Eventos severos vespertinos USA 18/05 --> 20/05

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matute_bow
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Eventos severos vespertinos USA 18/05 --> 20/05

Mensaje por matute_bow »

Una vaguada, entre débil y moderada, se irá desplazand muy lentamente sobre las planicies centrales de Estados Unidos en los próximos días, interactuando con humedad y con enorme inestabilidad en la zona.

A las tormentas de los últimos días en la región se le van a sumar algunas condiciones dinámicas que generarán un aumento en la probabilidad de tiempo severo. Vientos en 500 hPa de hasta 40 nudos, en 250 hPa de hasta 80 nudos y por momentos la presencia de un jet de capas bajas, de hasta 35/40 nudos, interactuando con CAPEs máximos de hasta 3000 J/Kg, o más, generarán tardes interesantes con posibilidad de superceldas asociadas con granizo muy grande y algunos tornados.

Les dejo los mapas para el día de hoy (mañana los de maána y asi...) y las discusiones, por supuesto, de ellos!

500 hPa, Martes a la noche:
Imagen

4 paneles, Martes a la noche:
Imagen

Noten que el Este de Colorado y ese rinconcito (de luz :lol: :lol: :lol: ) del oeste de Texas tienen la presencia de inestabilidad y algo de cortante, y con la línea seca que va a andar a la tarde en la zona, pueden haber algunas superceldas tornádicas, así que ya veremos... :D

Les dejo la discu!

Day 1 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 am CDT Tuesday may 18 2010


Valid 181200z - 191200z


..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across the central/southern
High Plains...


...
Split upper flow regime will remain over North America during the
period. Largely cut-off upper low currently over the Ohio River valley
will continue to weaken/migrate east-northeastward...while a
southern stream shortwave trough currently over California/Nevada advances
eastward over The Four Corners vicinity today...and the
south-Central High plains late tonight.


At the surface...in response to upstream height falls...Lee
cyclogenesis will favor a more prominent low level upslope regime
across a broad-north south extent of The Rockies Front Range/High
Plains...while a convectively modified frontal zone otherwise
retreats northward across Texas. In the east...a cold
front/occlusionary frontal zone will remain a focus for
showers/thunderstorms across portions of the southeast states/Carolinas.


..central/southern High Plains to south Texas...
Multiple mesoscale convective system/S will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period
this morning across northwest Texas/perhaps adjacent OK...as well as
south Texas. A few severe thunderstorms may remain possible early this morning
in association with this activity.


Later this afternoon...leading brunt of large scale height falls and
strengthening/diffluent flow aloft...combined with surface
cyclogenesis across eastern nm/southeast Colorado and north-northwest-Ward moisture
return...will lead to an appreciable severe potential across the
central/southern High Plains. Strong/severe thunderstorms should increase
through mid/afternoon...via moist southeasterly upslope and
differential heating along the eastern Colorado/northeast nm higher
terrain...as well as the north-south extent of the dryline across
far eastern nm/far West Texas. Very steep lapse rates/moderate
instability and strong vertical shear/veering wind profiles will be
more than adequate for supercellular development...with large hail
and some tornadoes especially during the late afternoon/early
evening hours across southeast Colorado/far eastern nm and much of West
Texas. With a moderate low level jet expected to increase during the
evening...the relatively greatest tornado threat may exist across
portions of the Texas Panhandle/adjacent Texas South Plains in vicinity of
a surface low/warm front/dryline /and perhaps convective outflow/
focused triple point.


Otherwise...the nocturnally increasing/moderately strong southerly
low level jet should contribute to the organization/sustenance of
one or more southeast moving mesoscale convective system/S tonight...with continued bouts of
severe hail along with the possibility of an increasing damaging
wind threat during the evening /most probable across northwest Texas
and perhaps adjacent western OK/.


..Mt and adjacent northern High Plains...
Boundary layer moisture /mainly 40s f surface dewpoints/ will
increase across the High Plains of Montana today as Lee side
cyclogenesis/troughing occurs. With thunderstorms expected to increase
during the afternoon owing to one or middle level
disturbances/orographic forcing...steep lapse rates and as much as
500-1000 j/kg of SBCAPE /highest across southeast Montana/ will
contribute to a favorable environment for some strong/severe
thunderstorms...with hail the primary hazard.


...
Slight cooling aloft in association with cyclonic middle/upper flow
will contribute to favorable thermodynamic profiles for isolated
strong/severe thunderstorms this afternoon. A few downbursts/marginally
severe hail will be possible mainly across the eastern portions of
the Florida Peninsula.


