Tiempo severo EEUU riesgo moderado 5/6 junio 2010

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davidstorm
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Tiempo severo EEUU riesgo moderado 5/6 junio 2010

Mensaje por davidstorm »

bueno che... ahora si ... la cosa es es modera jajajaa

para el Extremo norte de Missouri, SE Iowa, Centro Norte de Indiana e Illinois y el NO de Ohi...
para esas zonas el riesgo sera moderado....

:D :D :D

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probabilidad de ocurriencia de tornados...
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Probabilidad de caida de granizo..
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Probabilidad de Fuertes vientos..
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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1249 AM CDT SAT JUN 05 2010

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN EXTREME SE IA...EXTREME NE
MO...NRN/CNTRL PARTS OF IL/IND AND NW OH...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NERN/MID-ATLANTIC
STATES TO THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
FAST ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NRN-HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL BUCKLE OVER
THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG JET STREAK
TRANSLATES RAPIDLY EWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES. TO THE SOUTH...AN
ELONGATING UPPER LOW OVER THE CNTRL/WRN GULF STATES WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE.

...UPPER MS VLY EWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/UPPER OH VALLEY...
A WEAK IMPULSE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE CORN BELT EARLY THIS MORNING
WAS ENHANCING THUNDERSTORMS AND CLUSTERS OF STORMS WILL BE ONGOING
AT 12Z OVER PARTS OF IA AND NRN IL. MAINTENANCE OF ROUGHLY 40-45 KT
OF UNIDIRECTIONAL WSW MID-LEVEL FLOW ATTENDANT TO THIS IMPULSE AND
STRONG HEATING OF AN AMPLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY
CONTRIBUTE TO A CONTINUED SEVERE RISK ACROSS CNTRL/NRN PARTS OF
IND/OH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

ATTENTION WILL THEN FOCUS UPSTREAM DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND RECOVERING AIR MASS IN WAKE
OF MORNING STORMS. SURFACE DEW POINTS IN EXCESS OF 70F...PRESENCE
OF 50-55 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND
REBOUNDING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL FOSTER SUPERCELLS AS ACTIVITY
INITIATES OVER CNTRL/ERN IA. LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE
LIKELY. AS WLY FLOW INCREASES ALONG THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH...ACTIVITY WILL TRANSITION INTO A BOWING MESOSCALE SYSTEM
WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND ACCELERATE DOWNSTREAM INTO CNTRL/NRN
IL...CNTRL/NRN IND AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF NWRN OH ALONG/S OF AN E-W
ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE BY EVENING. ALL FACETS OF SEVERE WEATHER
CAN BE ANTICIPATED WITH VERY STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL
AND A FEW TORNADOES.

WHILE LEADING STORMS WILL FORWARD-PROPAGATE INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY
OVERNIGHT...THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC SET-UP WILL FAVOR BACKBUILDING
STORMS ALONG THE SURGING COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW INTO NERN MO AND CNTRL
IL OVERNIGHT WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED RISKS FOR HIGH WINDS/HAIL.

...NERN STATES...
CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NERN STATES EARLY
SATURDAY BUT WILL PROBABLY CLEAR THE REGION IN TIME FOR AFTERNOON
HEATING. MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND ANTICIPATED HEATING WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG. AS THE IMPULSE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION MOVES OVER THE REGION BY LATE
AFTERNOON...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER ERN
NY/WRN NEW ENGLAND. ENVIRONMENT WILL BE STRONGLY SHEARED WITH 55
KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND BRIEF SUPERCELLS MAY RESULT WITH LARGE HAIL
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TOWARD THE COAST DURING
THE EVENING WITH RISKS FOR PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS.

...MID-ATLANTIC...
AT LEAST ISOLATED...DIURNALLY-ENHANCED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE LEE TROUGH/HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN PA AND WRN MD/VA ON
SATURDAY. REGION WILL REMAIN ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF 30-40 KTS OF
WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW...FAVORABLE FOR MULTICELL STORMS CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL.

