El tiempo en NORTEAMÉRICA

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stormchaserAlberto
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensaje por stormchaserAlberto »

Ultima actualización del día.
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% de tornados.
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% de vientos.
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% de granizo.
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Discusion.
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Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Valid 300100Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE OZARKS...

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ROUGHLY ALONG
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EXTENDING INTO SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MISSOURI
VICINITY SOUTH TO THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will continue tonight from parts of far East
Texas, extreme eastern Oklahoma, and southeast Kansas eastward into
the lower and middle Mississippi Valley. Large hail, damaging winds,
and a few tornadoes are expected.

...Discussion...
Very slow eastward advance of an upper low over Kansas and an
associated surface storm system is resulting in an increase in
convective coverage/intensity this evening across parts of Missouri,
western Arkansas, and into East Texas/western Louisiana. Afternoon
destabilization -- which was aided by diurnal heating within a
relatively cloud-free dry slot which expanded across western
portions of Missouri and Arkansas -- is fueling the developing
convection.

Updraft organization/severe risk is being aided by favorably
strengthening/veering flow with height observed across the warm
sector per area VWPs and evening RAOBs. While risk persists across
the lower Mississippi Valley area, severe threat is increasing
farther north. The greatest risk this evening is expected to evolve
across the Ozarks vicinity over the next several hours -- east of a
southeast Kansas surface low and in proximity to the west-to-east
warm front where most favorable shear profiles are indicated.

Risk will likely continue into the overnight hours, crossing the
middle and lower Mississippi Valley before diminishing gradually
late in the period.

..Goss.. 03/30/2017
Proxima actualizacion: 06:00z
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stormchaserAlberto
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Registrado: Jue Feb 20, 2014 2:34 am
Ubicación: Río Tercero,Córdoba.

Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensaje por stormchaserAlberto »

Ayer, habia varias zonas del sur de los Estados Unidos bajo riesgo moderado para hoy, pero lo bajaron un toque.
Imagen
% de tornados.
Spoiler
Imagen
% de vientos.
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Imagen
% de granizo.
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Imagen
Discusion:
Spoiler
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0753 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Valid 301300Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOWER OH
VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MIDWEST TO CENTRAL
GULF COAST TO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
SLIGHT RISK...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GREAT BASIN...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are most likely from the Midwest to the Deep
South with damaging winds, a few tornadoes, and hail possible from
midday to evening.

...Midwest to the central Gulf Coast and southern Appalachians...
Ongoing convection from southern MS to an MCS over the northwest
Gulf along with scattered showers and storms over the Mid-MS Valley
and Midwest renders low confidence in the potential for robust
destabilization across the warm sector. 12Z RAOBs sampled meager
MUCAPE north of the central Gulf Coast where rich boundary-layer
moisture is confined to this region. Given the degree of moisture
farther north along with extensive cloud cover slowing diurnal
destabilization, peak MLCAPE will likely remain weak below 1000 J/kg
during the late afternoon.

As a surface cyclone becomes centered over central IL and attendant
cold front arcs southward across the MS Valley, scattered storm
development should occur around midday. Deep-layer winds will be
strong, but meridional. Both the RAP/NAM soundings depict
veer-back-veer profiles and small low-level hodographs with modest
SRH. This type of setup should foster splitting cells,
conglomerating into clusters and short-line segments, with the
primary severe threats being hail and damaging wind. A few tornadoes
may occur, but the likelihood of several tornadic storms appears too
low to warrant a broad area of enhanced probabilities.

From the central Gulf Coast to southern Appalachians, the ongoing
MCS in the northwest Gulf casts considerable uncertainty in diurnal
convective development to its immediate north. However, as a
mid-level speed max ejects across the region tonight, isolated to
scattered storms should form and/or storms that initially formed
along the cold front over MS may be sustained. While instability
will be nocturnally waning, deep-layer shear will be adequate for
all severe hazards with coverage expected to warrant category 1-2
risks.

...Great Basin...
A band of showers and isolated storms is expected to form along a
strong cold front attendant to an amplifying shortwave trough.
Although buoyancy will be scant, well-mixed thermodynamic profiles
ahead of the front should support downward momentum transport of
robust flow aloft and may yield isolated severe wind gusts.

..Grams/Dial.. 03/30/2017
Proxima actualizacion: 16:30z
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stormchaserAlberto
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Registrado: Jue Feb 20, 2014 2:34 am
Ubicación: Río Tercero,Córdoba.

Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensaje por stormchaserAlberto »

Les dejo la reciente actualizacion del convective outlook de hoy.
Imagen
% de tornados.
Spoiler
Imagen
% de vientos.
Spoiler
Imagen
% de granizo.
Spoiler
Imagen
Discusion:
Spoiler
Day 1 Convective Outlook AMEND 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Valid 302043Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MIDWEST...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDWEST
SOUTHWARD INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A LARGE
PART OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES INCLUDING COASTAL
SC/NC...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN...