.Guyer/Rogers.. 05/18/2010
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"-cuando estábamos jugando yo y Kiko-.-el burro por delante-.-aaa, pase usted!- JAJAJAJAJAJA, amo el chavo!, ajajajaja
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diego45
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Re: Eventos severos vespertinos USA 18/05 --> 20/05

Mensaje por diego45 »

Acá Reed comenta que están instalando en el Dominator los cañones (para lanzar sondas dentro de los tornados) que nos contaron cuando vinieron para acá, por lo que no van a poder ir a cazar tornados en este evento. También comenta que si bien según el calendario están a mitad de temporada (ya llevan 17 tornados) los modelos de largo plazo indican que esto recién comienza :D
Diego

Imagen
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matute_bow
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Re: Eventos severos vespertinos USA 18/05 --> 20/05

Mensaje por matute_bow »

diego45 escribió:Acá Reed comenta que están instalando en el Dominator los cañones (para lanzar sondas dentro de los tornados) que nos contaron cuando vinieron para acá, por lo que no van a poder ir a cazar tornados en este evento. También comenta que si bien según el calendario están a mitad de temporada (ya llevan 17 tornados) los modelos de largo plazo indican que esto recién comienza :D
Si, claro, como hace 1 mes y medio atrás que venia la vaguada del siglo, y no termino pasando nada, ajajajajaajjaa :lol: :lol: .

Diego, creele un 50% de las cosa que dice, porque es re crónica, ajajaja :lol: .

Igual hay una fuerte circulación de vaguada de onda larga a partir del fin de semana, pero ya despacio se empieza a ver a la peor zona mas al Norte, es decir la Primavera esta caminando, y allá, cuando se corta la baroclinicidad, NO VUELVE NUNCA MAS, ajajajajajaa, así que no meta excusas para no cazar, porque es cierto que va promediando la temporada, pero......
"-cuando estábamos jugando yo y Kiko-.-el burro por delante-.-aaa, pase usted!- JAJAJAJAJAJA, amo el chavo!, ajajajaja
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davidstorm
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Re: Eventos severos vespertinos USA 18/05 --> 20/05

Mensaje por davidstorm »

jaajj no es gran cosa la situacion :P ..... jejje aca tambien tenemos esa cortante... y mas aun y con ese CAPE.... asi que comparando lo que va a suceder en EEUU, seguramente aca tambien suceda :D
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davidstorm
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Re: Eventos severos vespertinos USA 18/05 --> 20/05

Mensaje por davidstorm »

acaban de declarar Riesgo Moderado!!!!!!!!...

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 AM CDT TUE MAY 18 2010

VALID 181300Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SRN HI PLNS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL HI PLNS INTO SW
TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER DEEP S TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE LWR 48.
IN THE SRN STREAM...SRN GRT BASIN TROUGH SHOULD MOVE E TO THE SRN
HI PLNS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS OH VLY SYSTEM FURTHER ELONGATES
AND CONTINUES ENE INTO THE NRN/CNTRL APPALACHIANS.

AT LWR LVLS...LEE TROUGH EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH
PERIOD...WITH MAIN SFC CENTER FORMING OVER SE CO TODAY AND ADVANCING
SLOWLY ESE TO THE OK PANHANDLE EARLY WED. LOW LVL SSELY FLOW
WILL...HOWEVER...DEVELOP ALONG THE ENTIRE ERN EXTENT OF THE RCKYS
FROM NM TO MT. MEANWHILE...CONVECTIVELY-REINFORCED FRONT NOW OVER
TX SHOULD REDEVELOP N/NE ACROSS THE SRN PLNS...WITH THE BOUNDARY
LIKELY TO EXTEND FROM THE TX PANHANDLE SE ALONG THE RED RVR BY 12Z
WED. IN THE EAST...WEAK CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE NC CST SHOULD DRIVE
COMPLEX FRONTAL ZONE SLOWLY SE ACROSS MS/AL/GA AND THE CAROLINAS.

...CNTRL/SRN HI PLNS THROUGH EARLY WED...
INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT...STRENGTHENING/DIFFLUENT UPR FLOW
...LOW LVL MOISTURE RETURN...AND SFC CYCLOGENESIS WILL SUPPORT A
SUBSTANTIAL SVR POTENTIAL OVER THE CNTRL/SRN HI PLNS TODAY/TONIGHT.
STG/SVR TSTMS SHOULD FORM MORE OR LESS SIMULTANEOUSLY IN
CONFLUENT...MODERATELY UPSLOPE FLOW OVER ERN CO/NE NM...AND ALONG
N-S DRYLINE NEAR THE NM-TX BORDER.

STEEPENING LOW TO MID LVL LAPSE RATES...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STG
VERTICAL SHEAR/VEERING WIND PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND SOME TORNADOES. THIS THREAT SHOULD
BE GREATEST LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY TONIGHT OVER SE CO/FAR ERN NM AND
MUCH OF W TX. WITH MODERATE SLY LLJ LIKELY TO INCREASE IN RESPONSE
TO CONTINUED EWD PROGRESSION OF GRT BASIN UPR TROUGH...THE
RELATIVELY GREATEST TORNADO THREAT A BIT LATER THIS EVE MAY EXIST
OVER PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT TX S PLNS...NEAR SFC
WARM FRONT/CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW/DRY LINE INTERSECTION.

OTHERWISE...THE INCREASING LLJ SHOULD SUPPORT UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT
INTO ONE OR MORE SE-MOVING MCSS TONIGHT. WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS
AND SUSTAINED STORMS/BOWING SEGMENTS...THESE LIKELY WILL YIELD A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR SVR HAIL...DMGG WIND...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD
TORNADO INTO PARTS OF NW TX AND POSSIBLY WRN OK.

