Huracan Adrian

[federico]

Esa cosa que no se como se llama llego al 100% eso quiere decir que tenemos una super tormenta bebe?? (no me maten, tengan en cuenta que soy apenas una CBC ) jajajjaja

No, quiere decir que hay un 100% de posibilidades de que se transforme en depresión o tormenta tropical, no recuerdo bien cual de las dos

[PaoCorrales]

Esa cosa que no se como se llama llego al 100% eso quiere decir que tenemos una super tormenta bebe?? (no me maten, tengan en cuenta que soy apenas una CBC ) jajajjaja

No, quiere decir que hay un 100% de posibilidades de que se transforme en depresión o tormenta tropical, no recuerdo bien cual de las dos

Gracias

[Tincho]

Señoras y señores Depresion Topical ONE E!
ya arrancamos los motores ahora solo falta continuar. aqui tenemos la discucion y las imagenes satelitales (si alguien esta en el nhc, pase tambien la discucion y el mapa de infrarojo)

the tropical depression continues to exhibit an organized pattern of
deep convection...with a large curved band covering much of the
western half of the circulation. Satellite classifications are now
2.0 from both TAFB and SAB...and are the basis for a slightly
higher initial intensity of 30 kt.


Synoptic steering flow remains weak...and the latest initial motion
estimate is 295/3. A slow northwestward track is forecast for the
next day or two. Beyond that time...a building mid-level ridge over
western Mexico is expected to impart a west-northwestward motion
through day 5. The HWRF and GFDL models have consistently shown
northward track biases and thus have once again been weighted less
heavily than the global models.


The synoptic environment remains favorable for intensification...
with warm sea surface temperatures and light wind shear. The
intensity guidance generally shows gradual strengthening over the
next 4 days...and the official forecast brings this system to a
hurricane in a couple of days. In fact...the SHIPS model shows a
high probability of rapid intensification during the next
day. The official forecast follows a blend of the SHIPS and lgem
guidance.


Forecast positions and Max winds
init 07/2100z 11.7n 100.2w 30 kt 35 mph
12h 08/0600z 12.2n 100.4w 40 kt 45 mph
24h 08/1800z 12.8n 100.7w 50 kt 60 mph
36h 09/0600z 13.6n 101.5w 60 kt 70 mph
48h 09/1800z 14.5n 102.4w 70 kt 80 mph
72h 10/1800z 15.2n 104.4w 80 kt 90 mph
96h 11/1800z 16.0n 106.0w 85 kt 100 mph
120h 12/1800z 17.0n 108.0w 75 kt 85 mph





Un mini detalle, en el weather underground muestra al invest 91 separado de la depresion, como si fueran dos sistemas separados pero estan en el mismo lugar practicamente, o esto es un error de la pagina o realmente da que pensar...

[Tincho]

TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011
800 PM PDT TUE JUN 07 2011

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT BANDING NEAR THE CENTER HAS BECOME
MORE CONCENTRATED...WITH STRONGER MID-LEVEL ROTATION NOTED. DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS WERE 35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB AT 0000 UTC.
SINCE THAT TIME...INCREASED ORGANIZATION HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN
MICROWAVE DATA...WITH EVIDENCE OF AN INNER-CORE STRUCTURE ON 0104
UTC SSMI/S IMAGES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 40
KT...MAKING THIS THE FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC
SEASON.

ADRIAN HAS NOT BEEN MOVING VERY MUCH DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...WITH A LONGER-TERM MOTION OF ABOUT 300/3. THE CYCLONE IS
CAUGHT IN AN AREA OF LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND A TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. A TRACK
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST SHOULD OCCUR FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR SO UNTIL RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD OVER MEXICO. THIS CHANGE IN
STEERING SHOULD RESULT IN ADRIAN TURNING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THERE REMAINS A FAIR BIT OF
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AS THE HWRF/GFDL SHOW THE CYCLONE MOVING
MORE TOWARD THE NORTH CLOSER TO MEXICO BEFORE MAKING THAT
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TURN. GIVEN THE HISTORICAL BIASES OF THOSE
MODELS...THE NHC FORECAST WILL STAY ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...CLOSER TO A BLEND OF THE GFS/GEFS/ECMWF/UKMET
MODELS.

THERE IS VERY LITTLE WIND SHEAR NEAR ADRIAN WITH WARM SSTS NEAR 30C
ALONG ITS PATH FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS ENVIRONMENT IS RIPE
FOR INTENSIFICATION...PERHAPS EVEN OF THE RAPID VARIETY. INDEED THE
SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION GUIDANCE INDICATES A 59 PERCENT CHANCE
OF A 30 KT INCREASE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MOST NEGATIVE FACTOR
AGAINST THIS OCCURRING IS AN AREA OF DRY AIR TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER...THAT DRY AIR WOULD TAKE SOME TIME
PENETRATING THE CORE REGIONS...ESPECIALLY WITHOUT ANY SHEARING
MECHANISM TO ACCELERATE THAT PROCESS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
RAISED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWING CONSIDERABLE
INTENSIFICATION...AND IS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE FLORIDA STATE
SUPERENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. IN ABOUT THREE DAYS...ADRIAN SHOULD BE OVER
COOLER WATERS AND EMBEDDED WITHIN A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT...
RESULTING IN A GRADUAL WEAKENING BEYOND THIS TIME.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 11.8N 100.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 12.2N 100.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 13.0N 101.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 13.9N 102.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 14.5N 103.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 15.5N 105.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 12/0000Z 16.0N 107.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 13/0000Z 17.0N 109.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

[LisandroSc]

Con escasa cortante y una SST interesante es logico que este sistema ya sea TT.