...ERN CO...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE HIGHER CO TERRAIN AS ENE
UPSLOPE FLOW TRANSPORTS IMPROVING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS BEHIND A COLD FRONT. AN ISOLATED HIGH-BASED SUPERCELL STORMS
WITH LARGE HAIL/LANDSPOUT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
PALMER DIVIDE...DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING.

...NRN PLAINS...
A FEW STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS MID-LEVEL COLD POCKET ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AMPLIFYING TROUGH SPREADS ATOP RESIDUAL 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS.
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND SHOULD DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET.

...FL...
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG SEA
BREEZES...FAVORING THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
EXHIBIT COMPARATIVELY DRIER MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OVER FRIDAY. THIS
MAY YIELD AT LEAST ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

..RACY/SMITH.. 06/05/2010
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matute_bow
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Re: Tiempo severo EEUU riesgo moderado 5 junio 2010

Mensaje por matute_bow »

El problema actual de esto es que actualmente la zona bajo riesgo moderado esta con un mesosistema de la noche, así que pueden haber muchas modificaciones a lo largo del día producto de los frente de ráfagas y el aire "más fresco" que actualmente prevalece dentro de los mesosistemas, así que veremos....
"-cuando estábamos jugando yo y Kiko-.-el burro por delante-.-aaa, pase usted!- JAJAJAJAJAJA, amo el chavo!, ajajajaja
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matute_bow
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Re: Tiempo severo EEUU riesgo moderado 5 junio 2010

Mensaje por matute_bow »

Con riesgo de tornados arranca este día de tiempo severo en Estados Unidos. El tema es que los tornados watch estan en una zona MUY POCO afectada generalmente por estos fenómenos, como puede ser el NE del país.

SC ya se desarrollan en la zona, muy bueno la verdad! :D
No tiene los permisos requeridos para ver los archivos adjuntos a este mensaje.
"-cuando estábamos jugando yo y Kiko-.-el burro por delante-.-aaa, pase usted!- JAJAJAJAJAJA, amo el chavo!, ajajajaja
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federico
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Re: Tiempo severo EEUU riesgo moderado 5 junio 2010

Mensaje por federico »

estan re cerca de nueva york!!!!!!!!!!! me imagino un tornado tirando abajo la estatua de la libertad jajajajajajaj y depsues dicen que fueron los iranies que ahora controlan el clima jajajajajja
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arielmich
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Re: Tiempo severo EEUU riesgo moderado 5 junio 2010

Mensaje por arielmich »

Se pone linda la zona! :D :D

Tendrán toronjones ahi tambien? :lol: :lol:
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Siempre presente!
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matute_bow
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Re: Tiempo severo EEUU riesgo moderado 5 junio 2010

Mensaje por matute_bow »

Yo le apuesto a más tarde a la zona que seguro va a estar Reed, del Norte de Missouri, Sur de Iowa hacia el límite con el NE de Kansas, ahí le pongo mis fichas, pero más tarde, cuando haga 35 grados, ajajajajaja :D
"-cuando estábamos jugando yo y Kiko-.-el burro por delante-.-aaa, pase usted!- JAJAJAJAJAJA, amo el chavo!, ajajajaja
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matute_bow
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Re: Tiempo severo EEUU riesgo moderado 5 junio 2010

Mensaje por matute_bow »

Como me gustan cuando tienen que cambiar los watch, ajajajajaja

Había tirado un severe watch sobre porciones del Este de Ohio y y Oeste de Pensylvania, pero en las últimas horas superceldas tornádicas se formaron por esa zona (hay una que tiene un gancho tremendo ahora) y entonces??

Reemplazo de watch a tornados Watch sobre esas zonas, ajajaja :lol: :lol: , pero esta muy bien que hagan eso!