AMENDED FOR NC/SC AREA LATE TONIGHT

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are most likely across the Midwest and Ohio
Valley this afternoon into evening, with other severe storms along
the central Gulf Coast. Damaging winds, isolated weak tornadoes, and
hail will be possible in these areas.

...Midwest/Ohio Valley...
Isolated cells currently exist across central Indiana near a sharp
e-w oriented warm front. Locally backed surface winds along this
front may enhance tornado potential briefly for any storms
interacting with it, before they cross over into the cooler more
stable air. Otherwise, scattered storms continue to evolve along the
main cold front to the west, from southern IL into the lower MS
valley with wind and marginal hail threat. Tornado threat looks to
be reduced across much of KY and TN due to strong boundary-layer
mixing which both reduces moisture and truncates the lower parts of
the hodograph. For more information see MCD 379.

...Alabama into the Florida Panhandle...
A renewed cluster of cells has developed across southern AL in a
region of strong heating and where lapse rates are quite steep along
with long hodographs favorable for supercells and large hail. These
cells were ahead of an approaching MCS, which continues to surge
eastward across southern AL and into the western FL panhandle. While
hodographs are long, low-level shear is not particularly strong,
suggesting low end tornado threat. However, the orientation of the
deep-layer shear vectors are largely parallel to the approaching
line of storms, such that it remains possible that a brief/weak
tornado could still occur. Otherwise, hail would appear to be the
main threat. For more information see MCD 380.

...Coastal Eastern SC and southern NC Late Tonight...
Visible satellite imagery shows a boundary extending eastward from
southern SC with mid 60s dewpoints to the south of it. As the upper
trough approaches later tonight, this moisture will move farther
inland, an orient with an increasing low level jet with 30-40 kt at
850 mb. Several CAMs show the potential for isolated supercells to
form, perhaps over the water and move northward through early Friday
morning. Instability will not be strong but perhaps sufficient to
support a localized severe risk. Forecast soundings show favorable
hodographs for supercells, and perhaps a localized tornado threat.
Thus, have upgraded the tornado probabilities in this area.

..Jewell.. 03/30/2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1150 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017/

...Midwest and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys...
A closed mid/upper-level low will continue a slow general eastward
progression from the lower MO Valley and Ozarks toward the lower OH
River Valley through tonight. A related surface low will continue to
develop east-northeastward from east-central MO into central IL,
while a warm front advances northward across eastern IL and much of
IN/OH. Overall buoyancy will remain modest today and cloud cover has
remained semi-prevalent into midday across the warm sector. However,
some cloud breaks are noted near/just east of the MS River with
mid/upper 50s and some lower 60s F surface dewpoints otherwise
expected to expand northward in tandem with the warm front.

As gradual air mass destabilization occurs, storms may first
intensify across far eastern MO into southern IL just ahead of the
surface low and in concert with the aforementioned cloud breaks at
late morning. Additional warm sector or near-warm-frontal-related
development should also occur this afternoon into IN/OH this
afternoon, while other storms should form near the cold front across
KY/TN. While buoyancy will not be robust in most areas, long/largely
unidirectional hodographs, albeit with some near-1km AGL hodograph
curvature, will support a mixed mode including supercells and fast
northeastward-moving bows. Severe hail and damaging winds will be
possible, with a least some tornado risk as well, particularly near
the warm front where low-level SRH will be maximized.

...Gulf Coast States/lower MS River Valley...
12Z Upper-air data and contemporary surface observations/visible
satellite imagery show that considerable convective overturning has
occurred across parts of the region via an overnight/early morning
MCS. Ahead of a slow-moving convective cluster across southeast MS
and coastal eastern LA at late morning, the main severe risk should
be confined to far southeast MS into southern AL/FL panhandle and
eventually southwest GA. For additional short-term details, see
Mesoscale Discussion 377.

Farther west, in the wake of the early-morning MCS, some additional
development may occur near the north/south-oriented cold front this
afternoon. However, persistent cloud cover, modest
moisture/buoyancy, and limited near-frontal convergence all imply
that any near-frontal severe risk later this afternoon/evening
should remain limited across the lower MS Valley vicinity.

...Great Basin...
A band of showers and isolated storms is expected to form along a
strong cold front attendant to an amplifying shortwave trough.
Although buoyancy will be scant, well-mixed thermodynamic profiles
ahead of the front should support downward momentum transport of
robust flow aloft and may yield isolated severe wind gusts.
Proxima actualizacion: 01:00z.
A continuación, paso a dejarles las discusiones a mesoescala del día de hoy y los watches.
Imagen
Spoiler
Mesoscale Discussion 0376
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0134 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Areas affected...south central MS through southeast LA

Concerning...Tornado Watch 101...

Valid 300634Z - 300800Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 101 continues.

