Impresionante Tiempo Severo en EEUU 14-15 Abril 2012

[davidstorm]

Buenas Chicos..

EEUU se prepara para un extremo tiempo severo, para mañana hay riesgo alto de tornados hasta 60% de ocurrencia.. seguramente va a ser una locura esto... esperemos que las personas tomen los recaudos correspondiente ante esta situacion...

[MarcoTav]

Fijense acá (http://www.tornadovideos.net/pages/full_screen/) que hay video en vivo de las cacerías!!

[davidstorm]

Actualizacion de la situacion..



DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1243 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NEBRASKA AND PARTS OF ADJACENT NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS/WESTERN IA...

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA...WESTERN
IOWA...NORTHWEST MISSOURI...CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...AND PARTS
OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK
AREA ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS ALL INDICATE THAT A STRONG MID/UPPER JET STREAK...NOW DIGGING
INTO THE BASE OF A LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
U.S...WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU
TODAY...BEFORE NOSING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO INCLUDE A
90-100+ KT 500 MB JET CORE...WHICH MAY BE PRECEDED BY ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT SPEED MAXIMUM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/ CENTRAL
PLAINS REGION DURING THE DAY. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ASSOCIATED
FORCING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF A SURFACE
CYCLONE TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH A 1000 MB LOW
CENTER DEEPENING BELOW 990 MB ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO INTO SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA BETWEEN 14/12Z AND 15/00Z. WITHIN ITS WARM SECTOR...A
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INTO
CENTRAL PLAINS /50+ KT AT 850 MB BY LATE AFTERNOON...INCREASING UP
TO 70 KT DURING THE EVENING/. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE
CONTINUING NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF INCREASINGLY RICH MOISTURE
RETURNING OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...BENEATH AT LEAST MODESTLY
STEEP LAPSE RATES. MIXED LAYER CAPE IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED 2000 J/KG
WITHIN A CORRIDOR ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND
CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS...INTO THE VICINITY OF A WARM FRONTAL ZONE
EXTENDING EAST OF THE LOW ACROSS NEBRASKA INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY.

THIS ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR A SIGNIFICANT
OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS...THAT MAY IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS MAY INCLUDE
SEVERAL TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...AND PERHAPS...BY TONIGHT... THE
EVOLUTION OF A SUBSTANTIAL SQUALL LINE.

...NEBRASKA...
NORTH AND EAST OF THE DRY LINE WRAPPING INTO THE DEEPENING SURFACE
CYCLONE...INTO THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT...CONDITIONS APPEAR
LIKELY TO BECOME VERY CONDUCIVE TO THE FORMATION OF DISCRETE
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...AS THE EXIT REGION OF THE CYCLONIC MID/UPPER
JET OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THIS COULD OCCUR AS EARLY AS
18-21Z...IF NOT BEFORE...ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...BEFORE DEVELOPING EASTWARD AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE
ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHERE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME LARGE AND CLOCKWISE CURVED...AND SUPPORTIVE OF LONG-LIVED
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TORNADOES.

...KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHWEST TEXAS...
BARRING COMPLICATIONS FROM RESIDUAL EARLY DAY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...THE WARM SECTOR ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA PROBABLY WILL
STILL BE CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG TORNADOES. HOWEVER...CONCERN EXISTS THAT THE
POTENTIAL COVERAGE OF DISCRETE SUPERCELL STORMS MAY REMAIN SOMEWHAT
SPARSE...PRIOR TO SQUALL LINE EVOLUTION THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
OVERTAKES THE DRY LINE AND SURGES EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. ONCE
THIS OCCURS...DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL MAY BECOME THE PRIMARY
SEVERE THREAT.

..KERR/LEITMAN.. 04/14/2012

[davidstorm]

Cada actualizacion es tremenda... Esta tarde y noche va a ser una locura....



DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

VALID 141300Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT FOR CENTRAL/ERN NEB...CENTRAL/ERN KS...AND CENTRAL/N CENTRAL
OK...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK...FROM
SW OK TO FAR NE NEB AND WRN IA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK...FROM
NW TX TO WRN NEB...IA...AND MO...

...TORNADO OUTBREAK EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM
CENTRAL/ERN NEB SWD ACROSS KS TO CENTRAL OK...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LONG-TRACK/DAMAGING TORNADOES...

...SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED LOW OVER NW AZ THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS EWD/ENEWD TO THE
HIGH PLAINS BY THIS EVENING WHILE EVOLVING INTO MORE OF AN OPEN
WAVE...AND THEN CONTINUE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NEWD
FROM ERN CO THIS AFTERNOON TO NE NEB/SE SD BY 12Z SUNDAY. S OF THE
CYCLONE...A WELL-DEFINED DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE FROM CENTRAL
KS SWD INTO WRN OK AND NW TX BY THIS EVENING...WHILE A WARM FRONT
MOVES NWD FROM KS THIS MORNING TO CENTRAL/ERN NEB BY LATE AFTERNOON.
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR WILL COVER NEB/KS/OK/N TX TO THE E
OF THE DRYLINE AND S OF THE WARM FRONT. THE PRIMARY LOCATIONS FOR
SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY WILL BE NEAR THE SURFACE LOW MOVING
INTO NEB...AND THE DRYLINE TRAILING SWD INTO KS/OK.

...CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT...
THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THE PAST FEW
DAYS. IN THE WAKE OF MORNING WAA STORMS ACROSS NE OK/SE KS/SW
MO...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SURGE NWD ACROSS KS TO S CENTRAL/SE NEB
BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING INVOF THE DRYLINE AND
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE LOW 60S IN NEB TO THE
MID-UPPER 60S IN CENTRAL OK WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AFTERNOON MLCAPE
VALUES OF 2000-3500 J/KG. MEANWHILE... DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL BE QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS IN THE UNSTABLE WARM
SECTOR...WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 50-70 KT ACROSS ALMOST THE
ENTIRE WARM SECTOR. THE DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND AN
EXPECTED INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN AN ENVIRONMENT CLEARLY INTO THE PARAMETER
SPACE ASSOCIATED WITH PREVIOUS STRONG-VIOLENT AND LONG-TRACK TORNADO
EPISODES.

THE PRIMARY QUESTION THIS OUTLOOK WILL BE STORM COVERAGE ALONG THE
DRYLINE THIS EVENING IN KS/OK. THE CONVECTIVE SCHEMES IN THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS VARY WITH STORM INITIATION SIGNALS...WHILE
SEVERAL OF THE CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED
DRYLINE SUPERCELLS IN THE 22-01Z TIME FRAME. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...MODIFIED FOR EXPECTED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
DRYLINE...SHOW DEEP MIXED LAYER AND LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION. PLUS...A WELL-DEFINED BAND OF LOW-LEVEL ASCENT IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE DRYLINE...WHICH SUGGESTS AT LEAST
WIDELY-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE KS/OK PORTION
OF THE DRYLINE IS ENTIRELY PLAUSIBLE. FARTHER N...POTENTIALLY MORE
CONCENTRATED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND
NW EDGE OF THE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR IN NEB /WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE JET ALOFT/. ALL FACTORS FAVOR DISCRETE CONVECTIVE
MODES THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...AND THOUGH STORMS COULD BE WIDELY
SPACED...THEY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LONG PATHS OF VERY LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING TORNADOES THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z.

LATE TONIGHT...THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL FULLY EMERGE OVER THE PLAINS
AND THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE...POTENTIALLY
SUPPORTING MORE EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE DEVELOPMENT NEAR OR AFTER 06Z.
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE MORE OF A THREAT WITH THE MORE LINEAR AND
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT...GIVEN A CONTINUATION OF
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND 60-70 KT FLOW IN THE LOWEST FEW
THOUSAND FEET AGL.

..THOMPSON/MOSIER.. 04/14/2012

[davidstorm]

Tremenda discucion sobre donde sera la activacion....
por ahora la zona NO de Texas, Oeste de Oklahoma y SO de Kansas, se lo esta mirando muy detenidamente, en las proximas horas cualquier activacion en esa zona, daran advertencia de tornados, con potencial de tornados graves...



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0521
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0942 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...TX/OK PANHANDLES...WRN OK...SWRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 141442Z - 141615Z

CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY BE UNDERWAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN/CNTRL
HIGH PLAINS. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AND A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES...WRN OK...AND SWRN KS IF THE THREAT FOR DEEPENING
CONVECTION ACTUALLY MATERIALIZES.

RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP INDICATES A ZONE OF TOWERING CUMULUS
EVOLVING FROM FAR SWRN KS SSWWD INTO THE CNTRL TX PANHANDLE. THIS
ZONE ALIGNS WITH A RIBBON OF INFERRED ASCENT PER RECENT WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THE 12Z AMARILLO RAOB MODIFIED FOR CURRENT SFC OBS
INDICATES THAT INHIBITION FOR A SURFACE-BASED PARCEL HAS ALMOST
COMPLETELY ERODED OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...PARTICULARLY IN
POCKETS OF INSOLATION. FARTHER NORTH INTO SWRN KS -- I.E. NORTH OF
THE TRACK OF ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A PRIOR SUBTLE IMPULSE -- THE CAP
IS MUCH MORE STOUT PER DODGE CITY 12Z RAOB. REGARDLESS...CONTINUED
SFC HEATING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN STRONG DESTABILIZATION AND
DECREASING INHIBITION THROUGH THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON EAST OF A SHARPENING DRYLINE/FRONT...AND CONVECTIVE
INITIATION MAY BE IMMINENT. ALSO OF NOTE...DETERMINISTIC MODEL QPF
FIELDS HAVE STRUGGLED GREATLY WITH REGARDS TO REPRESENTING THE
CURRENT SCENARIO...AND LIKELY ARE NOT RESOLVING SUBTLE FORCING FOR
ASCENT THAT WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN SUPPORTING THE INITIATION.
STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR YIELDING EFFECTIVE SRH IN EXCESS OF 300
M2/S2...MAINTAINED BY BACKED SFC WINDS...WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR
TORNADOES...WHILE VERY LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
WITH SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.

..COHEN.. 04/14/2012

[davidstorm]

Se vino el primer Watch....



Particularly Dangerous Situation (PDS)

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 165
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1045 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL KANSAS
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1045 AM UNTIL
600 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
GAGE OKLAHOMA TO 55 MILES NORTHWEST OF CONCORDIA KANSAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS RAPIDLY INCREASING OVER
SOUTHWEST KS AND SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL KS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHWEST OK IN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. INITIAL STORMS MAY BE ELEVATED.
HOWEVER...SURFACE DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR AS LOW CLOUDS BURN
OFF...AIDING IN STORMS BECOMING SURFACE-BASED. VERY FAVORABLE
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STRONG TORNADOES
WILL BE AN INCREASING RISK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.


...HART

[davidstorm]

Hace un rato en Hodgeman/Pawnee county - Kansas 4/14/12

[davidstorm]

tremendooooooo!!!!!!!!

[Lucas de Zárate]

jaja nada mas lindo qe verlo en vivo

[davidstorm]