Veremos cuanto tarda en convertirse en Huracan, aunque hay coincidencia en los modelos y eso siempre es positivo.

Linda circulacion!





Buen seguimiento Tincho!

[Cristofer]

Tormenta tropical Adrian a punto de convertirse en Huracan categoria 1

[Tincho]

Uhhh Mil gracias Cristo!
actualizo la discusion:
visible satellite images and recent microwave data indicate that
Adrian has developed an eye-like feature. However...this feature
is not yet completely surrounded by convective banding...as seen in
infrared images. Satellite classifications have not changed much
from earlier...and the initial intensity is held at 60 kt for this
advisory.


After jogging northward earlier...Adrian appears to have resumed a
more northwestward heading at a slightly faster speed...330/7. A
gradual turn toward the west-northwest is expected as mid-level
ridging strengthens to the north of the cyclone. The track models
remain quite divergent...especially beyond 3 days...with the GFS
and GFDL models showing Adrian turning more toward the north due to
a stronger shortwave trough off the Baja Peninsula. Conversely...
the UKMET and ECMWF models show a weaker shortwave and take the
cyclone more westward. The official forecast is nudged a little to
the left...or south...of the previous one and is a compromise
between the aforementioned scenarios.


Although the intensification process has slowed today...additional
strengthening is expected as Adrian remains in a favorable
environment. Steady...or even rapid intensification...is likely
over the next 36 to 48 hours as Adrian remains over waters of 29-30
c and in a low wind shear environment. Beyond that time...the
official forecast takes Adrian over progressively cooler waters.
The cooler SSTs along with a more stable atmosphere are expected to
promote weakening. The intensity forecast is essentially an update
of the previous forecast.


Forecast positions and Max winds


init 08/2100z 13.5n 101.6w 60 kt 70 mph
12h 09/0600z 14.1n 102.3w 75 kt 85 mph
24h 09/1800z 14.8n 103.3w 85 kt 100 mph
36h 10/0600z 15.4n 104.4w 95 kt 110 mph
48h 10/1800z 15.9n 105.6w 95 kt 110 mph
72h 11/1800z 16.7n 107.5w 90 kt 105 mph
96h 12/1800z 17.5n 109.5w 70 kt 80 mph
120h 13/1800z 18.5n 111.5w 50 kt 60 mph

[PaoCorrales]

Ya tenemos Huracan

Copio la discucion del NSH (los expertos que interpreten)

HURRICANE ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011
800 AM PDT THU JUN 09 2011

ADRIAN HAS DEVELOPED A DISTINCT EYE WHICH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
RATHER LARGE AND SYMMETRICAL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE HURRICANE
DISPLAYS A WELL ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW WITH NO SIGNS OF
SHEAR. BOTH SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE
INCREASED THIS MORNING...AND SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100
KNOTS. THIS MAKES ADRIAN A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.

THE HURRICANE HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE...OR
AT LEAST TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY BEFORE THE CIRCULATION
BEGINS TO BE AFFECTED BY STABLE AIR AND COOLER WATERS IN A DAY OR
SO. BY THEN...WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN.

A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND
NORTHERN MEXICO HAS EXPANDED AND CONSEQUENTLY...ADRIAN HAS ACQUIRED
A MORE WESTWARD COMPONENT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 285 DEGREES AT
8 KNOTS. THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE EXPANDING
AND BUILD FARTHER WESTWARD BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. THIS
STEERING PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION OF
THE HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. BY THEN...ADRIAN SHOULD BE
WEAKER AND WILL PROBABLY BECOME STEERED MORE WESTWARD BY THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY
SHIFT SOUTHWARD DUE TO THE BUILDING OF THE RIDGE AND IN FACT...NONE
OF THE MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL...TURN THE HURRICANE
NORTHWARD AS INDICATED YESTERDAY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 14.2N 104.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 14.5N 105.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 15.0N 106.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 15.5N 108.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 15.8N 109.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 12/1200Z 16.5N 111.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 13/1200Z 17.0N 113.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 14/1200Z 18.0N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

Y las imagenes...

[Cristofer]

Bien ahi Pao!!!!! que hermoso ojo que formó

[PaoCorrales]

Las animaciones que no se como subir al foro (ajjaja) estan geniales, se ve re bien el ojo del huracan