...S TX THROUGH MIDDAY...
S TX MCS SHOULD CONTINUE SLOWLY ESE THROUGH LATE MORNING...
SUPPORTED BY MODEST BUT VERY MOIST SELY LOW LVL FLOW BENEATH LIGHT
WLY FLOW ALOFT. OTHER STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG WEAKENING
W/E OUTFLOW BOUNDARY S OF CRP AND ALONG SEA/LAND BREEZE BOUNDARIES
NEAR BRO. CELL MERGERS...HI PW...AND ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING MAY
SUPPORT ISOLD LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS...MARGINALLY SVR HAIL...AND
PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO /REF WW 184/.

...MT AND ADJACENT NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY OVER THE HI PLNS OF ERN MT...WITH PW
RISING TO AOA .75 INCHES AS LEE SIDE TROUGH STRENGTHENS. TSTMS
SHOULD FORM THIS AFTN ALONG THE TROUGH AND/OR ALONG TERRAIN-INDUCED
CIRCULATIONS AS HEATING BOOSTS SBCAPE TO 500-1000 J/KG /HIGHEST
ACROSS SE MT/. COUPLED WITH MODEST...DEEP...S TO SSELY FLOW AND
STEEP LOW TO MID LVL LAPSE RATES...SETUP MAY SUPPORT A FEW SMALL
CLUSTERS STG/SVR STMS. HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT.

...FL THIS AFTN...
SLIGHT COOLING/ASCENT WITH CYCLONIC MID/UPR LVL FLOW MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR ISOLD
STRONG/SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN. A FEW DOWNBURSTS/MARGINALLY
SVR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG THE E CST SEA BREEZE FRONT.

..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 05/18/2010
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matute_bow
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Re: Eventos severos vespertinos USA 18/05 --> 20/05

Mensaje por matute_bow »

Ese pasillito que les mencione a la mañana, ajajajajajaja, que loco!!!

El granizo TORONJERO! es lo más peligroso, además de algunos tornados, para la tarde de hoy :D
"-cuando estábamos jugando yo y Kiko-.-el burro por delante-.-aaa, pase usted!- JAJAJAJAJAJA, amo el chavo!, ajajajaja
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matute_bow
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Re: Eventos severos vespertinos USA 18/05 --> 20/05

Mensaje por matute_bow »

Primer tornado Watch sobre Colorado!!!!
TORONJAS warning para todos! :lol: :lol:


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 185
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
145 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

MUCH OF EASTERN COLORADO

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 145 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES NORTHEAST OF FORT
COLLINS COLORADO TO 35 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF SPRINGFIELD
COLORADO. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE QUICKLY THIS
AFTERNOON IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE WATCH AREA WITH THE
APPROACH OF UPR TROUGH AND VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES IN PLACE.
WITH HEATING THE AIR MASS IS NOW MDTLY UNSTABLE...MLCAPES TO 1200
J/KG. MOST FAVORED AREAS INITIALLY FOR SUPERCELLS AND
TORNADOES/LARGE HAIL WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE
N OF PALMER DIVIDE. SUPERCELLS WILL BECOME MORE COMMON THRU
AFTERNOON AS ACTIVITY BUILDS EWD ACROSS THE WATCH. PRIMARY THREAT
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND AT LEAST ISOLATED TORNADOES.
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"-cuando estábamos jugando yo y Kiko-.-el burro por delante-.-aaa, pase usted!- JAJAJAJAJAJA, amo el chavo!, ajajajaja
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davidstorm
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Re: Eventos severos vespertinos USA 18/05 --> 20/05

Mensaje por davidstorm »

aca una imagen de unas tormentas que estan dentro del tornado watch!!!
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Lucas de Zárate
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Re: Eventos severos vespertinos USA 18/05 --> 20/05

Mensaje por Lucas de Zárate »

que grande "THE RHINO" esta en el camino de la sc tornadica... muy buenos calculos rhino

ahh esta verne carlson ahi con razon :P
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matute_bow
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Re: Eventos severos vespertinos USA 18/05 --> 20/05

Mensaje por matute_bow »

Segundo tornado Watch!!!

Noten en el watch el posible tamaños de los granizos y las posibles ráfagas de viento, además de la chance de algunos tornados!!

Ta lennnndo hoy, y hoy quiero estar en la ciudad de Amarillo :D

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 186
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
335 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
MUCH OF TEXAS PANHANDLE

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 335 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 125 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
GUYMON OKLAHOMA TO 45 MILES SOUTHWEST OF AMARILLO TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 185...

DISCUSSION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF HIGHER
TERRAIN NERN NM AHEAD OF S/WV TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. AIR MASS HAS BECOME MDTLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES TO 2000 J/KG.
COUPLED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE VEERING SHEAR
PROFILES...SUPERCELLS WILL DEVELOP WITH THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL
AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES AS THEY MOVE EWD.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25030.
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"-cuando estábamos jugando yo y Kiko-.-el burro por delante-.-aaa, pase usted!- JAJAJAJAJAJA, amo el chavo!, ajajajaja