El tiempo en NORTEAMÉRICA

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stormchaserAlberto
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensaje por stormchaserAlberto »

Actualizacion del convective outlook.
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% de tornados.
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% de vientos.
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% de granizo.
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Discusion:
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Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0757 PM CDT Sat Apr 01 2017

Valid 020100Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
SLIGHT RISK AND INCLUDING NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado will be possible this
evening and overnight across central Texas into parts of southwest
Texas.

...TX...
Satellite imagery Saturday evening shows a closed mid- to
upper-level low over the Desert Southwest and a mid-level vorticity
maximum located over northwest Mexico. The vorticity maximum is
forecast to move through the base of the larger-scale trough and
reach the TX Big Bend region by early morning Sunday. Evening
subjective surface analysis indicates a wavy cold front is draped
from south-central OK into the Big Bend area. During the evening
hours, a couple of isolated strong to severe storms are forecast
across central TX and perhaps as far north as the Red River. Large
hail and localized severe gusts are the main hazards. Beginning
later this evening through the end of the Day 1 period,
strengthening large-scale ascent will spread east across northern
Mexico and into TX. Meanwhile in the low levels, southeasterly flow
will advect richer moisture into the Hill Country and southern
portion of the Edwards Plateau. Forecast soundings show strong
shear profiles supportive of organized storms. Early in the
convective life cycle, supercells will be favored and an
accompanying risk for large to very large hail and severe gusts.
Although a weak inversion will likely persist, enlarging hodographs
in the warm sector near the boundary may prove favorable for
low-level mesocyclones and a tornado threat. During the 08-12z
period, it seems likely additional intense storms will develop and
grow upscale into an expanding thunderstorm cluster and result in a
corresponding increase in the risk for severe gusts, in addition to
large hail.

..Smith.. 04/02/2017
Proxima actualizacion: 06:00z.
Ezequiel95 escribió:Ojala algún dia seamos asi aca!
Muy bueno el seguimiento que estas haciendo!
Siempre que sea posible, voy a estar haciendolo. Espero ver los resultados reflejados a fin de año :)
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Ezequiel95

Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensaje por Ezequiel95 »

Si, es cierto. Este año lo voy a tener en cuenta!
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stormchaserAlberto
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensaje por stormchaserAlberto »

Sweetwater, Texas.
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stormchaserAlberto
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensaje por stormchaserAlberto »

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Spoiler
Mesoscale Discussion 0395
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0844 PM CDT Sat Apr 01 2017

Areas affected...Portions of central Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 106...

Valid 020144Z - 020245Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 106
continues.

SUMMARY...The ongoing severe threat associated with Watch 106 will
likely be focused with a supercell thunderstorm over Coleman County
and nearby thunderstorms over the next 1-2 hours.

DISCUSSION...KSJT radar data depict a high-precipitation supercell
over Coleman County as of 0130Z, with the overall storm motion
eastward around 15 kt. This storm has possessed a rather broad, but
persistent low/mid-level mesocyclone, in turn favoring this deviant
motion to the east. Additionally, updraft organization has promoted
considerable large-hail growth, with recent MRMS MESH and dual-pol
data suggesting hail diameters occasionally over 2 inches. Indeed, a
report of giant hail was received in Valera, TX at 0112Z.

As cell propagation takes this storm eastward into a plume of higher
surface dew points, a threat for large hail and damaging winds may
persist. However, a cold front is undercutting this supercell,
resulting in slow weakening with time. Occasional large hail may
remain possible with this cell or others developing over the
post-frontal stable layer this evening. As such, convective trends
could require watch extension in space/time over the next 1-2 hours.

..Picca.. 04/02/2017
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stormchaserAlberto
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensaje por stormchaserAlberto »

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Spoiler
Mesoscale Discussion 0396
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1006 PM CDT Sat Apr 01 2017

Areas affected...Portions of the Edwards Plateau and the Texas Hill
Country

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 020306Z - 020500Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage across southwest
Texas late this evening, before eventually spreading east/northeast
towards morning. Initially, large hail and damaging winds will be
the primary threat. However, a threat for a couple tornadoes will
likely materialize overnight as storms develop east. Watch issuance
is likely within the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...Convection has once again blossomed over the Serranias
del Burro mountains late this evening, likely in response to
amplifying large-scale ascent related to a strengthening upper level
jet. It is uncertain whether these cells are the beginning of a more
organized expansion of convection through the overnight hours.
However, as a southeasterly low-level jet and related moist/warm
advection intensify over the next several hours, confidence is high
that more widespread thunderstorm activity will develop near the Rio
Grande ahead of a cold front to the northwest. Initially, this
activity will interact with surface dew points in the upper 50s to
near 60. Combined with steep mid-level lapse rates and ample
effective shear (both observed in the 00Z DRT sounding), these cells
will be capable of large hail and damaging winds.