SUMMARY...Tornado risk continues to trend downward as primary threat
has transitioned to isolated damaging wind across remaining portion
of tornado watch 101. This watch will be allowed to expire at 08Z.
While some risk for mainly a few strong wind gusts may persist from
southeast LA into southern MS for an hour or two beyond 08Z, the
overall threat is expected to remain too marginal for another WW
issuance.

DISCUSSION...Broken squall line from southern MS into central
portions of coastal LA is moving east at 25-30 kt, while individual
storms embedded within the line move more rapidly northeast. A few
loosely organized storms persist within a portion of the line
including bowing segments across southern and south central MS. VWP
data show largely unidirectional wind profiles with modest size
low-level hodographs. Tendency will be for the low-level jet to
gradually shift north toward the TN Valley and away from the more
unstable portion of the warm sector into the early morning. While
threat for mostly a few strong to damaging wind gusts may persist
next 2-3 hours as storms continue through the marginally unstable
environment, overall threat appears too marginal for an additional
ww issuance.

..Dial.. 03/30/2017
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Mesoscale Discussion 0377
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1110 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Areas affected...coastal MS and AL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 301610Z - 301715Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...While wind damage is perhaps possible on a localized and
intermittent basis, the expected coverage and magnitude of this
possible risk will likely preclude a severe thunderstorm watch.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows a cumulus field over
the coastal counties of MS east into the FL Panhandle and surface
observations show temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s with
dewpoints near 70 degrees F. 500-mb upper air analysis this morning
shows the leading edge of more appreciable height falls (30-60 m per
12 hours) have overspread the coastal plain of MS/AL. Background
upward vertical motion associated with mid- to upper-level forcing
for ascent and 50+ kt flow at 500-mb are aiding in the maintenance
of the squall line over coastal MS southward to the Mouth of the MS
River. A 25-kt gust was measured at KASD at 1451z in association
with the squall line.

Analysis of the KMOB VAD data shows speed shear in the lowest 5-km
but the unidirectional southerly flow will probably prove
unfavorable for isolated 50-60 mph gusts and resultant widespread
wind damage given the north-south orientation of the convective
line. Nonetheless, the mature trailing stratiform convective line
will likely continue to move east across coastal MS/AL during the
next several hours. Localized/intermittent wind damage is possible,
but the weakness in mid-level lapse rates and aforementioned
concerns on the flow geometry imply the need for a severe
thunderstorm watch is low.

..Smith/Guyer.. 03/30/2017
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Mesoscale Discussion 0378
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1156 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Areas affected...central and southern IL...southeast MO...western KY

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 301656Z - 301800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Storms will likely continue to develop and intensify near
the cold front. A wind-damage risk will likely develop this
afternoon. Hail is possible once stronger updrafts become sustained
and a tornado threat may focus near the warm front as storms
interact with the low-level vorticity rich environment.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic at 1645z shows a broken band of
thunderstorms across eastern and southeastern MO. Subjective
surface mesoanalysis places a warm front 30 miles north of STL
eastward to Indianapolis with a destabilizing warm sector across the
lower OH and middle MS Valleys with temperatures warming into the
upper 60s and dewpoints near 60 degrees F---yielding around 1000
J/kg SBCAPE per modified RAP soundings which is slightly greater
than objective analysis fields. Deep southerly flow strengthening
with height is resulting in 35-40 kt effective shear. Along the
warm frontal zone where the winds are relatively backed, an enlarged
hodograph yields around 150 m2/s2 0-1km SRH.

A mixed mode of both linear structures and cells are expected to
evolve within the convective band and move into IL/KY during the
next few hours. Hail may accompany the stronger cells. Wind damage
and isolated strong/severe gusts are possible with the cells and
linear segments as greater storm organization occurs this afternoon.
The conditional tornado risk may tend to focus near the warm front
and likely be predicated/dependent on a strong updraft interacting
favorably with the low-level vorticity rich environment.

..Smith/Guyer.. 03/30/2017
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Mesoscale Discussion 0379
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Areas affected...Central/Southern IN...far northern KY...western OH

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 301755Z - 302000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage will increase over the next hour or
so, with an attendant increase in the severe threat as well.
Damaging wind gusts and few tornadoes are possible and a watch will
likely be needed across portions of the area to cover the potential
threat.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows that cumulus clouds
have increased in the area of clearing across western IN over the
past half hour, suggesting both an increase in the forcing for
ascent as well as some destabilization. Wave structure to the new
clouds suggests the area remains stable but continued moisture
advection into the region should result in further destabilization
and an overall environment more supportive of surface-based storms.

Strong kinematic fields across the region have been sampled well by
area VAD profiles. Recent data from IND and ILX reported 0-6 km bulk
shear around 50 kt, which is more than sufficient for organized
updrafts. The somewhat limited instability and poor mid-level lapse
rates should limit hail production within these organized updrafts
but damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are still possible. The
tornado threat will be locally higher in those areas where the
surface winds remain backed, especially near the warm front. Given
this potential threat, a watch will likely be needed across portions
of the region this afternoon and evening.

