El NHC aumentó sus vientos a 145 mph y mantuvo su presión estable en 943 hPa.
La discusión de pronóstico es interesante
"It's been an interesting evening with regards to analyzing the
various data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter research flight into
Hurricane Sam.
Dropsonde data in both the southeast and northwest
quadrants indicate that small eyewall mesovortices and possibly even
tornado-scale vortices were present based on the wind profiles
showing sharply opposite-direction winds from what would normally be
expected in those regions of the hurricane. Some dropsonde surface
winds have been as high as 162 kt, which is more representative of a
gust, while SFMR surface winds have been as high as 133 kt. However,
the strongest 700-mb flight-level winds have been 138-139 kt in the
northeastern quadrant, which equates to about 125-kt tangential
surface winds. Three dropsondes released in the eye indicate that
the pressure had remained steady at 943-944 mb during the duration
of the aircraft reconnoiter. That pressure equates to about 125 kt
based on various pressure-wind relationships. Based on that estimate
and the 700-mb flight-level to surface-wind conversion, the advisory
intensity is 125 kt, which is representative of the mean tangential
winds and no localized wind perturbations.
The initial motion is toward the west-northwest, or 295/07 kt.
Not to sound like a broken record (
), but no significant changes were
made to the previous track forecast and reasoning.
The radar images from the reconnaissance aircraft indicated that the
eyewall was thin in many locations due to dry-air intrusions, and
the latest SHIPS intensity output indicates that Sam will remain
within a fairly dry mid-level environment. Also, the depth of the
warm water beneath the hurricane isn't overly deep, which could
result in cold upwelling owing to Sam's slow forward motion of only
5-7 kt during the next couple of days. Eyewall replacement cycles
are also likely now due to the hurricane's small size and strong
intensity. Thus, fluctuations in intensity seem likely for the next
couple of days even though the vertical wind shear is expected to
remain quite low at only 5-10 kt. On days 3-5, however, the shear is
forecast to increase to 15-20 kt from the southwest, which is
expected to induce a slow weakening trend. However, it is likely
that Sam will remain a major hurricane through 120 h, even on days
3-5 due to the cyclone moving over warmer and deeper water during
that 3-day period. The new official intensity forecast is
essentially the same as the previous advisory, and remains above the
consensus model and is near the higher end of the intensity
guidance."