Through the early overnight however, low-level moisture will surge
westward as surface-to-850mb east/southeasterly flow intensifies.
Surface observations depict dew points in the mid/upper 60s over
south-central Texas, and this greater moisture should advance
westward quickly. Therefore, cells will evolve eastward into an
environment characterized by 2000+ J/kg of MLCAPE. Combined with
notable low-level speed shear and some veering with height, a threat
for a couple tornadoes should gradually increase through the night,
especially with eastward extent. Therefore, despite the uncertainty
regarding timing of the organized severe threat, a watch will be
likely within the next couple hours.

..Picca/Edwards.. 04/02/2017
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Spoiler
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 107
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1025 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
South-central and southwest Texas

* Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 1025 PM
until 600 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 4
inches in diameter possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...At first, a pair of thunderstorms moving out of Mexico
will pose a threat for large, damaging hail and severe gusts. With
time, additional storm development is expected on either side of the
international border, moving into an environment increasingly
favorable for a tornado or two as well. See SPC mesoscale
discussion 396 for initial meteorological reasoning.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles
either side of a line from 20 miles west northwest of Del Rio TX to
45 miles east southeast of Junction TX. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU7).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 4 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean
storm motion vector 24025.

...Edwards
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stormchaserAlberto
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensaje por stormchaserAlberto »

Y arranco la accion ya!
Imagen
Son realmente muy bestiales las SCs que se van formando en el norte de Mexico y ponen rumbo a Texas.
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stormchaserAlberto
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensaje por stormchaserAlberto »

Otro vórtice de tornado a mas de 70 kilómetros al sudoeste de Ciudad Acuña, Coahuila, Mexico.
Imagen
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stormchaserAlberto
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensaje por stormchaserAlberto »

Tiempo severo del bueno hoy en Texas y Louisiana.
Imagen
% de tornados.
Spoiler
Imagen
% de vientos.
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Imagen
% de granizo.
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Imagen
Discusion:
Spoiler
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 AM CDT Sun Apr 02 2017

Valid 021300Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS
TO EXTREME SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...CENTRAL/NORTHERN LOUISIANA...AND
EXTREME WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
TEXAS TO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
ENHANCED RISK AREA...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA...FROM THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A severe thunderstorm cluster will likely affect central/northeast
Texas into southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana today with
widespread damaging winds, a few tornadoes, and large hail.
Tornadic supercells will be possible from east central Texas across
central and northern Louisiana, immediately south of larger
thunderstorm cluster track. The risk for damaging winds and a few
tornadoes will persist overnight across Louisiana and Mississippi.

...A complex, but potentially significant severe-weather episode
with tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail is expected today
through tonight from east Texas into Mississippi...

...MCS path from central Texas to southern Arkansas/northern
Louisiana today...
A closed midlevel low now over northern Mexico will begin the
process of ejecting northeastward toward the Ark-La-Tex in response
to upstream height falls over the Pacific coast and Great Basin.
Preceding the midlevel trough, a large thunderstorm cluster has
persisted overnight near Del Rio, with cold pool formation becoming
more apparent with time with this cluster. Persistent diabatic
heating with the cluster will also lead to mesolow/MCV formation as
the convection moves northeastward today along a slow-moving surface
front, in advance of the ejecting midlevel trough.

Rich low-level moisture (boundary layer dewpoints in the low-mid
70s) beneath a remnant elevated mixed layer plume is contributing to
strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2000-3500 J/kg) in the warm sector this
morning across south TX. The warm sector will spread northeastward
in tandem with the MCS, which should eventually develop bowing
characteristics. East-southeast of the MCS, low-level warm
advection on the northeast side of the warm sector will support an
increase in thunderstorm development across east TX through the
morning. The morning warm-advection storms may remain slightly
elevated, though gradual surface warming through midday and strong
low-level and deep-layer vertical shear will favor supercells. The
net result of this complex evolution should be an
intensifying/bowing MCS with merging cells and an increasingly
widespread damaging wind risk, as well as the potential for
tornadoes with embedded circulations through the afternoon/evening.