..Mosier/Guyer.. 03/30/2017
Imagen
Spoiler
Mesoscale Discussion 0380
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Areas affected...Southern AL...western FL Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 301844Z - 301945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated wind damage and hail is possible across southern
AL for the next few hours. Isolated damaging wind gust/tornado
threat is also possible ahead of the line across the western FL
panhandle.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm coverage has increased over the past hour
across southern AL, with several of these storms exhibiting
supercellular characteristics, particularly the storm which
developed over Escambia county (now in Butler county). This increase
in activity appears to be associated with the arrival of better low
to mid-level moisture and possibly an increase in large-scale
forcing for ascent as the upper level jet streak approaches the
region. The airmass across the region is currently moderately
unstable and the shear is expected to gradually increase over the
next few hours and mid-level flow increases. The close proximity of
much of this development suggests a mixed storm mode with
clusters/small bowing segments likely dominating. As a result, the
primary severe threat will likely result from storm mergers, at
least over the next few hours. Some hail and damaging wind gusts are
possible.

Farther south, the ongoing line of storms currently moving through
southern AL will continue eastward into the western FL panhandle
during the next hour so. Surface winds ahead of the line aren't
particularly strong but the more southeasterly character of these
winds coupled with a moist low-level airmass will support an
isolated damaging wind gust/tornado threat.

..Mosier/Guyer.. 03/30/2017
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Spoiler
Mesoscale Discussion 0381
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0327 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Areas affected...western KY...southern and east-central
IL...southwest into central IN...west-central OH

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 103...104...

Valid 302027Z - 302100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 103, 104
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated marginally severe hail and strong to locally
severe gusts are possible this afternoon with the stronger storms.
A low risk for a tornado will likely focus over central and
east-central Indiana within tornado watch 104.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a broken band of line segments and
cells from north to south from central IL into western TN. Cellular
storms continue to develop ahead of the band in the free warm sector
across the lower Wabash Valley and into central Indiana and
west-central OH. A warm front is slowly advancing northward across
central Indiana and west-central OH and is evident by temperatures
warming into the middle 60s from the upper 50s along the I-69
corridor northeast of Indianapolis. Easterly low-level flow is
being maintained immediately north of I-70 in central Indiana and OH
and is resulting in enlarged hodographs which may bolster a narrow
north-south corridor for weak supercell tornado potential.
Elsewhere away from the warm front, tornado potential appears
significantly limited as both low-level shear and surface
temperature-dewpoint spreads become less favorable for low-level
mesocyclones. However, warmer temperatures over the lower Wabash
Valley and eastward across south-central Indiana have resulted in
steepened 0-3 km lapse rates. Isolated damaging winds via
strong/locally severe gusts and marginally severe hail with the more
intense updrafts will likely be the main hazards with this activity
as it moves eastward across the lower Wabash Valley and into
south-central Indiana over the next 2-3 hours.

..Smith.. 03/30/2017
Imagen
Spoiler
Mesoscale Discussion 0382
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0433 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Areas affected...Western/central FL Panhandle...Far southeast
AL...Far southwest GA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 302133Z - 302300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Convective line approaching the region may pose a risk for
damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two. Trends across the region
will be monitored for possible watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Well-developed convective line extending from far
southern AL into the northeast Gulf of Mexico is expected to
continue eastward/northeastward over the next several hours. Current
storm motion estimate for this line is northeastward (230-240
degrees) at 40 kt, which brings it near VPS around 22Z and to ECP
around 23Z. The airmass downstream of the line across the
west/central FL Panhandle and southeast AL/southwest GA is
characterized by temperatures in the mid 70s to low 80s, dewpoints
in mid 50s to mid 60s, and modest instability. Mesoanalysis
estimates the MLCAPE is currently around 500 J/kg. Low-level
southeasterly flow ahead of the line will help advect better
low-level moisture into the region, resulting in a modest increase
in instability just ahead of the line. This southeasterly low-level
flow will also contribute to better low-level shear, resulting in a
non-zero tornado threat, particularly given the anticipated
moistening of the airmass. Additionally, some forward propagation of
the line may result, contributing to increased threat for damaging
wind gusts. However, coverage of these severe events is currently
expected to be isolated, owing primarily the limited extent of the
better low-level moisture and the resulting less-favorable
thermodynamics inland from the coastal areas. Even so, the
well-developed nature of the approaching line bears watching and
trends across the region will be monitored closely for potential
watch issuance.

..Mosier/Edwards.. 03/30/2017
Imagen
Spoiler
Mesoscale Discussion 0383
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0540 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Areas affected...Portions of the Ohio Valley southward to
western/middle Tennessee

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 103...

Valid 302240Z - 302345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 103
continues.