Les dejo el Watch

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 265
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
310 PM EDT SAT JUN 5 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EASTERN OHIO
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 310 PM UNTIL
900 PM EDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES WEST OF WHEELING
WEST VIRGINIA TO 35 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF LATROBE
PENNSYLVANIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 262...WW 263...WW 264...

DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ESEWD
ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY LOCATED IN ERN OH AND WRN PA. THIS
BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH STRONG INSTABILITY...MAY PROVIDE A CONTINUED
SOURCE FOR POSSIBLE TORNADO DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29030.
No tiene los permisos requeridos para ver los archivos adjuntos a este mensaje.
"-cuando estábamos jugando yo y Kiko-.-el burro por delante-.-aaa, pase usted!- JAJAJAJAJAJA, amo el chavo!, ajajajaja
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matute_bow
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Re: Tiempo severo EEUU riesgo moderado 5 junio 2010

Mensaje por matute_bow »

Esta si es mi zona!!!!!! :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: , a esta si que la sigo :D :D

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 266
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
350 PM CDT SAT JUN 5 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND EASTERN IOWA
WESTERN ILLINOIS
NORTHERN MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 350 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
DES MOINES IOWA TO 10 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF PEORIA ILLINOIS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 262...WW 263...WW
264...WW 265...

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS WERE LOCATED IN WESTERN IA
AND WERE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE SEWD AND BECOME ROOTED
INTO A VERY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 50 KT AND
STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE
HAIL. DESPITE SWLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...STRONGLY VEERING WINDS IN
THE LOWER 1-2 KM AND RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ALSO APPEARS
FAVORABLE FOR A FEW TORNADOES. LATE IN THE EVENING...THE OUTFLOWS
ARE LIKELY TO MERGE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SQUALL LINE WITH WIND
DAMAGE TO EVOLVE.
No tiene los permisos requeridos para ver los archivos adjuntos a este mensaje.
"-cuando estábamos jugando yo y Kiko-.-el burro por delante-.-aaa, pase usted!- JAJAJAJAJAJA, amo el chavo!, ajajajaja
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matute_bow
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Re: Tiempo severo EEUU riesgo moderado 5 junio 2010

Mensaje por matute_bow »

Que fantástica esta SC por favor, tiene un Tornado muy fuerte según el warning, pero noten en la animación como hace el rulito, impresionante. Tarde pero seguras las celdas....


A Tornado Warning remains in effect for central Peoria County
until 845 PM CDT...

At 811 PM CDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar and storm
spotters were tracking a large and extremely dangerous tornado. This
tornado was located about 2 miles south of Brimfield... or 15 miles
west of Peoria... moving east at 40 mph
No tiene los permisos requeridos para ver los archivos adjuntos a este mensaje.
"-cuando estábamos jugando yo y Kiko-.-el burro por delante-.-aaa, pase usted!- JAJAJAJAJAJA, amo el chavo!, ajajajaja
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matute_bow
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Re: Tiempo severo EEUU riesgo moderado 5/6 junio 2010

Mensaje por matute_bow »

Bueno, hoy si un tornado se nos lleva la estatua de la Libertad :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: , miren donde esta el riesgo moderado? :lol: :lol:

Pegue, y pegue frente frío pegue! :lol: :lol: :lol:

Day 1 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 am CDT sun Jun 06 2010


Valid 061300z - 071200z


..there is a MDT risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Middle Atlantic
States and southern New England...


..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms from the Tennessee Valley through the
central Appalachians into the northeast...


..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of S Georgia/northern Florida...


..There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the central hi
plains...


...
Lower Great Lakes shortwave trough will further amplify as it continues
east-southeast off the New England CST early Monday...while central/northern rockies ridge
progresses east into the hi plains. In the west...several low amplitude
disturbances will track east-northeast across the Pacific northwest/northern Great Basin as
upper high holds firm over southern nm. Southeast of the high...elongated trough
with at least two embedded impulses will persist from the northwestern Gulf
to northern Florida.


