Bueno ya el sistema decayo fuertemente en las ultimas horas, no pude seguirlo bien por estar ocupado con la facu. asi que le doy el ultimo respiro
Por lo que indican la mayoria de los modelos, el sistema se dirigiria hacia el norte y talvez de chance de volver a crear algo, pero no lo veo muy bien. La verdad me perdi cuando intensifico a 4, ni los modelos vieron eso hasta ultimas horas, asi que linda sorpresa.
Esta es la discusion:
Adrian is weakening as fast as it intensified...and the cloud
pattern has degenerated into a tight swirl of low clouds with a few
patches of deep convection to the east of the center. The initial
intensity has been reduced to 45 knots based on rapidly decaying
Dvorak T-numbers. Since Adrian is already affected by strong
shear...surrounded by stable air...and moving over increasingly
cooler waters...it could easily become a remnant low in 36 hours or
sooner. Some intermittent patches of deep convection could
redevelop near the center between now and dissipation.
The cyclone is moving toward the west or 275 degrees at 10 knots.
This general motion with a turn to the west-northwest around the
subtropical ridge is forecast until dissipation. Most of the track
guidance turn the cyclone northward ahead of a short wave in two
days...but by then Adrian should have dissipated.
Forecast positions and Max winds
init 11/2100z 15.8n 112.9w 45 kt 50 mph
12h 12/0600z 15.9n 114.3w 35 kt 40 mph
24h 12/1800z 16.5n 115.0w 30 kt 35 mph
36h 13/0600z 17.5n 116.0w 25 kt 30 mph...Post-trop/remnt low
48h 13/1800z 18.5n 117.0w 25 kt 30 mph...Post-trop/remnt low
72h 14/1800z...Post-trop/remnt low
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