SUMMARY...A broken band of thunderstorms will push eastward out of
the current severe thunderstorm watch this evening. While a marginal
damaging-wind risk may persist downstream of this watch,
thunderstorms should remain disorganized enough to preclude new
watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Strong to briefly severe thunderstorms across portions
of the Ohio Valley southward to western Tennessee are progressing
eastward early this evening. While relatively strong southerly
uni-directional flow aloft and mixed low-level profiles may favor an
isolated damaging-wind threat through mid evening, convection should
remain relatively disorganized. This expectation is based on the
observation of veered near-surface flow noted in regional
observations and VWP data ahead of the line, as well as the narrow
buoyancy observed in the 20Z OHX sounding and various forecast
soundings. Additionally, efficient diabatic cooling will reduce
surface-based buoyancy through this evening. In turn, updraft
accelerations should suffer from weak low-level convergence and
considerable dry-air entrainment, likely precluding greater
convective organization and the need for a downstream watch.

..Picca.. 03/30/2017
Imagen
Spoiler
Mesoscale Discussion 0384
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0605 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Areas affected...Portions of Indiana and Ohio

Concerning...Tornado Watch 104...

Valid 302305Z - 310000Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 104 continues.

SUMMARY...An occasional damaging-wind risk will exist across
portions of southern/central Indiana over the next couple of hours
before diminishing this evening. A low-end tornado threat may also
persist in the near term close to the warm front across central
Indiana and Ohio.

DISCUSSION...A broken band of thunderstorms continues east across
central/southern Indiana this evening, aided by downstream
propagation within a relatively dry/well-mixed low-level
environment. This thermodynamic profile, combined with ample
uni-directional southwesterly flow, will maintain some damaging-wind
risk with small bowing segments through the early/mid evening hours.
However, due to the dry near-surface profile, diabatic cooling
should quickly render a stabilizing boundary layer, reducing the
threat for gusty/damaging winds.

Farther northeast, a very narrow corridor exists for low-end tornado
potential at the warm front. Here, backed surface flow yields more
notable veering with height, which may briefly yield low-level
mesocyclones and a quick uptick in tornadic potential. However,
similar to the damaging-wind risk, this threat should diminish
further over the next few hours.

Lastly, a gradual increase in large-scale ascent over Ohio has
yielded a few strong/briefly severe cells rooted above the surface.
Despite relatively narrow buoyancy profiles, strong effective shear
may continue to be sufficient for isolated instances of marginally
severe hail this evening. However, due to the low-end nature of the
threat, watch issuance is not expected.

..Picca.. 03/30/2017
Imagen
Spoiler
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 103
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Central and southern Illinois
Western Kentucky
Far eastern Missouri

* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 1230 PM
until 800 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to develop
and intensify as they race northeastward from far eastern Missouri
into central/southern Illinois and western Kentucky. A marginally
moist and unstable environment and ample vertical shear will support
a wind damage risk along with some potential for hail and possibly a
brief tornado or two (mainly across Illinois portions of the Watch).

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles north northwest
of Decatur IL to 35 miles south of Paducah KY. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
22035.

...Guyer
Imagen
Spoiler
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 104
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
305 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Central and southern Indiana
Western Ohio

* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 305 PM until
1000 PM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...The air mass will continue to gradually destabilize along
and south of a northward-moving warm front across Indiana and
western Ohio. Aside from a damaging wind/some hail risk, moderately
strong low-level shear will support the possibility of tornadoes,
particularly near the warm front.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles
north and south of a line from 10 miles west northwest of Terre
Haute IN to 35 miles north of Dayton OH. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 103...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
storm motion vector 23035.

...Guyer
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensaje por stormchaserAlberto »

Ultima actualizacion del convective outlook de hoy.
Imagen
% de tornados.
Spoiler
Imagen
% de vientos destructivos.
Spoiler
Imagen
% de granizo.
Spoiler
Imagen
Discusion:
Spoiler
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0805 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Valid 310100Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN UTAH AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms will persist this evening across the Midwest
and Ohio Valley, with other severe storms extending southward to the
central Gulf Coast area. Damaging winds, isolated/brief tornadoes,
and hail will be possible in these areas.

...The eastern states...
Widespread convection is ongoing across much of the eastern U.S. at
this time, though a distinct downward trend in intensity has been
observed over the past 1-2 hours -- consistent with the onset of
diurnal stabilization.

With that said, a large/broad area of at least isolated severe risk
is evident -- most immediately from the Tennessee Valley area north
into the mid and upper Ohio Valley area. A broken band of storms
continues moving east across the mid Ohio and Tennessee Valleys
ahead of the advancing cold front -- where risk for mainly locally
damaging winds is evident. Meanwhile, damaging winds/hail and a
tornado remain possible across parts of the mid and upper Ohio
Valley area, in the vicinity of the west-to-east warm front lying
across this area.

