Nuevo año, nueva temporada.
Y como vienen pronosticando los modelos desde hace semanas ya, parece que sera activa (no como la del año pasado!).
Primer sistema que sigue el NHC. Ayer no existía, hoy tiene 90% de formación en las próximas horas. El primer nombre es Ana. No creo que haga transición completa aun sistema tropical, sin embargo una STS sería interesante para arrancar
NT20 KNHC 201157
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu May 20 2021
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
A non-tropical low pressure system is located about 800 miles east
of Bermuda. The low is expected to develop gale-force winds later
today while it moves generally northward. The low is then forecast
to move westward and southwestward over warmer waters tonight and
Friday, and it will likely become a subtropical cyclone near and to
the northeast of Bermuda on Friday. The system is expected to move
toward the north and northeast into a more hostile environment by
late Sunday into Monday. For more information on this developing low
pressure area, please see High Seas forecasts issued by the NOAA
Ocean Prediction Center and forecast products issued by the Bermuda
Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
&&
High Seas Forecasts for this system can be found under AWIPS header
NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
$$
Forecaster Beven
Última edición por Wyoming el Dom May 23, 2021 11:55 am, editado 1 vez en total.
Buenas.
Este disturbio no tropical se acaba de convertir en la tormenta subtropical Ana: perdió sus características frontales y comenzó a generar convección cerca del centro.
La formación de Ana constituye la séptima formación consecutiva de un sistema nombrado antes del inicio oficial de la temporada (1-jun).
40kt, 1006mb
000
WTNT41 KNHC 220832
TCDAT1
Subtropical Storm Ana Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012021
500 AM AST Sat May 22 2021
Satellite images indicate that the low pressure system that is
located a couple of hundred miles northeast of Bermuda has become
better organized overnight. The low now has a well-defined center
of circulation, some central deep convection, and thunderstorms that
are organized in curved bands to the north and northeast of the
center. The system is considered a subtropical cyclone rather than
a tropical cyclone since it is still entangled with an upper-level
low as evident in water vapor satellite images, but it does have
some tropical characteristics as well. The initial intensity is
estimated to be 40 kt, which makes the system Subtropical Storm Ana.
Ana is moving slowly to the west-southwest with the initial motion
estimated to be 240/3 kt. An even slower motion is expected later
this morning, and Ana is forecast to meander through tonight while
it remains embedded within the upper-level low in weak steering
currents. However, a mid- to upper-level trough moving off of
Atlantic Canada should cause Ana to turn northeastward thereafter
and accelerate in that direction on Sunday and Monday. The NHC
track forecast lies close to the HCCA and TVCA consensus models.
Ana will likely change little in strength in the short term, but a
combination of increasing shear, dry air, and decreasing SSTs should
cause the storm to gradually weaken tonight and Sunday. Nearly all
of the models show Ana opening up into a trough of low pressure in
about 48 to 60 hours, and so does the NHC forecast. The remnant
trough will likely be absorbed by a front shortly thereafter.
The Bermuda Weather Service has a Tropical Storm Watch in effect
for the island of Bermuda.
Ana esta tarde con el centro expuesto.
Notar como se "aprieta" más el centro del ciclón, signo de que esta en proceso de tropicalización (aunque no tenga mucho tiempo).
Buenos días.
Ana concluyó el proceso de tropicalizacion con ayuda del máximo diurno y el NHC lo sostiene así.
Satellite images indicate that Ana has contracted significantly
since yesterday and now has a compact area of moderate convection
around the center. Given the tight low-level circulation, small
radius of maximum wind, and compact central convection, Ana is
now estimated to have transitioned from a subtropical storm to a
tropical storm. The initial intensity remains 40 kt for this
advisory based on the earlier ASCAT data, which indicated that the
tropical-storm-force winds were confined to the south side of the
circulation.
Sigue con 40kt, 1006mb. Se mueve al NNE a 20 km/h.
