENTRAL PA INTO CENTRAL
VA...WITH MORE ISOLATED INTENSE STORMS FROM THERE SOUTHWARD INTO NC.
DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MOST LIKELY THREAT OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THIS AREA...WITH HAIL BECOMING INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE FARTHER
SOUTH WHERE GREATER INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. EVEN A FEW SUPERCELLS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER VA/NC AREAS AS EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES RANGE
FROM 30-40 KNOTS.

...MID MS AND OH VALLEY...
A LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY OVER MO. THE LEADING EDGE OF THESE STORMS APPEAR TO
BE ACCELERATING TOWARD THE STL AREA AND INTO AN AIR MASS WHERE RAPID
DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS CLOSELY TIED TO
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS IA/MO...AND A LOW LEVEL WIND MAX
SHOWN IN MULTIPLE MODEL RUNS. THE WIND MAX AND ASSOCIATED STORMS
ARE LIKELY TO TRACK QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF
IL/IN/OH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A RISK OF RATHER WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
PRIMARY CLUSTER OVER NORTHERN IND/NORTHWEST OH AND SPREAD INTO
SOUTHWEST LOWER MI. FOR THESE REASONS...HAVE MAINTAINED AND
ACTUALLY EXPANDED THE MODERATE RISK ACROSS THESE REGIONS.

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR DFW TODAY...AND ARE
EXPECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY WITH A CONTINUED RISK OF
ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER. BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY...STRONG HEATING AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE
VALUES OF 4000-5000 J/KG AND A WEAK CAP. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS WEST TX WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT A FEW DISCRETE
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS BY MID AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN OK. STORMS
WILL ALSO LIKELY DEVELOP BY EARLY EVENING IN VICINITY OF REMNANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OVER NORTHERN OK/SOUTHERN KS. BACKING LOW LEVEL
FLOW THROUGH THE EVENING WILL PROMOTE UPDRAFT ROTATION WITH RISK OF
VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES THROUGH THE EVENING.
OVERNIGHT... GENERAL MODEL CONCENSUS SUGGESTS STORMS MAY GROW
UPSCALE OVERNIGHT WITH AN MCS TRACKING TO AR WITH A RISK OF HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

[matute_bow]

Aca les dejo lo de mañana, que ASUSTA, no tiraron riesgo alto porque por protocolo, no creo que puedan mandar riesgo alto 24 horas antes del evento, pero si esto sigue asi SIN DUDAS que mañana Oklahoma y Kansas van a tener riesgo alto. Ahora hablan de la chance de CAPEs máximos de 5000!!!!!!!!!!!!!, bajo esa onda onclinada negativamente, eso es potencialmente MUY peligroso para la generación de tiempo severo, asociado a destructivos tornados, que día mañana también...

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1216 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NWRN TX TO SRN NEB...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK OVER
THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEY TO SRN NY...

...TORNADIC OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
TUESDAY. AN UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK MAY BE WARRANTED AS SITUATION
BECOMES MORE CERTAIN...

A CLASSIC PLAINS TORNADIC OUTBREAK APPEARS TO BE EVOLVING ACROSS THE
CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...ESPECIALLY FOR KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT REGARDING THE PROGRESSION OF A VERY STRONG
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY DIGGING ESEWD ACROSS SRN
CA...INTO THE SWRN U.S./SRN ROCKIES BEFORE EJECTING INTO THE PLAINS
BY PEAK HEATING. A VERY DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL OVERSPREAD
THE PLAINS AS 30-60M 12HR HEIGHT FALLS EDGE EWD. ADDITIONALLY...H5
SPEED MAX APPROACHING 80-90KT...AS NOTED IN THE GFS...WILL RACE TO A
POSITION OVER NWRN TX/SWRN OK BY 25/00Z WHICH WILL GENERATE VERY
STRONG SHEAR ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR FOR AREAS NEAR THE RED RIVER
REGION...NWD INTO KS AND EVEN SRN NEB. NEEDLESS TO SAY A VERY
DYNAMIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD TIME FAVORABLY FOR RAPID SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ALONG/AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AS ATMOSPHERIC
HEATING IS MAXIMIZED.