Farther south and southeast, a band of storms continues moving
across the Alabama/Georgia border, and southward across the Florida
Panhandle into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. As a short-wave trough
continues to move quickly eastward across the central Gulf coastal
area, increasing ascent into Georgia and -- later -- the Carolinas
-- suggests this to be the region where severe risk will linger
longest. Along with potential for locally damaging winds and
possibly marginal hail, a tornado or two may also occur as storms
develop over the eastern Carolinas late in the period.

...Utah/Arizona...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue across parts of southern
Utah and adjacent northwest Arizona, in the vicinity of a
strong/digging upper trough. Though convection will remain
generally weak, locally gusty/damaging winds may persist this
evening with a few of the strongest storms.

..Goss.. 03/31/2017
Proxima actualizacion: 06:00z.
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensaje por stormchaserAlberto »

Hoy, se espera tiempo severo en sectores de la costa este de los Estados Unidos.
Imagen
% de tornados.
Spoiler
Imagen
% de vientos.
Spoiler
Imagen
% de granizo.
Spoiler
Imagen
Discusion
Spoiler
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2017

Valid 311300Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA SLIGHT RISK AREA...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, isolated large hail,
and perhaps a tornado, are expected today across North Carolina and
Virginia. Isolated, marginally severe hail will be possible tonight
across parts of Kansas/western Oklahoma and the Texas/Oklahoma
Panhandles.

...North Carolina/Virginia area through this afternoon...
A midlevel trough over the OH Valley this morning will progress
eastward to the Mid Atlantic coast tonight, as an associated surface
cyclone and cold front likewise cross NC/VA during the afternoon.
An initial band of convection across eastern NC this morning will
pose a marginal risk for damaging winds or a tornado in conjunction
with a moistening boundary layer (mid 60s dewpoints) and an increase
in low-level shear. In the wake of this morning convection, some
surface heating is expected in advance of the surface cold front.
Destabilization in a corridor ahead of the front will contribute to
thunderstorm development along and east of the boundary by early
afternoon, and the storms will cross eastern NC and VA during the
afternoon/evening. Sufficient buoyancy (MLCAPE 500-1000 J/kg) and
deep-layer vertical shear (effective bulk wind differences in excess
of 40 kt) will support a risk of supercells/organized line segments
capable of producing damaging gusts and marginally severe hail. An
isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out with the more discrete
storms given a moist boundary layer and effective SRH near 200
m2/s2.

...Texas Panhandle to southwest Kansas tonight...
Initial low-level moisture return will occur today across TX in
response to cyclogenesis across the southern High Plains (downstream
from a closed low passing south of the Four Corners). 12z soundings
along the TX coast suggest the moist layer will be shallow and
susceptible to vertical mixing today. A gradual increase in
moisture by tonight should be sufficient for thunderstorm
development to the north of a slow-moving front in a low-level
warm-advection regime from the TX Panhandle into western OK and
southwestern KS. The NAM appears to be too aggressive with the
moisture return and resultant buoyancy tonight, while the RAP/GFS
forecasts of 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE look more reasonable. The
combination of modest buoyancy rooted in the 850-700 mb layer,
midlevel lapse rates at or above 8 C/km and effective bulk shear in
excess of 40 kt could support some storm organization and a risk for
isolated marginally severe hail.

..Thompson.. 03/31/2017
Proxima actualizacion: 16:30Z.
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensaje por stormchaserAlberto »

Les dejo 2 discusiones a mesoescala de las ultimas horas.
Imagen
Spoiler
Mesoscale Discussion 0385
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1153 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Areas affected...Portions of South Carolina and far southern North
Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 310453Z - 310700Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will gradually organize across coastal South
Carolina over the next 2-3 hours, with a potential threat for a few
damaging-wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two.

DISCUSSION...As large-scale ascent related to the main
upper/mid-level trough overspreads the southeast U.S. coast tonight,
thunderstorms should increase in coverage over parts of
central/coastal South Carolina. Over the next several hours, a weak
frontal boundary, currently stretching from the SC/GA border
east/southeastward to the central SC coast, will slowly advance
northeast in tandem with a strengthening low-level mass response. To
the south of this boundary, modest surface moistening (e.g., dew
points rising into the mid/upper 60s) across eastern SC will combine
with cooling aloft to produce MLCAPE values upwards of 500-1000
J/kg. In addition, as the trough approaches from the west,
south/southwesterly low/mid-level flow will strengthen and veer with
height, enhancing effective storm-relative helicity, especially in
the vicinity of the front/confluence boundary. Considering the
relatively moist and weakly unstable nature of the environment, more
vigorous/organized convection late tonight may support spotty
damaging winds and/or a couple tornadoes. While uncertainty remains
with regards to the timing and overall coverage of stronger
convection, enough potential exists that trends will be monitored
for possible watch issuance within the next 2-3 hours.

..Picca/Edwards.. 03/31/2017
Imagen
Spoiler
Mesoscale Discussion 0386
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0857 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2017

Areas affected...east-central and eastern NC...southeast VA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 311357Z - 311600Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Storm organization is expected this morning. Isolated
damaging winds are becoming an increasing possibility along with a
low conditional risk for a weak tornado.

