Huracán Frank (Pacífico)

[Cristofer]

Segun los modelos acá aprecera un huracan que creo que llegaria a categoria 1.

Les dejo imagenes satelitales y el pronostico para este sistema.

[Cristofer]

Y como era de preveer, este sistema llego a tormenta tropical, y aún le falta crecer, para llegar a huracan segun los pronosticos, por lo que se puede observar en las imagenes satelitales, tiene una muy buena conveccion

[matute_bow]

Son bastante peligrosos estos sistemas Cristo, porque estan muy cerca de tierra, y sus bandas de lluvia afectan a la zona costera de méxico, MUY MONTAÑOSA, y pueden producir toneladas de lluvias y deslizamientos de tierra!, así que habrá que seguirlo de cerca!

[LisandroSc]

Ojo con este sistema que esta mejorando rapidamente y su pico de intensidad cada parte aumenta!

Frank: 50kt - 1000mb

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/0300Z 14.0N 96.8W 50 KT
12HR VT 23/1200Z 14.2N 97.8W 60 KT
24HR VT 24/0000Z 14.6N 99.5W 65 KT
36HR VT 24/1200Z 15.2N 101.0W 70 KT
48HR VT 25/0000Z 15.7N 102.2W 75 KT
72HR VT 26/0000Z 16.7N 104.6W 75 KT
96HR VT 27/0000Z 17.7N 107.0W 70 KT
120HR VT 28/0000Z 18.5N 110.0W 70 KT

[LisandroSc]

A cambiarle el nombre del topic!

Huracan Frank: 65kt - 987mb

[arielmich]

Actualicemos un poco los datos sobre nuestro amigo FranK:

Viento: 75 MPH — Location: 17.0N 106.3W — Movement: WNW









Ultimo parte:


There had been little change in the organization of Frank through
much of the afternoon...although in the last hour or so the
beginnings of an eye became apparent. Dvorak satellite estimates at
18z were 65 kt and that will be the advisory intensity. The cyclone
has about 36-48 hours left over warm water...and with the shear
expected to remain relatively unchanged...some additional
strengthening seems likely. The official forecast is in good
agreement with the SHIPS and GFDL models...with the lgem and HWRF
showing little to no additional development. After 48 hours...a
gradual decay over cooler waters is expected.
It appears as though Frank is moving a little faster now...at
285/11. Frank is expected to continue west-northwestward for the
next couple of days around the southern periphery of a subtropical
ridge over northwestern Mexico. Later in the forecast period...
Frank should slow and turn northward in response to a large
mid-latitude trough forecast to dig southward off the West Coast of
the U.S. And Baja California. The model guidance has generally
shifted to the west and the official forecast is nudged in that
direction. There is a fair amount of spread in the guidance at days
4-5...with the GFDL and HWRF showing substantial eastward and
northward motion...respectively...and are possibly maintaining too
coherent a vortex at those ranges. The global models...and the
official forecast...suggest that a relatively weak cyclone will
move slowly within an ill-defined low-level steering flow.


Forecast positions and Max winds

initial 25/2100z 17.0n 106.3w 65 kt
12hr VT 26/0600z 17.4n 107.9w 70 kt
24hr VT 26/1800z 17.9n 109.7w 75 kt
36hr VT 27/0600z 18.5n 111.6w 75 kt
48hr VT 27/1800z 19.0n 113.0w 65 kt
72hr VT 28/1800z 20.5n 114.5w 55 kt
96hr VT 29/1800z 21.0n 114.5w 45 kt
120hr VT 30/1800z 22.0n 114.0w 30 kt