EARLY IN THE MORNING A FEW THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS MAY BE ONGOING
WITHIN THE STRONGEST ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION FROM KS EWD INTO MO AND
THE LOWER OH VALLEY. THIS REGION OF ASCENT AND STORMS MAY
TEMPORARILY FORCE A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW INTO NRN AR...NWWD INTO SRN
KS. HOWEVER...A NWD RETREAT IS LIKELY TO AT LEAST THE I-70 CORRIDOR
IN KS AS DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. FOR THIS
REASON IT APPEARS A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE FROM NRN
TX INTO SRN KS WHERE SBCAPE VALUES COULD EXCEED 5000 J/KG WHERE SFC
DEW POINTS HOLD IN THE LOWER 70S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE
WARM SECTOR EXHIBIT CLASSIC TORNADIC SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH
STRONG LOW LEVEL HELICITY ACROSS KS/OK WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE
ORDER OF 50-60KT. BY MID AFTERNOON...STRONG HEATING SHOULD BE NOTED
ALONG/WEST OF THE DRYLINE FORCING TEMPERATURES TO SOAR WELL INTO THE
90S...EFFECTIVELY REMOVING INHIBITION FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
TSTMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG THE DRYLINE BY 21Z...ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY
COULD DEVELOP MUCH QUICKER WITHIN THE STRONGER FORCING ACROSS THE
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TO THE NORTH-EAST OF THE SFC LOW WITHIN STRONGEST
UPSLOPE FLOW.

WHILE DRYLINE SUPERCELLS LIFE CYCLE WILL BE MAXIMIZED BETWEEN
21Z-04Z...STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS SHOULD
MAINTAIN A ZONE OF CONCENTRATED SEVERE NEAR/NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
ACROSS KS/NEB INTO MO DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

...TN/OH VALLEY TO SRN NY...

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY DURING THE
DAY WITH AN 18Z POSITION FROM CNTRL OH...SWD INTO ERN TN. THIS
FEATURE...COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING ALONG A ZONE OF LOW LEVEL
CONFLUENCE...SHOULD INDUCE STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST THE VAST MAJORITY OF
UPDRAFTS SHOULD BE MULTI-CELLULAR IN NATURE BUT CERTAINLY CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

[Cristofer]

Ahhhh bueee 5000 de CAPE es una bomba de tiempo eso jajajajaajajaa

[r_ezequiel_s]

Ya comenzó la actividad y largaron un TWatch.


Edit: no paso ni media hora del watch ya hay tornado warning!

[daros22]

Fuaaa.. tremendo! vamos a ver que pasa! ya vi que el tornado de anoche dejo 118 muertos y es el peor desde el famoso tornado de waco en el año 1953 . que tremenda temporada! creo que la cuenta lleva ya mas de mil tornados con 500 muertos . mantenganos informados! jep

[r_ezequiel_s]

Ya me aburri pero se que me voy a ir y me voy a perder lo mejor siempre me pasa jaaja
les dejo 3 hermosuras sin tornado warnings... los cazadores son como buitres estan todos amontonados a la espera ajaj

[arielmich]

Miren lo que estan viendo los cazadores en Texas ahora!

[matute_bow]

RIESGO ALTO de tormentas severas, como era de esperar!
Mañana cuando me levanto (en realidad en un rato) les posteo algunas cartas para que vean la vaguada de onda corta inclinada negativamente y los -12.6 de lifted que da el modelo, si -12.6!!!!!!!!

Pero miren la zona y la discusión, METE miedo eh, tremendo lo que va a suceder!!!


DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS SWD INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OKLAHOMA...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NEW ENGLAND SWD TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION...AND WWD INTO THE PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TO PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. AND
ERN CANADA...A STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL SYSTEM -- ACCOMPANIED BY
70-PLUS KT MID-LEVEL JET -- IS FORECAST TO EMERGE INTO THE CENTRAL
AND SRN PLAINS. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...A DEEPENING UPPER LOW IS
FORECAST ACROSS THE KS VICINITY -- WITH A 75 KT MID-LEVEL JET AROUND
THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ADVANCING ACROSS ERN
CANADA...MOVING EWD INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT
BECOMING MORE WASHED OUT ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY WITH TIME.
FARTHER W...A LEE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY EWD/NEWD
ACROSS KS/OK...BUT SHOULD STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LOW DEEPENS. BY LATE AFTERNOON...A DRYLINE WILL EXTEND SWD
ACROSS CENTRAL OK/CENTRAL TX AND A COMPOSITE WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY SHOULD EXTEND SEWD ACROSS SRN KS/ERN OK AND INTO AR. THIS
SURFACE SYSTEM WILL BECOME A FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK FOCUSED ON KS/OK/WRN
AR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

...CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS...
A REGIONAL OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS -- INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND SEVERAL LARGE/STRONG
TORNADOES IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE POWERFUL
UPPER JET EMERGES INTO THE PLAINS DRIVING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS.