DISCUSSION...13z subjective surface mesoanalysis places a residual
frontal zone over the eastern shore of MD and arcing southwest into
south-central VA. The maritime air mass south of the front becomes
increasingly unstable with southward extent with surface
temperatures over southeast VA near 60 degrees F to the mid-upper
60s in eastern NC. Likewise, dewpoints correspondingly range from
the upper 50s over southeast VA and into the middle 60s within a
plume of richer moisture near and north of Cape Fear. Modifying the
12z MHX raob for 13z surface conditions within the moist axis yields
250-500 J/kg MLCAPE.

The KMHX VAD shows a veering wind profile with height and 200-300
m2/s2 0-1 km SRH and 40-kt effective shear. Given the low CAPE/high
shear setup, a conditional risk for isolated severe will probably
evolve as storms gradually intensify. Considerable cloudiness/rain
will limit greater destabilization and an overall greater severe
risk. Nonetheless, a couple of line segments (most likely over
southeast VA into far northeast NC) may pose an isolated damaging
wind hazard and a supercell or two (in addition to a line segment)
may yield a conditionally higher risk for isolated severe over
eastern NC.

..Smith/Hart.. 03/31/2017
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensaje por stormchaserAlberto »

Tiempo severo nuevamente. Ya llevamos una seguidilla de 8 días casi ininterrumpidos de tiempo severo.
Imagen
% de tornados.
Spoiler
Imagen
% de vientos.
Spoiler
Imagen
% de granizo.
Spoiler
Imagen
Discusion.
Spoiler
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0244 PM CDT Sat Apr 01 2017

Valid 012000Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST
TEXAS INTO THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA TO THE RIO GRANDE RIVER...

...SUMMARY...
Large hail and damaging winds, and an isolated tornado, will be
possible this afternoon/evening across northwest Texas. Additional
severe storms will likely form overnight across the Edwards Plateau.

No changes were required to the previous outlook. For more
information regarding the severe threat from northwest into north
central Texas, see MCD 392.

..Jewell.. 04/01/2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT Sat Apr 01 2017/

...TX...
The ongoing forecast seems to be on track, with only small changes
made in this update. The 12Z NAM/NSSL solutions suggest the
potential for afternoon thunderstorms forming near the DFW Metroplex
in a region of strong heating/destabilization and weak cap. While
this scenario is uncertain, the environment would favor a risk of
severe storms capable of hail and perhaps a tornado if they were to
occur. Therefore have shifted the SLGT back into this region.

Thunderstorms are expected to form this afternoon near the surface
cold front - dryline triple-point near ABI and track northeastward.
These storms will likely pose a risk of large hail and damaging
winds, with some risk of a tornado in the first hour or two after
initiation. These storms will spread into southern OK where weaker
instability should slowly diminish the severe threat.

Later tonight, strong upper forcing will spread into the Big Bend
region, helping to initiate thunderstorms over northern Mexico and
southwest TX. These storms are expected to move across the Edwards
Plateau overnight and into central TX by 12Z. Very large hail and
damaging winds are possible.
Proxima actualizacion: 01:00z.
Discusion a mesoescala N* 392
Imagen
Spoiler
Mesoscale Discussion 0392
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 PM CDT Sat Apr 01 2017

Areas affected...Portions of the TX Big Country and vicinity

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 011931Z - 012200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Portions of the Big Country of TX and vicinity are being
monitored for increasing severe-thunderstorm potential this
afternoon, and a watch may become necessary for parts of the area.

DISCUSSION...Surface observations and recent visible satellite
imagery indicate a quasi-stationary boundary extending from west of
Wichita Falls to a triple-point low near Howard County to the TX
Trans-Pecos region. A dryline arches from the low to the Stockton
Plateau, with a plume of 8-9-C/km lapse rates in the lowest 3 km AGL
extending from the TX Trans-Pecos region to the proximity of the
dryline circulation. Meanwhile, within the warm/moist sector,
poleward moisture transport continues, with dewpoints in the
lower/middle 60s as far north as a wavy, diffuse warm front / marine
boundary analyzed from southern parts of the Low Rolling Plains to
northern parts of central TX. Steep midlevel lapse rates surmounting
the warm/moist boundary layer are supporting MLCAPE around
1000-2500 J/kg near and south of the warm front, which should slowly
build northward during the next several hours.

Relatively more widespread insolation across the western fringes of
the warm/moist sector has given way to increasingly agitated
boundary-layer cumulus fields within about 60-90 miles east of the
dryline. Related erosion of capping, further bolstered by modest
midlevel ascent accompanying a meridionally oriented midlevel speed
maximum glancing the area, should contribute to surface-based
convective development over western sections of the MCD area in the
20-21Z time frame. Thunderstorms will spread generally eastward and
northeastward into the evening hours.