...Immediately southeast of the MCS track this afternoon/evening
from east Texas to central/northern Louisiana...
Boundary layer destabilization through the day will make
surface-based supercell development more likely from east TX into
central/northern LA, immediately south of the MCS path.
Semi-discrete storms are expected to mature in the warm sector and
potentially interact with the outflow boundary trailing from the MCS
a little farther north. Any sustained supercells, especially along
the I-20 corridor in LA this afternoon/evening, will be capable of
producing strong tornadoes and very large hail.

...Louisiana/Mississippi overnight...
Additional severe storm development is expected by this evening into
tonight from extreme southeast TX into LA, ahead of the surface cold
front. This convection will form in an environment favorable for
supercells, though storm interactions should lead to upscale growth
into another band/line. The more discrete storms, as well as
circulations embedded within the line, will pose a risk for damaging
winds and a few tornadoes overnight into MS, while the convective
band could approach west-central or northwest AL near sunrise.

..Thompson/Cohen.. 04/02/2017
Proxima actualizacion: 16:30Z.
--------------------------------------------------------
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Spoiler
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 108
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
555 AM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Parts of central and east Texas

* Effective this Sunday morning and afternoon from 555 AM until
100 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...A large cluster of thunderstorms that has persisted
overnight west of San Antonio will likely begin to organize into
more of a bowing line with time, with an attendant increase in the
damaging wind risk. Embedded circulations will also pose a tornado
risk. Ahead of the line of storms, more isolated cells now forming
in the Houston to Austin corridor will shift northward with time,
and some could become supercells capable of producing a few
tornadoes later this morning. Large hail will also be possible with
the stronger storms.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles
north and south of a line from 55 miles west of Hondo TX to 40 miles
south southeast of Tyler TX. For a complete depiction of the watch
see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 107...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean
storm motion vector 24035.

...Thompson
Imagen
Spoiler
Mesoscale Discussion 0397
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 AM CDT Sun Apr 02 2017

Areas affected...South-central and southwest TX

Concerning...Tornado Watch 107...

Valid 020753Z - 020915Z

CORRECTED FOR DUPLICATE GRAPHICAL AREA (LAT/LONG POINTS) OF CONCERN.

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 107 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe storms remain likely across the western half of WW
107 with large hail and damaging winds being the primary threat in
the short term trough 09Z. Trends with the southern most discrete
storm in northern Coahuila Mexico suggest it could move into
northwest Maverick county TX by 08Z. Local WFO areal extension may
be needed on the southern part of WW 107.

DISCUSSION...Early overnight trends in mosaic radar imagery
indicated the strongest storms capable of producing severe-weather
(mainly hail and/or damaging winds, at this time) extended from
southern Val Verde county to south of the International border in
northern Coahuila (60 SW to 35 S of DRT). This activity was located
equatorward of the southern extent of a convectively reinforced cold
front, which at 07Z extended from San Saba County to near KJCT to
northern Val Verde County. IR satellite imagery indicated the
coldest cloud tops were located along the International border with
Val Verde County, while radar imagery showed new thunderstorm
development occurring along the southwest flank (in northern
Coahuila) of this cluster of thunderstorms.

Forcing for ascent attendant to an apparent midlevel impulse moving
from the TX Big Bend region into the Edwards Plateau and height
falls with the approaching this region from Chihuahua Mexico and Far
West TX are expected to maintain this cluster of storms into the
early morning. Forecast veering of 40 kt 850-mb and 700-mb jets to
southerly and southwesterly overnight into this morning should
result in an east-northeast advancement of the organizing MCS along
the International border into Val Verde and Kinney Counties. The
03Z ESRL-HRRR continues to show this evolution in storm mode, given
a persistent influx of rich moisture from the northwest Gulf of
Mexico combined with strong effective bulk shear of 50+ kt.

Farther north across northern Val Verde to Sutton Counties, the
severe-weather threat appears to be diminishing as the air mass has
been convectively overturned. Thunderstorms should persist
overnight, though the severe risk is likely lower than earlier.

..Peters.. 04/02/2017
Imagen
Spoiler
Mesoscale Discussion 0398
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0516 AM CDT Sun Apr 02 2017

Areas affected...South-central to northeast TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 021016Z - 021215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...A new tornado watch will be issued by 1030-11Z for
portions of south-central to northeast TX. All severe hazards will
be possible through this morning into the afternoon across the
discussion area.