ELEVATED STORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF NRN KS AND NEB AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...WHILE A CAPPED WARM SECTOR HINDERS STORM
DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY MID AFTERNOON...SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND AN
EWD SPREAD OF VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ATOP THE WARM SECTOR
WILL RESULT IN A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...WITH 100 MB MIXED-LAYER
CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 3000 TO 4000 J/KG ACROSS PARTS OF OK/KS AND
INTO WRN AR E OF THE LOW/DRYLINE.

AS THE UPPER JET AND ASSOCIATED/DEEPENING UPPER SYSTEM EMERGE...A
SLOWLY WEAKENING CAP SHOULD RESULT IN STORM INITIATION BY LATE
AFTERNOON...FROM CENTRAL KS SWD INTO CENTRAL TX NEAR THE SURFACE LOW
AND SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE. WITH MODERATE/BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW VEERING AND INCREASING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE
LOWER TROPOSPHERE TO SWLY AT 50 TO 60 KT AT MID LEVELS...SHEAR VERY
SUPPORTIVE OF BOTH MID-LEVEL AND LOW-LEVEL ROTATION WILL ALLOW
STORMS TO RAPIDLY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR. VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND SEVERAL POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES APPEAR LIKELY
AS THE STORMS INCREASE AND SPREAD ACROSS KS/OK INTO WRN AR AND THEN
LATER INTO WRN MO.

WHILE STORMS DEVELOPING SWD ACROSS CENTRAL TX ALONG THE DRYLINE
SHOULD EVENTUALLY BEGIN DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING AS BOUNDARY
LAYER STABILIZATION/CAPPING BECOME REESTABLISHED...WIDESPREAD STORMS
AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS ACROSS KS/ERN OK/MO/AR. SLIGHTLY ELEVATED STORMS SHOULD ALSO
INCREASE INTO NEB/IA AND VICINITY...ALONG WITH SOME ACCOMPANYING
SEVERE THREAT.

...NEW ENGLAND SWD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND WWD INTO THE OH/TN/MID MS
VALLEYS...
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD...AND AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT AWAY FROM LINGERING CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION...EXPECT CONVECTION
TO REDEVELOP/INTENSIFY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THE BELT OF STRONGEST FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN S OF THE OH
RIVER...BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE MORE LIMITED ACROSS PARTS OF THIS
REGION DEPENDING UPON THE EVOLUTION OF AN ONGOING BOW APPROACHING
THE MID MS VALLEY REGION ATTM. OVERALL...EXPECT BROAD/WIDESPREAD
ZONE OF SEVERE POTENTIAL NEAR AND SE OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH
STRONGEST STORMS WITHIN MULTIPLE BANDS OF CONVECTION CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

[Cristofer]

-12 de lifted con 5000 de CAPE, hay que tenerle miedo??? yo digo que si

Zarpados como siempre los indices de ienstabilidad de esa zona, y para el colmo esa vaguada inclinada negativamente, esto es para sentarse y no moverse eh? jajaja

[matute_bow]

PDS en el aire y para todosssss, mamita que tarde van a tener....

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 356
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1250 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
PONCA CITY OKLAHOMA TO 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF FORT WORTH
TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 352...WW 354...WW 355...

DISCUSSION...TSTM INITIATION IS ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM WRN OK INTO W-CNTRL TX. STRONG HEIGHT
FALLS/DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH NEGATIVELY TILTED
MIDLEVEL TROUGH EMERGING INTO THE PLAINS SHOULD SUPPORT A RAPID
INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WARM SECTOR AIR
MASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. WHEN COUPLED WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES...ENVIRONMENT IS MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH
MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-4000 J/KG. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR STRENGTHENING TO
40-50 KT WILL PROMOTE RAPID SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH THE INITIAL
HAZARD BEING VERY LARGE HAIL. INITIAL VEER-BACK WIND PROFILE
OBSERVED IN CURRENT VADS/PROFILERS IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO
LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVED HODOGRAPHS BY 00Z WHERE 0-1 KM SRH WILL
APPROACH 400-500 M2/S2. AS SUCH...EXPECT A RAPID INCREASE IN THE
THREAT FOR TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...SOME OF WHICH
COULD BE LONG-TRACKED AND STRONG TO VIOLENT