Buen día. Abro el topic del disturbio tropical localizado en Las Bahamas/SE de Florida. El NHC ya lo etiquetó como tal y la verdad que ya era hora.
Presenta una estructura convectiva excelente, a pesar de que los centros de niveles bajos y medios están desacoplados.
El ambiente de acá a los próximos días son los siguientes: muy poca cortante (5-10kt), excelente humedad en todos los niveles y bueno, las aguas de la CDG y el mismísimo GDM una vez que cruce Florida en dirección oeste.
Los modelos son un disparate y no se ponen de acuerdo. Algunos la desarrollan, otros ni.. pero la verdad que encuentro difícil creer que de acá no saldrá nada.
Última edición por Wyoming el Lun Sep 14, 2020 5:56 pm, editado 4 veces en total.
Me parece que los modelos van a empezar a correr de atrás como pasó varias veces esta temporada...
Updated: Shower and thunderstorm activity located over the
northwestern and central Bahamas and the adjacent waters continues
to shows signs of organization. In addition, surface observations
indicate that pressures have fallen over the area since yesterday
and, along with wind data, suggest that a broad area of low pressure
could be forming between the northwestern Bahamas and South Florida.
This system is forecast to move westward at about 10 mph, crossing
the Bahamas and Florida today and tonight and moving into the
eastern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. The disturbance could become a
tropical depression while it is near South Florida tonight, but it
is more likely to become a tropical depression while it moves slowly
west-northwestward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico this weekend and
early next week. Regardless of development, this system is expected
to produce locally heavy rainfall over portions of the Bahamas,
South Florida, and the Florida Keys during the next couple of days,
and interests there, as well as along the northern and eastern Gulf
coast, should monitor its progress. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
Se está moviendo mucho más lento que esos 10mph que dar el NHC. Me fijé en los mapas de vorticidad en 850mb y están en la misma zona hace 12hs, mínimo.
Creo que realmente hoy podríamos ver PTC #19? #20? Ya perdí la cuenta. El tema es que es un sistema muy saludable y más allá de si desemboca o no en algo, seguramente cause inundaciones localizadas en vastas zonas del sur de Florida.
Mirando la visible con cariño parecería verse cierta circulación, aunque no logro distinguir si es en niveles bajos o más arriba. Tampoco me sorprendería si largan un PTC hoy.
Basta NHC, déjate de joder. Llámala como tiene que ser
Cuánto duro el aviso anterior? 20 minutos?
Tenemos la decimonovena depresión de la temporada!
Eh.. pico de 60 nudos antes de que toque tierra en Mississippi. Interesante.
Spoiler
Tropical Depression Nineteen Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
500 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2020
GOES-16 1-minute satellite data show that the system near the
Bahamas that we have been monitoring for the past couple of days
has quickly organized into a tropical depression. Very deep
convection has formed near the center, and the 1-min data now shows
enough north and northwest flow to indicate that a well-defined
center is present. The initial wind speed is 30 kt in agreement
with recent ship data.
It is uncertain whether the large burst of convection over the
center will continue and cause the depression to become a tropical
storm before reaching Florida. However, since it is only a 5 kt
increase from the current intensity, it is possible that tropical
storm conditions could still occur along the southeast Florida coast
late tonight, and a tropical storm watch has been issued.
Otherwise, after the system reaches the eastern Gulf of Mexico,
steady intensification is expected through the weekend due to
expected light wind shear and very warm water. Some increase in
shear could occur over the northern Gulf of Mexico but that is
uncertain at this time. The first forecast will stay conservative
and only show a peak intensity of 60 kt in 3 to 4 days, but do not
be surprised if that is revised upward on later forecasts once
other models better initialize the depression.
An uncertain estimate of the initial motion is 285/7. Strong
ridging over the southeastern United States is expected to steer the
cyclone to the west-northwest then northwest as a mid-latitude
trough erodes the western side of the ridge over the weekend. The
forecast gets tricky after that because the bulk of the guidance
suggests the trough isn't deep enough to recurve the system, and
instead it gets left behind, moving slowly westward early next week
due to weak ridging over the southern Plains. The NHC forecast is
near the corrected-consensus guidance. The uncertainty in the
track forecast is much larger than normal after 48 hours, as small
changes in the forecast steering flow could result in this system
moving over the northern Gulf Coast faster and to the northeast of
what is shown here. As a result, the risk of seeing direct impacts
from this system extends well outside the cone of uncertainty, even
more so than usual in this case.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Heavy rainfall is expected to produce isolated flash flooding
over portions of central and southern Florida and prolong existing
minor river flooding in the Tampa Bay area.
2. Tropical storm conditions are possible tonight along the
southeast Florida coast where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect.
3. The system is forecast to strengthen to near hurricane intensity
by early next week as it moves across the northeastern Gulf of
Mexico. Dangerous impacts from storm surge, wind, and heavy rainfall
will be possible along the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to
southeastern Louisiana this weekend and early next week. Residents
in these areas should monitor the progress of this system and
updates to the forecast, as Storm Surge, Tropical Storm or Hurricane
watches could be issued later tonight and Saturday.
No me sorprendería que salga un huracán de esto, sinceramente. No perdió tiempo en organizarse. Va a estar interesante para seguir en los próximos días.
A este ritmo, tal vez de acá salga Sally y 95L termine en Teddy.
maatii96 escribió: ↑Vie Sep 11, 2020 6:12 pm
No me sorprendería que salga un huracán de esto, sinceramente. No perdió tiempo en organizarse. Va a estar interesante para seguir en los próximos días.
A este ritmo, tal vez de acá salga Sally y 95L termine en Teddy.
Estoy seguro que está noche tenemos a Sally de acá. 95L todavía tiene entre 48-60hs para que se consolide, según los modelos.
Otro tema, me preocupan los wobbles de TD19. Tranquilamente puede irse hacia el oeste o incluso al suroeste. Como llegue a suceder lo último, pasará mucho más tiempo en agua y el Estrecho de Florida es una sopa de pollo. En fin, vuelvo a mencionar que las condiciones ambientales por dónde pasará Sally son 99% ideales; cortante de 5kt 200-850mb, >80% en todos los niveles y un anticiclón potente en altura que ayudará a ventilarla.
Algunos en twitter lo comparaban con Katrina. Ambos cruzando el sur de Florida hacia el Golfo y tocando tierra en Luisiana. Y a Katrina al principio los pronos apenas la veían como Cat 1.
Medio cualquiera la comparación jaja
Todavía tiene desacoplados sus centros de circulación. Probablemente debido a algo de cortante del NO que para mañana habrá desaparecido.
Qué se referirá con "that look"?
Quiere generar intriga.
Una reformación un poco más al sur de su centro por estas horas tendría una gran consecuencia en su trayecto y tiempo en las aguas del Golfo, y por tanto de su intensidad.
