An area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico is producing showers and thunderstorms that are showing some
signs of organization Upper-level winds are forecast to
gradually become more conducive for development, and a tropical
depression could form late this week while the low meanders over the
southern Gulf of Mexico for the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
An area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is
producing showers and thunderstorms that have become a little better
organized during the past several hours. Upper-level winds are
forecast to gradually become more conducive for development, and a
tropical depression could form late this week or over the weekend
while the low meanders over the southern Gulf of Mexico for the
next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico gradually continue to
become better organized. Upper-level winds are forecast to
gradually become more conducive for further development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form late this week or over the
weekend while the low meanders over the southern Gulf of Mexico for
the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
pero bueno, creo que esta vez 90L va a estar más tiempo sobre el agua hasta que alguna vaguda la agarre o se escabulla por debajo de alguna debilidad de la alta en altura o vaya uno a saber.. Thunderstorm activity has continued to increase and become better
organized this morning in association with a well-defined low
pressure system located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
Upper-level winds are gradually becoming more conducive for
development and, if this recent development trend continues,
a tropical depression or a tropical could form later today. The
low is expected to meander over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico for
the next day or so before moving slowly northward to
northeastward on Friday and Saturday. An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance
this afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
Primera discusión del ciclón tropical que tendrá el último nombre de la lista estandar de ciclones tropicales de este año:Special Message from NHC
Issued 17 Sep 2020 22:48 UTC
NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Twenty Two, located in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, at 600 PM CDT (2300 UTC).
Spoiler
252
WTNT42 KNHC 172300
TCDAT2
Tropical Depression Twenty-Two Special Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020
600 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020
Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the low pressure area over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico has
developed a sufficiently well-defined circulation, with SFMR wind
data suggesting an intensity of about 30 kt. In addition, the
associated convection is organized enough for SAB and TAFB to
provide Dvorak satellite intensity estimates of 30 kt. Based on
this information, advisories are being initiated on Tropical
Depression Twenty-Two.
The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 035/4. During the
next 48 h or so, the cyclone should be steered slowly
north-northeastward by a mid- to upper-level trough over Texas and
northern Mexico. After that time, the global models are in good
agreement that this trough will weaken and lift out to the
northeast, with a weak mid-level ridge building to the north of the
cyclone. This should result in a gradual turn toward the west at a
continued slow forward speed. Although the cyclone is relatively
close to land, the vast majority of the track guidance keeps the
system offshore for the next five days. The official forecast will
follow this scenario, with the forecast track being between the HCCA
corrected consensus and the other consensus models.
The large-scale models suggest that the cyclone will be in an
environment of light to moderate vertical wind shear for the next
several days. Some dry air entrainment may occur after 48 h.
The bulk of the intensity guidance keeps the system below hurricane
strength during the forecast period. The official intensity
forecast follows the trend of the guidance and shows the system
peaking as a tropical storm, but it lies a little above the
intensity consensus.
As mentioned above, the cyclone is likely to stay offshore during
the forecast period. Therefore, it is too early to tell which parts
of the coast of the Gulf of Mexico will get wind, storm surge, and
rain impacts from this system
Key Messages:
1. The system is expected to strengthen to a tropical storm while
moving slowly over the western Gulf of Mexico during the next few
days.
2. While it is too early to determine what areas could see direct
wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts from this system, interests
throughout the western Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of
this system and future updates to the forecast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/2300Z 21.9N 94.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 22.7N 94.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 23.8N 93.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 24.8N 93.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 25.4N 92.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 20/0600Z 25.8N 93.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 26.1N 93.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 21/1800Z 26.1N 95.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 22/1800Z 25.6N 96.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
$$
Forecaster Berg/Beven
Tampoco es que arriesgué tanto.