The presence of 35-50 kt of effective shear will support organized
convective structures, including initial supercells/supercell
clusters, capable of large hail and damaging winds. Except for a
small area just south-southeast of the triple point, shear vectors
are oriented generally parallel to initiating boundaries. As a
result, there should be a tendency for convection to locally grow
upscale, mitigating the tornado risk. Nevertheless, pre-existing
vertical vorticity overlapping more robust low-level CAPE near the
triple point could support a tornado or two with the more robust
discrete cells, initially. However, the tornado risk should be
limited by the eventual transition to more linear modes, along with
weak low-level shear.

Farther to the east across north TX, the development of sustained,
surface-based convection is uncertain owing to the lack of stronger
deep ascent. The peripheral influence of the midlevel speed maximum
could offer some potential for thunderstorm development, though this
activity may remain rooted above a stable layer to the north of the
warm front. However, relatively longer/more curved low-level
hodographs with eastward extent across the region, and similarly
favorable deep shear, will offer conditional potential for supercell
storms/clusters to develop. Large hail and damaging winds could
accompany this activity, along with some tornado potential,
especially later in the afternoon and into the evening. This
potential will largely depend upon whether storms form in the more
modest warm-advection plume to the east, and whether storms ingest
surface-based effective inflow -- both factors are presently
associated with marked uncertainty.

..Cohen/Hart.. 04/01/2017
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensaje por stormchaserAlberto »

Imagen
Spoiler
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 106
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
320 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Texas Big Country

* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 320 PM until
1000 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will form this afternoon over parts of
western North TX and spread across the watch area. The most intense
storms will be capable of large hail and damaging winds.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles east and west of a line from 70 miles north of Abilene
TX to 25 miles southeast of San Angelo TX. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU6).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
22030.

...Hart
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensaje por stormchaserAlberto »

Imagen
Spoiler
Mesoscale Discussion 0393
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0554 PM CDT Sat Apr 01 2017

Areas affected...Portions of the Texas Big Country and Edwards
Plateau

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 106...

Valid 012254Z - 020030Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 106
continues.

SUMMARY...Strong/severe thunderstorms will persist across primarily
central and southern portions of Watch 106 this evening.
Additionally, a southward expansion may be necessary if convective
trends warrant.

DISCUSSION...Through 22Z, the severe threat in Watch 106 has been
confined to a supercell that formed near a triple point near the
I-20 corridor this afternoon. However, this storm has become rooted
above a shallow surface stable layer, as a cold front steadily
pushes southeast across the Big Country. With this cell becoming
progressively displaced from warm/moist surface air, continued
weakening is probable. However, persistent large-scale ascent and
considerable effective shear may maintain some threat for large hail
with any cell that develops across northern portions of the watch.

Farther south, convection has attempted to organize from the
dryline/cold front intersection to points southeastward along a
remnant boundary extending towards Llano, TX. Overall, weak surface
convergence and mid-level flow perpendicular to this initiating
boundary have given cells a rather elongated, marginal structure.
While the cold front will gradually undercut the northwestern extent
of these cells, a band of ascent aloft (noted in water vapor
imagery) may yield a few stronger cells near/south of the ongoing
watch (either along the dryline/cold front or the remnant boundary).
Here, steep mid-level lapse rates and ample effective shear would
yield a threat for both large hail and damaging winds with more
robust cells. As such, southward expansion of the ongoing watch may
be needed if convective trends warrant.

..Picca.. 04/01/2017
Imagen
Spoiler
Mesoscale Discussion 0394
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0720 PM CDT Sat Apr 01 2017

Areas affected...Portions of the Edwards Plateau

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 020020Z - 020145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A localized threat for strong wind gusts and large hail
may exist with cells crossing the Rio Grande River over the next
hour. However, the threat should remain too small in spatial extent
for watch issuance within the next 2-3 hours.

DISCUSSION...Left and right splits of a cell that organized over the
Serranias del Burro are approaching the Rio Grande this evening,
aided by a band of ascent associated with an upper-level southerly
jet. While deeper moisture remains displaced to the east (evident in
the 00Z DRT sounding), steep low/mid-level lapse rates and
relatively straight, elongated hodographs (representing around 50-55
kt of effective shear) may maintain one or both of these cell splits
as they enter Texas. Moreover, occasional updraft organization from
strong southwesterly mid-level flow may yield isolated large hail.
Strong, gusty winds also remain a possibility considering the deeply
mixed boundary layer. Nonetheless, a lack of more substantial
moisture and forcing for ascent should keep this severe threat
brief/localized, precluding watch issuance.

By late evening into early tonight, a more substantial threat should
materialize, as low-level moisture surges west and convection
re-develops along higher terrain. However, this scenario will be
addressed in a later mesoscale discussion.

..Picca/Edwards.. 04/02/2017
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Ezequiel95

Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensaje por Ezequiel95 »

Ojala algún dia seamos asi aca!
Muy bueno el seguimiento que estas haciendo!