At lower levels...seasonably strong surface low now over S central New York will
continue east into southern New Hampshire by early afternoon...and into the Gulf of ME by
evening. Associated cold front should progress steadily east/southeast across the
eastern third of the nation through the period. The western portion of the
front...meanwhile...will become stationary over North Texas later today...and
will redevelop north to the central hi plains early Monday.


..cntrl Appalachians/middle Atlantic to southern/central New England...
A substantial severe weather event /damaging winds and a few
tornadoes/ remains possible today from southeastern New York and central/southern New
England SW through eastern PA/New Jersey to the Chesapeake Bay region...


Band of scattered thunderstorms...including semi-discrete supercells and broken
lines...expected to persist through later this morning along and
ahead of aforementioned cold front from southern New York SW into southern/central Ohio.
Despite unfavorable time of day...combination of 50-60 knots deep west-southwesterly
shear and fairly rich moisture return will maintain threat for
occasional tornadoes and locally damaging winds.
This threat should be greatest along and just S of surface wave along
the New York/PA border.


In response to surface heating and continued eastward motion/amplification of
upper trough...expect the frontal storms to increase in number and
strength later this morning and early this afternoon over parts of PA/WV
and southern Ohio. Other storms should form by midday along prefrontal
confluence axis/Lee trough from the Chesapeake Bay NE into New
England.


Strong wind field associated with Great Lakes trough /with 700 mb speeds
of 50-70 kts/...and increasing surface-based instability /SBCAPE to 2000
j per kg in MD/VA...and 1000 j per kg in New England/...should prove
favorable for scattered supercells/sustained storms with damaging wind and a
few tornadoes. This threat will be greatest from the Philadelphia
area NE into southern and perhaps central New England through early evening.


..TN valley/southern Appalachians into eastern Kentucky...NC...srn Virginia...
moderate to strong instability will develop with daytime heating
along portion of cold front crossing parts of KY/TN...and along
prefrontal trough over VA/NC. Middle/upper level flow and ascent will
increase over these areas as region is glanced by southern fringe of Great
Lakes trough. 35-40 knots west-northwesterly 700 mb winds could support organized
storms with damaging wind/hail...especially over northern parts
of the region. The severe threat could persist into middle evening in VA/NC.


..NW Texas to central hi plains...
Surface heating expected to generate strong instability /SBCAPE to 3000
j per kg/ in zone of weak deep shear along and just S of stalling
front over northwest Texas later today. Somewhat lesser cape /around 2000 j
per kg/ but greater deep shear will exist farther northwest into eastern
Colorado...on NE edge of nm upper high. Upslope over the Colorado foothills...and
weak convergence near front in Texas...expected to support scattered strong
afternoon storms over both regions. Pulse activity in Texas may yield severe
hail/locally damaging wind. Despite absence of appreciable large scale
forcing for ascent...a few supercells could form in eastern Colorado...given
40+ knots deep west-northwesterly shear with a substantial veering component in the
vertical and sustained upslope flow.


Late today or early this evening...additional storms should form over
western Nebraska...in area of strengthening warm air advection associated with
nocturnally-enhanced low level jet and passing disturbances in west-northwest flow over
the upper MS valley. This activity could evolve into a late night mesoscale convective system
posing a threat for severe hail and possibly damaging wind.


..S GA/FL...
Eastern member of elongated upper disturbance over the Gulf states likely
will affect location/timing of diurnally enhanced storms over Florida/S
Georgia and possibly coastal SC. 25-30 knots west-northwesterly middle level flow on S side of
trough may yield a few organized storms with locally damaging winds
through early evening.
No tiene los permisos requeridos para ver los archivos adjuntos a este mensaje.
"-cuando estábamos jugando yo y Kiko-.-el burro por delante-.-aaa, pase usted!- JAJAJAJAJAJA, amo el chavo!, ajajajaja