DISCUSSION...Ongoing strong to severe storms located in central and
southwest portions of WW 107 are embedded within an MCS with the
likelihood for MCV formation in this complex, given an extended
period of latent heat release. Meanwhile, additional cloud-top
cooling per IR satellite imagery and reflectivity developing from
the vicinity of KAUS to KHOU is occurring within strengthening
low-level warm air advection on the north edge of the surface warm
sector. A strengthening and veering low-level jet has maintained
rich moisture return across south-central into central and southeast
TX overnight, with ongoing destabilization expected to persist
through the morning into the afternoon across the discussion area.
Strengthening vertically veering winds with the approach of the
mid-upper level trough into southwest and central TX will sustain
strong bulk shear and increasing low-level shear to support both
bowing lines and supercells. Surface-based supercells will become
more probable across the northern extent of the warm sector toward
midday. There will be a gradual increase in damaging winds, hail,
and tornado threats through the day.

..Peters/Thompson.. 04/02/2017
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stormchaserAlberto
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensaje por stormchaserAlberto »

Imagen
Spoiler
Mesoscale Discussion 0399
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0904 AM CDT Sun Apr 02 2017

Areas affected...eastern Texas through extreme western Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 021404Z - 021630Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for tornadoes is expected to increase from late
morning into the afternoon over a portion of east TX. A tornado
watch will likely be issued for parts of east TX into western LA by
16Z, and a PDS tornado watch is being considered. The new watch
might also replace the eastern portion of tornado watch 108.

DISCUSSION...Early this morning numerous discrete to semi-discrete
storms including supercells are developing within a zone of warm
advection and isentropic ascent in the vicinity of a warm front
located from southern LA through eastern TX. The storms north of the
warm front are likely slightly elevated, while activity along and
just south of this boundary are probably ingesting
near-surface-based inflow parcels.

Current expectations are for the storms well north of the warm front
to weaken as they move north into the more stable boundary layer
across northeast TX, but may still pose a short term large hail
threat. Visible imagery indicates some diabatic warming may commence
by mid morning over southeast TX, contributing to further boundary
layer destabilization near the warm front. The front should move
slowly north as the low-level jet strengthens across eastern TX into
far western LA in response to forcing for ascent within exit region
of an upper jet rotating through base of synoptic trough. Increasing
0-1 km hodograph size resulting from the strengthening LLJ and
destabilization of the boundary layer should contribute to an
increasing threat for supercells with strong low-level mesocyclones
and tornadoes as storms continue developing in vicinity of the warm
front.

..Dial/Hart.. 04/02/2017
Imagen
Spoiler
Mesoscale Discussion 0400
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0905 AM CDT Sun Apr 02 2017

Areas affected...Portions of south-central/southeast LA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 021405Z - 021530Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated severe risk will exist through the morning
hours. Watch issuance is presently unlikely in the short-term,
though environmental/radar trends will continue to be monitored. The
severe risk will substantially increase later today.

DISCUSSION...Across the easternmost periphery of a warm advection
plume, an isolated cluster of intense storms is spreading eastward
across parts of south-central LA. This activity lies along a warm
frontal zone extending west-east across southern LA, which is slowly
advancing northward. With the 12Z LCH sounding indicating MLCAPE
around 2300 J/kg supported by around 8-C/km midlevel lapse rates
above a 15-g/kg mean mixing ratio, and minimal MLCINH, only minimal
low-level ascent has been necessary to support this activity. As
such, other isolated storms may also form over this segment of the
warm frontal zone during the next few hours, as modest diurnal
heating occurs, while the aforementioned thunderstorm cluster
continues spreading eastward. While stronger wind profiles are
located to the west, around 35 kt of effective shear and 200 m2/s2
of effective SRH will support occasional supercell structures
capable of severe hail, wind, and possibly a tornado risk. However,
with stronger deep ascent located farther west, any severe risk
should be quite isolated this morning -- before a more substantial
increase in the severe risk occurs later today.

..Cohen/Hart.. 04/02/2017
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Fedex
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Re: Seguimiento general en EEUU

Mensaje por Fedex »

Bien albert bancando el topic.

Acerco el sondeo de Louisiana

Imagen

Sigue inestable hasta pasando la tropopausa

Creo que siento algo de envidia, creo.
Hay que dejar de molestar a los gatitos por 2 años :roll:
Spoiler

#MuerteALasLineas

Imagen

Lo que no se soluciona, se repite